Winning the Stanley Cup would be easier than Winning the McDavid sweepstake

[btdvox]

I truly believe as it is, winning the Stanley Cup would be easier than winning the Connor McDavid sweepstakes, especially with our line up. With teams like Flames and Sabres with basically no NHL calibre players, I fail to see how we would even come close to Connor McDavid.

So quit talking about it!! We have a chance at getting into the playoffs, from there who knows what kind of momentum a team can go on. Who knows what kind of injuries will plague the "contenders".

Nobody knows, but we know we won't be as bad as some of the bottom feeding teams!

Click to read more...

 

[Intangibos]

I truly believe as it is, winning the Stanley Cup would be easier than winning the Connor McDavid sweepstakes, especially with our line up. With teams like Flames and Sabres with basically no NHL calibre players, I fail to see how we would even come close to Connor McDavid.

So quit talking about it!! We have a chance at getting into the playoffs, from there who knows what kind of momentum a team can go on. Who knows what kind of injuries will plague the "contenders".

Nobody knows, but we know we won't be as bad as some of the bottom feeding teams!

It's all about the lottery, baby.

 

[Addison Rae]

I think there's a much better chance we finish last. Long term injuries to Henrik Sedin and Dan Hamhuis and this team is right there in the sweepstakes.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

The percentages for finishing low aren't even as good as this year's was, let alone when the Oilers were walking into consecutive firsts.

 

[Shareefruck]

No way in hell this is true, IMO.

Even if a team is smack dab in the middle of the league, the cup isn't equidistant to them from the bottom. It's difficult to make moves to become good, the chances of making good enough moves to win a cup are really really bleak. The closer you get, each additional hurdle is exponentially tougher to over-come. And we aren't smack dab in the middle of the league-- right now we're crossing our fingers that the moves we've made will skyrocket us back to the middle of the league.

Making moves to get worse is easy. Making mistakes is easy. Having bad enough luck that you screw over your season is far more likely than having good enough luck to fluke your way to a cup.

I don't have any hope of getting McDavid, nor has that even been a factor towards me wanting the team to have a transition year. However, the team finished 6th last last season and while we've made changes, it's questionable whether or not this team even looks better on paper this year. It would not take a miracle for this team to have an awful year. It would take a miracle for this team to win a cup.

It's not even that unlikely that Calgary is better than us this season, IMO.

Isn't there a new rule where even the 17th place team has a shot at McDavid now anyways?

Again, I have no interest in advocating for a tank for McDavid initiative, but the premise of the OP is nowhere near true, IMO.

 

[vancityluongo]

I think there's a much better chance we finish last. Long term injuries to Henrik Sedin and Dan Hamhuis and this team is right there in the sweepstakes.

Sidney Crosby throws a fit and insists that he gets to play with Willie Desjardins in Vancouver - and will hold out if he doesn't - and we trade Nick Jensen and a first to get him. Boom cup.

 

[Addison Rae]

Sidney Crosby throws a fit and insists that he gets to play with Willie Desjardins in Vancouver - and will hold out if he doesn't - and we trade Nick Jensen and a first to get him. Boom cup.

Even then Sidney Crosby does not make the Canucks better then LA, Chicago or Boston. The Canucks just finished 25th in the NHL, there's a much better chance that they finish 30th then them winning the Cup.

 

[Shareefruck]

Even then Sidney Crosby does not make the Canucks better then LA, Chicago or Boston. The Canucks just finished 25th in the NHL, there's a much better chance that they finish 30th then them winning the Cup.

Even if the team finished 16th last year, they are still closer to the bottom of the league than the top, IMO. You're swimming upstream to win the cup as opposed to downstream to finish last. It's like saying it's easier to jump 30 feet than fall 30 feet. The whole idea is ludicrous.

 

[Amused To Death]

Seeing as we've never won a cup or drafted 1st overall, I feel this discussion is sort of moot. Neither will ever happen.

Still...try getting out of the west. Just try.

 

[CanadianPirate]

Even if the team finished 16th last year, they are still closer to the bottom of the league than the top, IMO. You're swimming upstream to win the cup as opposed to downstream to finish last. It's like saying it's easier to jump 30 feet than fall 30 feet. The whole idea is ludicrous.

I agree with this. The op also ignores injuries. I think it is much more likely that the canucks lose henrik and hamhuis (or two of any of their other top players) than suddenly being able to compete with the LAs and Chicagos of the league.

 

[Yung Rotini]

I truly believe as it is, winning the Stanley Cup would be easier than winning the Connor McDavid sweepstakes, especially with our line up. With teams like Flames and Sabres with basically no NHL calibre players, I fail to see how we would even come close to Connor McDavid.

So quit talking about it!! We have a chance at getting into the playoffs, from there who knows what kind of momentum a team can go on. Who knows what kind of injuries will plague the "contenders".

Nobody knows, but we know we won't be as bad as some of the bottom feeding teams!

Well that's just rude.

 

[Shareefruck]

I agree with this. The op also ignores injuries. I think it is much more likely that the canucks lose henrik and hamhuis (or two of any of their other top players) than suddenly being able to compete with the LAs and Chicagos of the league.

And again, realistically, we are a 25th place team hoping to get back to being a 15th place team or better right now. Whether you think it's a lock that we'll get there, that is the reality right now. You can't just jump the gun and say "we're a 15th place team, so we're 15 places away from being a 1st place team" before you even manage to actually look like a 15th place team! It makes no sense!

On paper, last year's team did not look much worse than this year's team (many would argue it looked better). If the injuries/other issues could happen last year, why is it a lock that it can't happen again? And even if they didn't, how can you be sure that that's a 10 spot jump? Especially taking into consideration that the players being relied on are still either staying in their prime or trending downwards and the fact that we still play in a devastating division (which may have been a bigger reason for our awful season than we're willing to admit).

Team A)
Sedin - Sedin - Jensen
Burrows - Kesler - Kassian
Higgins - Santorelli - Hansen
Booth - Richardson - Weise

Hamhuis - Garrison
Edler - Tanev
Stanton - Bieksa

Luongo
Lack

vs.

Team B)
Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Burrows - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Horvat - Hansen
Dorsett - Matthias - Richardson

Hamhuis - Tanev
Stanton - Bieksa
Edler - Sbisa

Miller
Lack

Not only is team A going to make a 10 spot jump from finishing 25th to 15th simply by using the nearly identical team B instead and hoping the same problems don't occur, apparently, in a league with 30 teams doing everything they can to try and win the cup, it's easier for this 25th, hopefully 15th place team (if everything goes well) to battle their way to a cup by outplaying all 29 other teams than to fall their way, ultimately from 25th to 30th, with any combination of things that could happen, like injuries, poor play, poor goaltending/defense, Kesler being a bigger hole than Bonino can fill, or another coaching adjustment issue.

 

[Havre]

Even if the team finished 16th last year, they are still closer to the bottom of the league than the top, IMO. You're swimming upstream to win the cup as opposed to downstream to finish last. It's like saying it's easier to jump 30 feet than fall 30 feet. The whole idea is ludicrous.

Would be easier to fall 30 feet than to jump even 1 wouldn't it? So not sure how that works.

I agree with the original post. In the last 3 finals we have seen both the Devils and the Rangers play even if they were in my opinion fairly mediocre teams. Anything can happen in the play-offs. LA could just as well have lost in the first round last year and NYR wouldn't even have been in it if they had played in the West.

To me the difference between the best and the 20th team in the NHL is quite small. However, there are always a couple of teams really struggling at the bottom so the difference between the 20th or maybe even 25th and the 30th can be quite significant.

 

[Shareefruck]

Would be easier to fall 30 feet than to jump even 1 wouldn't it? So not sure how that works.

Okay fine-- It's like saying it would be easier to swim 30 feet against the current than to swim 30 feet with the current. Happy?

 

[KeninsFan]

The difference isn't between a Stanley Cup vs McDavid. I'd take Eichel and the following 4-5 guys over finishing as a 1st round fodder.

 

[BrandonL]

Unlikely we are winning either, but hell will freeze over before Bettman awards Vancouver the #1 pick. It will be the Crosby draft scenario all over again, just with a different struggling American franchise.

 

[JuniorNelson]

This team will feature the Sedin line with an untried winger. They will be playing for an unfamiliar coach, in a new system. There is no credible second line, only projections on paper. I think it's a lot to ask of this pairing to carry the offense. Adding another thirty-three year old is almost comical. To be fair, Vrbata is nine months younger than the Sedins, so he is bringing some youth to the table.

It's possible the Canucks only look bad on paper. They might come roaring out of the gate and play five hundred hockey until the deadline. If they are earning a new reputation, they can continue to reshape the team. Adding at the deadline bouys confidence and they march into the playoffs (where anything can happen!).

The fact that it is even imaginable after last season is great. It's a real long shot, though. The Canucks roster is still little improved.

 

[BobbyJazzLegs]

And again, realistically, we are a 25th place team hoping to get back to being a 15th place team or better right now. Whether you think it's a lock that we'll get there, that is the reality right now. You can't just jump the gun and say "we're a 15th place team, so we're 15 places away from being a 1st place team" before you even manage to actually look like a 15th place team! It makes no sense!

On paper, last year's team did not look much worse than this year's team (many would argue it looked better). If the injuries/other issues could happen last year, why is it a lock that it can't happen again? And even if they didn't, how can you be sure that that's a 10 spot jump? Especially taking into consideration that the players being relied on are still either staying in their prime or trending downwards and the fact that we still play in a devastating division (which may have been a bigger reason for our awful season than we're willing to admit).

Team A)
Sedin - Sedin - Jensen
Burrows - Kesler - Kassian
Higgins - Santorelli - Hansen
Booth - Richardson - Weise

Hamhuis - Garrison
Edler - Tanev
Stanton - Bieksa

Luongo
Lack

vs.

Team B)
Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Burrows - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Horvat - Hansen
Dorsett - Matthias - Richardson

Hamhuis - Tanev
Stanton - Bieksa
Edler - Sbisa

Miller
Lack

I take slight offence to Team A. Jensen and Santo never played together. Santo was on the RW apart from a handful of games where he got some minutes on the 4th line - Richo had the 3C locked down. Kassian was rarely on the 2nd line. Higgins and Hansen were primarily on the 2nd line. Booth was on the 3rd line. Tom Sestito played 77 games. Overlooks the Dalpe/Lain/Archi/Welsh revolving door.

Unless you consider it a depth chart, but even then I don't think it's fairly representing what we had at the start of the year.

 

[Index]

Even then Sidney Crosby does not make the Canucks better then LA, Chicago or Boston. The Canucks just finished 25th in the NHL, there's a much better chance that they finish 30th then them winning the Cup.

It sure as hell would be fun to have him!

 

[keslerbomb]

I think we might be about as bad as last year. Replaced Kesler with Bonino, thats a downgrade at centre. Replaced Garrison with Sbisa, another downgrade. Miller/Luongo is about even in net. Only time will tell whether or not it was Torts coaching that made the Canucks play as poorly as they did.

 

[Wilch]

For this franchise? Probably.

It has failed to win the lottery or a cup in its 40 odd years of existence.

Pittsburgh and Chicago on the other hand, were able to win both within a decade.

 

[Verviticus]

Okay fine-- It's like saying it would be easier to swim 30 feet against the current than to swim 30 feet with the current. Happy?

no. this analogy is also bad.

 

[me2]

1st - 25.0% - Buffalo Sabres 51 points.
2nd - 18.8% - Florida Panthers 66 points.
3rd - 14.2% - Edmonton Oilers 67 points.
4th - 10.7% - Calgary Flames 77 points.
5th - 8.1% - NY Islanders 79 points.
6th - 6.2% - Vancouver Canucks 83 points.
7th - 4.7% - Carolina Hurricanes 83 points.
8th - 3.6% - Toronto Maple Leafs 84 points.
9th - 2.7% - Winnipeg Jets 84 points.
10th - 2.1% - Anaheim Ducks (via Ottawa) 88 points.
11th - 1.5% - New Jersey Devils (Forfeit pick but are included in the lottery) 88 points.
12th - 1.1% - Nashville Predators 88 points.
13th - 0.8% - Phoenix Coyotes 89 points.
14th - 0.5% - Washington Capitals 90 points.

2014 draft odds above. There should be slightly better odds for weaker picks this year. So I'd say Van's odds of mcdavid are higher than the SC

 

[NYVanfan]

1st - 25.0% - Buffalo Sabres 51 points.
2nd - 18.8% - Florida Panthers 66 points.
3rd - 14.2% - Edmonton Oilers 67 points.
4th - 10.7% - Calgary Flames 77 points.
5th - 8.1% - NY Islanders 79 points.
6th - 6.2% - Vancouver Canucks 83 points.
7th - 4.7% - Carolina Hurricanes 83 points.
8th - 3.6% - Toronto Maple Leafs 84 points.
9th - 2.7% - Winnipeg Jets 84 points.
10th - 2.1% - Anaheim Ducks (via Ottawa) 88 points.
11th - 1.5% - New Jersey Devils (Forfeit pick but are included in the lottery) 88 points.
12th - 1.1% - Nashville Predators 88 points.
13th - 0.8% - Phoenix Coyotes 89 points.
14th - 0.5% - Washington Capitals 90 points.

2014 draft odds above. There should be slightly better odds for weaker picks this year. So I'd say Van's odds of mcdavid are higher than the SC

I would say the odds are equivalent to making the finals.
Prior to Miller / Vrbata signings, maybe one round less.
This team was never bad enough to reliably finish in the bottom 3, and even then you're still gambling on the lottery.
I get that ppl are sore that we were good and blew a cup that should've been ours and are now mediocre. But you have to look at last season in the bigger picture - against back-to-back prez trophies, it was an anomaly.
Sure, we're not winning that again any time soon, but because last year was such a flaming ****storm doesn't mean that we are realistically all of a sudden an utter bottom feeder. The top line is too good, the D is too good, and even without Miller we had better goaltending than several...

so let go the tank dream, it was never real
plus that's for weiners anyway

 

[Scouter]

I like how fans use their teams based solely on how they look on paper, as to how well they will do in reality, when obviously the season isn't played on paper or the off-season, it's played for real, which means there are many factors that go into how well a team will actually do.