Winning the Stanley Cup would be easier than Winning the McDavid sweepstake

[MrShift4]

I am surprised I haven't seen a little Mexican girl suggesting we can do both yet

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

I truly believe as it is, winning the Stanley Cup would be easier than winning the Connor McDavid sweepstakes, especially with our line up. With teams like Flames and Sabres with basically no NHL calibre players, I fail to see how we would even come close to Connor McDavid.

So quit talking about it!! We have a chance at getting into the playoffs, from there who knows what kind of momentum a team can go on. Who knows what kind of injuries will plague the "contenders".

Nobody knows, but we know we won't be as bad as some of the bottom feeding teams!

Here I thought there may be some statistical evidence to support this.

I hear the jury is still out on science though.

----

Buffalo picked up a couple guys and I think they'll be better than last year. Where, the Canucks, with less depth on defense and lower end abilities in the center role, are not.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Would be easier to fall 30 feet than to jump even 1 wouldn't it? So not sure how that works.

I agree with the original post. In the last 3 finals we have seen both the Devils and the Rangers play even if they were in my opinion fairly mediocre teams. Anything can happen in the play-offs. LA could just as well have lost in the first round last year and NYR wouldn't even have been in it if they had played in the West.

To me the difference between the best and the 20th team in the NHL is quite small. However, there are always a couple of teams really struggling at the bottom so the difference between the 20th or maybe even 25th and the 30th can be quite significant.

You don't know how this would work ? Have you fallen 5-6 feet before ? Have you jumped 5-6 feet before ?

You can agree with the original post, but it's wrong and it's not subjective. It IS easier to finish last than it is to win the cup. The actual odds are better to finish last for the Canucks this year and that doesn't even factor in some other variables.

 

[Shareefruck]

I take slight offence to Team A. Jensen and Santo never played together. Santo was on the RW apart from a handful of games where he got some minutes on the 4th line - Richo had the 3C locked down. Kassian was rarely on the 2nd line. Higgins and Hansen were primarily on the 2nd line. Booth was on the 3rd line. Tom Sestito played 77 games. Overlooks the Dalpe/Lain/Archi/Welsh revolving door.

Unless you consider it a depth chart, but even then I don't think it's fairly representing what we had at the start of the year.

If we're looking at what we had on paper, it's not going to reflect what happened on the ice because of all the injuries that happened last year. My point is the personnel is similar, and that the injuries that decimated that team could just as easily happen to this one. It's easier to compare the best lineup that you can envision of both teams than it is to guess what an injured version of this lineup is going to look like.

Horvat hasn't made the team yet either.

 

[Shareefruck]

no. this analogy is also bad.

How's that? The road to winning should never be considered "easier" than the road to losing. Winning a cup should not be considered "easier" than tanking. It's an insult to how difficult/competitive the game is.

If the GM suddenly decides "Okay, we're going to do poorly and go for the blablabla sweepstakes now", and that's his goal for some silly reason, he easily can make moves that for certain would at least move the team backwards. Enough to win the sweepstakes depends on how far he's willing to go with that. GMs can do everything in their power to IMPROVE the team, let alone win the cup, and it might not happen. The team could do even worse despite this. It's hard to do, and it's hard to do right.

Certainly it's "easier" to freefall than go on a run. Doesn't mean we should do it, but certainly it's easier.

 

[CanaFan]

Disagree. 4-5 significant injuries and this team is at the bottom fighting for McDavid/Eichel.

We would need 4-5 significant injuries to Chicago, LA, Anaheim, and probably St.Louis and San Jose to have a clear enough path to the finals. What's that, 5 key injuries x 5 teams so about 25 key injuries would be needed.

5 injuries or 25? Which is more improbable?

The reality is we are much more likely to do neither, but it is simplistic to say they are equally likely to occur.

 

[Shareefruck]

I like how fans use their teams based solely on how they look on paper, as to how well they will do in reality, when obviously the season isn't played on paper or the off-season, it's played for real, which means there are many factors that go into how well a team will actually do.

Nobody's condemning/predicting how they WILL do, but if we're talking about which they're closer to at this point in time, it's a discussion about how things look at this current moment in time on paper. We're using phrases like "this would be surprising, this wouldn't, this would take a miracle, etc". The on paper argument was just another factor worth bringing up anyways, not the whole picture. How can that bother you?

Otherwise, it's just random optimism based on nothing.

 

[Seattle Totems]

The NHL is very close to changing the lottery system for the 2015 draft so that all non playoff teams have a more equal chance at drafting 1st.

The Canucks clearly have a much better shot of winning the lottery than the Stanley Cup this year considering that they picked 6th and have traded several key veterans from their lineup since then.

end thread

 

[Shareefruck]

The NHL is very close to changing the lottery system for the 2015 draft so that all non playoff teams have a more equal chance at drafting 1st.

The Canucks clearly have a much better shot of winning the lottery than the Stanley Cup this year considering that they picked 6th and have traded several key veterans from their lineup since then.

end thread

This too.

 

[ubiquitous]

The idea of cheering about finishing last before the season had even started is absolutely revolting. I can understand if we are at the bottom of the league come trade deadline but before a game has even been played? Yuck.

 

[Scouter]

No way in hell this is true, IMO.

Even if a team is smack dab in the middle of the league, the cup isn't equidistant to them from the bottom. It's difficult to make moves to become good, the chances of making good enough moves to win a cup are really really bleak. The closer you get, each additional hurdle is exponentially tougher to over-come. And we aren't smack dab in the middle of the league-- right now we're crossing our fingers that the moves we've made will skyrocket us back to the middle of the league.

Making moves to get worse is easy. Making mistakes is easy. Having bad enough luck that you screw over your season is far more likely than having good enough luck to fluke your way to a cup.

I don't have any hope of getting McDavid, nor has that even been a factor towards me wanting the team to have a transition year. However, the team finished 6th last last season and while we've made changes, it's questionable whether or not this team even looks better on paper this year. It would not take a miracle for this team to have an awful year. It would take a miracle for this team to win a cup.

It's not even that unlikely that Calgary is better than us this season, IMO.

Isn't there a new rule where even the 17th place team has a shot at McDavid now anyways?

Again, I have no interest in advocating for a tank for McDavid initiative, but the premise of the OP is nowhere near true, IMO.

In what universe is that possible, as of right now I mean who is going to score for them besides Monahan, who hasn't even hit his peak yet, he might get to 50 points, so I don't see this happening.

 

[Var]

Better chance of winning the cup. If we assume that Tortorella is largely responsible for everyone on the team having record worst years (and not some act of god), then we may still be looking at a very top tier team.

By the way, the Sedin's don't seem like the type of players to trail off quickly as they age. They're not reliant on speed or overpowering physical strength to do what they do. They're rarely injured.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

The difference isn't between a Stanley Cup vs McDavid. I'd take Eichel and the following 4-5 guys over finishing as a 1st round fodder.

That is my stance as well. Don't outright try to tank like Buffalo necessarily, but leave spots open for Jensen, Horvat, Corrado and Shinkaruk to take, pair them with our veterans and let the cards fall where they will. Perhaps explore the value of Hamhuis, but only make that move if the value is there.

Alas, we're going to try and claw into 8th.

 

[bo2shink*]

Here I thought there may be some statistical evidence to support this.

See, I do not believe for a second that you thought.

But sure, statistical, scientific evidence to to prove a belief. Best to keep quiet and be thought a ......

 

[bo2shink*]

The NHL is very close to changing the lottery system for the 2015 draft so that all non playoff teams have a more equal chance at drafting 1st.

I've only read that they will even out the odds amongst non playoff teams in 2015 to improve the higher placed teams then add teams some playoff teams in 2016.

More equal is a great phrase.

 

[bo2shink*]

The actual odds are better to finish last for the Canucks this year and that doesn't even factor in some other variables.

Hey, show me some science!! Then once you do, make sure you take into account that finishing last will give a team AT BEST a 25% chance of drafting #1. Ask Buffalo and Columbus how it works.

 

[ChilliBilly]

we have been a contending team for years, one horrible year and we are bottom feeders? How about the possibility that last year was the aberration, not the new norm. I am unjustifiably optommistic every year, but lets see how the year plays out with a new coach and GM and president, and a large change in personnel.

10 points more and we move up something like 11-12 spots in the standings.

10 points less and me move 2 spots to picking 4th. We had serious injury problems last year, and I for one think that Kesler's style of play is going to result in him declining faster than the Sedins.

In reality the stars aligned for us to drop and get the 6th pick overall, teams won meaningless games to pass us in the standings.

 

[Snatcher Demko]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Flames finish ahead of us. Not likely, but wouldn't be a shock.

Injuries would have to play a role, but it happens. Young teams like the Flames often surprise, and they have a decent stable of vets.

 

[Win One Before I Die]

People dreaming of McDavid need to wake up. It ain't happening.

/thread

 

[pahlsson]

I am surprised I haven't seen a little Mexican girl suggesting we can do both yet

why don't we have neither

-little mexican canucks fan

 

[fancouver]

Yes, just take a look at some lineups from Florida, Buffalo, Edmonton, and Calgary to start. They've all got great young players who will likely be stars (Huberdeau, Bjudstad, Reinhart, Bennett), but I don't think these players will outperform the Sedins next year.

 

[deckercky]

Isn't it 1/14 to win the McDavid sweepstakes for non-playoff teams this year? Way bigger chance than winning playoffs.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

no. this analogy is also bad.

It's perfect actually.

Putting effort into something/not putting effort into something.

Winning = putting effort / Not winning = not putting effort

Swimming upstream = effort / Swimming downstream = minimal effort

So much face palm here.

People dreaming of McDavid need to wake up. It ain't happening.

/thread

People dreaming of a cup being closer than McDavid, need to wake up.

/threadddddd !

Hey, show me some science!! Then once you do, make sure you take into account that finishing last will give a team AT BEST a 25% chance of drafting #1. Ask Buffalo and Columbus how it works.

Okay. The vegas odds of the Canucks winning the cup are worse than than those odds.

That was pretty easy.

And who said anything about finishing last? This is a winning the sweepstakes vs winning the cup thread.

The fact that there's a much better chance of a team that's outside of last place landing McDavid just helps the Canucks. You don't get it at all.

 

[bo2shink*]

Okay. The vegas odds of the Canucks winning the cup are worse than than those odds.

That was pretty easy.

And who said anything about finishing last? This is a winning the sweepstakes vs winning the cup thread.

The fact that there's a much better chance of a team that's outside of last place landing McDavid just helps the Canucks. You don't get it at all.

Lol, "science". Vegas odds? Ouija board? What are the Vegas odds of the Canucks drafting #1 overall? Not that tha would actually mean anything, but just curious.

And your last sentence is pure garbage. The BEST chance to get the #1 is to finish last.

 

[Shareefruck]

That is my stance as well. Don't outright try to tank like Buffalo necessarily, but leave spots open for Jensen, Horvat, Corrado and Shinkaruk to take, pair them with our veterans and let the cards fall where they will. Perhaps explore the value of Hamhuis, but only make that move if the value is there.

Alas, we're going to try and claw into 8th.

I agree with this as well. I'd go as far as saying that any top 10 pick would be worth it, IMO.