Winning the Stanley Cup would be easier than Winning the McDavid sweepstake

[Archangel]

Vancouver will be a playoff team this year

bet the farm on it

 

[Krnuckfan]

Lol, "science". Vegas odds? Ouija board? What are the Vegas odds of the Canucks drafting #1 overall? Not that tha would actually mean anything, but just curious.

And your last sentence is pure garbage. The BEST chance to get the #1 is to finish last.

The canucks are a crappy team. They aren't crappy enough to the pointing of contending with garbage such as Buffalo for the worst record in the league. The poster is saying that even if the canucks don't finish 30th overall there is still a chance that they win the lottery and get the 1st overall, do you finally understand?

The idea that the canucks are playoff contenders, let alone stanley cup contenders is laughable.

 

[Verviticus]

How's that? The road to winning should never be considered "easier" than the road to losing. Winning a cup should not be considered "easier" than tanking. It's an insult to how difficult/competitive the game is.

If the GM suddenly decides "Okay, we're going to do poorly and go for the blablabla sweepstakes now", and that's his goal for some silly reason, he easily can make moves that for certain would at least move the team backwards. Enough to win the sweepstakes depends on how far he's willing to go with that. GMs can do everything in their power to IMPROVE the team, let alone win the cup, and it might not happen. The team could do even worse despite this. It's hard to do, and it's hard to do right.

Certainly it's "easier" to freefall than go on a run. Doesn't mean we should do it, but certainly it's easier.

if you exist in a world where "ok we're going to do badly now" is a thing that happens and is socially acceptable, every other team can and also will do it. it's just as hard to lose a game where every team is getting the puck and putting it in their own net as it is to win a game where both teams are trying to win

you can't exempt the canucks from the realities of pride and reputation without doing it to other teams as well and then you run into a mess thats not realistic

 

[me2]

Lol, "science". Vegas odds? Ouija board? What are the Vegas odds of the Canucks drafting #1 overall? Not that tha would actually mean anything, but just curious.

And your last sentence is pure garbage. The BEST chance to get the #1 is to finish last.

so what are your best guesses for the team as is

making the playoffs %
winning the 1st round %
winning the 2nd round %
winning the WCF %
winning the SCF %

 

[CanaFan]

if you exist in a world where "ok we're going to do badly now" is a thing that happens and is socially acceptable, every other team can and also will do it. it's just as hard to lose a game where every team is getting the puck and putting it in their own net as it is to win a game where both teams are trying to win

you can't exempt the canucks from the realities of pride and reputation without doing it to other teams as well and then you run into a mess thats not realistic

Way I see it, no team has won the cup 3 years in a row since the 1980-1983 Islanders.

Pretty sure I can name a team that has managed that feat for 1st overall quite recently.

Seems clear which one is "easier" once a GM puts his mind to it.

 

[deckercky]

Way I see it, no team has won the cup 3 years in a row since the 1980-1983 Islanders.

Pretty sure I can name a team that has managed that feat for 1st overall quite recently.

Seems clear which one is "easier" once a GM puts his mind to it.

The odds have changed several times for the worst recently though. We don't even know what the odds are this year, but I doubt they're much better than 15% for the 30th place team.

 

[Wilch]

The odds have changed several times for the worst recently though. We don't even know what the odds are this year, but I doubt they're much better than 15% for the 30th place team.

Where did 15% come from?

And if any year is a good year to nerf the odds for the 30th placed team to win the lottery, it would be a year where a Canadian team like the Canucks are guaranteed to finish in the bottom 3.

I have a feeling the nerf is coming in the next few years.

 

[deckercky]

15% is a guess.

http://blogs.buffalonews.com/sabres...sabres-chances-of-getting-connor-mcdavid.html

"While the proposed new odds were unavailable, they would be compressed and give the 30th-place club a smaller chance of winning and the 17th-place team a greater chance."

Any balance of the odds has to come right from the top.

 

[me2]

Where did 15% come from?

And if any year is a good year to nerf the odds for the 30th placed team to win the lottery, it would be a year where a Canadian team like the Canucks are guaranteed to finish in the bottom 3.

I have a feeling the nerf is coming in the next few years.

I think it is about 19% or there abouts for 2015. What is promising is that it appears picks 1, 2 and 3 will be available for the lottery in 2016, this helps teams that suck but aren't balls out tanking - could benefit the canucks.

 

[bossram]

Even if we end up drafting something like 10th, that gives us a ~2% chance to win the lottery. I really doubt our actual chances to win the Cup this season are >2%. They're more likely in the range of 0.01%.

 

[Hammer79]

I think winning a round should be their goal this season. I don't expect a repeat of last season at all. The only way to tank for McDavid would be to make it obvious that we're tanking (ie throwing games), and you can bet the league would make an example out of us. There's too much veteran presence in this line-up to drop to last overall.

 

[alternate]

Odds of winning the Cup in the off season any given year: 1/30
Odds of winning the lottery in the off season any given year: 1/30

/thread

 

[Wilch]

It doesn't benefit the Canucks much, because the odds are still in overwhelming favour of the bottom teams.

Generally speaking, these kind of reforms will shave the cream off the top and pad it on the bottom.

The guys stuck in the middle of the lottery (20th~25th ranked teams) don't benefit nearly as much on both a relative and nominal basis.

On the subject of the system...

15% is unlikely, that's a 40% reduction from 25%.

I'm expecting a 20% reduction, giving the worst team a 20% chance odds to win the lottery.

I still prefer having a system with multiple components in evaluating the team's needs rather than a simple % system.

 

[me2]

Even if we end up drafting something like 10th, that gives us a ~2% chance to win the lottery. I really doubt our actual chances to win the Cup this season are >2%. They're more likely in the range of 0.01%.

I have them at about 0.6% to win the SC.

 

[Shareefruck]

if you exist in a world where "ok we're going to do badly now" is a thing that happens and is socially acceptable, every other team can and also will do it. it's just as hard to lose a game where every team is getting the puck and putting it in their own net as it is to win a game where both teams are trying to win

you can't exempt the canucks from the realities of pride and reputation without doing it to other teams as well and then you run into a mess thats not realistic

But it's still "easier" to free-fall unintentionally than it is succeed intentionally.

If you do any number of things wrong or slip up in any number of ways, it can cause you to plummet-- Everything has to go right in order for you to succeed, IMO.

I'm sticking with the against the tide with the tide thing.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Winning the Stanley Cup would be easier if we had McDavid for many years, hows that.