Pre-Game Talk: Wings vs. Nucks 10/24

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Cyborg Yzerman just talked me off the ledge. Guy is good.

It's hard to not be sardonic in the face of the overwhelming nihilistic attitude around here the past few days, but I think it's really important for people to understand what we have.

Zetterberg and Datsyuk are old and showing their age in different ways, but as far as players their age go? They're the best in the league.

We have an incredible supporting cast, a mix of strong possession and scoring monsters in Goose and Tats, grit with a bit of scoring touch in Gator and Helm, size and depth in Sheahan, and a solid 4th line foundation in Miller, Glendening, Ferraro, and Andersson.

We have tons of young guys who will fill out the depth of the team, even if half of them don't pan out, a lot will: Jurco, Pulkkinen, AA, Holmstrom, Bertuzzi, Nosek.

And then we have Mantha and Svechnikov, who along with Larkin, seem poised to fill out the top 6 with elite talent.

Defense is a problem, but not beyond repair and hope.

Mrazek and Howard are a top 3 tandem in the league(in the sense of literal tandems)

There's a lot to be optimistic about.

 

[Bench]

There's a lot to be optimistic about.

I agree. I think things are trending the right direction, ultimately. I'm mainly disgruntled with the seemingly endless inability to fix the blueline, but overall the team is younger and faster than it has been in some time. And lots of skill players to boot. And a coach that might actually let the chains off the younger skilled guys.

Things may be a bit more turbulent for the Wings this year than years past, but that doesn't mean they are heading the wrong direction.

 

[8snake]

The Red Wings have an incredibly deep offensive unit that is just not firing on all cylinders yet.

I'm always critical and quick to dissent with various opinions on here, I am quick to criticize Holland, Babcock, the defense, whomever, so I say this as an argumentative user.

This has happened in the past, and will happen in the future.

And when I say the past, I mean the near past.

I don't remember if it was Soupnazi or Argarbar who said this team will be a playoff team, and was immediately attacked by other users for using the "P" word, but the fact is, this is a good team that will make the playoffs.

Let's focus on some context here.

As the season dwindled, through the ebbs and flows of last season, Datsyuk and Tatar finished top 5 in corsi and were absolutely dominate. It's important to note that one of those players is not playing right now. The other seems to have a history of starting out slowly in October.

Then we have Zetterberg and Nyquist, two of the best power play players in the league, who are still performing very well through the first month of the season.

Then we have Riley Sheahan, who is a defensively responsible middle 6 player who will slowly put up something resembling 0.4-0.5 points per game this year, and do so well.

Then we have Dylan Larkin, who's clearly got the "IT" factor.


The season is long, guys, there's still over 70 games left to play. Look at Anaheim and Pittsburgh right now, this sort of thing happens all the time. Teams and players go through streaks, it's the nature of a long season.

Our possession numbers and shots on goal aren't good, you're right, but we have a brand new coach who is growing acclimated to his roster and his team, and the team's just coming out of the gate slow.

If we win tonight, we'll above 500 and will have received 3 out 6 points out of a tough road trip.

What I'm saying is, let's not lose our heads and minds here.

This team really is a playoff team, barring excessive injuries, and I know the last several games are rough, but we had stretches like that even with Bowman, let alone Babcock. Please, think about these things scientifically and with some context and scope.


We have a great prospect pool, top 5 in the league, a great offensive line up, and great goalies. We have a coach with a lot of potential, and a few good defensive pieces.


Remember, it is October, it is not even January, let alone April. Despite the team's starting woes, we are still 3-3-1. Wait til the team gets into gear, and you'll see a top 3 team in the Atlantic.

It'll be alright, guys, I assure you, and that is regardless of tonight's outcome.

All will be well.

A lot of hope in that post. That's the beauty of fan message boards. Some view a team's prospects for the season through the prism of hope and optimism, others use actual game analysis. Time will tell who's perspective is closer to how things actually play out.

 

[Bench]

A lot of hope in that post. That's the beauty of fan message boards. Some view a team's prospects for the season through the prism of hope and optimism, others use actual game analysis. Time will tell who's perspective is closer to how things actually play out.

It's basically impossible the team will play this bad all year. We know these players well enough to know that it isn't a lottery team. So "actual game analysis" after a handful of games might mislead you far more than the most shining optimism.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

A lot of hope in that post. That's the beauty of fan message boards. Some view a team's prospects for the season through the prism of hope and optimism, others use pessimism. Time will tell who's perspective is closer to how things actually play out.

I believe that's what you really meant.

Firstly, statistics through the first 10 games are hardly conducive to a season's outlook.

I watched the Flyers-Bruins game on I think Wednesday night?

Boston lead the league in Power Play success at the time, you think that'll hold up through the season? I will bet you anything they're bottom third by April.

Same with analytics, I'm a huge thumper for fancy stats, but through 10 games?

Point is, all the sample sizes are too damn small.

Bench is right, we know this team well enough to know what to expect.


That's the entire point of my original and follow up post, we have 7/8ths of the season to go! And the team is grossly underperforming, and STILL .500.

Back away from the cliff, all will be well. Wait until we go on a 4-5 game winning streak, people will be proclaiming us Stanley Cup champions.


Do you guys remember that incredible streak we had last year where Babcock said it was the best team he's had since 2009 and everyone was as happy as a clam and then we went on a terrible streak almost immediately after that?

That is NHL hockey. This losing streak will not be our last this year, but we'll have several winning streaks to balance it out. Every team does.

 

[8snake]

It's basically impossible the team will play this bad all year. We know these players well enough to know that it isn't a lottery team. So "actual game analysis" after a handful of games might mislead you far more than the most shining optimism.

We know what? The team's best players are in their mid to late 30's. Their blue line remains suspect. They have a new coaching staff. Tatar and Gus haven't proven to be models of consistency at this point in their careers. There are a ton of variables even though this is mostly the same team from a personnel standpoint. This team looks closer to a lottery team than a contender, and while I do believe their ceiling is a bit higher I think on average this is still a mediocre team. Actual game analysis certainly serves as a more reliable reference point for me, but to each their own.

 

[Actual Thought*]

A lot of hope in that post. That's the beauty of fan message boards. Some view a team's prospects for the season through the prism of hope and optimism, others use actual game analysis. Time will tell who's perspective is closer to how things actually play out.

Wait a minute. I think these guys are on to something. Did anyone think Carolina would demolish us? Did anybody predict the lowly Oilers would humiliate use? Did analysis predict we would lose to the mighty Flames? Dreams really do come true!

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

We know what? The team's best players are in their mid to late 30's.

And still performing incredibly well. Datsyuk was one of the best corsi and possession players in the league last year, still had tons of takeaways too.

Their blue line remains suspect.

While that's absolutely true, and there's tons of problems, it's not beyond repair.

They have a new coaching staff.

Who will grow and learn with our young team.

Tatar and Gus haven't proven to be models of consistency at this point in their careers.

No second liner is, but Tatar was a goal shy of 30 last year, and they both are good for basically 60 points. The point leader had 87 last year, that's pretty damn good. Not many players better on the PP than Goose and Tatar was also a top 5 corsi player in the league last year.

There are a ton of variables even though this is mostly the same team from a personnel standpoint.

Of course there are tons of variables, but looking at their possession, PDO, and collective CF% 5 on 5 CLOSE last year, the team is good, playoff good.

This team looks closer to a lottery team than a contender, and while I do believe their ceiling is a bit higher I think on average this is still a mediocre team. Actual game analysis certainly serves as a more reliable reference point for me, but to each their own.

You literally have nothing to back that up. And any data you're using from this season? I promise you any statistician would disregard for its sample size being too small.

The season is too young to draw any conclusions, but based off your own statement, the personnel being largely the same, and last year's data, it's safe to conclude that this team will likely be a playoff team.

 

[Yemack]

It's basically impossible the team will play this bad all year. We know these players well enough to know that it isn't a lottery team. So "actual game analysis" after a handful of games might mislead you far more than the most shining optimism.

I dont think it's fair to criticize hardcore hockey fans who find joy at looking at smaller details than alot of hockey fans can see.

Things just dont improve magically by sleeping on it. Do you think Blashill is going to be 'ah it's gonna be JUST fine'? or do you think he is using 'actual game analysis' to try to find solution?

maybe Blashill should take your advice that this team is virtually lock to make playoff. so he wont lose sleep over it

 

[obey86]

Would I prefer the Wings play well and make the playoffs this season? You bet.

But missing the playoffs and having a ~top 10 pick for the first time in 20+ seasons wouldn't exactly be the worst thing possible.

 

[korrowan]

Come on, man. Believe in something.

I believe this team is poorly coached and blows. That is something right?

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I believe this team is poorly coached and blows. That is something right?

What do you base that on? Why do you feel that way? What is your basis for those conclusions?

 

[TheMule93]

What do you base that on? Why do you feel that way? What is your basis for those conclusions?

I'm going to guess the play of our team this season relative to least season, despite having an improved roster including an offensive RHD, a 2/3C, and a rookie contending for the calder

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I'm going to guess our entire season so far.

How many games has that been?

Does the worse start by the Ducks and the Penguins mean the same thing? Is peril looming around every corner?

Or does the same thing happen every year to several good teams who eventually turn it around because the season isn't <10 games, it's 82 games?

As you point out in your modified post, this team is better than it was last year, give it time. It is October.

 

[Bench]

I dont think it's fair to criticize hardcore hockey fans who find joy at looking at smaller details than alot of hockey fans can see.

Things just dont improve magically by sleeping on it. Do you think Blashill is going to be 'ah it's gonna be JUST fine'? or do you think he is using 'actual game analysis' to try to find solution?

maybe Blashill should take your advice that this team is virtually lock to make playoff. so he wont lose sleep over it

I'm using "actual game analysis" from many years to tell me the Wings will level off. I've seen all of these players play hundreds of times, so I feel like I have a pretty good grasp it's not a bottom 5 team like the numbers show. And it's on them to change that, and I think they will, since I've seen them do it before.

Even if you assume Blashill is the worst coach in the world, the players (and goalies) have shown many times they are good enough to put this team in the hunt for the playoffs.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I'm using "actual game analysis" from many years to tell me the Wings will level off. I've seen all of these players play hundreds of times, so I feel like I have a pretty good grasp it's not a bottom 5 team like the numbers show. And it's on them to change that, and I think they will, since I've seen them do it before.

Even if you assume Blashill is the worst coach in the world, the players (and goalies) have shown many times they are good enough to put this team in the hunt for the playoffs.

We could always hire Dave Lewis again, his team made the playoffs right?

 

[Yemack]

How many games has that been?

Does the worse start by the Ducks and the Penguins mean the same thing? Is peril looming around every corner?

Or does the same thing happen every year to several good teams who eventually turn it around because the season isn't <10 games, it's 82 games?

well he's free to believe in whatever.

I've seen smart people invest large amt of money on less available information.

At this point, I think this board has right mix or optimist vs pessimist vs 'dont give a **** what happens later' crowd. so no need to really pile on people in my opinion. either one of the first two crowd is going to eat a bowl of crow at the end of the season regardless

 

[Yemack]

I'm using "actual game analysis" from many years to tell me the Wings will level off. I've seen all of these players play hundreds of times, so I feel like I have a pretty good grasp it's not a bottom 5 team like the numbers show. And it's on them to change that, and I think they will, since I've seen them do it before.

Even if you assume Blashill is the worst coach in the world, the players (and goalies) have shown many times they are good enough to put this team in the hunt for the playoffs.

well what you are using isn't 'acutal game analysis' strictly speaking. more of an inference based on experience.

as for your second point, I dont necessarily believe that's true but I dont really want to talk about Blashill's coaching credential or overall capability. I'm more interested in what happened last night (which he did a poor job) and what's going to happen tonight (which remains to be seen).

maybe at 20-40 game marks, I will have some idea how what he is as an NHL coach. 1 game or 10 game stretch doesn't make you a bad coach but 1 bad game of terrible performance can definitely earn a boatful of criticism. Like I said, just because we shouldnt really jump the gun does not mean he is immune to criticism after poor performance. likewise, 1 good game does not make him a good coach but should earn him alot of praise for what he did.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

well he's free to believe in whatever.

I'm not Darkseid, Yemack, I'm not trying to find the anti-life equation and take away free will.

I've seen smart people invest large amt of money on less available information.

Lots of that is luck and premonition.

At this point, I think this board has right mix or optimist vs pessimist vs 'dont give a **** what happens later' crowd. so no need to really pile on people in my opinion. either one of the first two crowd is going to eat a bowl of crow at the end of the season regardless

I think it's important to at least provide a little context here, I know being a fan right now isn't fun because of how bad we are playing, but I'm just trying to clarify that it's not going to stay like this forever.

But when the time comes, everyone can share:

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

well what you are using isn't 'acutal game analysis' strictly speaking. more of an inference based on experience.

as for your second point, I dont necessarily believe that's true but I dont really want to talk about Blashill's coaching credential or overall capability. I'm more interested in what happened last night (which he did a poor job) and what's going to happen tonight (which remains to be seen).

maybe at 20-40 game marks, I will have some idea how what he is as an NHL coach. 1 game or 10 game stretch doesn't make you a bad coach but 1 bad game of terrible performance can definitely earn a boatful of criticism. Like I said, just because we shouldnt really jump the gun does not mean he is immune to criticism after poor performance. likewise, 1 good game does not make him a good coach but should earn him alot of praise for what he did.

Sure, a lot of this is true. But a lot of posts this week have been incredibly hyperbolic with talks of the team being in the draft lottery, etc. etc. etc.

As you basically say, the sample size is too small, and it's difficult to draw a thoughtful conclusion based off the first 7 games of the season.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Zetterberg and Datsyuk are old and showing their age in different ways, but as far as players their age go? They're the best in the league

I was just thinking last night that Zetterberg is just an unreal playmaker. As he's slowed down over the years, he's gotten better at seeing those kinds of plays. I really think he's on par with the Joe Thorntons of the league. So maybe he's a different player than before, but I'm not sure he's a much worse player.

 

[Yemack]

Sure, a lot of this is true. But a lot of posts this week have been incredibly hyperbolic with talks of the team being in the draft lottery, etc. etc. etc.

As you basically say, the sample size is too small, and it's difficult to draw a thoughtful conclusion based off the first 7 games of the season.

exactly. wise as always CY.

in my opnion, it's kinda waste of energy focusing on extreme opinions. Besides, it's a sports forum. passions are aplenty and stupid things will be said. it's not necessarily a bad thing .. in my humble opinion. and let's face it we are not really going to change their opinon. well.. maybe it's just my style but I dont really pay attention and take them too seriously. I find it entertaining to read people flip out though. no need to get fixated on it and make a sweeping generalization which would create ********* on its own.

 

[Actual Thought*]

I dont think it's fair to criticize hardcore hockey fans who find joy at looking at smaller details than alot of hockey fans can see.

Things just dont improve magically by sleeping on it. Do you think Blashill is going to be 'ah it's gonna be JUST fine'? or do you think he is using 'actual game analysis' to try to find solution?

maybe Blashill should take your advice that this team is virtually lock to make playoff. so he wont lose sleep over it

I think he is going to use analysis and try to fix it. Unfortunately I don't have much confidence that he is capable of doing so at this time.

His system seems misguided. NHL players just don't let you skate the puck around.
He seems to be very concerned with getting everybody ice time regardless of whether or not it is deserved.

He seemed to reward Smith for failure by rewarding him with PP time.

None of his adjustments, line combos, or match ups seem to make any substantial improvement.

He had "Greatness is a daily choice" painted on the wall in the locker room. If you think about it that is an incredibly ****ing pretentious thing to do. Does he actually believe that? Because if he does that means he believes he has made that choice on a daily basis and by extension he believes he has himself achieved greatness. If not he is placing a shiny example of his own failure in front of the players every day.

 

[Yemack]

I think he is going to use analysis and try to fix it. Unfortunately I don't have much confidence that he is capable of doing so at this time.

His system seems misguided. NHL players just don't let you skate the puck around.
He seems to be very concerned with getting everybody ice time regardless of whether or not it is deserved.

He seemed to reward Smith for failure by rewarding him with PP time.

None of his adjustments, line combos, or match ups seem to make any substantial improvement.

He had "Greatness is a daily choice" painted on the wall in the locker room. If you think about it that is an incredibly ****ing pretentious thing to do. Does he actually believe that? Because if he does that means he believes he has made that choice on a daily basis and by extension he believes he has himself achieved greatness. If not he is placing a shiny example of his own failure in front of the players every day.

some of your points, I sort of agree but ... I dont know if I'm being honest, I think you are nitpicking too much such as 'greatness is daily choice' thing. I think you are reading too much into it. just my opinion.

we will see though. hopefully you are wrong and he succeeds?

 

[Kronwalled55]

Am I missing something? 3-3-1 over a 7 game stretch isn't the end of the world. It's the NHL, teams like Edmonton, Carolina, and Calgary can beat you any night. There's a new coach, they're missing their best forward, injuries keep juggling the defensive pairings, and they still have points in the majority of those games. There are teams Detroit should beat that they won't, and there's going to be games that look bleak but they'll win anyways. I think tonight will be one of those. Calm down guys.