To be honest, I'm not really doing a victory lap with the rest of you then. The AAV is pretty good for our 1C, but I'd have much preferred an 8 year deal for more money (I'd have even preferred something like 8x8), or a deal that leaves him as an RFA at the end. We only bought one UFA year and 6 million is a lot of money for 4 RFA years and 1 UFA.
Winning in the cap era is largely about abusing RFA and ELC rights and we've set ourselves up to lose or overpay Larkin after this contract. I don't think the savings of a couple million during these next 5 years is worth the situation we're looking at when this contract is up. Overpaying now for a bargain in years 4-8 when we're competitive would have been worth it IMO. Or taking a shorter deal that let's us negotiate with an RFA after this contract to keep the AAV reasonable afterwards would have also been better.
That being said Larkin is an awesome player and I'm happy to have him. I just think this was essentially the worst case scenario besides a 4 year deal (or a 5 year with higher AAV).
I agree. I think there's a boatload of risk depending on what kind of player Larkin ends up and/or where the team is at in 4/5 years.
If Larkin ends up a competent #1C over the next 4/5 years and can now become a UFA prior to the age of 27 (an extremely rare occurrence), he'll pretty much be able to name his price and term starting on 7/1/22. His agent will be well aware that other teams will be happy to offer 8 years at close to league max in those 5 days prior to 7/1/23. The Red Wings will have no leverage other than "but it's your home town!"
To me it's almost like they looked at the Tavares signing this summer and completely ignored what happened to the Isles, while only looking at the fact that in the end JT couldn't resist taking a slight discount to play for the team he grew up rooting for.
Sure, in 5 years all of the Red Wings current medium to large and especially "bad" contracts will be either long gone or just expiring. That's said, it's hard to imagine this team having a truckload of cap space to overpay Larkin if they start to turn things around in that period of time, and especially if Holland or someone of his ilk is still incharge:
-If they're still around, the young guys that are on the roster now and slightly older than Larkin (IE Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi, etc.) will all be in their UFA eligible years, where Holland and Co. like to be especially generous after years of stingy bridge deals (See Abdelkader/Helm/Ericsson/Glendenning/DeKeyser).
-In addition, if they are indeed in the mix at that time, current prospects like Zadina, Rasmussen, Hronek, Cholowski, Veleno, etc. will be in various states of either getting paid big because they stepped right in and became key guys, on a bridge deal, or coming out of their ELC and needing a raise on a bridge deal.
-I'd also bet that unless he or the team are an absolute train wreck at that point, DeKeyser probably gets some kind of extension when his current deal expires.
-At that point Abdelkader probably becomes Cleary 2.0, getting overpaid to skate on the 4th line or hang out in the lockerroom because the team/coaches thinks he's great to have around regardless.
-If the team starts trending up by getting close to or making the playoffs in the next 4/5 seasons, I'm sure they'll be tempted to start dipping back into the UFA market. Especially if they have some holes in their line-up at G, D or C...
