GDT: Wings @ Sabres | Jack Hughes Edition

obey86

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Jun 9, 2009
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Yes , Trouba . If we going to be good next year it makes sense, but if not it's bit risky. Next draft going to be very good and we probably will regret this move

Maybe, but if you want to get that young top pairing defensemen but don't want to have to draft one and wait 5 years for them to develop, you're going to have to make a trade like that giving up significant assets.
 

obey86

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Jun 9, 2009
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I just want everyone to be aware that only 13 players in the NHL have more ES goals than AA this year.

I believe he is one of the best ES scorers on a per minute basis over the last 3 years combined. Like top 10 in the league good. Could be wrong though.
 

Snuggs

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Jun 24, 2018
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Yep because that's exactly what I said. I was saying that if you and the org doesn't think he's a 2C... the Wings will likely go out and sign a guy to a contract you will hate. So if you are already in a mindset that you want them to lose come hell or high water, wouldn't you want to keep a guy who is cheaper and not lock yourself into another Nielsen contract (as that's the kind of deal and player they'd probably go after for the role.

I'm not crowning him anything. I'm saying that for those upset about the Wings winning a few here and there, it would make sense because we'd be a weaker team because he's ill fit for the role and it keeps you from a 5x6 deal for someone you're bound to ***** about.




But they won. I just don't see the point of "oh, but it would be so nice if they had lost!"

Ok, well the first part. I want them to lose to hell or highwater for the remainder of THIS YEAR. Next season I actually want them to field a competitive team out on the ice. That can happen with a high pick top 2(which they are screwing up and the reason for my posts). An a couple of good signings. I really believe that. Obviously... How much money, the player, and his age even all matter. If they went an signed Hayes anywhere around 5-4.5 million per, who would REALLY hate it? The second line would all the sudden be legit with AA/Hayes/ top pick/Zadina/random UFA.

Now, what I'm worried is they'll sign veterans to fill roles on the team, and "crown" AA as a legit 2nd line center when I pointed out I'm not buying it.

What I would like is for them to keep AA, get a top 2 pick, sign two nice FA's and see how competitive they can be for `19-`20.

That's fine you don't see the point in them losing tough games. I rationalized it for you a few times, in that they'll insure a higher pick at the very least, Winning last night game swung things around to where they'll likely fall draft position than gain draft position. It's legit that they have around 70% chance to fall below 4th in the draft.

Eskieal almost explained it well but I can't rationalize why he'd like to see wins just cause players are doing well. It's costing the franchise literally. Then he lost me when he went the the extreme other side and said and acted like I wanted to see players do bad and whine about that too, which would be true if they're doing bad, but they're not, I'm not sitting bashing the guys he pointed out in his post. Like I said, 5-4 loss was still a good game to watch last night was it not? The win literally is costing us draft position which to me is important when Wings were slotted at 3rd with a chance to go higher even. It's not like we're sitting in 10th, and a healthy team next year makes us better. We need that top talent in the draft, bad.
 
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TheOtherOne

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Jan 2, 2010
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I believe he is one of the best ES scorers on a per minute basis over the last 3 years combined. Like top 10 in the league good. Could be wrong though.
I don't doubt it but now I'm curious how one would find this stat. As far as I know, nhl.com does not have a "ESG/60" column, and even if they did I don't think you can combine years.

EDIT: My mistake, you can combine years.
 

obey86

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Jun 9, 2009
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I don't doubt it but now I'm curious how one would find this stat. As far as I know, nhl.com does not have a "ESG/60" column, and even if they did I don't think you can combine years.

EDIT: My mistake, you can combine years.

Over the last 3 seasons combined compared to all forwards who have played at least 1100 minutes, AA is 4th in the NHL in goals/60 minutes at even strength. Per Corsica

Only Debrincat, Arvidsson, and Matthews are ahead of him. Marchand, Skinner, Tarasenko, Kucherov, Boeser, and Guentzel round out the top 10.
 

Winger98

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Feb 27, 2002
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Eskieal almost explained it well but I can't rationalize why he'd like to see wins just cause players are doing well. It's costing the franchise literally. Then he lost me when he went the the extreme other side and said and acted like I wanted to see players do bad and whine about that too, which would be true if they're doing bad, but they're not, I'm not sitting bashing the guys he pointed out in his post. Like I said, 5-4 loss was still a good game to watch last night was it not? The win literally is costing us draft position which to me is important when Wings were slotted at 3rd with a chance to go higher even. It's not like we're sitting in 10th, and a healthy team next year makes us better. We need that top talent in the draft, bad.

There's only so much the Wings can do outside of out and out throwing games, though. Even with the Wings playing hard and playing well, San Jose and Vegas should still beat them. They are just better teams. It's sort of frustrating to have such a lousy season and then seeing the Wings tack on some wins now, but I don't think you can tell guys not to try or just arbitrarily sit your best players to try to ensure a loss. And look at the roster. The Wings are sending out guys like McIlrath, Witter, Kuffner, Hirose, etc. I'm not saying these guys are crap (though 3/4 of them probably shouldn't be in the NHL at any point right now) but they clearly aren't sending out the 02 Wings team here.

We're at a point in the season where we probably need to just enjoy the remaining games for what they are and hope for some lotto luck for a change. It'd be nice to have one year where the Wings moved up in the lotto.
 
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Ezekial

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Eskieal almost explained it well but I can't rationalize why he'd like to see wins just cause players are doing well. It's costing the franchise literally. Then he lost me when he went the the extreme other side and said and acted like I wanted to see players do bad and whine about that too, which would be true if they're doing bad, but they're not, I'm not sitting bashing the guys he pointed out in his post. Like I said, 5-4 loss was still a good game to watch last night was it not? The win literally is costing us draft position which to me is important when Wings were slotted at 3rd with a chance to go higher even. It's not like we're sitting in 10th, and a healthy team next year makes us better. We need that top talent in the draft, bad.
It's not that I "like to see wins" right now, I had the first post in this thread and I called this a "must lose game"
But I see intrinsic value in our young players finishing the season strong. If everyone was limping into golf season playing like a bunch of schlubs we would be looking at the lottery to be our one and only savior to take this trash heap out of the dumpster. But when we have Larkin looking like a 1A/B Center, AA making huge strides all over the ice, Hronek looking like a force on the blue line - it gives me hope that we can add to this group and make something out of it rather than looking for someone to try to McDavid us to a playoff spot.

As for the bolded, it's not literally costing the franchise yet. We could just be perfectly positioning ourselves to land Jack Hughes as you have no idea where the lottery balls will fall.
 
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SoupGuru

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You guys have to be careful with this even strength scoring stuff. Guys like me start salivating because plus/minus stats become relevant.

If you're a top scorer at even strength, how bad do you have to be defensively to earn a -7?
 

Hen Kolland

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Feb 22, 2018
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You guys have to be careful with this even strength scoring stuff. Guys like me start salivating because plus/minus stats become relevant.

If you're a top scorer at even strength, how bad do you have to be defensively to earn a -7?

If your even strength goals are X then I believe the answer to your question is X+7 bad defensively.
 
Apr 14, 2009
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The Wings don't have a 2nd line center at the moment, but with the way Athanasiou has been playing this year and how hard he has been working, he deserved a shot. You can't make the argument that he hasn't taken advantage of it because he has still played great. The Wings wont leave him their long term, I believe the goal in the draft is to find that 1st/2nd line center so that they don't have to force AA into that spot.

I agree with most of what you said actually and I'm just amazed/frustrated they are winning these games.

As far AA goes, I'm just not buying into him like EVERYONE else is here. He's a pretty good player on a terrible team that's had a lot of opportunity. No, I'm definately not mad about it. What I'm worried about is Wings will peg him in as a legit 2nd line C without even trying to get someone else. He's pretty good don't get me wrong guys, I'm just not buying him at this level or hype that he's got now.

AA has all the tools to prove that the hype is real. He has the wheels, he has the hands, he has the shot. AA is incredibly talented, and I don't think this is a fluke. He's entering his prime, and I think you can pencil him in as a 25+ goal, 50+ point player for years to come.

I do agree with you that he's not a C. His game is better suited for the wing. Of the top 50 (56 to be precise) goal scorers in the NHL this year, he is only 1 of 2 players to not average at least 17 minutes per game. I'm glad Blashill has finally given him minutes, but I honestly still don't think he gets enough. If he got first line minutes, who knows how many goals he'd get.
 

The Zetterberg Era

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AA has all the tools to prove that the hype is real. He has the wheels, he has the hands, he has the shot. AA is incredibly talented, and I don't think this is a fluke. He's entering his prime, and I think you can pencil him in as a 25+ goal, 50+ point player for years to come.

I do agree with you that he's not a C. His game is better suited for the wing. Of the top 50 (56 to be precise) goal scorers in the NHL this year, he is only 1 of 2 players to not average at least 17 minutes per game. I'm glad Blashill has finally given him minutes, but I honestly still don't think he gets enough. If he got first line minutes, who knows how many goals he'd get.

The bigger problem isn't how many goals he would get, but what the opposition would likely get as well.

Aa's had a very good year. He isn't a player I want checking other top line players though so without some improvement there his minutes are going to be pretty consistently near where he is now.
 

Pavels Dog

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That's fine you don't see the point in them losing tough games. I rationalized it for you a few times, in that they'll insure a higher pick at the very least, Winning last night game swung things around to where they'll likely fall draft position than gain draft position. It's legit that they have around 70% chance to fall below 4th in the draft.
Wait, is there a position where you have a higher chance of climbing than falling? Didn't think there was. Bottom team has like 80% probability of falling.
It's costing the franchise literally.
No, not literally at all actually.

1. It would cost the franchise BADLY if guys like Larkin/Mantha/Bertuzzi/AA/Hronek/etc. were all either loser-mentality guys or were simply bad players (i.e. guys that help us get top draft lottery position), the fact they look good is great for the franchise
2. We don't know what positions will win the lottery. Having 4th or 5th best odds could be where you win #1OA. In that scenario it would cost the franchise to be lower in the standings.
3. A 5th OA or 6th OA or 4th OA can turn into an elite core player, sometimes better than the top 3 picks.
4. We have a severe lack of high-end talent on the team, even a ~#5OA would be a massive addition to our system.
 
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obey86

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Wait, is there a position where you have a higher chance of climbing than falling? Didn't think there was. Bottom team has like 80% probability of falling.

No, not literally at all actually.

1. It would cost the franchise BADLY if guys like Larkin/Mantha/Bertuzzi/AA/Hronek/etc. were all either loser-mentality guys or were simply bad players (i.e. guys that help us get top draft lottery position), the fact they look good is great for the franchise
2. We don't know what positions will win the lottery. Having 4th or 5th best odds could be where you win #1OA. In that scenario it would cost the franchise to be lower in the standings.
3. A 5th OA or 6th OA or 4th OA can turn into an elite core player, sometimes better than the top 3 picks.
4. We have a severe lack of high-end talent on the team, even a ~#5OA would be a massive addition to our system.

Pavels Dog, just wait until we draft Hughes #1, and then the team becomes competitive immediately moving forward, and never finishes in the bottom 5 again. People here will complain that Holland is an idiot because he drafted too good of players and the team is now in perpetual wild card limbo without good enough defensive prospects. You know it's going to happen.

He's kind of damned if he makes the team competitive faster than expected (what an idiot! now they are never going to be bad enough for top picks!) or damned if the team is absolutely terrible (what a moron! this guy can't draft his way out of a paper bag unless he is handed the #1 pick! fire him!)
 

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