The Zermanator
In Yzerman We Trust
- Jan 21, 2013
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No, far from it. But that is exactly the argument many here are making: we have to find someone who is already "fully baked," or "elite" from the get-go. Because, if not, then why worry about picking higher than 4 or 5?
Nobody's saying that. It's not like a top 3 pick will be elite right away, a 4-7 pick elite in 2 years, an 8-10 in 5 years, etc. Look at MacKinnon, he was getting heat for years for not living up to his billing, now he's in the conversation for best player in the league. Every player has a different development curve.
Some players will become elite in time, most never will. But the ones that do are overwhelmingly likely to be picked in the top 10, top 5 even more likely, and top 3 likelier still. The closer you get to #1, the better your odds to get a bonafide superstar. Obviously it's never a 100% guarantee. There are busts in the top picks, but that's why they're called busts. They were expected to be something but weren't. Nobody calls a 10th overall a bust for not becoming a superstar, because those expectations were just never there. So that's what it is, a game of odds. You can get a superstar with later picks, hell you can get them in the late rounds as we obviously know with D and Z.
Now having said all that, it's starting to seem that with the growth of our young guys we will not be vying for 1st overall anymore, barring ridiculous luck in the lottery. But fortunately for us, if recent drafts have been any indication, is that after the clear-cut #1 the #2-6 prospects are packed pretty tightly together. That's how we were able to get Zadina at #6. So regardless of where we fall in the top 7 we should be able to get a pretty damn good player.