GDT: Wings @ Bruins 7pm, 12-1-18

[The Zermanator]

No, far from it. But that is exactly the argument many here are making: we have to find someone who is already "fully baked," or "elite" from the get-go. Because, if not, then why worry about picking higher than 4 or 5?

Nobody's saying that. It's not like a top 3 pick will be elite right away, a 4-7 pick elite in 2 years, an 8-10 in 5 years, etc. Look at MacKinnon, he was getting heat for years for not living up to his billing, now he's in the conversation for best player in the league. Every player has a different development curve.

Some players will become elite in time, most never will. But the ones that do are overwhelmingly likely to be picked in the top 10, top 5 even more likely, and top 3 likelier still. The closer you get to #1, the better your odds to get a bonafide superstar. Obviously it's never a 100% guarantee. There are busts in the top picks, but that's why they're called busts. They were expected to be something but weren't. Nobody calls a 10th overall a bust for not becoming a superstar, because those expectations were just never there. So that's what it is, a game of odds. You can get a superstar with later picks, hell you can get them in the late rounds as we obviously know with D and Z.

Now having said all that, it's starting to seem that with the growth of our young guys we will not be vying for 1st overall anymore, barring ridiculous luck in the lottery. But fortunately for us, if recent drafts have been any indication, is that after the clear-cut #1 the #2-6 prospects are packed pretty tightly together. That's how we were able to get Zadina at #6. So regardless of where we fall in the top 7 we should be able to get a pretty damn good player.

 

[Pavels Dog]

the thing is without getting a couple top picks guys like Larkin and Cholowski developing well actually does more harm than good

I mean what's the best case scenario there? in a few years ending up as a Minnesota type for a decade or so that usually makes the Playoffs but never actually competes for anything and then eventually bottoming out from there in the distant future? that just sounds like a huge waste of time to me

i'd much rather bottom out now for however long it takes than continue along the path i'm worried the team is on and maybe compete for something in two decades if it goes well next time around

Getting a few top draft picks don't guarantee we become the next Pittsburgh/Chicago, and some not top picks developing well don't guarantee we become the next Minnesota.

There are millions of ways things can turn out. Including the very realistic outcome of us finishing in the bottom 5 this season.

What I don't understand is how Cholo and Larkin turning into core players could ever be a bad thing. If the same two players were drafted in the top 5, I'm guessing it would not be a bad thing that they develop well? If Zadina comes in next season and scores 40 goals I guess it hurts the rebuild because he went #6 instead of #3?
Talent is talent. Regardless of where it was drafted.

 

[14ari13]

the thing is without getting a couple top picks guys like Larkin and Cholowski developing well actually does more harm than good

I mean what's the best case scenario there? in a few years ending up as a Minnesota type for a decade or so that usually makes the Playoffs but never actually competes for anything and then eventually bottoming out from there in the distant future? that just sounds like a huge waste of time to me

i'd much rather bottom out now for however long it takes than continue along the path i'm worried the team is on and maybe compete for something in two decades if it goes well next time around

Who is going to finance that crapy team? Who is supposed to pay tickets to watch the team sucks?

 

[obey86]

lets say that the wings get the #2 and #3 picks the next two seasons. 2 shots at potential superstar players right? great! but hey, unfortunately they picked the wrong guys or whatever --- and their #2 and #3 picks turn out (3-5 year down the road) to just to be Larkin and Mantha caliber players, very good but not great. This means the team is simply a playoff competitor/1st round exit type team - so good enough to be competitive but not good enough to dominate the league or anything obviously. What would the plan be at that point? Trade the entire team and start tanking?

 

[Gniwder]

Big win! Trade value certainly went up for guys like Nyqvist and Howard.. lights out games by both of them I thought. Loved Lil Berts grit tonight too

Trade value? If they keep playing like this Holland is going to sign both to $6M/6Y contracts. You know how much he loves to overpay vets. He;s not selling at the trade deadline if we're anywhere close to the WC spot.