zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
Well then the playoffs should alleviate my fears.
no guarantees, but they should.
Well then the playoffs should alleviate my fears.
Might be accomplished by a media narrative for ratings, but on paper there is literally no way Boston is ever going to be the favorite over us this season. Take a real look at their roster.
I was very confident going into the series against Boston last year, and guess what? Despite completely blowing 2 games at the start, it came down to 10 minutes at the end of game 7. That's as close as it can get.
we're ahead of them in the standings, and the only reason they're actually close is they have triple the loser points. and we're better than them at this that and the other thing too.
You were upset enough not to notice that I used wins, losses, goals, goals against, and save percentage.
yes that is how looking at hot streaks works.
which is what I assumed the comment i was responding to which said "not with how they're playing now" referred to.
if he was referring to how we were playing back before the all-star break, it's a weird way to phrase it.
yep, when everyone else was predicting us to get run out of the rink, I said we could win even as the underdogs. We lost in the 3rd period of game 7.
Don’t give up the faith Zeke.no guarantees, but they should.
Here's another perspective - you were very confident last year but we lost. Yes it was close, but I also think it could have been somewhat closer considering how we got blown out 4-0 in the 3rd period with the season on the line. 4-0 in the deciding one period of hockey, yeah that part wasn't close, that part was a blowout.
So according to you, injuries are a non-factor, got it. And I disagree.
I'm also a little surprised that someone who loves stats as much as you do is using terms such as this thing and that thing and so on but OK.
Not upset, just dis-interested in advanced stats over an 8 game span.
Are you upset that I think wins and losses are more important than advanced stats?
There are a lot of ups and downs in a season, an 8 game stretch at this point in time isn't very meaningful, especially from an advanced stats POV.
LOL that's not true at all. I said Boston deserved to be the favourites but said IMHO, the odds posted were a bit more in Boston's favour than they should be. I said it looked like it should be a very close series, and it was.
Saying we "could win" doesn't exactly make you Nostradamus my friend, the same could be said for any series ever, it's just a matter of calculating probabilities.
Don’t give up the faith Zeke.
There’s nothing wrong with being positive either.
I typed out the games missed for you. Don't ignore it.
Just talking your language.
pro-tip: advanced stats are especially useful in short samples where wins/losses/goals are especially prone to random variation.
I posted the wins and losses. Your analytics rage blinded you to them.
I was responding to a post saying "how they are playing now", it seems a little weird to insist I should be looking at games from a month ago when looking at "how they are playing now".
and, again, the analytics are actually more relevant in smaller samples relative to other numbers, while the other numbers actually catch up in relevance the larger the sample gets. your use of the word "especially" in this context is backwards.
You asked me what I felt about the series going in last year, and I told you. I though we could win, despite being the underdogs, though I didn't think it would be easy. What set me apart, maybe, was insisting that the game 2 performacne was nowhere near as bad as it looked, and that we could come back even from a 1-3 deficit in the series.
As for what you felt about the series, you can say whatever you'd like, as I wouldn't know.
That's literally irrelevant. We're talking about a series of hockey here, 7 games. A period or even a game on its own doesn't matter in the slightest and you're just using that to fit a narrative.
Over a series of hockey, it was as close as it could be in both series against Boston in the last 4-5 years. This year we have improved far more then they have, so I don't see why this doesn't make us the easy favourite.
So the 3rd period of game 7 was irrelevant, got it.
BTW, if we're so clearly superior to Boston, why do you suppose we're only one point ahead of them in the standings? Just wondering.
Yes, using 20 minutes of hockey to justify which team is a favorite is irrelevant.
It's called parity. We're also 2 points ahead of Nashville and Washington, and 2 points behind Winnipeg, and yet those teams are considered ahead of the Leafs in contender status.
I hope you are wrong but my fears too. When it comes down to 2 guys wanting the puck the bruins have more guys who want it more. Tavares will help. Muzzy will help. But I would like 1 more defender who can help. Even having a 4th line guy on bench who does not hit ice but Chara knows is there would help. And if Chara goes Pronger on AM or MM then we have a response rather then team putting tail between the legs. Sometimes a guy just needs to skate by him early and say "heh big man are we gonna going on a canoe ride today?"They beat Montreal in 5 because they are more talented and would have confidence. They lose to Boston in 6 because Boston is a much tougher team and the Leafs still feel the Bruins have their number. Boston will turn it into a street fight and players like AM will turtle and get pushed around.
Tampa beats them in 5 due to better goal tending and forechecking.
Toronto needs a few more tough guys. Muzzin can’t do it all.
Hopefully I’m wrong.
I hope you are wrong but my fears too. When it comes down to 2 guys wanting the puck the bruins have more guys who want it more. Tavares will help. Muzzy will help. But I would like 1 more defender who can help. Even having a 4th line guy on bench who does not hit ice but Chara knows is there would help. And if Chara goes Pronger on AM or MM then we have a response rather then team putting tail between the legs. Sometimes a guy just needs to skate by him early and say "heh big man are we gonna going on a canoe ride today?"
I think we need to do that too. Exhaust him early and often. But he might catch up to one of our guys and do some damage. He has done it before. Tommy is on the Marlies roster for a reason. Bruins may not even have a 4th line shift and their top line will go 26 minutes in playoffs. Why not have Tommy and Brownie and Goat for a 4th line? Brownie and Goat can play here and there when needed. Tommy can sit on bench. Maybe give him 1 shift early in 1st and tell him to look bad at Chara but come back to bench.You are right but there are not many players who are tough enough to challenge Chara. Luckily Chara is able to control his temper and not kill somebody. We need to beat Chara with our speed. Keep throwing the puck in his corner and race him to the puck. It should take a toll on him by game 7.
I think we need to do that too. Exhaust him early and often. But he might catch up to one of our guys and do some damage. He has done it before. Tommy is on the Marlies roster for a reason. Bruins may not even have a 4th line shift and their top line will go 26 minutes in playoffs. Why not have Tommy and Brownie and Goat for a 4th line? Brownie and Goat can play here and there when needed. Tommy can sit on bench. Maybe give him 1 shift early in 1st and tell him to look bad at Chara but come back to bench.
There has been lots of good teams in the history of the NHL that just didn’t have the it factor. We don’t know yet.There's no need to be positive. Literally every measure in existence says we're really really good.