I take the same position now as last year. A better chance to advance to the second round is to face Tampa. We're a better fit given the style of our club. And I think a win in the first round against Tampa would give the club the extra dose of confidence Toronto needs to face Boston in the playoffs.
Something that unnerves me is the way Pastrnak, for example, seems to have learned to play against Toronto the way Boston led by Chara and Bergeron always have. That's indicative of a culture being maintained. That's unnerving for continued meetings down the road.
Sure, we have to face every club in every round to win the Cup. But I think strategy where it can be had and utilized is important. And if our club is to build upon it's regular season improvement over the last couple of seasons in similar fashion in the playoffs , a few breaks in terms of order of opponent(s) will go a long way to creating a culture of confidence to match organizations like Boston and Pittsburgh.
To face Tampa in the first round, either we have to drop to the second wild card spot, or they have to drop to the second wild card spot and we win the conference, or Boston or Montreal has to pass us both, to take top spot.
Which do you think is likely?
There are other scenarios. For example, if the Isles (or Pittsburgh or Washington) ended up first in the conference, then Leafs and Tampa would play if they were second and third in the division, or first in the division and the first wild card.
Considering how Tampa is playing and the lead they have, the most likely is if we drop to the second wild card, which I don't want to think about.