Will We Make The Playoffs?

[egd27]

Since Jan 1st of last season through today the Leafs rank 18th overall in record comparison in a league where 16 teams make the playoffs. So on play of a sample size of last 50+ games are a marginal playoff team at best.

I understand this plays to a great narrative but can we please drop this argument?

The 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs are radically different than the Jan-April 2019 Toronto Maple Leafs.

There is an 11 game sample size to judge this team on not a 50+ game sample size.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

Montreal lost their baseball team and some Argentinian plays soccer.

Cool response. I have no idea what you're talking about, nor do I have any idea what it has to do with my post.

Kudos.

 

[Stephen]

I understand this plays to a great narrative but can we please drop this argument?

The 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs are radically different than the Jan-April 2019 Toronto Maple Leafs.

There is an 11 game sample size to judge this team on not a 50+ game sample size.

You could also make the hot take that the new components have actually played fairly well. I have no problem with Mikheyev, Moore, Timashov, Kerfoot. Ceci isn’t a downgrade necessarily, Barrie has been mediocre to bad but not singlehandedly bringing them down. Spezza, Shore, Gravel, etc have not really factored in much. And yet the flaws are the same.

You can basically say the problems that belong to the core have not been solved.

 

[Mess]

Does it matter how much cap space you have if your double digit players aren't living up to their contracts.
And on defense, you know Rielly is going to cash in and he does little more than play marner's role on defense.

True.

If double digit players are not living up to their contracts that isn't a coaching issue its a GM overpayment issue or a player underperforming issue.

Tyson Barrie in his last 8 games is 0-0-0 points and -8 +/-. He isn't contributing offensively and its well known he isn't strong defensively and he is does little more than play Nylander's role on PP#2 and we know he is looking to cash in soon.

Last year Rielly's partner Ron Hainsey was a +30 +/- on the season (top 5 Dman in the NHL +/-) and was a stabilizing force for Morgan and 5v5 were not a liability but a strength of the defense going up against the top opposition.

So far it looks like the player personnel changes made the Leafs worse defensively in an attempt to focus on offense.

Leafs are top 5 in goals for and bottom 5 in goals against and a +1 goal differential on the season that suggests average .500 team and their record 5-4-2 and results align. Maybe we have to start recognizing that the cap heavy contracts has perhaps reduced the team to just an average team now and if those double digit players significantly under-perform their contracts then .500 hockey team when the dust settles is realistic expectations.

WYSIWYG (What you see is what you get) ...

 

[The Iceman]

PLAYOFFS

We can and we will!!

 

[as Pure as Evil]

im gonna play the devils advocate here. if worse case scenario does arise and we have a calamity of a season. end up with a top 10 pick and you get your choice of either of the swedes byfield or barron and Drysdale who do you take in the top 10. does our draft team go off the board and take askarov

sometimes a great team needs to take a step back before they can go forward. burning out this year wouldn't be the worst as we could recoup a lot of assets with muzzin and barrie among a couple others if needed. I would prefer to resign muzzin but if its a mulligan year I think he should end up being traded if we flounder

boston tampa all have had hiccups in between great seasons probably more teams too but those are the ones that most will relate with

 

[robertmac43]

We don't know for sure that they're going to be okay, but it's way too early to say that they're not. No panic button should be hit until December. October is their hardest month, so you can judge them for that, wait a couple of months. The irrational fans and media are going to make great players demand trades.

We don't know for sure, true. The last couple seasons though the team has done enough to get the benefit of the doubt from me.

 

[hoglund]

We don't know for sure, true. The last couple seasons though the team has done enough to get the benefit of the doubt from me.

It's harder to make the playoffs than many fans think, look at Montreal with 96 points last season and missed. Missing the playoffs this year wouldn't surprise me.

 

[ULF_55]

.

*Conditions: If the Leafs pick is top 10 in 2020, the Hurricanes will receive Toronto's 2021 1st round pick instead.

 

[Mess]

I understand this plays to a great narrative but can we please drop this argument?

The 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs are radically different than the Jan-April 2019 Toronto Maple Leafs.

There is an 11 game sample size to judge this team on not a 50+ game sample size.

Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson, Rielly, Andersen etc etc were all there last year, and are the same players this year and its all the high impact top players all being common to both data sets Jan-April and Oct this year.

So you're saying the Spezza, Timashov, Mikheyev, Hutchenson, etc etc (ie the new depth players) are essentially the differences that disqualify the 50 game sample size.

 

[ACC1224]

Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson, Rielly, Andersen etc etc were all there last year, and are the same players this year and its all the high impact top players all being common to both data sets Jan-April and Oct this year.

So you're saying the Spezza, Timashov, Mikheyev, Hutchenson, etc etc (ie the new depth players) are essentially the differences that disqualify the 50 game sample size.

List the lineup from last year to this year and you will see the difference.
Every line and defense paring has changed.

 

[Mess]

List the lineup from last year to this year and you will see the difference.
Every line and defense paring has changed.

Maybe when more of the same players Hyman and Dermott return we will see a better Leafs team and effort..

Both these missing players are high energy and willing to engage physically and Zach really makes that JT and Marner line go.

So help is on the way that could improve things.

 

[Trapper]

Maybe when more of the same players Hyman and Dermott return we will see a better Leafs team and effort..

Both these missing players are high energy and willing to engage physically and Zach really makes that JT and Marner line go.

So help is on the way that could improve things.

Basically wait until the harder workers return.

 

[egd27]

Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson, Rielly, Andersen etc etc were all there last year, and are the same players this year and its all the high impact top players all being common to both data sets Jan-April and Oct this year.

So you're saying the Spezza, Timashov, Mikheyev, Hutchenson, etc etc (ie the new depth players) are essentially the differences that disqualify the 50 game sample size.

Feb 2019 against St Louis
Zach Hyman John Tavares Mitch Marner
Patrick Marleau Auston Matthews Kasperi Kapanen
Andreas Johnsson Nazem Kadri William Nylander
Par Lindholm Frederick Gauthier C. Brown/T. Ennis

Morgan Rielly Ron Hainsey
Jake Muzzin Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner Travis Dermott


Frederik Andersen
Garret Sparks

Oct 2019 against St Louis
Kapanen-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Moore
Petan-Spezza-Gauthier

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Sandin-Holl

Andersen
Hutchinson

50% turnover (10 new faces in line up)
Not one forward line the same
Not one defence pairing the same

Yes....I am saying it's not the same team. They're still playing poorly, but it's not the same team.

 

[MyBudJT]

No doubt in my mind, we make the playoffs.

I can't see this team playing so lackadaisical all season... I just can't. Once they show consistent effort, we'll be a force to reckon with.

 

[IPS]

Maybe when more of the same players Hyman and Dermott return we will see a better Leafs team and effort..

Both these missing players are high energy and willing to engage physically and Zach really makes that JT and Marner line go.

So help is on the way that could improve things.

Good grief if we need Zach Hyman to make our 2 players worth almost $22M in cap space "go" then we have some serious problems.

 

[ACC1224]

Feb 2019 against St Louis
Zach Hyman John Tavares Mitch Marner
Patrick Marleau Auston Matthews Kasperi Kapanen
Andreas Johnsson Nazem Kadri William Nylander
Par Lindholm Frederick Gauthier C. Brown/T. Ennis

Morgan Rielly Ron Hainsey
Jake Muzzin Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner Travis Dermott


Frederik Andersen
Garret Sparks

Oct 2019 against St Louis
Kapanen-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Moore
Petan-Spezza-Gauthier

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Sandin-Holl

Andersen
Hutchinson

50% turnover (10 new faces in line up)
Not one forward line the same
Not one defence pairing the same

Yes....I am saying it's not the same team. They're still playing poorly, but it's not the same team.

Thank you.
You wouldn't think you'd need to list out the lines but here we are.

 

[Mess]

Basically wait until the harder workers return.

Precisely !!!

Hyman is the glue that makes JT and MM work more effectively.

Dermott loves to engage physically and so he drags more people into the fight when he is active.

Leafs have been a .500 team without them and I expect an uptick in performance and effort across the board when they return.

 

[stealth1]

Precisely !!!

Hyman is the glue that makes JT and MM work more effectively.

Dermott loves to engage physically and so he drags more people into the fight when he is active.

Leafs have been a .500 team without them and I expect an uptick in performance and effort across the board when they return.

If that's the case then Dubas and the Leafs paid the wrong players the most money. If your highest paid players need an energy guy to get them going, then Dubas over paid them. Marner and Matthews should be carrying and leading this team. They shouldn't have to rely on a guy like Hyman to make them go.

 

[rumman]

Good grief if we need Zach Hyman to make our 2 players worth almost $22M in cap space "go" then we have some serious problems.

bingo.

 

[ACC1224]

Feb 2019 against St Louis
Zach Hyman John Tavares Mitch Marner
Patrick Marleau Auston Matthews Kasperi Kapanen
Andreas Johnsson Nazem Kadri William Nylander
Par Lindholm Frederick Gauthier C. Brown/T. Ennis

Morgan Rielly Ron Hainsey
Jake Muzzin Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner Travis Dermott


Frederik Andersen
Garret Sparks

Oct 2019 against St Louis
Kapanen-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Moore
Petan-Spezza-Gauthier

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Sandin-Holl

Andersen
Hutchinson

50% turnover (10 new faces in line up)
Not one forward line the same
Not one defence pairing the same

Yes....I am saying it's not the same team. They're still playing poorly, but it's not the same team.

I guess it shouldn't be surprising that this post has gone ignored.

 

[hoglund]

Maybe when more of the same players Hyman and Dermott return we will see a better Leafs team and effort..

Both these missing players are high energy and willing to engage physically and Zach really makes that JT and Marner line go.

So help is on the way that could improve things.

Dermott and Hyman would help this team alot.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

We should be talking about how deep in the playoffs we will go. That's what I think the standard should be this year. The regular season should be the preamble. Its time.

 

[mikeyz]

I think we will. But it will be another 1st round exit IMO. Especially if Babcock is still the coach.

 

[rumman]

all I know is every game that the Leafs lose is one they'll look back on with regret come April. Will it be a regret of playoff positioning or not making the playoffs? One would hope things don't get to the latter, but stranger things have happened. If I was a Leaf player I wouldn't be accepting any rides in semi's in the mountains anytime soon.