Will We Make The Playoffs?

[Bomber0104]

And this, by far, is the best, most professional management the Leafs have ever had. Ever.

As a fan - and a new one likely - how would you actually know this to be true?

Did you have an inside scoop during the Dryden/Quinn years?

 

[Leaf Fans]

We hold the Wild Card now, so no reason to think we wouldn't.

 

[AreBe]

As a fan - and a new one likely - how would you actually know this to be true?

Because they have an analytics department! That alone, makes them the best by a large margin, management team in Leafs history.

 

[Bomber0104]

Because they have an analytics department! That alone, makes them the best by a large margin, management team in Leafs history.

You think Pat Quinn decided to acquire Belfour by drawing straws?

 

[AreBe]

You think Pat Quinn decided to acquire Belfour by drawing straws?

Nope- and he was good too. But we have better technology and information- we had a reluctance to go to spreadsheets- we were late adopters, but did we ever hit gold with Dubass. And we keep drafting well and finding high skilled Europeans too! We are building a little Soviet Red Army team- very, very impressive.

 

[Bomber0104]

Nope- and he was good too. But we have better technology and information- we had a reluctance to go to spreadsheets- we were late adopters, but did we ever hit gold with Dubass. And we keep drafting well and finding high skilled Europeans too! We are building a little Soviet Red Army team- very, very impressive.

And how is that working out for the Leafs?

Seems like they're losing a lot...

 

[hoglund]

Except the team plays with the same flaws as before as dictated by the strengths and weaknesses of the core.

No argument there.

 

[hoglund]

And how is that working out for the Leafs?

Seems like they're losing a lot...

They've only lost 4 regulation games and it's a bit early to judge, wait a couple of months especially since October is a brutal month on the schedule for the Leafs.

 

[hoglund]

I sometimes wonder how people who have this negative a view on the Leafs get through the other areas of their life.

We're 11 games in and have yet to have a game with a full line up. Let's all take a step back and breath, these guys are going to be okay.

We don't know for sure that they're going to be okay, but it's way too early to say that they're not. No panic button should be hit until December. October is their hardest month, so you can judge them for that, wait a couple of months. The irrational fans and media are going to make great players demand trades.

 

[Mess]

They've only lost 4 regulation games and it's a bit early to judge, wait a couple of months especially since October is a brutal month on the schedule for the Leafs.

On the other hand they've only won 5 games of their first 11 games and have been beating mainly only the weaker non playoff teams OTT,DET, Columbus etc and losing to the playoff contenders.

That is what you would expect from a .500 hockey team results to be where you find yourself in the middle.

Since Jan 1st of last season through today the Leafs rank 18th overall in record comparison in a league where 16 teams make the playoffs. So on play of a sample size of last 50+ games are a marginal playoff team at best.

A .500 hockey team is around 82 points where last year M0ntreal missed the playoffs with 96 points.

So I think we're going to be asking ourselves most of the year this same question if we're a playoff team, and this year with a very top heavy $$ cap team Leafs depth will be tested more than ever before.

 

[ULF_55]

And how is that working out for the Leafs?

Seems like they're losing a lot...

Wouldn't you like to see the Spreadsheet on Babcock?

Might even have information on his most recent 10 years as head coach?

 

[Bomber0104]

Wouldn't you like to see the Spreadsheet on Babcock?

Might even have information on his most recent 10 years as head coach?

Sure, and then let's compare it to Dubas'.

What's even on his though?

 

[ULF_55]

Sure, and then let's compare it to Dubas'.

What's even on his though?

Junior league stuff probably, he's a relative rookie at his position.

Now if he was an experienced, veteran GM we could see what his NHL track record is.

Now if he had 17 years at his position in the NHL and his past 10 years were filled with mediocre results he'd probably be looking for a position somewhere.

 

[Mess]

Wouldn't you like to see the Spreadsheet on Babcock?

Might even have information on his most recent 10 years as head coach?

What if it isn't coaching, and its the fact that Leafs have been cap spending themselves out of competitiveness?

1/2 the Leafs salary cap is spent on just 4 players .. If JT is out that puts the Leafs down $10 mil in player personnel available when replaced by $700 Jason Spezza.

If the AM + MM + WN simply float around and don't factor in the score in a game in a major way that means you have a $40 mil Leafs balance remaining roster vs an $80 mil roster of the opposition.

If you play Boston on the night and their top line combined takes $19.6 mil and they score 2-3 goals while keeping Matthews and Marner in check that means in order for the Leafs to win the game they need their depth Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Gauthier etc etc to make up the difference offensively and score 3-4 goals from the bottom 1/2 your roster and remaining cap, while their backup goalie is in net to boot.

How many nights when AM and MM are invisible are we expected to beat a strong team under these cap $$ allocation disadvantages? Its like a glorified AHL team (with mostly cap min players) taking on an NHL team roster, and thus the odds of success are not good.

In games were AM+MM+JT score and combined for multiple goals Leafs odds of winning are increased, and in games where hey're held in check or outscored by the oppositions top players the deck is stacked against them they will win. Seeing as those 3 top players are essentially PPG players on the season that means also statistically in games where they have multi-point games there also going to be offset by Zero point games to remain PPG players statistically over the course of 82 games.

The MATH not the coaching is going to play the biggest part in Leafs season results and standings.

 

[Dayjobdave]

I voted 'no' to the Leafs making the playoffs based on these factors

• We have a ridiculously difficult schedule with far too many back to backs against rested divisional opponents
• The division is much tougher this year, and it will take a solid season start to finish to make the playoffs
• The team does not have the cap room to maneuver around injuries
• Our backup goaltending is suspect
• These players don't seem to want to play for this coach
• It is going to take a year for Mitch and Auston to adjust to their big money life change

I've pretty much ranked these in order of impact. Frankly, i think having, what is it, 13 back to backs, with 10 of them this year, means that in a way they are really playing only a 69 game season, plus 13 impinged games. Assuming they would only get, say 9 points in the 13 back to backs, they need almost 90 points in the other 69 games to make the playoffs. That's a 107 point pace. Plus, 6 of these second games are against divisional opponents, although one is a back-to-back with the Sabres, so call it 5. That should result in extra points going to others within the division, making this even more difficult for the Leafs.

This team was doomed from the day the schedule came out. The team will have to fire on all cylinders to make it, and they are not doing that now.

Good thing their first rounder is lottery protected.

 

[Bomber0104]

Junior league stuff probably, he's a relative rookie at his position.

Now if he was an experienced, veteran GM we could see what his NHL track record is.

Now if he had 17 years at his position in the NHL and his past 10 years were filled with mediocre results he'd probably be looking for a position somewhere.

No need to wait that long since we're already seeing mediocre results with Dubas at the helm.

All he really had to do was maintain the 105 point team he inherited from Lou but instead he decided to overhaul it for the worse.

But I definitely do agree with his decision to trade consecutive 1st round picks. There's no way we'd be able to pay those players even if they turn into something.

 

[ULF_55]

No need to wait that long since we're already seeing mediocre results with Dubas at the helm.

All he really had to do was maintain the 105 point team he inherited from Lou but instead he decided to overhaul it for the worse.

But I definitely do agree with his decision to trade consecutive 1st round picks. There's no way we'd be able to pay those players even if they turn into something.

The way they are performing right now, it doesn't stop at the GM level.

Other than the depth players, I don't see a lot you'd point to as good.

The assistant coaches might get a too soon to rank, but otherwise who is doing a good job?

This isn't all on Dubas.

 

[ULF_55]

What if it isn't coaching, and its the fact that Leafs have been cap spending themselves out of competitiveness?

1/2 the Leafs salary cap is spent on just 4 players .. If JT is out that puts the Leafs down $10 mil in player personnel available when replaced by $700 Jason Spezza.

If the AM + MM + WN simply float around and don't factor in the score in a game in a major way that means you have a $40 mil Leafs balance remaining roster vs an $80 mil roster of the opposition.

If you play Boston on the night and their top line combined takes $19.6 mil and they score 2-3 goals while keeping Matthews and Marner in check that means in order for the Leafs to win the game they need their depth Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Gauthier etc etc to make up the difference offensively and score 3-4 goals from the bottom 1/2 your roster and remaining cap, while their backup goalie is in net to boot.

How many nights when AM and MM are invisible are we expected to beat a strong team under these cap $$ allocation disadvantages? Its like a glorified AHL team (with mostly cap min players) taking on an NHL team roster, and thus the odds of success are not good.

In games were AM+MM+JT score and combined for multiple goals Leafs odds of winning are increased, and in games where hey're held in check or outscored by the oppositions top players the deck is stacked against them they will win. Seeing as those 3 top players are essentially PPG players on the season that means also statistically in games where they have multi-point games there also going to be offset by Zero point games to remain PPG players statistically over the course of 82 games.

The MATH not the coaching is going to play the biggest part in Leafs season results and standings.

Does it matter how much cap space you have if your double digit players aren't living up to their contracts.
And on defense, you know Rielly is going to cash in and he does little more than play marner's role on defense.

 

[ToneDog]

No need to wait that long since we're already seeing mediocre results with Dubas at the helm.

All he really had to do was maintain the 105 point team he inherited from Lou but instead he decided to overhaul it for the worse.

But I definitely do agree with his decision to trade consecutive 1st round picks. There's no way we'd be able to pay those players even if they turn into something.

Hindsight is 20/20 but what if he kept Marleau and the first which would have forced him to bridge Marner at a lower AAV ? Instead he cleared the decks in order to overpay Marner.

 

[JustJokinenAround]

Dermott is not a key player. Tavares has only been out for two games.

we can agree to disagree saying that dermott isn't a key player but we can both agree that he is miles better than marincin or gravel

 

[GardinerTheForward]

we can agree to disagree saying that dermott isn't a key player but we can both agree that he is miles better than marincin or gravel

Yes he will improve the team over those pylons. I just don’t think things really change when he gets back. We’re not skating with any passion; the results show based on pts%/game

 

[IPS]

Hindsight is 20/20 but what if he kept Marleau and the first which would have forced him to bridge Marner at a lower AAV ? Instead he cleared the decks in order to overpay Marner.

Word was Marner's camp wasn't accepting a bridge. Rumor has it they were demanding some flabbergasting amount like 9.5 x 3 with a qualifying offer of 15 million.

They were completely adamant on that 5 year deal from what I understood (Matthews' contract) so it's clear Dubas conceded and negotiated from there (good job getting that 1 extra year Dubas ).

Their camp was imposing very ruthless negotiations and made Dubas fold like a cheap suit. Unfortunately for us, bridging was just never a possibility.

 

[rumman]

Hindsight is 20/20 but what if he kept Marleau and the first which would have forced him to bridge Marner at a lower AAV ? Instead he cleared the decks in order to overpay Marner.

giving a 1st away to rid the team of 82 games of a over paid yet still serviceable player (3rd-4th line) was a pretty high price to pay, having the player that money went to struggle only makes it more so imo.

 

[rumman]

Word was Marner's camp wasn't accepting a bridge. Rumor has it they were demanding some flabbergasting amount like 9.5 x 3 with a qualifying offer of 15 million.

They were completely adamant on that 5 year deal from what I understood (Matthews' contract) so it's clear Dubas conceded and negotiated from there (good job getting that 1 extra year Dubas ).

Their camp was imposing very ruthless negotiations and made Dubas fold like a cheap suit. Unfortunately for us, bridging was just never a possibility.

does it really matter what a player is demanding? It's called RESTRICTED free agency for a reason, if there's confusion on this matter please see what the other teams did with their RFA's this past off season.

 

[Nineteen67]

Nope- and he was good too. But we have better technology and information- we had a reluctance to go to spreadsheets- we were late adopters, but did we ever hit gold with Dubass. And we keep drafting well and finding high skilled Europeans too! We are building a little Soviet Red Army team- very, very impressive.

Dubas has done nothing to warrant any praise. He’s on pace to have a 20th place team with no draft pick.