Love Vinny and am a huge fan, but I don’t know if he ends up in the HOF. I’d be surprised if he did, but there are worse players in, so it’s tough to say.
The Cooke hit absolutely contributed to his decline and it shouldn’t be minimized like it has here. Vinny was set for wrist(?) surgery in the offseason and that had to be delayed a full year so he could get the shoulder fixed instead. That wrist injury lingered and got worse over the course of the full next season. It might not have been immediately apparent but the shoulder surgery and subsequent rehab that prevented fixing the wrist issue was unfortunately the beginning of the end.
All of that said, Vinny is the Lightning. Obviously that counts more on a team number retirement level than on a HOF level but it’s something he has in spades.