Speculation: Will the Leafs make the playoffs?

[Penalty Kill Icing*]

Sorry to break your bubble if you can cherry pick your stats, so can I.

1. If you are just going to use 'on pace for' stats, why not just look at that prediction website, which has Leafs on way for a playoff berth right now.

2. If you are going to be selective in stats, I'll give it a try. Leafs are 3-1-0 in their last four home games. Which means that if they keep up with this pace, they will have 22.5 points in the rest of their home games. Pretty good, no?

So that is already 48 points even without considering future away games....


EDIT: Gist of my second point is that Leafs are getting better on home recently (the 3-1-0 indicates that) and they are still keeping up with impressive road record. Am not sure what exactly you want from the team at this point.

 

[yideboit]

But this site http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Toronto.html says that if they finish with 56 points they have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs. In fact even with 54 points there's still a 90% chance. I'll take those odds!

better hope they keep that record up on the road then!

 

[yideboit]

this is FAIRLY laughable ...

Sorry to break your bubble if you can cherry pick your stats, so can I.

1. If you are just going to use 'on pace for' stats, why not just look at that prediction website, which has Leafs on way for a playoff berth right now.

2. If you are going to be selective in stats, I'll give it a try. Leafs are 3-1-0 in their last four home games. Which means that if they keep up with this pace, they will have 22.5 points in the rest of their home games. Pretty good, no?

So that is already 48 points even without considering future away games....

that website uses points without considering home/away records whatsoever ... the whole purpose of this was to differentiate the two...

i don't know if this needs saying ... but a larger sample size normally tends to lead to greater statistical accuracy ... normally speaking ... if you want a more accurate analysis you'd take the whole sample you have (all games played to that point) versus the "last 4" that you did:S ... by your logic ... i could say they won their last game ... they should be undefeated the rest of eternity ...

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Pointless thread is pointless

 

[Penalty Kill Icing*]

^ Nailed it.

J if the leafs don't get better at home then there isn't a very good chance that they'll make the playoffs!

My post was in response to this specific part.

They are indeed getting better at home. Your thread would've made much more sense if Leafs had a 3-1-0 start on home and then a 1-4-0 in last five games.

Since they are already improving at home, I still don't know what exactly you are asking for.

 

[yideboit]

Pointless thread is pointless

glad you could bring some substance to the conversation ty sir!

 

[81Leafs50]

Just doing some averages on away stats and the leafs current record... if the leafs don't get better at home then there isn't a very good chance that they'll make the playoffs!

basically based on the win-loss averages that they have now, i would put them on pace to have the following (ish) home/away records

home - 11-13-0 ( 4/9 = 0.444 x 24 = 10.667 or apprx 11)
away - 17-7-0 (9/13 = 0.629 x 24 = 16.615 or apprx 17)

*as you can see i even rounded up on both giving them the benefit of the doubt / statistical advantage there!

that combines for an 'anticipated record' of 28-20-0 ... or 56 points

now, assuming that around 91 points in a full season is the standard rough "make or break" line for 8th place most years - this works out to apprx 1.123456 points per game - and right now they are on pace (using my 'anticipated record') to get 1.1667 points per game in the standings and this would likely be enough to get them into those illusive playoffs!

HOWEVER..... *dun dun dunnnnn*

Don't forget I rounded up on that record and it could be as low as 26-22-0 based on those calculations which would only be 1.083 points per game (not enough based on the average low to make the playoffs)

To add to this ... I personally do not think it would be possible to continue that road pace ... especially closer to playoff time so, simply put ... the leafs HAVE to be better at home if we are going to see our leafs in the playoffs this year!

PS ... We could have just taken the simpler route ... and just do their points per game right now (1.1818) and say that based on that versus the normal low points per game, that their record is currently good enough to get in, but the fact they've played more road than home games and have a worse record at home (where their majority of remaining games are) would make this number flawed... and aside from that, again i don't think that their away record is sustainable.

PPS ... Sorry to be a negative nancy after a big win !

Leafs will really take off once Frattin and Lupul come back, and Reimer gets his game back on track!

you are assuming the stay the same.

 

[Penalty Kill Icing*]

And what kind of logic is this?

According to OP: Its a given that Leafs will lose away games when it gets closer to playoffs time, but it is not a given that Leafs will win home games (because by soem voodoo magic, the first line won't apply to other 14 teams).

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

glad you could bring some substance to the conversation ty sir!

Sorry I just don't see the point of talking about different paces we could be on. We could lose the next 10 in a row or win 10 in a row and it would make whatever discussion we're having here absolutely pointless because it would change the pace so drastically given the small sample size. For example, after 5 games our home record was 1-4, what sort of pace would that have been? Whatever it is, its drastically different now. Useless

 

[Igy]

I'm going to guess 2 games above .500 will get a team into the playoffs. We are currently 4 above .500
As long as we don't go on any major losing streaks, we should be fine.

 

[yideboit]

^ Nailed it.



My post was in response to this specific part.

They are indeed getting better at home. Your thread would've made much more sense if Leafs had a 3-1-0 start on home and then a 1-4-0 in last five games.

Since they are already improving at home, I still don't know what exactly you are asking for.

" "

my response was to your specific part as well?

not really sure i follow!

where i'm taking this is that the leafs need to be better than their current record (not the last 4 games ... not the last 3 games ... not the last 2356457 games) at the end of the season if they are going to make the playoffs!

" "

 

[ACC1224]

" "

my response was to your specific part as well?

not really sure i follow!

where i'm taking this is that the leafs need to be better than their current record (not the last 4 games ... not the last 3 games ... not the last 2356457 games) at the end of the season if they are going to make the playoffs!

" "

Agreed.

Common sense can tell us that, math not needed.

 

[Penalty Kill Icing*]

" "

my response was to your specific part as well?

not really sure i follow!

where i'm taking this is that the leafs need to be better than their current record (not the last 4 games ... not the last 3 games ... not the last 2356457 games) at the end of the season if they are going to make the playoffs!

" "

Of course they need a better record. I agree with that point. But please don't force math and try and force to couple two things, when they aren't really helping the argument.

As someone said, we don't need math to tell us that record needs to better.

 

[yideboit]

Sorry I just don't see the point of talking about different paces we could be on. We could lose the next 10 in a row or win 10 in a row and it would make whatever discussion we're having here absolutely pointless because it would change the pace so drastically given the small sample size. For example, after 5 games our home record was 1-4, what sort of pace would that have been? Whatever it is, its drastically different now. Useless

Agreed.

Common sense can tell us that, math not needed.

apologies good sirs!

i forgot some hfboard users were pro-censorship ... i'll try to keep in check with what you deem acceptable to post in the future!

please inbox me a list of acceptable topics and times you troll the boards looking for unacceptable threads to whine about so i can please your royal presence in the future!

 

[Penalty Kill Icing*]

And a rule of thumb for using math/statistics to come to a conclusion (or support a hypothesis) is you need a sufficiently large sample size. Whichever way I look at it, 9 games is not.

 

[yideboit]

And a rule of thumb for using math/statistics to come to a conclusion (or support a hypothesis) is you need a sufficiently large sample size. Whichever way I look at it, 9 games is not.

should we use last years home games as well then?

 

[The Saurus]

should we use last years home games as well then?

No, because this years team is largely different from last years team. It would make your statistics completely irrelevant.

 

[ACC1224]

apologies good sirs!

i forgot some hfboard users were pro-censorship ... i'll try to keep in check with what you deem acceptable to post in the future!

please inbox me a list of acceptable topics and times you troll the boards looking for unacceptable threads to whine about so i can please your royal presence in the future!

Many have said this makes no sense. If you only want reply's that agree with you, put it in the title.

You need to get thicker skin.

 

[The Blue Devil]

So you say that their road record is not sustainable, but also think that they won't improve on their home record?

 

[Hounsy]

Goal differential is often a good indicator of if a team is more likely to move up or down in the standings. As of now that indicator looks positive.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

Time to Temper Expectations?

Not trying to be a downer. Just looking to have a practical and unbiased conversation. I am as excited as all of you at how this season has gone thus far.

However a bit of curiosity caused me to check out how the leafs were doing at the 22 game mark of last season. Oddly enough the leafs record was as follows:

12W 8L 2OTL 26Pts 72GF 69GA +3 on a 1 game win streak (2nd in the conference).

compared to 2013 that lands us a record of

13W 9L 0OTL 26Pts 64GF 55GA +9 on a 1 game win streak (6th in the conference).

Now i ask, what do you guys see thats different about this years maple leafs compared to last years? Should we be confident in this team? We all know what happened to that 18 wheeler.

 

[yideboit]

No, because this years team is largely different from last years team. It would make your statistics completely irrelevant.

i was being sarcastic .. shoulda thrown a wink face in there or something i think!

 

[ACC1224]

Different Coach and 22 games last year was a smaller percentage of the season.

ie. First 22 games this year are tougher, have more meaning than last year.

 

[yideboit]

So you say that their road record is not sustainable, but also think that they won't improve on their home record?

i dont think i said that they WONT improve their home record ... i'm saying that they DO need to!

Goal differential is often a good indicator of if a team is more likely to move up or down in the standings. As of now that indicator looks positive.

true enough!

i think (especially compared to recent years) this team looks ready to make the step into the playoffs ...

i'm just saying that their record isn't as promising as their current spot in the standings!

 

[Eb]

Man, people LOVE comparing this team to last years, it's hilarious.

But when you look at the three biggest changes, this team is totally different!

1) GA is significantly lower and our defence has been playing a lot better
2) Ron Wilson is gone
3) We now have three lines that can score... including a beauty that has been given a chance (Nazty)