Will MLS eventually surpass the NHL in revenue?

[IU Hawks fan]

I think it's 8 different leagues sending 4 teams each. So it takes all season to play their playoffs. The teams are actually playing the playoffs at the same time as they are playing their regular season.

That's not even close to the format.

And no, it's NOT the playoffs. They are playing for a completely different title.

 

[knorthern knight]

Yeah, but that only tells you who's the best at regular season play.

That would be like saying the President's Trophy winner is the champion of the NHL.

Showing my age here but I do vaguely remember a time when the Brier (Canadian curling championship) was simply a round robin affair with no playoff, unless there was a tie for for top spot. That changed in 1980.

 

[frivolousz21]

I do not mean to sound like I am hating on or hate MLS.

I am just making the best factual arguments and extrapolations for this thread. Like when I asked the poster about how MLS will become billion dollar league in the next 15 years. I am not sure if he is not answering or hasn't been on....but after he read it, he probably realized how "overzealous" he was with that statement.

MLS biggest enemy besides soccer's overall popularity which is no enemy now. Soccer is pretty popular here now. Is size of schedule. And economy/market saturation.

MLS won't be able to charge anywhere near the prices they need for max revenues.

Like a team with a 20K stadium charging $75 dollars per ticket/game.

that is 1.5 mil per game. Even $50 dollars per seat would be a million.

MLS teams probably have decently expensive tickets but also have tons of giveaways and on the spot incentive sales and all types of crap.
I expect MLS to top out between 350-400 million between 2013-2015 with smaller raises by 2020 being 500-550 mil(maybe).

There is also the day when Seattle, Toronto, and so on won't sell out every game. I know it can be hard to fathom now but it will happen when Seattle has a couple horrible years and they end up losing 10K per game or so and things go down for a bit. It is normal and all leagues/teams face it.

why can't MLS try to expand to 40 games and allow teams to expand rosters a bit like add 1 mil to the cap for the sked expansion.

MLS on it's own accord has been amazing the last 5 years and grown a TON, nearly doubling revenue that is awesome.

I want folks to know that. But when I read bigsoccer and the fanboys say things like NBC will desperately try to keep MLS in 2014 that is embarrassing.

NHL is going to pass 3 billion in revenue this is up about 1 billion from the lockout. That is a HUGE change. So let's keep some perspective here.

 

[Brodie]

Well, I never gave a timetable as definitive as "the next 15 years", but MLS is obviously growing in revenue annually and their recent TV deals have shown immense growth. For as much as you **** on the ratings, MLS does very well in key demos which makes it more valuable than a lot of other things that draw similar sheer numbers. Plus, attendance hasn't even begun to top out. And once it does, obviously teams would be able to charge more. Your numbers are based on nothing but your own imagination, so I don't understand why you expect anyone else to provide hard statistical evidence for their own projections

The league is already at a quarter of a billion in revenue, I mean it's not like saying it'll reach a billion some day is crazy talk. You treat MLS like it's Major League Lacrosse when the reality is that it's clearly a solid number 5 sports league.

 

[DelpoRafaKilla]

I do not mean to sound like I am hating on or hate MLS.

I am just making the best factual arguments and extrapolations for this thread. Like when I asked the poster about how MLS will become billion dollar league in the next 15 years. I am not sure if he is not answering or hasn't been on....but after he read it, he probably realized how "overzealous" he was with that statement.

MLS biggest enemy besides soccer's overall popularity which is no enemy now. Soccer is pretty popular here now. Is size of schedule. And economy/market saturation.

MLS won't be able to charge anywhere near the prices they need for max revenues.

Like a team with a 20K stadium charging $75 dollars per ticket/game.

that is 1.5 mil per game. Even $50 dollars per seat would be a million.

MLS teams probably have decently expensive tickets but also have tons of giveaways and on the spot incentive sales and all types of crap.
I expect MLS to top out between 350-400 million between 2013-2015 with smaller raises by 2020 being 500-550 mil(maybe).

There is also the day when Seattle, Toronto, and so on won't sell out every game. I know it can be hard to fathom now but it will happen when Seattle has a couple horrible years and they end up losing 10K per game or so and things go down for a bit. It is normal and all leagues/teams face it.

why can't MLS try to expand to 40 games and allow teams to expand rosters a bit like add 1 mil to the cap for the sked expansion.

MLS on it's own accord has been amazing the last 5 years and grown a TON, nearly doubling revenue that is awesome.

I want folks to know that. But when I read bigsoccer and the fanboys say things like NBC will desperately try to keep MLS in 2014 that is embarrassing.

NHL is going to pass 3 billion in revenue this is up about 1 billion from the lockout. That is a HUGE change. So let's keep some perspective here.

You are right about NBC in 2014, Fox getting the World Cup was the worst possible outcome for the MLS.

 

[nyrmetros]

Will MLS keep both ESPN and NBC as partners in the future?

 

[DelpoRafaKilla]

It's not a question who MLS will keep, but who will keep MLS.

 

[frivolousz21]

Well, I never gave a timetable as definitive as "the next 15 years", but MLS is obviously growing in revenue annually and their recent TV deals have shown immense growth. For as much as you **** on the ratings, MLS does very well in key demos which makes it more valuable than a lot of other things that draw similar sheer numbers. Plus, attendance hasn't even begun to top out. And once it does, obviously teams would be able to charge more. Your numbers are based on nothing but your own imagination, so I don't understand why you expect anyone else to provide hard statistical evidence for their own projections

The league is already at a quarter of a billion in revenue, I mean it's not like saying it'll reach a billion some day is crazy talk. You treat MLS like it's Major League Lacrosse when the reality is that it's clearly a solid number 5 sports league.

Originally Posted by Brodie View Post
it would have still made FIFA an absurd amount of money.... '94 was $100 million in straight profit.

MLS is a 15 year old league. 9 of it's 19 teams were founded in the past 6 years. 10 years ago, the league was very nearly insolvent. It's backed by some of the wealthiest men in all of sports, and from top to bottom the league's ownership is something the NHL would kill for. Revenues of $280 million at this point are, to be blunt, incredible. Within the next decade and a half that should easily grow to the billion dollar range.

That implies 15 years.

That would be a 720 million dollar jump.

1. The So called coveted Demo's MLS has got them 12 million from NBC. They get 8 million from ESPN. So 20 million + 10 for all of there international rights. Lets give Canada 5 million for tv money.s

Do you realize MLS had never had a game get 2 million viewers and not one over 1.5 mil since the 90s if ever.

Just getting a legit 1 million viewer game or more has happened 1 time in the last decade. Maybe 2.

MLS ratings probably will go no where as long as more better products keep coming over.

Let me also explain to you..

20,000K x $20 = $400,000K.

If every MLS team aveaged 20 dollars per ticket for 20K per game that would be

16 x 20 teams 320 games x 20,000 = 6.4 mil x 20 = 128 mil from regular season ticket revenue with league wide attendance at 20K which is pretty impressive and not likely anytime soon. MLS is going to stop expanding for a while. And teams now doing great will slip. So expect it to peak then slowly fall.

Also remember Expansion fees have artificially inflated the revenue numbers.

I just don't think you realize how large the gap is between MLS and NHL for that 5th spot. Which NHL doesn't have.

NFL
College Football/MLB
NBA
NHL/College Basketball/Nascar
PGA

Then MLS? Maybe..

it is hard to say.

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2011/09/despite-storm-llws-championship-up-from-10/

Little League World Series Crush any single game MLS has ever had.

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2011/01/bowlings-return-to-abc-rolls-gutter/

Bowling on Cable in 2010 scored higher rating than MLS has ever had.

Indycar, WNBA, AFL and LPGA, college softball and baseball,horse racing, boxing, UFC, WEC, have all had ratings higher than MLS has.


EPL and UEFA have both recently had games rate higher than MLS ever had.

So that leaves MLS and MLL as the only leagues I can find that haven't broken

You will probably reply about how I hate soccer or whatever or rag MLS, yet this is an indisputable fact.

You can't get 1.5 million Americans or more to sit down one time since MLS started to watch a game. And getting over 1 million since 2000 has been a trying task of Beckham or gimmicks like putting an MLS game on after Team USA.

How coveted is 160K 18-49 year olds out of 100 million? or is it 150 million?

I am not trying to sit here and spoil the fun..but we can go over many projections and for MLS to reach 1 billion dollars there is only one way.

they will need about 300 million from National tv, maybe a bit more to do so.

To get that kind of coin they will need a baseline of 1 million viewers per game on tv. cable or national. Maybe more since the product is extremely limited.

Getting 17K paid for 15-16 homes games is nice for MLS. But when you factor empty seats, repeat audience you start to see why MLS gets zero mainstream attention.

I honestly do not get why MLS gets so blown out of proportion.

http://www.ballparkdigest.com/201109194209/attendance/news/2011-baseball-attendance-by-average


If we took average attendance vs games played and divided then many minor league baseball teams would match or beat nearly all MLS teams.

this happens in other sports as well.

Tv is the main barometer. How big can your games get how are you trending.

I do not hate MLS, that is absurd. I just like intellectual honesty.

If someone shows me the data that proves this otherwise I will change my view completely, that is how this works.

 

[Lex Lupul]

Haven't read the thread, but short answer, no. MLS fans are mostly hipsters/people who will cheer for any local sports team. Most real soccer fans in North America still prefer their favorite European team. The stars will always be in Europe and so that's where the money is, and that leaves MLS as a second rate league.

And I actually enjoy watching MLS.

 

[nyrmetros]

Haven't read the thread, but short answer, no. MLS fans are mostly hipsters/people who will cheer for any local sports team. Most real soccer fans in North America still prefer their favorite European team. The stars will always be in Europe and so that's where the money is, and that leaves MLS as a second rate league.

And I actually enjoy watching MLS.

Hipsters are for the most part fake epl fans.... When you go to a Metrostars game, the amount of hipsters that you will find there is almost nil.

 

[Lex Lupul]

Hipsters are for the most part fake epl fans.... When you go to a Metrostars game, the amount of hipsters that you will find there is almost nil.

That's true, there are loads of Chelsea hipsters all over the states, but as much as I like the Sounders, their entire fanbase is scarf wearing hipsters. it's awful.

 

[Brodie]

do you know what else usually rates lower than all those things you named on cable? The NHL.

 

[Melrose Munch]

do you know what else usually rates lower than all those things you named on cable? The NHL.

Burn!

 

[rojac]

do you know what else usually rates lower than all those things you named on cable? The NHL.

In the US, yes. But since the NHL and MLS are in both Canada and the US, you have to include the Canadian numbers as well when you are considering revenue and ratings.

 

[Brodie]

In the US, yes. But since the NHL and MLS are in both Canada and the US, you have to include the Canadian numbers as well when you are considering revenue and ratings.

that's called moving the goalposts

we all know the NHL is more popular than MLS, yet MLS averages the same number of viewers for most regular season matches. The flaw in frivolousz21's logic is in assuming that all growth will be inherently based on current trends. The reality is he couldn't have predicted the growth MLS has experienced in the past half decade 5 years ago. Now can he guess at how, say, MLS matches on NBC will do because MLS hasn't been on a broadcast network in a long time. Ultimately, again, we're talking about a league that's not even 20 years old yet and it's grown to bring in revenues of nearly a quarter billion. Putting restrictions on the potential of that growth strikes me as a lot of scared hockey fans desperately trying to assert their superiority, which also strikes me as silly.

 

[DanZ]

do you know what else usually rates lower than all those things you named on cable? The NHL.

That's not true. Some of those things rate higher, but not all. And the NHL crushes the MLS in ratings anyways so I don't understand your point in relation to this thread.

 

[Melrose Munch]

That's not true. Some of those things rate higher, but not all. And the NHL crushes the MLS in ratings anyways so I don't understand your point in relation to this thread.

Actually they all rate higher. And the NHL does not "crush" the MLS in ratings at all. The MLB and NBA do though He was answer a post that said college sports, EPL and poker had higher ratings than the MLS. But they outrank hockey too.

 

[Brodie]

That's not true. Some of those things rate higher, but not all. And the NHL crushes the MLS in ratings anyways so I don't understand your point in relation to this thread.

The NHL averages a 0.3 rating on Versus, MLS averages a 0.2

crushes

 

[Melrose Munch]

The NHL averages a 0.3 rating on Versus, MLS averages a 0.2

crushes

Melrose Munch approves of this post.

 

[CommunistDayKare]

The NHL averages a 0.3 rating on Versus, MLS averages a 0.2

crushes

and the NHL actually gets advertising too.

I've seen more commercials advertising the MLS on NBC in 2012 than I ever have advertising any MLS game on ESPN


(posting this as i'm watching FC Dallas vs NY Red Bulls on Fox Soccer Channel)

 

[IU Hawks fan]

The NHL averages a 0.3 rating on Versus, MLS averages a 0.2

crushes

It's a well known fact that hockey fans aren't huge watchers of games that aren't their own teams. Baseball is the same way.

I think comparing local ratings gives a better picture.

NHL (Based on 10-11):
Top 5
Pens - 8.68
Sabres - 7.03
Wings - 4.03
Bruins - 3.12
Blues - 3.07

Bottom 5
Kings - .44
Ducks - .37
Isles - .34
Thrashers - .23
Panthers - .16

MLS

Only ones I can find: http://www.ussoccerplayers.com/ussoccerplayers/2011/10/mls-and-local-television.html

Sounders - 3.0
Portland - 2.8
Chicago - .3
Philly - topped at .9, bottom at .5

 

[Renbarg]

The NHL averages a 0.3 rating on Versus, MLS averages a 0.2

crushes

Ratings are ratings.

But what would those ratings looks like if the NHL was on ESPN and MLB was on on VS. MLS enjoys lots of TV sets that are turned on perpetually (or just about) on one of the ESPN channels.

 

[frivolousz21]

Lets get another thing straight while we are dealing with moving goal posts.

1. Every MLS game on ESPN2 is exclusive. Every single one. Which means it is shown in local markets as well as the other 100 million homes ESPN2 reaches.

2. Again ESPN2 is in roughly 100 million homes. Versus is in 76 million.

3. Some of the versus games are non-exclusive so no local markets. Let's see how MLS does without local markets. They would be hard pressed to draw 100K in some cases on ESPN2 not versus.

4. MLS's highest rated game last year was the Final which got 748,000K viewers on ESPN.

NHL's Highest rated game got 8.54 million viewers.


The NHL averaged 1.1 million viewers for the playoffs on versus. That is between 30-40 games.

Half do not include locals which would bump it to the 1.5 mil range.

SCF game 7 drew 18 million viewer between the US and Canada.

and the kicker is it drew 32 million total viewers.

MLS has 3 Canadian teams starting next year, two already so lets not act like both leagues are not trying to be a multi country sport.

On top of that Domestic soccer is far more popular in Canada compared to the US.

On top of that MLS has the latin fans, NHL has zero. NHL has literally almost zero African American fans as well and still manages a SCF that averages 12 million per game between the US and Canada.

So lets stop this ratings are the same because the regular season ratings are crappy.

The MLS has 30 games, NHL has 82.

I am not sure if MLS teams have every game on TV but that is far less soccer to watch locally than it is for NHL fans to watch locally over the same length of season.

MLS also has single game playoffs for the CF and Finals and didn't get over 750K viewers for a single game last year. Again lets stop this insanity.

Brodie, please show me more than personally attacking me for using facts. You said 15 years, one billion. I did most of the work for you.

Just show me how MLS can make 1 billion in revenue in 15 years with a few realistic projections based on today's dollar, not inflation.

Also, explain how tv ratings are going to explode nationally?

I just want intellectually honest fair discussion. That is all. This isn't personal, this is just a topic of conversation.

 

[nyrmetros]

Thoughts from the first wild card playoff game?

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Thoughts from the first wild card playoff game?

unless the thoughts deal with how the game generated money, there is a soccer board they can be discussed in...