Discussion in 'Basketball' started by mymerlincat, Jun 4, 2020.
Do you think Giannis will end up leaving the Bucks in free agency?
I think he likely stays, but I think Golden State and Toronto have an outside shot at him IMO.
Hard to say, but recent history would suggest he's leaving for brighter lights.
He may say differently but Durant had that famous tweet in 2009 expressing his desire to play in OKC for life, so not really taking anything at face value.
Bucks have a much better supporting cast than other recent free agent superstar departures, and there's no hometown NBA team for him to go back to like Kawhi. I think he'll stay for now.
What about Kevin Durant?
It all depends on how the Bucks do on and off the court over the next 12 months. If they win a title then he's staying, if they get to the finals and lose but the Bucks have a great supporting cast he'll probably stay but it won't be certain, and if the Bucks don't win a title and the roster looks no better or regresses, he's gone.
If he is to leave, I'm guessing he'll likely depart to either Toronto, Golden State, Miami or Dallas.
OKC's supporting cast wasn't as good as the Bucks are now. Maybe in 2012. It sounds great when you say they started with 3 future MVPs but by the end they had 0 real shooting threat other than Durant, and both he and Westbrook needed to have the ball, and the fit issue more than mitigated whatever talent advantage Westbrook has over Middleton, while the rest of the Bucks roster was far better on defense and provided far more spacing on offense. The Thunder won 55 games in Durant's final season with Durant playing 36 minutes a game. The Bucks were on a 67 win pace this year with Giannis playing 31 minutes a game - paltry for a superstar - because they were blowing teams out early and often. Plus there's no 2016 Warriors team for Giannis - a team that's clearly way better than his own and that he can't beat.
Right now I kind of doubt if any of the rumored top candidates in 2021 give Giannis a better chance to win a championship than the Bucks. The Warriors core is more talented but their age and injury history and the poor role players beyond Steph, Klay, and Dray are significant knocks. And the drama with KD may be a warning for him. The Heat have more and better young players but Jimmy is older and a worse fit with Giannis than Middleton. No idea what the Raptors roster will look like. I just don't see a competitive reason for him to leave unless the Bucks were upset before the finals or were maybe swept in the Finals. And I remember far more rumors about drama with teammates for guys like Durant and Lebron before they left than with Giannis.
OKC tried to make Durant happy at the end when they traded for Victor Oladipo but Durant was probably mentally gone at that point.
The Bucks are in a better position than the Thunder or the Cavs in 2010 w/ LeBron, but at the end of the day it's his call to make and if they don't win a Championship, well you can probably look forward to another Bucks rebuild.
he'll sign with the lakers to team up with his brother
Giannis refuses to train with NBA players other than his teammates but there was one player he wanted to train with last summer because he saw that player's potential. That would be 22 year old all-star and future superstar, Bam Adebayo. They also share the same agent and he may or may not have asked Giannis to invite Bam to train but lets not focus on minor details like that. It's basically a done deal with Miami.
I'd be OK with a KAJ career trajectory, leaving the Bucks for the Lakers at 28 at the latest.
Does he hit FA this summer?
Summer 2021. But if he doesn't sign his extension after this season is over it will be a strong hint that he wants to leave.
Okay, I agree with all of this. I do think the Bucks are a great team, even without Giannis. But there is also the super-team culture of the NBA that may entice him.
I will be interested if there will be more moves like what Kawhi and KD did this summer: pair themselves with another superstar level player who is clearly just a level below them so they have plenty of help but the credit for "best player on a championship team" isn't in doubt. Kawhi's move in particular seemed extremely shrewd from that perspective. I also wonder if the days of the 3 superstar teams (or 2 superstar+2 more top 20 players in the case of Golden State in 2016) are on hold for cap reasons.
If he signs with klutch sports it will be easy to tell which team he wants to go to. If he ends up on the lakers or warriors though the bucks owners will probably lead a push to change the rules in the next cba to significantly change how player movement works..
Let's say we get really lucky and Giannis were to sign with Toronto as a FA, what would Toronto have to give up to make room for him?
Sorry, pretty new to Basketball and the way they do the cap.
No way to know yet. The Raptors don’t really have anyone other than Siakam on the books by then (Powell has a player option that he’ll likely decline if he continues his level of play) so it’ll depend on what happens with VanVleet, Ibaka etc. It’s tough to project where Lowry and Gasol will be at by then as well.
Ideally they would keep Fred, OG, Pascal and Terence Davis but 3 out of the 4 will be a lot more expensive by then so it’s tough to project.
I appreciate the reply.
Yeah, Gasol and Lowry are approaching the wrong side of 30.
I'd hate to give either of them up as they were both key pieces to the championship run(Lowry has been such an important piece to the team this last decade too, I'd like to see him retire a Raptor), but we will likely have to look at other options down the line, or they'll have to take a team friendly deal.
That said, I've seen the shape Gasol is in right now, he's hungry and his injury is completely healed, so I'm interested to see what he does for us once it all starts again.
Only way he should stay is if he gets ownership stake. Team was on the verge of relocation. He got them a new arena and worth almost 2 bill. You want me to stay in Milwaukee and convince others to come here? I need stake or I'm taking the same money you can offer to live in LA or somewhere else. Simple as that.
Maybe naive thinking on my part but I expect he stays because he should realize that Bucks are primed to dominate weak East for next decade with him
Winning titles still matters to players right? Because staying with Buck in East is best path to achieve that IMO
I think letting Kyle Lowry ride it out is a top priority as long as the money doesn’t limit the roster going forward. If he expects to be paid like a top 10 PG after next year than it becomes a tough decision assuming Fred re-signs.
For Gasol it’ll depend how much he thinks he’s worth. I’d like to have him back as well, but I think it’ll be challenging to pay both him and Ibaka. If they have to choose it probably makes more sense to bring back Serge as he’s younger with a lot more in the tank. He’s coming off a career year and seems like he’s found a home here.
Its certainly going to be hard to get other star players to move to Milwaukee and sign there.
Once he's gone then they never have a chance. Then what? His decision is pretty much the fate of the franchise. He stays and maybe convinces some players to come and win some Championships and build a winning culture. Something to build on once he retires. He leaves then they are slowly back to pre-Giannis. That's why if I was him I need ownership stake to stay and retire there.
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