Will Crosby ever win another Art Ross?

[Troubadour]

Just because player is past his peak doesn't mean he can' still put up some remarkable play. "Not like his former self" Ovechkin is also a player who has 3 50+ season in last 4 years with a realistic shot of making it 4 in last 5. The argument is not whether or not he can do better than his absolute peak anyway. But whether he can put up elite seasons still, which he can (as proven this year). And I'd argue same for Crosby.

LOL, no. The argument is whether Sid can or cannot win the Art. You brought up Ovechkin who improved on his last year. But does he challenge the leading scorers for the Art? No. That would require his best.

So Sid may play better next year or the year after, but that still does not mean he has a realistic chance to win the Art again.

 

[Leonhard Euler]

LOL, no. The argument is whether Sid can or cannot win the Art. You brought up Ovechkin who improved on his last year. But does he challenge the leading scorers for the Art? No. That would require his best.

So Sid may play better next year or the year after, but that still does not mean he has a realistic chance to win the Art again.

Well let's agree to disagree then. I think he does have realistic chance he was on a 97 pace last year when 100 was enough for art ross. Is he favored to win it? No, and noone is arguing that. The question is whether he has realistic chance. You think he does not and I think he does. That's all there is to it.
I brought up Ovechkin as an example of a great player who had terrible year and bounced back big time the next.

 

[Sam Spade]

But he very well may win another PPG Art Ross. He has 6 already

Also just to refresh some peoples memory. A lot of guys called Ovechkin done after last year. Look at him now. There are some players who have earned and deserve our benefit of the doubt. And Crosby is at the top of that list of players.

Ovechkin hurt his arm/wrist on Nov. 17th, 2016, but as he always does, he just kept playing. Who knows how much that affected his goal scoring?

 

[mja]

Sure. If there's one takeaway from a year that's seen guys like Malkin, Giroux, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Hall, Voracek, & Eric Staal all have resurgent seasons, it's that down seasons are a thing and not necessarily indicative of some inescapable decline.

 

[Troubadour]

Well let's agree to disagree then. I think he does have realistic chance he was on a 97 pace last year when 100 was enough for art ross. Is he favored to win it? No, and noone is arguing that. The question is whether he has realistic chance. You think he does not and I think he does. That's all there is to it.
I brought up Ovechkin as an example of a great player who had terrible year and bounced back big time the next.

No, I didn't say he does not. I just pointed out that Ovechkin's ability to lose some fat during summer and the fact he looks better this year does not make Sid's chances any better. If you read my first post, I see his chance as decent for the next two years. Past 33 though, (almost) no way. Unless something terrible happens with the current generation. And lest we forget, there will be new guys coming to the league. It will keep getting harder. And once Malkin (who is even older) declines, it won't do any favors to Sid either.

Plenty of things can happen still, but it will keep getting harder.

 

[Leonhard Euler]

Ovechkin hurt his arm/wrist on Nov. 17th, 2016, but as he always does, he just kept playing. Who knows how much that affected his goal scoring?

Yeah. I mean if we look at it it seemed as too ridiculous of a drop of for it to be organic decline anyway. Something must have gone wrong.

 

[Rygu]

I think he will. He's too good not to.

 

[McBaevid]

If I had to bet I'd say no, but I wouldn't be surprised if he won another before he retires

 

[Leonhard Euler]

No, I didn't say he does not. I just pointed out that Ovechkin's ability to lose some fat during summer and the fact he looks better this year does not make Sid's chances any better. If you read my first post, I see his chance as decent for next two years. Past 33 though, (almost) no way. Unless something terrible happens with the current generation. And lest we forget, there will be new guys coming to the league. It will keep getting harder. And as Malkin declines, it won't do any favors to Sid either.

Plenty of things can happen still, but it will keep getting harder.

Right I guess just a misunderstanding then, no biggie. Well I obviously don' think the fact Ovi does better has anything to do with Sids chances, that would be ridiculous. Again I only brought it up as an example that I would not completely write off one of the (likely THE) greatest payers of this generation because they are having an off year, that's all.

 

[DitchMarner]

It's always possible with him but I think we're witnessing a changing of the guard, or at least the beginning of it. Laine is drawing even with Ovechkin and McDavid is drawing even with or has possibly surpassed Crosby (offensively).

Crosby in particular has a lot of mileage and opponents have always played hard against him, so we might see the accumulated wear and tear start to take its toll in the next 2-3 years.

The last two seasons:

McDavid: 1.23 PPG

Crosby: 1.12 PPG

 

[Empoleon8771]

The safe bet would be no, but then again, the safe bet was also no for him winning another Richard. Crosby has struggled to score at ES this year compared to where he's normally scoring at, so it's not a surprise to see his production is down.

The only player I think would be a safe bet to produce more than him in a given season is McDavid, so if McDavid gets hurt, he's probably the favorite for the Art Ross in any given year. Different players have outproduced Crosby over the last few years, but would you buy on any of them outproducing Crosby in any given year? I wouldn't.

 

[TGWL]

This year was wide open for the Art Ross. I don't know if I can see everybody in the race being there again for the next few years, so anything can happen. I think the speed of the came is going to open up a lot more points for some players, so if I had to put money down I'd say no.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

let's hope not

 

[OldManGroin]

If you give Crosby, say, 15% chance to win it next year, and 10% chance to win it in each of the following three years, his chance to win it in the next four years would be 38%. And those are probably very generous percentages considering how overwhelming the field is versus a single player.

Thats not how those stats would work.

Do you even math bro ?

 

[blundluntman]

Nah. He's only getting older (albeit not that quickly,) and guys like Mcdavid, Matthews, Mack, Kucherov etc are only getting better. Never know with a guy like him though.

 

[Laineux]

Thats not how those stats would work.

Do you even math bro ?

.85*.9*.9*.9 to get the probability of Crosby not winning the Art Ross.

What is the flaw here?

 

[Plural]

The last two seasons:

McDavid: 1.23 PPG

Crosby: 1.12 PPG

Surprisingly enough, three past seasons combined Sid is not top-3 in PPG. McDavid, Malkin, Kane and Kucherov (albeit Kuch is only ahead marginally) are all ahead of him. Still, that's amazing for a player to be top-5 in PPG through three seasons. But for Sid, that's probably his worst stretch compared to his peers ever.

 

[Plural]

Another "interesting" thing is that we all have been sure for years now that Crosby will surpass OV in career points. It seems pretty certain that it won't happen this year either. Not important in any ways and not meant as a comparison of these two. But it's crazy how sure we all were that Crosby will overtake Ovechkin in career points at least two seasons a go.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Lol,nope.

 

[Sam Spade]

Another "interesting" thing is that we all have been sure for years now that Crosby will surpass OV in career points. It seems pretty certain that it won't happen this year either. Not important in any ways and not meant as a comparison of these two. But it's crazy how sure we all were that Crosby will overtake Ovechkin in career points at least two seasons a go.

By game twenty next season he probably will but as an Ovechkin fan I can at least enjoy one more off season before the deluge of "Crosby is better than Ovechkin career wise" posts.

 

[OldManGroin]

.85*.9*.9*.9 to get the probability of Crosby not winning the Art Ross.

What is the flaw here?

Lets just say its 10% for each of the next 4 years instead of 15% and descending just for simplified purposes.

That makes a grand total of 40% instead of your 38%.

Its 10% out of 100% per season.

You added up 4 years of chances into 1 season. Math doesnt work that way.

It would be 40% ( or your 38% ) out of 400%.

Which still beings his avg chance of winning to 10% a year for next 4 years.

 

[Plural]

Lets just say its 10% for each of the next 4 years instead of 15% and descending just for simplified purposes.

That makes a grand total of 40% instead of your 38%.

Its 10% out of 100% per season.

You added up 4 years of chances into 1 season. Math doesnt work that way.

It would be 40% ( or your 38% ) out of 400%.

Which still beings his avg chance of winning to 10% a year for next 4 years.

What?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Didn't really notice him last night against the Isles. At times I think he is just saving it for the playoffs. I don't think art Ross is his focus. The cup is and perhaps he saves himself for the post season. So from that perspective I will say he will not win another AR.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I think he’s going to need a long summer to challenge for it. If the Pens keep on going deep in the playoffs year after year, it always increases the likelyhood for the whole team to have off nights in the regular season. He’s not quite Geno who when he goes beastmode will just pile ridiculous point totals, it’s all about consistency with Sid.

Im sure Pens fans rather see the team win but yeah i think as far as individual seasons go sometimes it’s a bit of a boost if you have a dip one season (which for the Pens would be early playoff exit).

To win the art ross you have to be emotionally invested pretty much every night is what im saying. That’s where the younger guys with more to prove individually and team-wise have the advantage, definitely tough competition moving forward with McDavid, Kucherov, MacKinnon etc

 

[Midnight Judges]

It is unlikely that a player who could only manage 2 art rosses through 13 seasons of their prime is going to defy the odds and improve into their 30's.

I'd bet against it.

Sidney Crosby not even a top 30 player this season - 15th in scoring, heavily dependent on secondary assists (which account for more than 33% of his points), heavily dependent on ice time with Malkin, Letang and Kessel to lift his scoring, and a minus player on a very good team (Malkin is +18).