Why Matthew Tkachuk should win the Calder

[Duffalufagus]

Nope. But I appreciate the work and it's a good testament for how good of a season he had. Looking bright for this kid. Hope he keeps developing like he has.

well articulated rebuttal!

The OP nailed that analysis.

 

[THall4]

This.

As for Tkachuk, I completely underestimated him. He would go so perfectly with Kadri for our long-term skilled shutdown unit.

Imagine:
Bracco - Matthews - Brown
Tkachuk - Kadri - Kapanen
JVR - Nylander - Marner

FYI - if the leafs took Tkachuk..there would be no Matthews.

 

[JPeeper]

Tkachuk was and is a beast, but Matthews/Werenski/Laine deserve to be top 3 in voting.

This is one of the strongest rookie classes I can recall where even the 5th, 6th or 7th guy could make a case to be nominated.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

IMO, he's just a product of Backlund.

5v5 with Backlund: 61.9% GF, 57.1% CF
5v5 without Backlund: 42.9% GF, 49.8% CF

Now, do me a favour and don't look at Backlund's stats without Tkachuk. Please?

Ignoring the fact that he literally spent >80% of his time with Backlund (leaving precious little for reliable data outside of that time), a freshly-drafted rookie posting almost 50% CF is extremely good. Particularly considering his next most frequent linemates were Troy "Bermuda Triangle" Brouwer and a struggling Sam Bennett.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Ignoring the fact that he literally spent >80% of his time with Backlund (leaving precious little for reliable data outside of that time), a freshly-drafted rookie posting almost 50% CF is extremely good. Particularly considering his next most frequent linemates were Troy "Bermuda Triangle" Brouwer and a struggling Sam Bennett.

And yeah Backlund's number were downright awful without Tkachuk.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

At first I thought. Flames fan off his rocker. Tkachuk is a great player and deserves some recognition for a great season but realistically not a Calder worthy guy. Especially since the Calder is almost exclusively based on points. But then I thought about it...

And I gotta give props for two reasons. One, because Tkachuk deserves the attention for his good play (although not his cheap play). Two, because it really shows how desperately Leafs fans want to make more out of Mathews than there really is.

Mathews "elite defense" is questionable at best. His quality of competition relatively low. His zone starts nothing short of sheltered. Puts things into perspective how much narrative is being fabricated out of leafs fans mania.

Not to say Mathews isnt a great player and worthy of the Calder, but this thread puts some nice perspective on his performance.

Totally agree that Leafs fans don't need to make anything more of their league and franchise record breaking 40 goal scoring rookie center who played exclusively with rookies all year while performing exceptionally well defensively considering his position, linemates, cast of defenceman, and age.

Sounds like your perspective on his performance is the one that's air tight buddy

 

[ScaredStreit]

I like Tkachuk and all...but no. By your logic Samuel Henley should win the Calder. He scored 1 goal in 1 game...so he would have scored an NHL record of 82 goals as a rookie.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

IMO, he's just a product of Backlund.

5v5 with Backlund: 61.9% GF, 57.1% CF
5v5 without Backlund: 42.9% GF, 49.8% CF

So Backlund is all of a sudden Sidney Crosby? Backs just had the best regular season of his career with an 18/19yo rookie on his wing. It's not like he's a perennial Hart candidate.

Ignoring the fact that he literally spent >80% of his time with Backlund (leaving precious little for reliable data outside of that time), a freshly-drafted rookie posting almost 50% CF is extremely good. Particularly considering his next most frequent linemates were Troy "Bermuda Triangle" Brouwer and a struggling Sam Bennett.

Actually, when Bennett centered Tkachuk the two were 51.3% CF together over 55:49 and that was all before the formation of the Giordano-Hamilton pair. Remove Brouwer from that mix and you have Tkachuk-Bennett-X at 62.2% CF over 25:54. In fact Tkachuk away from Backlund, but also away from Brouwer, is a 52.7% CF player. That was also early in the season where Tkachuk was still adjusting to NHL speed.

No one could carry Troy Brouwer. He is simply an AHLer.

 

[Kcoyote3]

I like Tkachuk and all...but no. By your logic Samuel Henley should win the Calder. He scored 1 goal in 1 game...so he would have scored an NHL record of 82 goals as a rookie.

Responses like yours are the reasons why putting any effort into making a thread is stupid. No that is not my reasoning. At all.

 

[Cory Trevor]

34 goal rookie is enough for me.

 

[ScaredStreit]

Responses like yours are the reasons why putting any effort into making a thread is stupid. No that is not my reasoning. At all.

With all due respect you're suggesting that Tkachuk-a guy who had a very good rookie season-should win the Calder over a rookie who was 2nd in the NHL in goals. You made a ridiculous claim...what exactly did you expect? There's a reason why nobody's agreeing with you.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

Responses like yours are the reasons why putting any effort into making a thread is stupid. No that is not my reasoning. At all.

You would have generated more productive discussion and had your content acknowledged if you drew a more realistic conclusion from the data, such as "Tkatchuk's rookie season needs more attention" as opposed to unfairly comparing it to some historic rookie campaigns that will definitely not be undermined by impressive underlying stats.

 

[Iapyi]

suggestion. learn how to watch hockey and you won't need to rely on useless statistical arguments.

 

[kingsfan28]

So advanced stats will now determine ROTY over goals and points?

 

[chunkylover53]

Tkachuk's underlying number's already put him in the NHLs elite two way wingers. Dominates possession, high QoC, defensive zone starts, makes his teammates better etc.
That being said, he ain't winning, just as Bergeron might win Selke but nothing else.

 

[Lunatik]

Tkachuk won't and shouldn't win the Calder. This is coming from a Flames fan.

 

[Caged Great]

Usage and possession isn't going to overtake a 20 point lead though.

Matt had a terrific rookie season though, but I'd be curious to see how he performed away from Backlund and Frolik. Particularly the former puts up these kinds of numbers habitually, and that line has been together almost exclusively from what I've gathered. When there's not much player movement, possession stats become line stats more than player stats.

He played briefly with Bennett and Brouwer in October.

Coincidentally, that was the best Brouwer played through the entire season. Bennett played well in the last month of the season, but the next best time was when he was with Tkachuk.

Tkachuk struggled with the pair of them, and that's why he was put with Backlund and Frolik. He needed someone to play with at the level he was able to. Backlund coincidentally had his best season of his career as well. Tkachuk was largely responsible. Not saying that Tkachuk was pulling Backlund along, but rather they were bouncing off each other making the whole better than the sum of their parts.

He might be the most important player in the Flames organization. Just have to let him grow further.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

So Backlund is all of a sudden Sidney Crosby? Backs just had the best regular season of his career with an 18/19yo rookie on his wing. It's not like he's a perennial Hart candidate.



Actually, when Bennett centered Tkachuk the two were 51.3% CF together over 55:49 and that was all before the formation of the Giordano-Hamilton pair. Remove Brouwer from that mix and you have Tkachuk-Bennett-X at 62.2% CF over 25:54. In fact Tkachuk away from Backlund, but also away from Brouwer, is a 52.7% CF player. That was also early in the season where Tkachuk was still adjusting to NHL speed.

No one could carry Troy Brouwer. He is simply an AHLer.

We can both agree on Brouwer, but we shouldn't ignore how good Backlund is. I mean, no, he won't win a Hart trophy since he doesn't post the numbers required to do so, but he's an extremely good two-way forward. Each player on the 3M line is a good player in his own right (Backlund currently being the best, although Tkachuk looks potentially on track to become an elite player).

 

[Atomos2]

...

A calder winning forward needs more than 13 goals.

/thread

 

[TOGuy14]

Thachuk is a solid player, but not even in the top three let alone a candidate to actually win the Calder

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I'm glad a Flames fan didn't make this thread. Tkachuk had a great rookie season but his advanced stats were definitely boosted by playing with Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik, who are fancy stats beasts. Still very excited to have Tkachuk on the team.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Matthews wins. Using OPS logic mcdavid wins last year

 

[SmellOfVictory]

...

A calder winning forward needs more than 13 goals.

/thread

I wanted to be pedantic and go back to find a Calder winning forward who had 13 or fewer goals... And there was only one. In 1938.

Interestingly, there have been a handful with 14 goals, including Huberdeau, but overall 14 seems to be the de facto cutoff.

 

[Atomos2]

I wanted to be pedantic and go back to find a Calder winning forward who had 13 or fewer goals... And there was only one. In 1938.

Interestingly, there have been a handful with 14 goals, including Huberdeau, but overall 14 seems to be the de facto cutoff.

I was hoping someone would try and call me out on that. I'm guessing those 14 huberdeau goals are probably from the shortened season too eh? Honestly u can't expect to be taken seriously as the calder contender with thirteen goals unless u have a **** ton of assists and Tkachuk wasn't even the leader in that category.

 

[The Missing Piece]

I wanted to be pedantic and go back to find a Calder winning forward who had 13 or fewer goals... And there was only one. In 1938.

Interestingly, there have been a handful with 14 goals, including Huberdeau, but overall 14 seems to be the de facto cutoff.

Now check to see how many scored 40 or more and didn't win the calder?