Why Matthew Tkachuk should win the Calder

[TMLFOREVER**]

While again I'm not trying to hold my argument to being about TOI/G, I had to respond because it's hilarious that you called my math flawed while having extremely flawed math in your first paragraph.

Let's say Tkachuk played 3 minutes less per game than Matthews (which he did).

Tkachuk scored at a rate of 2.58 points per 60 minutes.

For 76 games (how much he played) X 3 minutes per game, that equals 228 minutes of play.

A rate of 2.58/60 minutes X 228 minutes = 9.8 points, round out to 10.

So next time you want to just say "MATH FLAWED!", check your own math first.

My math is sound. Nice try though. It really doesn't matter how you get there just as long as you get there. It translates to 4 points but it is moot anyway.

And don't get angry when people respond to such a silly post. You made a thread about how Tkachuk had a better season than Matthews, Laine, Marner, Nylandet, werenski and murray. Tkachuk is right were he deserves to be.

You can't just say things because you like him. You have to disprove those in front of him and good luck with that.

 

[10Ducky10]

The top 6 rookie scorers this season:

1. Auston Matthews, 69 points
2. Patrik Laine, 64 points
3. William Nylander, 61 points
4. Mitchell Marner, 61 points
5. Sebastian Aho, 49 points
6. Matthew Tkachuk, 48 points

Seems pretty clear right? Matthews wins this hands down right?

Top 6 rookies, TOI/G:

1. Auston Matthews, 17:37 Total, 2:27 PP
2. Patrik Laine, 17:54 Total, 2:43 PP
3. William Nylander, 16:00 Total, 2:21 PP
4. Mitchell Marner, 16:48 Total, 2:22 PP
5. Sebastian Aho, 16:47 Total, 2:13 PP
6. Matthew Tkachuk, 14:39 Total, 2:00 PP

So Tkachuk got about 2-3 minutes less total TOI/G and about 20-25 seconds less PP TOI/G than his top 5. Alright, pretty interesting. Not surprising he put up a few less points throughout the course of the year. Interesting to note Tkachuk's 5 on 5 production/60 is comparable to Matthew's (2.06 vs 2.12). But we're just getting started.

Top 6 Rookies GF%, CF%, GF% relative/team (5 on 5):

1. Auston Matthews, 51.1, 51.4, 4.2
2. Patrik Laine, 53.6, 47.6, 5.9
3. William Nylander, 48.7, 52.4, -3.2
4. Mitchell Marner, 54.4, 50.2, 6.0
5. Sebastian Aho, 49.4, 53.4, 2.9
6. Matthew Tkachuk, 58.4, 55.9, 19.7

So Tkachuk beat out the top 5 HANDEDLY in both GF% and CF%, and destroyed all-comers in GF% relative/team, leading Calgary in that area, in case you thought this was just because Calgary is the better team (even though Matthews/Nylander/Marner all played on a team with the same amount of points as Calgary). Tkachuk was also SECOND in the entire NHL this year in GF% relative/team for all skaters who skated over 750 minutes this season.


Then the final nail in the coffin. Usage stats. Holy moley. In case you're unfamiliar, it basically shows where on average a player will start based off where they take the face-off. Offensive zone (OZFO%), neutral zone (NZFO%), defensive zone (DZFO%). The idea being you start your defensively sound players in the defensive zone and neutral zone, and your offensive players in the offensive zone (or players you don't believe are as sound in the other zones).

Usage Stats top 6 rookies:

1. Auston Matthews, OZFO%: 40.7, NZFO%: 35.7, DZFO%: 23.7
2. Patrik Laine, OZFO%: 35.9, NZFO%: 34.5, DZFO%: 29.6
3. William Nylander, OZFO%: 34.9, NZFO%: 37.3, DZFO%: 27.8
4. Mitchell Marner, OZFO%: 39.8, NZFO%: 28.6, DZFO%: 31.6
5. Sebastian Aho, OZFO%: 32.8, NZFO%: 38.6, DZFO%: 28.6
6. Matthew Tkachuk, OZFO%: 22.2, NZFO%: 36.8, DZFO%: 41.0

Tkachuk is starting just 22.2% of his shifts in the offensive zone, almost HALF of Matthews. No other player in the top 5 is below 32%. He started 41% of his shifts in the defensive zone, no other player in the top 5 is above 32%.

If you're wondering how ridiculous 22.2% is for shifts in the offensive zone, it's 6th in the NHL for players who played over 750 minutes this season. The other 5 players (Kruger, Stajan, Mitchell, Watson, Beagle) all had 30 points or less this year (Beagle at 30), most had less than 20 points. Tkachuk meanwhile almost put up 50 points.

So I went back and I checked as far back as I could for rookies who had that low of offensive zone draws. I found nothing. No rookies in the last 10 years (who have played 750 minutes in one season) have gotten fewer offensive zone faceoff draws than Tkachuk. And if there are some before that, or somehow I missed one, I guarantee they got nowhere near the production Tkachuk did.

So to recap: Tkachuk finished 6th in scoring, scoring 48 points on the year. He did that in about 3 minutes less ice time, 25 seconds less PP ice time, scored at nearly the same rate 5 on 5 as the leader Matthews, had SIGNIFICANTLY better GF% and CF% than the rest of the top 5, led his team in GF% relative/team, was 2nd in the NHL in GF% relative/team, while starting in the offensive zone HALF the time as the leader Matthews, and starting in the defensive zone significantly more than every other rookie, and got fewer offensive zone faceoff draws than any rookie in the last 10 years.

And that's why he should win the Calder.

I have one reason whey he won't win the Calder...he isn't nominated.

 

[BigRangy]

Cool analysis. I definitely was 100% against drafting him least year, glad to be wrong, though Keller might still prove me right. Tkachuk had a great season but when someone else scored 40 goals it's no contest really.

I wonder if he gets any Selke votes?

When the Flames play the Kings, Gaudreau/Monahan are who we cover with our top shutdown guys - Doughty and Kopitar at home, not Tkachuk.

When the Leafs play us, Matthews is who we cover with our best shutdown guys.

On this note, when the Flames play the Kings, Tkachuk/Backlund/Frolik is the line sent out to handle Kopitar. When they play the Leafs, they're the line sent out to handle Matthews.

I don't know exactly how Matthews is used, but in the few games I did watch of his he did seem to more aware defensively than the other recently drafted supertalents.

 

[lawrence]

end thread. The experts on hfboards.com already told me the guy as good as McDavid will win it.

 

[Leafidelity]

end thread. The experts on hfboards.com already told me the guy as good as McDavid will win it.

Along with the - you know - actual experts.

 

[Halla]

Would've been happy with this guy if the Leafs got screwed in the lottery.

assuming edmonton won again and the leafs were 4th, i think they may have taken puljujarvi 4OA

 

[Sniper99]

Dont forget another useless Corsi category

Slew Foot attempts and completions.
There was definitely a handful this year.

Oh and most mouthguards chews in a season. He went through mouthguards like they were gum on that bench and in play.

 

[Steve]

I really like Tkachuk but he's not the best rookie. You could certainly argue the 3rd best though

 

[Nithoniniel]

Yeah and that's my point he was using Tkachuk's numbers away from Backlund (a 150 minute sample size) to say that Tkachuk was carried by Backlund. I just pointed out that in the small time they were apart Tkachuk was better off than Backlund was. He was trying to claim the opposite that Tkachuk tanked away from Backlund and that Backlund was responsible for his success.

Interesting. However, Backlund has a vast history of producing terrific possession and expected goals stats in tough usage. We have a whole lot to go on.

I'd take that sample size that you were mentioning and chalk it down to "team tried to use different lines, they didn't work at all" more than something to hold against either player.

I still think the general theory is viable. We know Backlund and, to a lesser extent, Frolik drive these kind of numbers. We know that a third part of such a line would, if the line chemistry worked, also get good numbers. Tkachuk did better than expected in that role and those circumstances, which is to his credit for sure. I'd just be hesitant to attribute him with the gaudy numbers until we've seen more.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Those advanced stats are meant to compliment his raw stats. His raw stats aren't even close.

This.

As for Tkachuk, I completely underestimated him. He would go so perfectly with Kadri for our long-term skilled shutdown unit.

Imagine:
Bracco - Matthews - Brown
Tkachuk - Kadri - Kapanen
JVR - Nylander - Marner

 

[tony d]

Yeah, Matthews is winning the Calder. Still Tkachuk had a great season ans is going to be a very good player in the league for a long time to come.

 

[BWDude]

Where can you get the QoC stats?

Because I'm pretty sure by the end of the season and the playoffs for sure, Matthews line, especially in away games, got the majority of opposing shutdown lines and top pairing defensemen. Really tough to get harder competition than that.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Where can you get the QoC stats?

Because I'm pretty sure by the end of the season and the playoffs for sure, Matthews line, especially in away games, got the majority of opposing shutdown lines and top pairing defensemen. Really tough to get harder competition than that.

Actually in terms of opponent's GF% and opponent's CF% (when not playing the player), Tkachuk once again led all rookies in the top 5. Meaning on average he played an opponent that is tougher than the rookies ahead of him.


Opponent's GF%:

Tkachuk 50.6
Matthews 50.1
Nylander 49.7
Marner 49.4

Opponent's CF%:
Tkachuk 50.5
Matthews 50.1
Nylander 50.3
Marner 50.1

 

[Kcoyote3]

My math is sound. Nice try though. It really doesn't matter how you get there just as long as you get there. It translates to 4 points but it is moot anyway.

And don't get angry when people respond to such a silly post. You made a thread about how Tkachuk had a better season than Matthews, Laine, Marner, Nylandet, werenski and murray. Tkachuk is right were he deserves to be.

You can't just say things because you like him. You have to disprove those in front of him and good luck with that.

It doesn't translate to 4 points. Again, I don't care, but just saying it does doesn't make it true.

And I didn't just "say things cause I like him", I don't even like the guy, I'm a Sharks fan. I actually laid out an argument using statistics why he had such a great season.

 

[Gavy]

Tkachuk isnt even top 5 nvm winning

 

[Sniper99]

You can provide all those useless corsi stats you want, in the end the guy wasn't even nominated for Calder. **** happens deal with it. He shouldn't win calder and he wont

 

[sessiroth]

I really like Tkachuk but he's not the best rookie. You could certainly argue the 3rd best though

No you cant. Werenski put up almost identical offensive numbers and he's a dmen. Nylander and Marner both put up 60+ points seasons, tkachuk didn't even hit 50.


So thats Matthews, Laine, Werenski, Nylander, Marner are all a cut above.

Even after those guys he's battling with Aho and Provorov for the next set of players.

Man, the hockey IQ around here drops by the day. durp, tkachuk scored 13 goals.... give him the calder!!!! durp.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Dont forget another useless Corsi category

Slew Foot attempts and completions.
There was definitely a handful this year.

Oh and most mouthguards chews in a season. He went through mouthguards like they were gum on that bench and in play.

What do you think the on-ice value of a Tkachuk slewfoot vs a Draisaitl nut spear is? Do we have any analytics for that?

 

[TheBigThree]

Who cares about toi, goals and points win games. Which you know...is the most important thing in a competitive sport.

 

[Mitchy]

Tkachuk had a great year and indeed was a great possession player, but his counting stats just aren't close enough to justify picking him to be the winner.

Matthews wasn't a great possession (he was just decent) player, but his other underlying stats were terrific. He was second in the league in generating high danger chances (behind McDavid) and was first in the league individual expected goals for. In short, a monster at creating offence.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

I wanted the Blues to trade half the team for that pick last year. He's going to be great.

But he had 13 goals. That's not good enough most years especially but especially with the quality we had this year. There's just no way.

 

[Steve]

No you cant. Werenski put up almost identical offensive numbers and he's a dmen. Nylander and Marner both put up 60+ points seasons, tkachuk didn't even hit 50.


So thats Matthews, Laine, Werenski, Nylander, Marner are all a cut above.

Even after those guys he's battling with Aho and Provorov for the next set of players.

Man, the hockey IQ around here drops by the day. durp, tkachuk scored 13 goals.... give him the calder!!!! durp.

i don't say he would be #3. I suggested that he/she could simply make an argument for it. I would pick Werenski also but I think we can agree that the first tier is Matthews and Laine followed by another group group of 5-10 players in which Tkachuk could be included. Just for reference I am a Leland fan and agree that Marner and Nylander are superior but I'm open to debate. Same goes for Provorov, Werenski, Aho etc...

The IQ around here certainly does drop daily.

 

[Daniel M]

 

[oobga]

IMO, he's just a product of Backlund.

5v5 with Backlund: 61.9% GF, 57.1% CF
5v5 without Backlund: 42.9% GF, 49.8% CF

Now, do me a favour and don't look at Backlund's stats without Tkachuk. Please?

 

[Jets012]

[mod]

Tkachuk isn't winning Calder. But this thread is a fantastic example of how underrated he is.