Why Matthew Tkachuk should win the Calder

[Kcoyote3]

The top 6 rookie scorers this season:

1. Auston Matthews, 69 points
2. Patrik Laine, 64 points
3. William Nylander, 61 points
4. Mitchell Marner, 61 points
5. Sebastian Aho, 49 points
6. Matthew Tkachuk, 48 points

Seems pretty clear right? Matthews wins this hands down right?

Top 6 rookies, TOI/G:

1. Auston Matthews, 17:37 Total, 2:27 PP
2. Patrik Laine, 17:54 Total, 2:43 PP
3. William Nylander, 16:00 Total, 2:21 PP
4. Mitchell Marner, 16:48 Total, 2:22 PP
5. Sebastian Aho, 16:47 Total, 2:13 PP
6. Matthew Tkachuk, 14:39 Total, 2:00 PP

So Tkachuk got about 2-3 minutes less total TOI/G and about 20-25 seconds less PP TOI/G than his top 5. Alright, pretty interesting. Not surprising he put up a few less points throughout the course of the year. Interesting to note Tkachuk's 5 on 5 production/60 is comparable to Matthew's (2.06 vs 2.12). But we're just getting started.

Top 6 Rookies GF%, CF%, GF% relative/team (5 on 5):

1. Auston Matthews, 51.1, 51.4, 4.2
2. Patrik Laine, 53.6, 47.6, 5.9
3. William Nylander, 48.7, 52.4, -3.2
4. Mitchell Marner, 54.4, 50.2, 6.0
5. Sebastian Aho, 49.4, 53.4, 2.9
6. Matthew Tkachuk, 58.4, 55.9, 19.7

So Tkachuk beat out the top 5 HANDEDLY in both GF% and CF%, and destroyed all-comers in GF% relative/team, leading Calgary in that area, in case you thought this was just because Calgary is the better team (even though Matthews/Nylander/Marner all played on a team with the same amount of points as Calgary). Tkachuk was also SECOND in the entire NHL this year in GF% relative/team for all skaters who skated over 750 minutes this season.


Then the final nail in the coffin. Usage stats. Holy moley. In case you're unfamiliar, it basically shows where on average a player will start based off where they take the face-off. Offensive zone (OZFO%), neutral zone (NZFO%), defensive zone (DZFO%). The idea being you start your defensively sound players in the defensive zone and neutral zone, and your offensive players in the offensive zone (or players you don't believe are as sound in the other zones).

Usage Stats top 6 rookies:

1. Auston Matthews, OZFO%: 40.7, NZFO%: 35.7, DZFO%: 23.7
2. Patrik Laine, OZFO%: 35.9, NZFO%: 34.5, DZFO%: 29.6
3. William Nylander, OZFO%: 34.9, NZFO%: 37.3, DZFO%: 27.8
4. Mitchell Marner, OZFO%: 39.8, NZFO%: 28.6, DZFO%: 31.6
5. Sebastian Aho, OZFO%: 32.8, NZFO%: 38.6, DZFO%: 28.6
6. Matthew Tkachuk, OZFO%: 22.2, NZFO%: 36.8, DZFO%: 41.0

Tkachuk is starting just 22.2% of his shifts in the offensive zone, almost HALF of Matthews. No other player in the top 5 is below 32%. He started 41% of his shifts in the defensive zone, no other player in the top 5 is above 32%.

If you're wondering how ridiculous 22.2% is for shifts in the offensive zone, it's 6th in the NHL for players who played over 750 minutes this season. The other 5 players (Kruger, Stajan, Mitchell, Watson, Beagle) all had 30 points or less this year (Beagle at 30), most had less than 20 points. Tkachuk meanwhile almost put up 50 points.

So I went back and I checked as far back as I could for rookies who had that low of offensive zone draws. I found nothing. No rookies in the last 10 years (who have played 750 minutes in one season) have gotten fewer offensive zone faceoff draws than Tkachuk. And if there are some before that, or somehow I missed one, I guarantee they got nowhere near the production Tkachuk did.

So to recap: Tkachuk finished 6th in scoring, scoring 48 points on the year. He did that in about 3 minutes less ice time, 25 seconds less PP ice time, scored at nearly the same rate 5 on 5 as the leader Matthews, had SIGNIFICANTLY better GF% and CF% than the rest of the top 5, led his team in GF% relative/team, was 2nd in the NHL in GF% relative/team, while starting in the offensive zone HALF the time as the leader Matthews, and starting in the defensive zone significantly more than every other rookie, and got fewer offensive zone faceoff draws than any rookie in the last 10 years.

And that's why he should win the Calder.

Click to read more...

 

[Plural]

Nope. But I appreciate the work and it's a good testament for how good of a season he had. Looking bright for this kid. Hope he keeps developing like he has.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Usage and possession isn't going to overtake a 20 point lead though.

Matt had a terrific rookie season though, but I'd be curious to see how he performed away from Backlund and Frolik. Particularly the former puts up these kinds of numbers habitually, and that line has been together almost exclusively from what I've gathered. When there's not much player movement, possession stats become line stats more than player stats.

 

[kaiser matias]

The argument can also be made that as Matthews and the others had more icetime, that should be a plus for them, as they were seen as good enough for it, while Tkachuk was not given that same responsibility.

 

[MR4]

The argument can also be made that as Matthews and the others had more icetime, that should be a plus for them, as they were seen as good enough for it, while Tkachuk was not given that same responsibility.

Wouldn't be surprised if QoC kills this guys argument

 

[Nithoniniel]

Wouldn't be surprised if QoC kills this guys argument

It would probably strengthen it. The Backlund line was their shutdown line all year long.

 

[TMLeafs18]

13 goals compared to Matthews 40. The argument ends there. I'm sure with every rookie that had a strong season you can find certain advanced stat that shows they excelled among their peers. However this year we had rookies braking records. There is a good reason Tkachuk isn't in the final three. Not to say he didn't have a fantastic year but Werenski, Laine, and Matthews all had much better/ more Calder deserving seasons.

 

[Aladyyn]

The argument can also be made that as Matthews and the others had more icetime, that should be a plus for them, as they were seen as good enough for it, while Tkachuk was not given that same responsibility.

There are enough NHL coaches that are bad talent evaluators to make that a meaningless point.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Lol.

 

[Halla]

lol.

40 goals vs 13 and its not even gonna be close.
when they start handing out the award based on advanced stats, guys like tkachuk will have a crack.

 

[KarlssonsGroin]

come on man, this is why people dont like stat nerds that use possesion stats>>>all


using GF% relative/team to say he had a better season than Mathews or Laine? Take a lap or two

 

[F L Y E R S]

lol come on now

As much as I like Tkachuk, this isn't really comparable. Would still take him on Flyers anyday.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Get outta here, boooo

first of all ur counting points well...
goals > assists (especially secondary assists)

Also the more icetime u have the more difficult it becomes to stay consistent.

 

[Hogan86]

Thachuk is good, but he had zero chance of earning a nomination this year.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Tkachuk is making me eat crow. I didn't want the Oilers to draft him because I didn't think he could keep up. But in no way is he even in the top 3 for consideration.

Not a slight against him, just an amazing crop of rookies this year.

 

[deletethis]

Even if you do something crazy and disallow every forward with better offensive numbers than him, he wasn't a better rookie than Werenski.

 

[Pi]

There were at least 4 forwards that had a better season. Matthews, Laine, Nylander, Marner. I'd say Provorov and Werenski had better seasons as well..so he likely ends up ~6th or 7th in voting.

 

[Aerchon]

At first I thought. Flames fan off his rocker. Tkachuk is a great player and deserves some recognition for a great season but realistically not a Calder worthy guy. Especially since the Calder is almost exclusively based on points. But then I thought about it...

And I gotta give props for two reasons. One, because Tkachuk deserves the attention for his good play (although not his cheap play). Two, because it really shows how desperately Leafs fans want to make more out of Mathews than there really is.

Mathews "elite defense" is questionable at best. His quality of competition relatively low. His zone starts nothing short of sheltered. Puts things into perspective how much narrative is being fabricated out of leafs fans mania.

Not to say Mathews isnt a great player and worthy of the Calder, but this thread puts some nice perspective on his performance.

 

[gamer1035]

Those advanced stats are meant to compliment his raw stats. His raw stats aren't even close.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

The advanced stats suggest he likely could have had better raw stats under different circumstances. But he didn't, not even close to making up for the huge difference in actual production.

You can dress it up however you like, but the voters are selecting a 13 goal winger over a 40 goal center, it's not happening.

 

[Duke16]

Would've been happy with this guy if the Leafs got screwed in the lottery.

 

[Raspewtin]

He's never going to but this was a fabulous analysis of why boxcar stats are stupid.

 

[TMLFOREVER**]

The math here is flawed top to bottom. I like Tkachuk but he is where he deserves to be and that is in the back of most categories. Sure Mathew got about 2 minutes and change toi less that Matthews but that doesn't translate to 21 points. 2 times 82 is 164 minutes. That is just under 3 games but then take 180 minutes and divide by his toi and that translates to 4 more points based on his ppg ratio.

That math translates to most of your other padded stats. Matthews played with 2 rookies and one if them was Zach (cement hands) Hyman. Matthews also has a 13 game point drought.

And you can make a case for laine and marner over Tkachuk.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

He had an amazing season that was nearly on par with the Matthews/Laines/Marner so on. He just played a more two way game and got minimal PP time compared to those other guys. Plus his defensive zone starts and QoC were way harder then the other guys. That said I'll still take the other guys by not much though.

Probably a top 10 draft + 1 season over the past decade.

 

[tarheelhockey]

You can't just assume that he keeps scoring at the same rate if you give him more ice time.

The zone starts are at least a valid point.