Why is the blatantly obvious not, well, obvious?

[Whale Mingo]

This thread could go a lot of directions, most of which will probably get it closed, but I'm really asking just at face value. Why is it the things that are obvious to most such a mystery to those in a position to actually make a decision?

The three biggest, recent examples I can give as a Pens fan are:

1. Dan Bylsma. I know we don't want another thread just positioned to beat a dead horse, but how was it not obvious to everyone in charge that he wasn't the guy for the job?

2. Brooks Orpik. It seems like everyone knew he was past his prime and on the decline. I won't say Pens fans couldn't wait for him to leave, I certainly appreciate everything Brooks did here, but it was clear his best years were behind him. Yet, the Caps wasted no time in signing him to a contract Mr. Magoo could see is too long and too expensive. Caps fans still will defend the signing despite his -1 on the year and that wonderful giveaway in his own end last night.

3. Matt Niskanen. Again, not a guy we WANTED rid of, but Pens fans knew he couldn't stay because someone would overpay for him. Sure enough, someone did. His play hasn't been as bad as Orpik to start the year, but he is -2 and zero goals scored.

Two guys on a team that is +3 in goal differential and were highly paid to be difference makers and each are sporting a minus.


I don't get why some things are, or at least seem, so obvious yet someone is always willing to make the mistake on them.

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[SwordofStMichael]

Great questions..but a word of caution when getting into living in a glass house territory, Pens record isn't exactly clean in recent years of signing the type of players you describe.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

This thread could go a lot of directions, most of which will probably get it closed, but I'm really asking just at face value. Why is it the things that are obvious to most such a mystery to those in a position to actually make a decision?

The three biggest, recent examples I can give as a Pens fan are:

1. Dan Bylsma. I know we don't want another thread just positioned to beat a dead horse, but how was it not obvious to everyone in charge that he wasn't the guy for the job?

2. Brooks Orpik. It seems like everyone knew he was past his prime and on the decline. I won't say Pens fans couldn't wait for him to leave, I certainly appreciate everything Brooks did here, but it was clear his best years were behind him. Yet, the Caps wasted no time in signing him to a contract Mr. Magoo could see is too long and too expensive. Caps fans still will defend the signing despite his -1 on the year and that wonderful giveaway in his own end last night.

3. Matt Niskanen. Again, not a guy we WANTED rid of, but Pens fans knew he couldn't stay because someone would overpay for him. Sure enough, someone did. His play hasn't been as bad as Orpik to start the year, but he is -2 and zero goals scored.

Two guys on a team that is +3 in goal differential and were highly paid to be difference makers and each are sporting a minus.


I don't get why some things are, or at least seem, so obvious yet someone is always willing to make the mistake on them.

1. He coached the team to at least 100 points in every full season he coached, despite the Pens being at or near the league leader in man games lost virtually every year including his key players, and there were other, more obviously culpable reasons for our playoff failures (Fleury).

2. The Caps are dumb.

3. It's early. Niskanen's tied with Martin and a single assist behind Ehrhoff.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

As to your last two points -- early, yet. Those guys might well turn it around for the Caps. Even Orpik. Though I doubt it. Niskanen hasn't been that bad in the games I've seen... though I don't know that either will ever be worth their pricetag.

Your first point... who knows? I'm far from a hockey guru but it was pretty clear years ago that he wasn't the guy for the team. And despite some good qualities... largely an incompetent. Johnston does relatively routine things as a coach that gets me stoked simply because I haven't seen that kind of common sense in years. Bylsma seemed to like to almost make things difficult for himself for the sake of, I dunno... being cute?

One way or the other, I'm not sure how so many otherwise-intelligent and hockey-soaked individuals were able to get so thoroughly duped by the guy. He was at the point where he was making half a dozen ridiculous decisions per game and the team and fans were still largely singing Hallelujahs for the guy. Loyalty is great... to an extent.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

DB's system was essentially injury-proof - you can just plug and play, which is probably why we were successful no matter how many guys went down. The main problem is that it didn't exploit our talent. He's persona non grata around here now, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't have success in the NHL with another team within the next few years.

Also, for all the attractive systemic changes Johnston has made, he's still got a new car smell that gives him the benefit of the doubt for roster choices that got DB drawn and quartered. Dupuis is still in the top 6...with Malkin, Letang is still QBing the PP...even though we signed Ehrhoff, Scuds is still taking a regular shift, and Adams is still a PK stalwart.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Every coach has his foibles. But Johnston has already showed a willingness to change his approach. Among other things. Yeah... Adams is still on the roster, for instance -- but he isn't being played like he's one of the very best third line shutdown players in the entire world. For starters.

He has little choice currently when it comes to Dupuis/Malkin. That situation is more on JR than the coach, if we are looking to assign blame.

If Disco has real success ever again in this league... I'll be pretty surprised. I think people underestimate the advantages he had, here. He might get an underdog team into the post season here and there... and then promptly melt right the **** down.

 

[Michael8771*]

Db's system catered to the lesser lights. TBH he got pretty good play from the curtain jerkers of the world, I'll give him that. It was a very simplistic north south system that was predicated on keeping the puck at the other end of the rink. A lot of dump and chase and stretch passes. But this team should have been built on puck possession and keeping the puck on the sticks of our stars far more often. So, when it came to maximizing our elite players talents he was abysmal and IMO mitigated a lot of their creativity due to his system, which again benefited bottom six players. His biggest issue beyond that was his inability to adapt or adjust to the opposition come playoff time.

He'd be a good coach for a hard working, nondescript, grinding team that lacked star power. An Ahl team for example. Or a transitional coach for an NHL team who's rebuilding. He would likely be able to keep them competitive in the regular season. But when such a team ascends to that next level with better talent and expectation, his flaws and frailties come to light. With Sid and Geno being out in 2011 it likely bought him more time. When we lost to the flyers in 2012 he should have been let go then. Better late than never I suppose.

 

[Boocock]

The title made me expect a Philosophy 101 debate. Instead, it's a discussion on Bylsma, Orpik, and Niskanen. Ah well.

"What Brooks Orpik is beyond our current level of consciousness? A cardboard Orpik?"

 

[Whale Mingo]

Great questions..but a word of caution when getting into living in a glass house territory, Pens record isn't exactly clean in recent years of signing the type of players you describe.

I 100% agree. which is why the question in my mind is valid. It's not just that the Caps did what they did, if Leonsis doesn't pony up for those two SOMEONE else would have, and likely got the very same results.


Yes, to others points, it's early and they have to get used to the new teammates and new system, but honestly, you have to see that both got too much money and too many years, especially in Orpik's case.

It happens where I work as well. The higher ups make a decision I know is just gonna be a train wreck, but I gotta carry out the orders. Now, that may be a self fulfilling prophecy as I'm in charge of the team that has to carry out the initiative and I already have a bad attitude about it, but nonetheless, I know a bad idea when I see it and wonder how it's not obvious to anyone/everyone else.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The answer to this is simple: human brains aren't very good at evaluating information. So, it's not that GM's are dumb, per se, nor do fans have a privileged vantage point. It's that, as humans, we're incredibly at dealing with large amounts of data and making the right choices.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

So on, and so forth. There's lots of interesting work being done now on how our brains have evolved (and continue to evolve) in the information age, changing how we think on a fundamental level.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Every coach has his foibles. But Johnston has already showed a willingness to change his approach. Among other things. Yeah... Adams is still on the roster, for instance -- but he isn't being played like he's one of the very best third line shutdown players in the entire world. For starters.

That's been promising, for sure.

He has little choice currently when it comes to Dupuis/Malkin. That situation is more on JR than the coach, if we are looking to assign blame.

I dunno. The plan was to keep Dupuis in the top 6 regardless, and put Bennett with Sutter.

If Disco has real success ever again in this league... I'll be pretty surprised. I think people underestimate the advantages he had, here. He might get an underdog team into the post season here and there... and then promptly melt right the **** down.

Could be. But I don't think posters here believe he's got the brain capacity to feed or clothe himself at this point, haha. A lot of people thought Boudreau would crash and burn after Washington too.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The answer to this is simple: human brains aren't very good at evaluating information. So, it's not that GM's are dumb, per se, nor do fans have a privileged vantage point. It's that, as humans, we're incredibly at dealing with large amounts of data and making the right choices.

So... what you're saying, here (obviously) is that I have some sort of badass super-brain?

 

[joeyjake5]

What data, math or whatever supports the continued use of playing Scuds. I can see with my own eyes how bad he is. So much for the OBVIOUS or Whatever

 

[HandshakeLine]

So... what you're saying, here (obviously) is that I have some sort of badass super-brain?

I believe the technical term is "freak."

 

[madinsomniac]

Tanner Glass was fairly worthless the pat few seasons. He stockpiled blocked shots because our 4th line was overused and couldn't get out of the one creating shooting galleries.. he got signed to a rather good deal for a 4th liner and currently s -5 with no points... his rep and selective stats got him the contract. I don't know how much game tape teams actually watch on a guy before the sign them... I think that side of the culture is still in the stone age

 

[ColePens]

I'll play devil's advocate. While we all saw this coming, we also DIDN'T see a lot of things, too. Just a couple off the top of my head:

- People in Pittsburgh, and if this forum was around, HATED the trades in 92 that inevitably led us to a Cup.
- Scuds/Melichar was by far the WORST d pairing I've ever seen. Everyone on this board would have given up on both immediately.
- Shero would have been fired before he deserved to be
- Every rookie would be playing their first year instead of developing
- And we missed on a lot of players (cough cough) Pesonen.

And then again - at the same time - we have a lot of great people on this website that would have made our drafts ****ing awesome

 

[Shwag33]

What data, math or whatever supports the continued use of playing Scuds. I can see with my own eyes how bad he is. So much for the OBVIOUS or Whatever

Scuds hasnt been bad this year. You can say we dont need him, but he hasnt been bad.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Agreed, Cole. All of that falls under the hindsight fallacy-- it's easy to see what options would succeed after the fact because we have data and evidence after the fact that make it look obvious. A lot of trades and personnel moves which seem obvious now were not obvious at the time and to pretend otherwise (as fans and commentators are wont to do) is disingenuous at best.

Fans are notoriously bad predictors of success for players, trades, and systems, just as much as other commentators, coaches, GMs, etc. Even with so-called advanced statistics, there's only so much reliable data we can analyze (and whether or not we can analyze it properly is another problem entirely).

 

[ColePens]

And while I say all of that - my favorite thread was that one started in 2010 about Dan Bylsma's issues. That was a freaking awesome thread foreshadowing the issues. I would have fired Bylsma after the Flyers series.

That would have sent SHOCKWAVES through that locker room.

 

[billybudd]

I'll play devil's advocate. While we all saw this coming, we also DIDN'T see a lot of things, too. Just a couple off the top of my head:

- People in Pittsburgh, and if this forum was around, HATED the trades in 92 that inevitably led us to a Cup.
- Scuds/Melichar was by far the WORST d pairing I've ever seen. Everyone on this board would have given up on both immediately.
- Shero would have been fired before he deserved to be
- Every rookie would be playing their first year instead of developing
- And we missed on a lot of players (cough cough) Pesonen.

And then again - at the same time - we have a lot of great people on this website that would have made our drafts ****ing awesome

Just to add to this, I didn't message board at the time, but I have little doubt that near 100% of hockey fans in Pittsburgh would have traded Gonchar for nothing in the middle of the 05-06 season. And they'd have been really, really wrong to do so.

The door does swing both ways.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I believe the technical term is "freak."

Eh... I'll take it.

And I think Scuds has largely been fine this year, too. Kind of unnecessary on this roster. But fine. Certainly a big step up from last season. But so is the whole roster, so far.

Such is the effect of competent coaching.

 

[gordie]

This thread could go a lot of directions, most of which will probably get it closed, but I'm really asking just at face value. Why is it the things that are obvious to most such a mystery to those in a position to actually make a decision?

The three biggest, recent examples I can give as a Pens fan are:

1. Dan Bylsma. I know we don't want another thread just positioned to beat a dead horse, but how was it not obvious to everyone in charge that he wasn't the guy for the job?

2. Brooks Orpik. It seems like everyone knew he was past his prime and on the decline. I won't say Pens fans couldn't wait for him to leave, I certainly appreciate everything Brooks did here, but it was clear his best years were behind him. Yet, the Caps wasted no time in signing him to a contract Mr. Magoo could see is too long and too expensive. Caps fans still will defend the signing despite his -1 on the year and that wonderful giveaway in his own end last night.

3. Matt Niskanen. Again, not a guy we WANTED rid of, but Pens fans knew he couldn't stay because someone would overpay for him. Sure enough, someone did. His play hasn't been as bad as Orpik to start the year, but he is -2 and zero goals scored.

Two guys on a team that is +3 in goal differential and were highly paid to be difference makers and each are sporting a minus.


I don't get why some things are, or at least seem, so obvious yet someone is always willing to make the mistake on them.

You don't win Stanley Cups with players like Matt Niskanen on Defense. Niskanen as a marginal 5th defenseman at best and paying him $5.7 for 7 years makes it an absolute joke FA signing. Niskanen was a favorite of the former coaching staff who put him in a position to succeed instead of former First Round picks like Despres or 2nd rounder like Harrington. We are very fortunate to be rid of Matt Niskanen.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The other thing often ignored by fans when discussing "hindsight" signings is the marketplace. The market is not logical and like in any real-world application of economics, GMs are not "rational actors"-- hell nobody is. So, contracts which seem ludicrous to us may not appear to be so at the time, especially not in the sphere the GM's operate in.

Not to say that bad contracts don't exist, but really, there's a fundamental reason why free agent signings appear so weird and random to us outside-- we don't really see what goes on in negotiations or what other offers have been made.

 

[Til the End of Time]

you want to talk about something obvious, lets talk about marc andre fleury still being a pittsburgh penguin.

the guy is a huge joke and its embarrassing that a supposed contender continues to rely on this guy as their starting goaltender.

how he can fail so horrifically in the playoffs for such a long period of time yet still receive unwavering support is baffling. everyone outside pittsburgh sees it, yet this organization and much of the fanbase think hes a great goalie.

its very obvious hes the weakest link on this team and has been for many years.

down the road when sid/genos prime are long over and largely wasted we will all sit back and wonder why on earth they kept fleury for so long.

 

[Gold Diamond]

you want to talk about something obvious, lets talk about marc andre fleury still being a pittsburgh penguin.

the guy is a huge joke and its embarrassing that a supposed contender continues to rely on this guy as their starting goaltender.

how he can fail so horrifically in the playoffs for such a long period of time yet still receive unwavering support is baffling. everyone outside pittsburgh sees it, yet this organization and much of the fanbase think hes a great goalie.

its very obvious hes the weakest link on this team and has been for many years.

down the road when sid/genos prime are long over and largely wasted we will all sit back and wonder why on earth they kept fleury for so long.

Miss the past few games?

He's a very good goalie who has been languishing in a poor defensive system the past 5 years. If we don't re-sign him, someone else surely will. Now, that being said, I don't want him resigned at 5M+ a year for what he can do. We can get more consistent goaltending cheaper, IMO.

My problem with Fleury is that he is unreliable. He can look great for a few games, then easily misplay the puck or flop around out of position trying to make an acrobatic save. He's getting older and needs to simplify his style if he wants to continue to make the big bucks in the NHL.