Why is tanking absolutely necessary?

[jkutswings]

Wow, you just went completely sideways in your post. I don't know where to begin other than to ask you to re-read my posts. And with fraud, there has to be a victim. I don't feel like a victim. You might...

Why do you want me to provide evidence they are not trying to win when I think they are trying to win? They just aren't going all in, which you can see by simply looking at KH's moves.

I think Ilitch has 3 very firm and specific requirements of Ken Holland:

1). Make playoffs
2). Don't mortgage the future / don't trade important youth
3). Win the cup without sacrificing #2, but make the playoffs first and foremost.

I firmly believe you can see these come to order the year Holland traded Jarnkrok for Legwand. You are underestimating the importance of Mike Ilitch and co. wanting to make the playoffs. It is a HUGE marketing ploy for them. HUGE!

And the gripe that more and more people are having is that they don't believe #3 is possible any longer, with the way they're handling #1 and #2.

 

[njx9]

Oh and there's also this. Should Erik Karlsson become a UFA before the '19-'20 season, if rumours of discontent with the Ottawa situation are to be believed, let's see who we'll still have under contract...

Zetterberg (6M cap hit)
Abdelkader (4.2M)
Franzen (3.9M)
Helm (3.85M)
Ericsson (4.2M)
Weiss (1.6M)

Nearly 24M in cap space, from marginally useful (Abby/Helm), to downright useless. Holland is handcuffing this team.

While I fully agree with your main point, that the term on some of these contracts was horrific and short sighted, and that the people who want to brush it away don't seem to understand how LTIR actually works, there's literally zero chance we'd sign Karlsson. Even if we could offer the moon, in terms of dollars, I don't see any reason why he'd want to leave a middle of the road team just to go sign with a slightly different middle of the road team that also has no apparent Cup ambition, and that has a less than rosy future outlook. That's even ignoring the thought that Ottawa would likely try to send him off at the TDL to at least recoup some value, if he wasn't going to resign, and there's no chance we'll either have the most value to offer back, or the cap space to bring him in with. Unless the Sens, for some reason, really like the Tatar/Nyquist and Smith offer that some Wings fans seem to think could return value.

 

[PullHard]

I'd much rather have Darren Helm than Teravainen for the next five years. Teravainen isn't that good.

Helm is better.

....what?

How?

How does one come to these kinds of conclusions?

 

[BinCookin]

....what?

How?

How does one come to these kinds of conclusions?

Teravainen has yet to produce any significant NHL numbers at the NHL level. His best nearly full season is 35 pts.

Helm's best season is 32 pts.

Lets for sake of argument say they have similar offensive output.

Helm provides more intangibles (Speed / PKing)... So yes i would prefer Helm over Tera.

And for all of you CAP accountants. If you really don't want to spend any money, the correct answer is NEITHER. You prefer neither player, and more money!

 

[Frk It]

Teravainen has yet to produce any significant NHL numbers at the NHL level. His best nearly full season is 35 pts.

Helm's best season is 32 pts.

Lets for sake of argument say they have similar offensive output.

Helm provides more intangibles (Speed / PKing)... So yes i would prefer Helm over Tera.

And for all of you CAP accountants. If you really don't want to spend any money, the correct answer is NEITHER. You prefer neither player, and more money!

Maybe the skilled 22 year old is going to improve on that 35 pt season?

 

[Winger98]

While I fully agree with your main point, that the term on some of these contracts was horrific and short sighted, and that the people who want to brush it away don't seem to understand how LTIR actually works, there's literally zero chance we'd sign Karlsson. Even if we could offer the moon, in terms of dollars, I don't see any reason why he'd want to leave a middle of the road team just to go sign with a slightly different middle of the road team that also has no apparent Cup ambition, and that has a less than rosy future outlook. That's even ignoring the thought that Ottawa would likely try to send him off at the TDL to at least recoup some value, if he wasn't going to resign, and there's no chance we'll either have the most value to offer back, or the cap space to bring him in with. Unless the Sens, for some reason, really like the Tatar/Nyquist and Smith offer that some Wings fans seem to think could return value.

Suter and Parise went to Minny. Niskanen followed a coach to Washington. Boyle went to NYR mainly because he had friends from his Tampa days there, didn't he? With the cap essentially leveling the financial end of negotiations, we've seen how things like personal connections are playing larger roles in attracting free agents. If we really want to know if we have a chance at Karlsson, see if he grew up as a fan of Z or Kronwall, and hope at least one of them is still with the organization in some serious way to sell him on it.

Also, I think Ottawa being able to deal him is largely contingent on where they are in the standings. unless they deal him the summer before, trying selling your fanbase on dealing your best player while still in a playoff hunt. If they wait until after the season, the return will still be lower than trying to grab him for a playoff run.

And the gripe that more and more people are having is that they don't believe #3 is possible any longer, with the way they're handling #1 and #2.

I don't think a cup run is in any way realistically possible with this group. And I don't think management/ownership really cares about that at this point.

 

[jkutswings]

Maybe the skilled 22 year old is going to improve on that 35 pt season?

Indeed. And what some people may be missing is that certain skills are simply more valuable than others.

To exaggerate to prove a point, the best penalty killing forward in the world isn't commanding much salary if he also is only scoring 5 goals and 10 points a year. But a guy potting 40 goals can be downright awful defensively, and still land a massive contract.

At $1.45M, for the skill set he has and is projected to have, I'll gladly take Teravainen over Helm, with his salary and skill set and likely future projection. It's simply a better value. Now if the kid keeps improving, and commands a deal on the order of $5-6M AAV, then the equation changes drastically, and at that point you reevaluate ROI. But here and now, he's simply at a better point in his likely career arc, and at a much lower financial commitment.

 

[njx9]

Suter and Parise went to Minny. Niskanen followed a coach to Washington. Boyle went to NYR mainly because he had friends from his Tampa days there, didn't he? With the cap essentially leveling the financial end of negotiations, we've seen how things like personal connections are playing larger roles in attracting free agents. If we really want to know if we have a chance at Karlsson, see if he grew up as a fan of Z or Kronwall, and hope at least one of them is still with the organization in some serious way to sell him on it.

Suter and Parise aside, I think players are chasing quality teams, and then other factors come in as differentiators. Is there any doubt Toronto would've offered Stamkos more than Tampa, for instance? But why would he possibly leave a top team for a team that is still likely a few years away (though they at least have a clear future) [to address your point, Niskanen and Boyle both also went to contenders]? Unless Karlsson is best friends with Z/Kronwall and desperately wants to play with them, I don't see anything about Detroit (right now) that would be more appealing than the actual contenders that would be vying for him, and if his considerations were purely financial, it's difficult for me to believe we'll have the cap space to make the kind of offer it would take. In this case, I don't think we have the guns or the ammunition to make anything other than a cursory play.

Also, I think Ottawa being able to deal him is largely contingent on where they are in the standings. unless they deal him the summer before, trying selling your fanbase on dealing your best player while still in a playoff hunt. If they wait until after the season, the return will still be lower than trying to grab him for a playoff run.

I think if Ottawa is really dealing him, they're going to have an extremely unhappy fan base no matter when they do it. Their only PR out is if he walks on his own (and they can play the 'we made an offer of XXX, but he didn't want to play here anymore, not our fault' card) or if they get an absurd return. That said, I don't tend to think that internal cap teams honestly care all that much about PR blowback. They've already made the decision to care more about the owner's pocketbook than about winning games, and any remaining fans have mostly already accepted that.

 

[The Zermanator]

While I fully agree with your main point, that the term on some of these contracts was horrific and short sighted, and that the people who want to brush it away don't seem to understand how LTIR actually works, there's literally zero chance we'd sign Karlsson. Even if we could offer the moon, in terms of dollars, I don't see any reason why he'd want to leave a middle of the road team just to go sign with a slightly different middle of the road team that also has no apparent Cup ambition, and that has a less than rosy future outlook. That's even ignoring the thought that Ottawa would likely try to send him off at the TDL to at least recoup some value, if he wasn't going to resign, and there's no chance we'll either have the most value to offer back, or the cap space to bring him in with. Unless the Sens, for some reason, really like the Tatar/Nyquist and Smith offer that some Wings fans seem to think could return value.

If Karlsson opts to test FA, then it won't matter if Ottawa deals him at the deadline, to us or anyone else. He'd be a FA regardless of which team he was on when his contract expires.

And that's my point, it's irrelevant to debate if Karlsson even WOULD consider the Wings if the Wings are in a position where they CAN'T offer him what he's worth. That would be a real pity if an Erik Karlsson came along and the Wings didn't even have a chance because they have too many trash contracts.

Wow, you just went completely sideways in your post. I don't know where to begin other than to ask you to re-read my posts. And with fraud, there has to be a victim. I don't feel like a victim. You might...

Why do you want me to provide evidence they are not trying to win when I think they are trying to win? They just aren't going all in, which you can see by simply looking at KH's moves.

I think Ilitch has 3 very firm and specific requirements of Ken Holland:

1). Make playoffs
2). Don't mortgage the future / don't trade important youth
3). Win the cup without sacrificing #2, but make the playoffs first and foremost.

I firmly believe you can see these come to order the year Holland traded Jarnkrok for Legwand. You are underestimating the importance of Mike Ilitch and co. wanting to make the playoffs. It is a HUGE marketing ploy for them. HUGE!

Oh, so they're trying, they're just not trying 'too' hard? If you take money from fans to run your professional sports team (where the goal is to WIN), with the understanding that you will be trying to win, and winning takes a backseat to one round's playoff revenue, then yes that is fraudulent. Taking money from fans based on false promises. And regardless of how you feel, you're obviously content with a team going through the motions, fans would be in an uproar if they found out their team wasn't actively trying to win. Any team's fans, not just Detroit.

Now I'll ignore the fact that you provide exactly zero evidence to support your claims about Mike Ilitch's plans for the team, and just question your logic instead. You do realize that they would make even more money if they went further into the playoffs right? As an EASY out, they are getting 5-6 games per postseason. If Mike Ilitch was just interested in money, maybe he'd want to extend that a little bit... Not to mention the added revenue that comes from being a top team in terms of merchandise and whatnot. AZ jerseys don't exactly fly off the shelves, do they? If he's content with being mediocre, then he's hurting the team's brand which is lost money. I don't know if you've noticed, but Detroit isn't really considered an elite franchise anymore. They still coast on the perception of being an elite 'org' but even that is quickly losing its luster. So this 'marketing ploy' isn't exactly working, is it? The Wings are not expected by anyone to make a serious splash anywhere.

But it's all moot, the added revenue from the playoffs is being smothered by the sheer weight of all the terrible contracts Holland has handed out!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Maybe the skilled 22 year old is going to improve on that 35 pt season?

A "maybe" doesn't mean he's better though, does it? Maybe he's better 1 year from now, maybe he's better 2-3 years from now. But he's not better now and he could just as well regress when he's no longer on the most dominant puck possession team in the league.

Anyway I don't know why these two guys are even compared? TT was traded for draft picks, we never had the option of signing him and definitely shouldn't be trading picks for players of that caliber.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I don't think tanking is absolutely necessary. I think a team can become bad enough to find the bottom of the standings in a far more organic fashion. Tanking implies some sort of affirmative action on the part of management. I can see us getting there on our own if we continue drafting between 16-20 with similar success and remain inactive on the trade market. The only benefit of an actual tank job is to accelerate the whole process.

Now if we don't need to draft at the top of the first round to find new franchise players (as suggested by the usual pro-Holland suspects), I sure hope that the Number One Defensemen Fairy and the Number One Center Fairy show up sometime soon. As far as I am concerned they can have all of the change off of the top of the dresser.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

A "maybe" doesn't mean he's better though, does it? Maybe he's better 1 year from now, maybe he's better 2-3 years from now. But he's not better now and he could just as well regress when he's no longer on the most dominant puck possession team in the league.

Anyway I don't know why these two guys are even compared? TT was traded for draft picks, we never had the option of signing him and definitely shouldn't be trading picks for players of that caliber.

Should we be concerned about now or the future? Right now we won't be competing for the cup. I am sorry to be the one to break that to you. In the future we may be good enough to compete for the cup. In the future I expect TT to be the better, if only because father time catches up with Helm.

 

[Frk It]

A "maybe" doesn't mean he's better though, does it? Maybe he's better 1 year from now, maybe he's better 2-3 years from now. But he's not better now and he could just as well regress when he's no longer on the most dominant puck possession team in the league.

Anyway I don't know why these two guys are even compared? TT was traded for draft picks, we never had the option of signing him and definitely shouldn't be trading picks for players of that caliber.

Sure but he was a top 20 pick. If Mantha came up and put up a 35 pt season, pretty sure we would all be here expecting that number to grow, right?

I think he is a player of a pretty high caliber, who was acquired for a pretty reasonable price. Probably smart move for Carolina in the long run. Actually think it was a smart move in the some light of us trading for Sadowy. But not mad we didn't do it.

 

[HIFE]

I'm curious, are there Red Wings fans who are disappointed the team is off to a hot start? It's very early but it seems at least possible that Holland's strategy to "stay competitive" pans out and we make the playoffs. For some is our current win-streak further evidence that the Wings should instead be more serious about becoming a contender?

 

[Mount Suribachi]

I'm curious, are there Red Wings fans who are disappointed the team is off to a hot start? It's very early but it seems at least possible that Holland's strategy to "stay competitive" pans out and we make the playoffs. For some is our current win-streak further evidence that the Wings should instead be more serious about becoming a contender?

I'm enjoying it, I can't deny it - but lets wait and see where we are in the dog days of February before we assess whether we are genuinely competitive, or just on an early hot streak. Its a long season - both last seasons cup finalists were considered complete jokes at Christmas...

 

[Claypool]

I'm curious, are there Red Wings fans who are disappointed the team is off to a hot start? It's very early but it seems at least possible that Holland's strategy to "stay competitive" pans out and we make the playoffs. For some is our current win-streak further evidence that the Wings should instead be more serious about becoming a contender?

Holland identified one area that this team can excel at over many opposing teams is speed. This team is much, much faster than previous iterations. Helm was brought back entirely for this reason. Nielsen was signed for his speed and threat on the penalty kill, then you have Larkin, Athanasiou, Nyquist, Tatar. Sheahan and Abdelkader are pretty quick, too. This team is much better creating pressure on the forecheck and causing turnovers.

This team has only allowed 8 goals in the last 6 games, too.

 

[Bench]

I'm curious, are there Red Wings fans who are disappointed the team is off to a hot start? It's very early but it seems at least possible that Holland's strategy to "stay competitive" pans out and we make the playoffs. For some is our current win-streak further evidence that the Wings should instead be more serious about becoming a contender?

I'm sure there's like 5 people out there who want them to fail for the best draft pick. So let's get the minority outliers out of the way. We addressed them. OK!

Now moving on to a more reasonable stance, no, of course people aren't disappointed. Winning is way more fun to watch. Our favorite players are on this team and having them actually succeed is awesome. And young players are getting bigger roles than previous years. AA is on the team and doing great. Sproul and Marchenko have got real chances to show their stuff. It's all a step in the right direction.

So let's assume, for our discussion, the team keeps up a good pace the rest of the year and the tires don't fall off. The only real concern is if this team continues to overachieve and look poised for a playoff run. Does Holland get tempted by the veteran deadline rental? That's where you run into some concerns about the long-term plan. I'd like to think he'd hold firm and go with the team that's doing well, but history shows he loves himself playoff depth in form of 2nd rounder for seasoned vet.

Because while a comfortable entrance into the playoffs would be unexpected and nice to see, that's not the signal to "go for it" with this roster. Blueline is still going to be one of the weakest in any 7 game series and everything would ride on the hot hand of Mrazek. Instead take your success as a great sign to keep stockpiling your system and/or use your assets to address weaknesses.

 

[Claypool]

The only real concern is if this team continues to overachieve and look poised for a playoff run. Does Holland get tempted by the veteran deadline rental? That's where you run into some concerns about the long-term plan. I'd like to think he'd hold firm and go with the team that's doing well, but history shows he loves himself playoff depth in form of 2nd rounder for seasoned vet.

He's stated many time's he's not making deadline deals that could impact the team's future long-term, certainly not for rentals. He hasn't traded a 1st round pick in how many years? He's obviously not moving any of the team's best prospects. I don't have much of a problem trading a 2nd or 3rd for a good rental that addresses a need.

 

[Bench]

He's stated many time's he's not making deadline deals that could impact the team's future long-term, certainly not for rentals. He hasn't traded a 1st round pick in how many years? He's obviously not moving any of the team's best prospects. I don't have much of a problem trading a 2nd or 3rd for a good rental that addresses a need.

Yeah, they shouldn't do that this year. Any trade needs to be for a future piece at this stage.

 

[Dotter]

Sproul and Howard might garner some trade value.

 

[Winger98]

I'm sure there's like 5 people out there who want them to fail for the best draft pick. So let's get the minority outliers out of the way. We addressed them. OK!

Now moving on to a more reasonable stance, no, of course people aren't disappointed. Winning is way more fun to watch. Our favorite players are on this team and having them actually succeed is awesome. And young players are getting bigger roles than previous years. AA is on the team and doing great. Sproul and Marchenko have got real chances to show their stuff. It's all a step in the right direction.

So let's assume, for our discussion, the team keeps up a good pace the rest of the year and the tires don't fall off. The only real concern is if this team continues to overachieve and look poised for a playoff run. Does Holland get tempted by the veteran deadline rental? That's where you run into some concerns about the long-term plan. I'd like to think he'd hold firm and go with the team that's doing well, but history shows he loves himself playoff depth in form of 2nd rounder for seasoned vet.

Because while a comfortable entrance into the playoffs would be unexpected and nice to see, that's not the signal to "go for it" with this roster. Blueline is still going to be one of the weakest in any 7 game series and everything would ride on the hot hand of Mrazek. Instead take your success as a great sign to keep stockpiling your system and/or use your assets to address weaknesses.

Over the past six games we've given up an average of 31.6 shots but have had a .957 save percentage. Yeah, there's going to be some regression to that. Just eyeballing some stats and it seems a number of teams that are giving up a lot of shots are being "rewarded" for it so far this season, though. I'm guessing that when we hit the twenty game mark we're going to start seeing the teams giving up a ton of shots slipping down the standings. Unless they're getting Vezina level goaltending, such as we've been with Mrazek.

 

[SirloinUB]

I'm sure there's like 5 people out there who want them to fail for the best draft pick. So let's get the minority outliers out of the way. We addressed them. OK!

Now moving on to a more reasonable stance, no, of course people aren't disappointed. Winning is way more fun to watch. Our favorite players are on this team and having them actually succeed is awesome. And young players are getting bigger roles than previous years. AA is on the team and doing great. Sproul and Marchenko have got real chances to show their stuff. It's all a step in the right direction.

So let's assume, for our discussion, the team keeps up a good pace the rest of the year and the tires don't fall off. The only real concern is if this team continues to overachieve and look poised for a playoff run. Does Holland get tempted by the veteran deadline rental? That's where you run into some concerns about the long-term plan. I'd like to think he'd hold firm and go with the team that's doing well, but history shows he loves himself playoff depth in form of 2nd rounder for seasoned vet.

Because while a comfortable entrance into the playoffs would be unexpected and nice to see, that's not the signal to "go for it" with this roster. Blueline is still going to be one of the weakest in any 7 game series and everything would ride on the hot hand of Mrazek. Instead take your success as a great sign to keep stockpiling your system and/or use your assets to address weaknesses.

I'm not sure if there is much in the pipeline to offer but theoretically, I have no issue if he trades one or two Backmans, Jarnkroks, or Janmarks etc.

 

[waltdetroit]

Here is an ESPN "Hockey Today" podcast with an interview with Steve Ott and discussion on should Detroit tank.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=17893541

starts at the 15:45 mark

 

[odin1981]

He's stated many time's he's not making deadline deals that could impact the team's future long-term, certainly not for rentals. He hasn't traded a 1st round pick in how many years? He's obviously not moving any of the team's best prospects. I don't have much of a problem trading a 2nd or 3rd for a good rental that addresses a need.

The 2nd and 3rd rounders he trades like candy for players are a big detriment. Look at our defense for instance. If you look at the majority of well regarded top 3-4 defenders the overwhelming majority come from the first 3 rounds. Sure there are outliers and all but they most of the time come from the top 90-100 picks.

So think just in the past 3-4 years how many 2nd and 3rd rounders we have given to other teams. Now it is not a given or anything but if you miss out on say 6-8 chances at taking a player you are missing out on the realistic chance you find a good young defender.

There is a very good chance if he didn't give them out and took say 75% of them on defenders we would have someone who is 1-2 years away from the NHL or in the 3-4 year instance they would be getting on the team right now.

Now having said all that I will qualify with this is in no way that each and every pick would turn into said option. The majority like all picks not in the 1st round would more than half the time not even turn into a player. But if you look at where the players are drafted and you have 6-8 additional picks the chances of finding said player increase exponentially.

 

[Henkka]

Here is an ESPN "Hockey Today" podcast with an interview with Steve Ott and discussion on should Detroit tank.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=17893541

starts at the 15:45 mark

I didn't notice any discussion about tanking..?