Why is tanking absolutely necessary?

[Claypool]

I don't know, I think I'd take a year of Bickell for the opportunity of the next 5-8 years of Teravainen.

I'd much rather have Darren Helm than Teravainen for the next five years. Teravainen isn't that good.

 

[Winger98]

I'd much rather have Darren Helm than Teravainen for the next five years. Teravainen isn't that good.

I think it depends what you're looking for. If you're looking for a scoring line forward, Teravainen has already had a better season than Helm's best. If you're looking for a guy who skates real fast, well, you have Helm.

 

[Dotter]

That's not what I said. And that's not what I asked. What aspect of Holland's tenure over the last 6 years are you defending exactly?

If he's been 'rebuilding on the fly' for over half a decade and we only have the assets to trade for mediocre players...

Well, first off Ken Holland kept this team a playoff team. And you can't have it both ways, you can't have top bluechip assets without tanking or being incredibly lucky at drafting. Now that Jim Nill is gone, I see better drafting and a better prospect pool incoming.

 

[jkutswings]

Right, but Anaheim isn't moving Fower's contract to make space. Maybe it could have been done during the offseason, but they're certainly not moving him right now. I think that's what you don't seem to understand. I have zero interest in taking back any of the Ducks's other awful defensemen, even if that means a promising prospect or draft pick is coming along.

Columbus and Carolina are god awful franchises. I'll take six more Darren Helm contracts before I even consider Detroit aspiring to become a cap dump franchise for other team's mistakes.

Which is EXACTLY why you keep some flexibility open. Bunches of people on both the Detroit and Anaheim markets were speculating that a trade made a ton of sense this summer...and then Detroit spent every spare dollar they had, and nixed the possibility.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Who mentioned Trouba? What's one of the big things Anaheim is looking to do? Move a contract without taking anything in return. It would also put us into position for dumps like the Hawks have had to do with Saad and Teravainen.

And you think Holland didn't talk to Anaheim before July 1st?

Agree with your second point, we wouldn't have Nielsen and Vanek if we didn't clear up cap space.

 

[Claypool]

Which is EXACTLY why you keep some flexibility open. Bunches of people on both the Detroit and Anaheim markets were speculating that a trade made a ton of sense this summer...and then Detroit spent every spare dollar they had, and nixed the possibility.

Detroit would have likely known prior to July 1st if a Fowler deal was even possible. He was likely available during the draft with a 1st round pick going the other way at least. Either way, he wasn't dealt during the summer and still hasn't been dealt, so your scenario would have been pointless.

 

[jkutswings]

Well, first off Ken Holland kept this team a playoff team. And you can't have it both ways, you can't have top bluechip assets without tanking or being incredibly lucky at drafting. Now that Jim Nill is gone, I see better drafting and a better prospect pool incoming.

For the sake of argument, let's say this is true, and there will be improved drafting going forward.

If the Wings continue to make the playoffs, exactly how much do you feel drafting will improve, staying in the 16-20 range? Enough to fully restock the system, and become a Cup contender again? If so, in what timeframe?

If the Wings do not continue to make the playoffs, was the last few years of early exits worth delaying the rebuild?

YMMV, but to me, the franchise is at a point where, no matter what approach they take now, it's going to be at least another few years before they're doing any damage in the spring, which means that even the "rebuild on the fly" is a 5-10 year process, with no guarantee at success. Ultimately, it's a roll of the dice, with the options of:

* Take a chance at doing it the "conventional" way, with high draft picks, but risk missing the playoffs for an extended time, with nothing to show for it, or;

* Take a chance at doing it the "unconventional" way, hoping that mid draft picks pan out, but possibly miss out on any opportunities that require a bit more risk, and never get the elite talent to build your team around.

I understand the lure of opting for the gamble that doesn't miss the playoffs, but I guess I just don't trust the "smartest man in the room" approach, of trying to do something that has clearly been the exception to the rule, both before and after the introduction of the salary cap.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I'd much rather have Darren Helm than Teravainen for the next five years. Teravainen isn't that good.

you'd much rather have worse, older and more expensive player of the two?

 

[Pavels Dog]

you'd much rather have worse, older and more expensive player of the two?

Helm is better.

 

[jkutswings]

Detroit would have likely known prior to July 1st if a Fowler deal was even possible. He was likely available during the draft with a 1st round pick going the other way at least. Either way, he wasn't dealt during the summer and still hasn't been dealt, so your scenario would have been pointless.

This was written on July 1, 2016:

http://mynhltraderumors.com/nhl-rumors-detroit-red-wings-anaheim-ducks/2016/07/01/

"The Ducks are reportedly looking for a top-six forward or maybe a top-nine and mid-round draft pick for Cam Fowler."


And this came out on July 4, 2016:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...around-cam-fowler-trade-kris-russell-and-more

"On June 29, Cam Fowler told ESPN.com's Pierre LeBrun he was surprised the Anaheim Ducks didn't trade him before the NHL draft."

"The Detroit Free Press' Helene St. James speculated the Detroit Red Wings could be one of the teams angling to acquire the veteran defenseman. St. James added the Red Wings would likely need to part ways with one of Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist and a second-round draft pick in order to entice Anaheim."


Now I'm not saying any of these rumors were spot on for evaluating fair trade value for Fowler. But when multiple sources are estimating something like Tatar and either a 2nd rounder or a lesser roster player, and Fowler himself was expecting to be dealt, I think it's fair to say that a trade was certainly POSSIBLE.

And as to why he still hasn't been dealt, I believe Anaheim is in a stalemate with RFA Hampus Lindholm. I think his demands really took them by surprise, and they're now reconsidering whether they shouldn't just hang on to Fowler, if they can't work something out with Lindholm.

But regardless, there are other fish in the sea, and having no cap space doesn't make a trade for any of them any easier.

 

[Claypool]

TBut regardless, there are other fish in the sea, and having no cap space doesn't make a trade for any of them any easier.

What other fish? Let's hear it.

 

[jkutswings]

Helm is better.

In 117 games, Teravainen is 18-27-45, with a +2 rating (and is only 22).

I don't have the exact split, but after 98 games, Helm was 11-14-25, with a -11 rating. After 180 games, he was 23-34-57, with a -2 rating.

Now I understand that Helm brings other things to the table besides points, and I could even understand saying that Helm is CURRENTLY a better overall player. But at nearly triple the salary, and if you take a realistic guess as to how each player's career should unfold for the next several seasons, I don't know how you wouldn't say Teravainen is a more sensible add.

 

[The Zermanator]

Well, first off Ken Holland kept this team a playoff team.

They don't give participation trophies in the NHL.

And you can't have it both ways, you can't have top bluechip assets without tanking or being incredibly lucky at drafting. Now that Jim Nill is gone, I see better drafting and a better prospect pool incoming.

I'll ask you again. How do you defend Holland's tenure over the last 6 years? Don't give me more reasons why it's hard, there's no crying in baseball. What is he doing that is bringing this team closer to contending for the Cup? That should be the goal, shouldn't it?

And fyi, Nill is also running a playoff team, in a much more difficult division than ours.

 

[Dotter]

For the sake of argument, let's say this is true, and there will be improved drafting going forward.

If the Wings continue to make the playoffs, exactly how much do you feel drafting will improve, staying in the 16-20 range? Enough to fully restock the system, and become a Cup contender again? If so, in what timeframe?

If the Wings do not continue to make the playoffs, was the last few years of early exits worth delaying the rebuild?

YMMV, but to me, the franchise is at a point where, no matter what approach they take now, it's going to be at least another few years before they're doing any damage in the spring, which means that even the "rebuild on the fly" is a 5-10 year process, with no guarantee at success. Ultimately, it's a roll of the dice, with the options of:

* Take a chance at doing it the "conventional" way, with high draft picks, but risk missing the playoffs for an extended time, with nothing to show for it, or;

* Take a chance at doing it the "unconventional" way, hoping that mid draft picks pan out, but possibly miss out on any opportunities that require a bit more risk, and never get the elite talent to build your team around.

I understand the lure of opting for the gamble that doesn't miss the playoffs, but I guess I just don't trust the "smartest man in the room" approach, of trying to do something that has clearly been the exception to the rule, both before and after the introduction of the salary cap.

They poster I quoted, which you replied to my post to him, he does not want the team to tank what-so-ever. He wants Ken Holland to becoming a contender by trading and drafting (I think). The Zerminator was no clear how he wants to become legit contenders other than he doesn't want to tank. I know confusing, right?

 

[jkutswings]

What other fish? Let's hear it.

I'm not going to pretend that I'm up to speed on every player that might be up for grabs, but here's the latest rumor mill:

http://spectorshockey.net/updates-on-trouba-lindholm-fowler-october-18-2016/

And just because something isn't in the media, doesn't mean GMs aren't shopping. I mean, isn't it kinda their job to talk out of both sides of their mouth, saying publicly, "we like our team", but privately working every angle they can to constantly improve things?

 

[The Zermanator]

Oh and there's also this. Should Erik Karlsson become a UFA before the '19-'20 season, if rumours of discontent with the Ottawa situation are to be believed, let's see who we'll still have under contract...

Zetterberg (6M cap hit)
Abdelkader (4.2M)
Franzen (3.9M)
Helm (3.85M)
Ericsson (4.2M)
Weiss (1.6M)

Nearly 24M in cap space, from marginally useful (Abby/Helm), to downright useless. Holland is handcuffing this team.

 

[Dotter]

They don't give participation trophies in the NHL.

Nope, but they give the owner checks. Which I guess is what he wants. That and the "playoff streak title". But you can be upset about it even though you don't own the team or sign checks.

I am still enjoying hockey. And I love the playoffs!

I'll ask you again. How do you defend Holland's tenure over the last 6 years? Don't give me more reasons why it's hard, there's no crying in baseball. What is he doing that is bringing this team closer to contending for the Cup? That should be the goal, shouldn't it?

And fyi, Nill is also running a playoff team, in a much more difficult division than ours.

I think KH is doing exactly what the Ilitch's want. I guess my advice to you stop buying merch. That'll show 'em!

 

[InjuredChoker]

Helm is better.

close but no cigar.

 

[Claypool]

Oh and there's also this. Should Erik Karlsson become a UFA before the '19-'20 season, if rumours of discontent with the Ottawa situation are to be believed, let's see who we'll still have under contract...

Zetterberg (6M cap hit)
Abdelkader (4.2M)
Franzen (3.9M)
Helm (3.85M)
Ericsson (4.2M)
Weiss (1.6M)

Nearly 24M in cap space, from marginally useful (Abby/Helm), to downright useless. Holland is handcuffing this team.

Huh? Franzen will be on LTIR. Zetterberg will have two years left on his deal that only pays him $1 million per. I can't imagine he'll continue playing for a million bucks (if he even makes it that far). Plus we have no idea what this team or the league will look like in three more years.

 

[The Zermanator]

Huh? Franzen will be on LTIR. Zetterberg will have two years left on his deal that only pays him $1 million per. I can't imagine he'll continue playing for a million bucks (if he even makes it that far). Plus we have no idea what this team or the league will look like in three more years.

Franzen is on LTIR now, yet we still had his contract eating up the cap until the last second of the offseason. You can only go so far over even counting LTIR. Franzen's contract still has an effect. And Zetterberg's cap hit is 6M regardless of what he's getting paid. Or he retires and we get hit with the recapture. Or we put him on LTIR, see Franzen, Johan.

Nope, but they give the owner checks. Which I guess is what he wants. That and the "playoff streak title". But you can be upset about it even though you don't own the team or sign checks.

I am still enjoying hockey. And I love the playoffs!

I think KH is doing exactly what the Ilitch's want. I guess my advice to you stop buying merch. That'll show 'em!

First of all, an appeal to authority? Really? I guess that Kim Jong Un's got things under control in NK, after all Dear Leader knows best right? That's not an argument.

Ilitch signs checks from revenue he gets from the team, revenue he gets from fans who buy tickets, food, and merchandise. Fans expect a winning team. That's why people get fired when a winning team is not achieved. If the team is not winning then it is expected that a plan is put into place and executed so the team may become a winning team. If Ilitch/Holland's goal is to be just good enough to make the playoffs then that's downright fraud. Ilitch finances the team based on the money paid by fans who have expectations that a winning team will be iced or sought. If that's not the case, then Ilitch/Holland should be honest about it. Let's see how they do financially in that event.

But I don't actually believe that. Do you have any evidence, even a tangible rumour, that they are not trying to win? They keep getting bounced about 5 games into the playoffs, usually with no home ice advantage. So they're getting 2, maybe 3 games at the Joe to really milk that playoff gravy train. Well, you know what would make even more money? Actually making it farther into the playoffs. I don't believe this 'they're not really trying' nonsense for a second. I think that's a flimsy excuse to wave away Holland's failures and mismanagement.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This was written on July 1, 2016:

http://mynhltraderumors.com/nhl-rumors-detroit-red-wings-anaheim-ducks/2016/07/01/

"The Ducks are reportedly looking for a top-six forward or maybe a top-nine and mid-round draft pick for Cam Fowler."


And this came out on July 4, 2016:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...around-cam-fowler-trade-kris-russell-and-more

"On June 29, Cam Fowler told ESPN.com's Pierre LeBrun he was surprised the Anaheim Ducks didn't trade him before the NHL draft."

"The Detroit Free Press' Helene St. James speculated the Detroit Red Wings could be one of the teams angling to acquire the veteran defenseman. St. James added the Red Wings would likely need to part ways with one of Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist and a second-round draft pick in order to entice Anaheim."


Now I'm not saying any of these rumors were spot on for evaluating fair trade value for Fowler. But when multiple sources are estimating something like Tatar and either a 2nd rounder or a lesser roster player, and Fowler himself was expecting to be dealt, I think it's fair to say that a trade was certainly POSSIBLE.

And as to why he still hasn't been dealt, I believe Anaheim is in a stalemate with RFA Hampus Lindholm. I think his demands really took them by surprise, and they're now reconsidering whether they shouldn't just hang on to Fowler, if they can't work something out with Lindholm.

But regardless, there are other fish in the sea, and having no cap space doesn't make a trade for any of them any easier.

From literally the source you posted:

"The Ducks won’t just give Cam Fowler away. An in-season trade for Fowler may be more likely."

Trade rumors in the summer are constantly, constantly wrong too. I agree Lindholm may be a big factor holding a trade up but I disagree that we are handcuffed. Salary can be cleared up either by making moves or by injuries happening during the season.

In 117 games, Teravainen is 18-27-45, with a +2 rating (and is only 22).

I don't have the exact split, but after 98 games, Helm was 11-14-25, with a -11 rating. After 180 games, he was 23-34-57, with a -2 rating.

Now I understand that Helm brings other things to the table besides points, and I could even understand saying that Helm is CURRENTLY a better overall player. But at nearly triple the salary, and if you take a realistic guess as to how each player's career should unfold for the next several seasons, I don't know how you wouldn't say Teravainen is a more sensible add.

Helm brings other things? You're comparing the early career of a one-dimensional offensive player (on a dominant cup contender frequently playing with guys like Keith, Kane, Toews etc) with the early career of Helm who is more of a grinder and especially early on was put more in 4th line and PK roles. They couldn't be more different. We're not in position to trade picks for a kid who is like Helm with worse defense, less speed, less intensity and compete level, and possibly worse offense as well when he's not playing on a stacked team (remains to be seen).

 

[Winger98]

And you think Holland didn't talk to Anaheim before July 1st?

Agree with your second point, we wouldn't have Nielsen and Vanek if we didn't clear up cap space.

I'm sure Holland and others had been pestering the Ducks for awhile, but the Ducks probably thought they still had time to make a move or someone would get hurt in camp, etc., and cap space would be opened up.

Still, as you point out with Nielsen and Vanek, my point isn't so much about specific players but about having the flexibility to make moves in general. Claypool has pointed out how many teams are breathing against the cap. That's going to shake guys loose at some point and start forcing deals to be made, as will the expansion draft where some teams -and the ducks look like one of those teams right now - won't want to risk losing some guys for nothing.

 

[Dotter]

Franzen is on LTIR now, yet we still had his contract eating up the cap until the last second of the offseason. You can only go so far over even counting LTIR. Franzen's contract still has an effect. And Zetterberg's cap hit is 6M regardless of what he's getting paid. Or he retires and we get hit with the recapture. Or we put him on LTIR, see Franzen, Johan.



First of all, an appeal to authority? Really? I guess that Kim Jong Un's got things under control in NK, after all Dear Leader knows best right? That's not an argument.

Ilitch signs checks from revenue he gets from the team, revenue he gets from fans who buy tickets, food, and merchandise. Fans expect a winning team. That's why people get fired when a winning team is not achieved. If the team is not winning then it is expected that a plan is put into place and executed so the team may become a winning team. If Ilitch/Holland's goal is to be just good enough to make the playoffs then that's downright fraud. Ilitch finances the team based on the money paid by fans who have expectations that a winning team will be iced or sought. If that's not the case, then Ilitch/Holland should be honest about it. Let's see how they do financially in that event.

But I don't actually believe that. Do you have any evidence, even a tangible rumour, that they are not trying to win? They keep getting bounced about 5 games into the playoffs, usually with no home ice advantage. So they're getting 2, maybe 3 games at the Joe to really milk that playoff gravy train. Well, you know what would make even more money? Actually making it farther into the playoffs. I don't believe this 'they're not really trying' nonsense for a second. I think that's a flimsy excuse to wave away Holland's failures and mismanagement.

Wow, you just went completely sideways in your post. I don't know where to begin other than to ask you to re-read my posts. And with fraud, there has to be a victim. I don't feel like a victim. You might...

Why do you want me to provide evidence they are not trying to win when I think they are trying to win? They just aren't going all in, which you can see by simply looking at KH's moves.

I think Ilitch has 3 very firm and specific requirements of Ken Holland:

1). Make playoffs
2). Don't mortgage the future / don't trade important youth
3). Win the cup without sacrificing #2, but make the playoffs first and foremost.

I firmly believe you can see these come to order the year Holland traded Jarnkrok for Legwand. You are underestimating the importance of Mike Ilitch and co. wanting to make the playoffs. It is a HUGE marketing ploy for them. HUGE!

 

[ap3x]

And to the expense of probably missing 'em for the first time this year. Without much to hope for the years to come.
Highly doubtful to what extent limping into the playoffs lately was worth it to risk your future.

 

[jkutswings]

From literally the source you posted:

"The Ducks won’t just give Cam Fowler away. An in-season trade for Fowler may be more likely."

Trade rumors in the summer are constantly, constantly wrong too. I agree Lindholm may be a big factor holding a trade up but I disagree that we are handcuffed. Salary can be cleared up either by making moves or by injuries happening during the season.

I never said they would "give him away". I said that, based on quotes from the player, and lots of rumors circulating, that an equitable trade was POSSIBLE during the summer.

And forgive my skepticism that Ken Holland, who makes fewer moves than almost any other GM in the league, and loves to spend right to the cap, and loves to hand out long-term deals and NTC/NMC aspects left and right, would be just as capable of pulling off a trade during the season, with no extra cap space, than during the summer, with a few million in cushion.

Helm brings other things? You're comparing the early career of a one-dimensional offensive player (on a dominant cup contender frequently playing with guys like Keith, Kane, Toews etc) with the early career of Helm who is more of a grinder and especially early on was put more in 4th line and PK roles. They couldn't be more different. We're not in position to trade picks for a kid who is like Helm with worse defense, less speed, less intensity and compete level, and possibly worse offense as well when he's not playing on a stacked team (remains to be seen).

I didn't mean to imply that Detroit should be trading for Teravainen right now. I was just arguing that, based on results and contract, he's a better value than Helm.