Why doesn’t NHL broadcast LIVE the draft lottery number draws?

[SensHulk]

But we're doing this "in real time" so once the machine starts, someone is calling "draw" every 20 seconds, which means every 20 seconds whoever's broadcasting flashes the new probabilities in the corner and everyone has whatever time to process that before the next ball is drawn. Well, unless it's that 2nd ball drawn in the 1st pass in 2023 - in which case, it took 11 seconds from the command "draw" until a ball popped up, and right after Bettman had announced the number the next "draw" command was given, which meant they'd have barely had time to update until the next ball popped up and got selected.

How riveting! Real edge of the seat excitement! The most spine-tingling part of that was is a ball ever going to come up the chute?

You’re making a giant assumption of keeping the same format. It would be way more interesting if when the final ball is being drawn, multiple teams are still in the running for that 1st pick. How do you not see the appeal of it versus a sterile countdown by Bill Daly? ‘By process of elimination, the San Jose Sharks have won the lottery’ versus ‘the last ball drawn can belong to any of the following 6 teams’ or whatever.

Yeah color me riveted in that case.

 

[nturn06]

If you compare this to the current format, are we getting any product leaps and bounds better than the live draw? It’s still quite drawn out, and the only analysis we’re really getting is ‘which team hasn’t won the top 2 picks’ Everything for the most part just falls into place so it feels kind of pointless to count it down. I do see that you said that the current reveal is more boring than the lottery draw, which I wholeheartedly agree.

Even the lottery video currently released takes 18-20 mins, so yeah I do think they will need to just stretch it out somehow. I do see your point of a live draw not being able to account for ineligible winner in the second draw. There probably needs a condition to be built in. But between how’s it’s already drawn out now, I’d feel more invested in tracking the numbers and seeing live just how close my team was really to getting the 1st/2nd pick (there’s no more 3rd pick in the lottery draw)

Sorry that was a typo, watching the balls for hours would be much much more boring than the actual reveal. Much much worse.

And while the video release lasts 18-20 minutes, the actual draw takes less than 2 minutes. Now, to update the chances for each team after each ball is drawn, and let fans really see/understand how those chances affect their team, would make the draw take 15-20 minutes instead of 2. Multiply that 3-5 times (if they pick an inneligible team) and there would easily be 2 full hours of practically watching balls fly in the air.

And if you still think this is exciting, wait until you are told that whatever happend for the last 25 "exciting" minutes is wasted time, it needs to be redone because an inneligible team won.

You’re making a giant assumption of keeping the same format. It would be way more interesting if when the final ball is being drawn, multiple teams are still in the running for that 1st pick. How do you not see the appeal of it versus a sterile countdown by Bill Daly? ‘By process of elimination, the San Jose Sharks have won the lottery’ versus ‘the last ball drawn can belong to any of the following 6 teams’ or whatever.

Yeah color me riveted in that case.

And how is that different than when Bill Daly gets to #6-7 pick and, guess what, there 6 teams still in running for the #1 pick.

 

[ACLEVERNAME]

This thread is a Threat to Our Democracy™

 

[Ted Hoffman]

You’re making a giant assumption of keeping the same format.

Wait, I thought that's exactly what you were claiming you wanted with all your prior posts.

You want something different now? Cool, maybe we're getting somewhere.

It would be way more interesting if when the final ball is being drawn, multiple teams are still in the running for that 1st pick.

Multiple teams .... are still in the running for that 1st pick.

Oh, you want to see who those are and what percentage chances they have.

Then explain how this process is going to work already. How long are we waiting between drawing balls? What exactly do you envision happening in the meantime? Are we just flashing a graphic, are we having "informed" analysis, are we going to have discussions with involved parties? What the hell is going to happen that's going to make this "super exciting" not just for you, but for everyone else?

How do you not see the appeal of it versus a sterile countdown by Bill Daly?

What entertains me is not what entertains others. I'm not about to presume everyone else's interests match mine and demand the world change to entertain me, and if anyone else doesn't like it that's their problem.

YMMV, and based on posts so far it clearly does.

‘By process of elimination, the San Jose Sharks have won the lottery’ versus ‘the last ball drawn can belong to any of the following 6 teams’ or whatever.

Yeah color me riveted in that case.

Do you need ... 10 seconds for that? 20 seconds? A minute? 3 minutes? More? Less?

I know it looks like I'm being snarky here, but I'm trying to ask questions that get you to think about what it is that you really want so you can explain it to others, so that you can try to get buy-in from the currently disinterested masses, instead of continuing to fall back on I would be entertained if ....., and so would everyone else with zero proof that anyone else would be similarly entertained. Instead, right now you're long on promise of excitement and woefully short on details of what's going to be so exciting, which isn't a compelling argument for change.

 

[Cas]

There is simply no drama in an incredibly boring process (a process that is boring in large part to ensure fairness). There is zero reason to expensive any effort to try and artificially inject drama in the process, because no, no one is actually going to watch.

 

[SensHulk]

Sorry that was a typo, watching the balls for hours would be much much more boring than the actual reveal. Much much worse.

And while the video release lasts 18-20 minutes, the actual draw takes less than 2 minutes. Now, to update the chances for each team after each ball is drawn, and let fans really see/understand how those chances affect their team, would make the draw take 15-20 minutes instead of 2. Multiply that 3-5 times (if they pick an inneligible team) and there would easily be 2 full hours of practically watching balls fly in the air.

And if you still think this is exciting, wait until you are told that whatever happend for the last 25 "exciting" minutes is wasted time, it needs to be redone because an inneligible team won.


And how is that different than when Bill Daly gets to #6-7 pick and, guess what, there 6 teams still in running for the #1 pick.

lol damn typo

I think the argument of ineligible winners in the 2nd draw is the biggest drawback of the live lottery draw. I am in agreement there, you don’t want multiple rounds and building up suspense and hope only to repeat it. That would suck.

Of course if there’s a way to remove the winner’s combinations at once, that’d be a path forward but would require a vastly different approach, something I don’t think the NHL would be willing to take on.

On the countdown, I view the prospects of more teams being in the running till the very end vs a slow process of elimination way more engaging as a fan. Usually if you’re cheering for the 14th place team, you’re pretty much outta the running right off the bat (most of the time)

 

[nturn06]

lol damn typo

I think the argument of ineligible winners in the 2nd draw is the biggest drawback of the live lottery draw. I am in agreement there, you don’t want multiple rounds and building up suspense and hope only to repeat it. That would suck.

Of course if there’s a way to remove the winner’s combinations at once, that’d be a path forward but would require a vastly different approach, something I don’t think the NHL would be willing to take on.

On the countdown, I view the prospects of more teams being in the running till the very end vs a slow process of elimination way more engaging as a fan. Usually if you’re cheering for the 14th place team, you’re pretty much outta the running right off the bat (most of the time)

I am getting the feeling that there are not too many fans which feel the same

 

[SensHulk]

Wait, I thought that's exactly what you were claiming you wanted with all your prior posts.

You want something different now? Cool, maybe we're getting somewhere.

Multiple teams .... are still in the running for that 1st pick.

Oh, you want to see who those are and what percentage chances they have.

Then explain how this process is going to work already. How long are we waiting between drawing balls? What exactly do you envision happening in the meantime? Are we just flashing a graphic, are we having "informed" analysis, are we going to have discussions with involved parties? What the hell is going to happen that's going to make this "super exciting" not just for you, but for everyone else?


What entertains me is not what entertains others. I'm not about to presume everyone else's interests match mine and demand the world change to entertain me, and if anyone else doesn't like it that's their problem.

YMMV, and based on posts so far it clearly does.



Do you need ... 10 seconds for that? 20 seconds? A minute? 3 minutes? More? Less?

I know it looks like I'm being snarky here, but I'm trying to ask questions that get you to think about what it is that you really want so you can explain it to others, so that you can try to get buy-in from the currently disinterested masses, instead of continuing to fall back on I would be entertained if ....., and so would everyone else with zero proof that anyone else would be similarly entertained. Instead, right now you're long on promise of excitement and woefully short on details of what's going to be so exciting, which isn't a compelling argument for change.

I don’t claim to have proof, giving my anecdotal experience and from what I see in just how invested the average human gets with lottery draws, there’s an opportunity for fans to engage in a similar manner. It’s not going to shatter records, I get that but would be more ‘exciting’ to me, and if it’s not to you and you think the current format is fine, then to each their own.

Too many messages to type out, do 30 seconds between each ball draw, set a timer. Let the fans build up the suspense to see if their team gets the winning combo, and have more than one team in the running when that final ball is drawn versus 2 teams like we’re always used to. See some raw emotion out of execs or fans in attendance if they want to make a bigger spectacle.

That’s about all I’m willing to go into a ‘buy-in’ discussion. Like I said just putting out there, feeling if others think like me. No biggie if no one else sees an issue with the current format

I am getting the feeling that there are not too many fans which feel the same

Fair enough. Nevertheless, still fun to propose something a bit more out of box. I do feel NHL is asleep at the wheel at marketing its game.

 

[ACLEVERNAME]

Ryan Reeves - playoff warrior

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I don’t claim to have proof, giving my anecdotal experience and from what I see in just how invested the average human gets with lottery draws, there’s an opportunity for fans to engage in a similar manner.

In my anecdotal experience, the average human sucks at understanding basic statistics, struggles to do anything above basic math, and overestimates their chances of success and underestimates their chances of failure. The number of fans who will be engaged in the manner you are describing are dwarfed by the number of fans who would see this process and .

It’s not going to shatter records, I get that but would be more ‘exciting’ to me, and if it’s not to you and you think the current format is fine, then to each their own.

There's the point, though. You would find it more exciting, so you want it to happen. If anyone disagrees with you and doesn't want that, ... then to paraphrase Tom Cruise, f*** them. No, really - f*** them. And, no one is stepping up yeah, this would be fantastic, I can't get enough of watching videos of the draft lottery after they release it, I would love to watch the drawing get dragged out several more minutes while someone does teh analytics on who has what chances after whatever numbers get pulled.

Hell, I can't remember the first time anyone ever posted that draft drawing video ... wow, that was incredible, best 17 minutes of my life today. Or even wow, that draft drawing video, ... that was really cool, I enjoyed that a whole lot.

Again, quit superimposing what you want on everyone else and demand they go along with it because that's what you want, no matter how much they don't want it.

 

[archangel2]

they did it once IIRC (Dahlin/Svechnikov draft I believe) and it was boring as f***.

Yep. Somethings are just not worth watching

 

[SensHulk]

There's the point, though. You would find it more exciting, so you want it to happen. If anyone disagrees with you and doesn't want that, ... then to paraphrase Tom Cruise, f*** them. No, really - f*** them. Again, quit superimposing what you want on everyone else and demand they go along with it because that's what you want, no matter how much they don't want it.

Dude what are you still going on about? No one is superimposing anything. Chill tf out, no one is changing your precious draft lottery reveal

 

[DaveG]

Yep. Somethings are just not worth watching

Especially when you're talking about over 10k possible winning combinations, it's just not interesting television and almost impossible to track.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Dude what are you still going on about? No one is superimposing anything.

I don’t claim to have proof, giving my anecdotal experience and from what I see in just how invested the average human gets with lottery draws, there’s an opportunity for fans to engage in a similar manner.

... but would be more ‘exciting’ to me, ...

It would be way more interesting if when the final ball is being drawn, multiple teams are still in the running for that 1st pick. How do you not see the appeal of it versus a sterile countdown by Bill Daly? ‘By process of elimination, the San Jose Sharks have won the lottery’ versus ‘the last ball drawn can belong to any of the following 6 teams’ or whatever.

Yeah color me riveted in that case.

I personally think it’s also long and drawn out how the envelopes are revealed and now they do the whole ‘well reveal the top 3 after the 2nd period’ BS. Maybe there isn’t a problem in the wide majority finds it riveting but I simply equate it to how the mainstream laymen audience watches in suspense as each digit is drawn for a lottery ball. To me that’s more entertaining than a bunch of suits just waiting to find out what the envelope has revealed. So that’s the motivation at the core of it, it’s to get the fans more engaged as well.

And others, after

Yeah if they release this earlier, that’s great. I think there’s a path to utilize it further and make the actual ball drawing more engaging and frankly entertaining.

I don’t recall ever seeing it, it’s usually just the big envelope countdown. My thought if they were to do it is to do it with more flair and theatrics, have a live audience and make a spectacle out of it. Easy ratings, more relevancy with fan bases out of the playoff race (saying this as a sens fan)

In short: you want something to happen, and because you want it others must want it too so it should happen.

No one wants this. I and 4 others have tried explaining this. Just skip straight to here and call it a thread already:

No biggie if no one else sees an issue with the current format

 

[93LEAFS]

Revealing the teams from worst to best makes for more interesting TV. Can't do that live with the current lottery ball system.

Yeah, it would be very boring to watch, especially if they need to do a redraw because the 2nd or 3rd combo is that of a team already pulled. I guess you could get some high drama if we see who has potential winning combos left. But, the current format is better set up for the average viewer and easier to broadcast and keep people watching until the end.

No, that's the beauty of the conspiracy. So many people have to be in the know and no one ever says anything, and some of these decisions are literally worth tens of millions of dollars but all the other owners are OK with not getting it because .... look, if I have to explain how this conspiracy works, you're never going to understand it.

Yeah, a big 4 accounting firm is going to let their reputation get damaged or destroyed by rigging the draft for the NHL. None of them want to become the next Arthur Andersen (you know the accounting firm that used to make up the big 5).

 

[The Nemesis]

Dude what are you still going on about? No one is superimposing anything. Chill tf out, no one is changing your precious draft lottery reveal

You are superimposing your expectations of what the draft lottery should be over everyone else's views on the issue. Each time someone points out the flaws in your argument or just says "I think the draft lottery is OK the way it is now." it's just "yeah, well that's just your opinion" and then a push to brush it off. But when you present an argument it's treated as if it has merit and value and deserves recognition.

This is this thread:

You: "People want and deserve a better and more exciting draft lottery reveal system!"

The people you claim to speak for: "no we don't. It's fine how it is now. Showing the lottery drawing is boring and confusing and fixing it to not be those things would likely risk its integrity and fairness"

You: "That can't be right! I'm telling you that you should want it to be better."

Everyone else: "But we don't really want it better. Nobody wants to watch the ping-pong balls. The card thing does its job just fine. Besides, how are you making it better?"

You: "That's not my job to figure out. I'm just saying it can be better and someone else can figure out how."

Everyone else: "It kind of is your job to figure out how it can be better if you're suggesting that. Because if you don't know how then you don't even know if it's possible."

You: "Don't get bogged down in details. Just focus on making it better."

Everyone else: "But the details are how you know it IS better. And the details suggest it wouldn't be. At least not in the ways that matter. And that not enough people care to make it worth doing anything."

You: "Whoa, chill out! nobody will take away your precious lottery"

Everyone else: "but.... you just said you wanted to take it away. and refused to listen to people saying you didn't need to..."

Look, I can appreciate that you asked a question about changing the process. It's important to be able to look at things and ask "can we do this better?" but if a bunch of people say "probably not" and "even if we could there's not really a need to." then it's probably best to just accept that and move on instead of continuing to insist on speaking for everyone even as they tell you that you don't speak for them.

The lottery isn't exciting but it's not designed to be. it's designed to be practical and do its job to the best of its ability and regardless of what you think about the idea of the lottery and its impact on the draft, the setup they have does what it needs to for the lottery system in use. It's a thing to stick at the intermission of a playoff game in May and be done in 15 minutes. It doesn't need to be 10 minutes of gripping television based on watching ping-pong balls and doing complicated probabilistic math that won't appeal to anyone but the nerdiest math PhDs.

I was going to do a silly parallel idea to jazz up the draft but realized that it would probably mark this as one of those "dumb posts" where flippant sarcasm apparently becomes a disqualifier for serious consideration of its actual points so maybe I'll just stop while I'm ahead. After all, I'm pro "lottery is fine" so I must hate fun anyways.

 

[Oddbob]

Because simple does not mean simple at all... To address the odds, you'd need hundreds (possibly a thousand) balls.

You don't need odds at all.

For example: (You can adjust the amount of balls up if you want 6th-16th to have slight better chance based on position if you want) (No idiotic number combo needed)

Last place team gets: 10 balls
2nd last: 5 balls
3rd last: 4 balls
4th last: 3balls
5th last: 2 balls
Everyone else in the lottery gets 1 ball each

Tumble away and the ball that gets pulled is pick #1, tumble again to get the next 1-2 spots, then the rest are ordered how they finished in the standings.

 

[Oddbob]

To do that they'd have to have fewer outcomes in the hopper. Like right now the system is that there are 14 balls in the machine, numbered 1 to 14. The machine ejects 4 balls and the resultant combination (which doesn't care about the order, so 6-2-8-1 is the same as 2-8-1-6 or 1-2-6-8 or anything else with those 4 numbers) is your winner. This allows them to have 1,000 different combinations of numbers without replacement or order so that you can have team odds that are malleable to a 10th of a percentage point and sufficiently distribute the winning combinations so that it is truly random (ie this year the Sharks have the best odds at like 25.5%, but that doesn't mean they have the first 255 combinations on the list because that could theoretically result in a less randomized outcome)

To maintain the same odds with team logo balls you'd have to have 1,000 balls in the hopper, otherwise you would have to reduce the number of balls and thus fudge the numbers on the probabilities for each team to win. That would be ungainly and could increase the odds that something goes wrong. Never mind the fact that people already whinge about the lottery being rigged but a one-ball-wins system would only make it easier to cheat the system and would thus increase calls that the league is cheating.

Besides, the lottery is not meant to be a public spectacle. It's meant to be a functional bit of admin. The system they've got is the best balance between being something halfway viewable for the hardcores that need to see it and meeting the requirements for it to do its job properly and with a minimum of problems.

Why do we need different odds and combinations. My style already makes it as random as it needs to be and still gives the team at the bottom a great chance to win.

 

[yukoner88]

Everyone else remember Bettman's hand shaking when he realized the Oilers won the McDavid lottery?

 

[Oddbob]

Conspiracy theory avoidance…fans would say team X’s balls were made bigger/smaller/lighter/heavier to get the result they want…when numerous teams benefit from a “5” being pulled, it’s harder to say the 5 is rigged…

So, they complain now with the current system. Nothing would be different.

 

[nturn06]

You don't need odds at all.

For example: (You can adjust the amount of balls up if you want 6th-16th to have slight better chance based on position if you want) (No idiotic number combo needed)

Last place team gets: 10 balls
2nd last: 5 balls
3rd last: 4 balls
4th last: 3balls
5th last: 2 balls
Everyone else in the lottery gets 1 ball each

Tumble away and the ball that gets pulled is pick #1, tumble again to get the next 1-2 spots, then the rest are ordered how they finished in the standings.

So in your oppinion, finishing 6th should have the same chances as barely missing the playoffs. All this while finishing 5th would double the chances and finishing 4th would triple the chances of the #6 spot.

The main reason why you need many balls is the fact that otehrwise the chances at the bottom change way too much. In the current system, the difference between #2 and #5 is about 40% more chances for #2, in your system would be 2.5 times higher chances for #2....

 

[Brodeur]

You don't need odds at all.

For example: (You can adjust the amount of balls up if you want 6th-16th to have slight better chance based on position if you want) (No idiotic number combo needed)

Last place team gets: 10 balls
2nd last: 5 balls
3rd last: 4 balls
4th last: 3balls
5th last: 2 balls
Everyone else in the lottery gets 1 ball each

Tumble away and the ball that gets pulled is pick #1, tumble again to get the next 1-2 spots, then the rest are ordered how they finished in the standings.

Doesn't seem like a great probability. Your method has 33 balls.

Last place: 30.3% (10/33)
2nd: 15.1% (5/33)
3rd: 12.1% (4/33)
4th: 9.1% (3/33)
5th: 6.1% (2/33)
everybody else: 3.0% (1/33)

Odds are okay-ish until you get to the 6th team. Utah has 7.5% as it is from the 6th spot but now you assigned them the same odds as the 11th place team just because you deemed the current process "idiotic." I would call this method unfairly arbitrary.

Your way is much more straightforward but also has holes. I do enjoy your suggestion to keep adding balls until you get your desired odds which just goes back to your suggestion to go back to the 1993 NBA method. Which as I mentioned earlier, there's a reason why the NBA changed it in 1994.

 

[Ford Prefect]

Because it's rigged, obviously.

If you think the lottery is rigged, consider this: McDavid is in Edmonton. Nuff said.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Every team has a representative of the organisation in that room so Bettman cant cheat it unless they aren't putting the correct number of balls in and even then, they showcase the balls to all those in the room before they get put into the machine.

It's not so much a scam as everyone makes it out to be but conspiracy theories will continue.

 

[93LEAFS]

If you think the lottery is rigged, consider this: McDavid is in Edmonton. Nuff said.

Yeah, if the NHL was rigging lotteries McDavid is probably in Toronto, and Matthews is probably in Arizona or the Leafs win one of the Stamkos/Tavares lottos.

Either way, if you think a big 4 Accounting firm is going to risk its reputation for the NHL, I don't know what to tell people who think that.