Why doesn’t NHL broadcast LIVE the draft lottery number draws?
- Thread starter SensHulk
- Start date
That's how the NBA used to conduct it and the desired odds just weren't there. In 1993, the NBA had eleven non-playoff teams. The worst team (Dallas) had 11 balls, the second worst team (Minnesota) and 10 balls, all the way down to Orlando who had 1 ball. In total there were 66 balls. Doing the same with 16 non-playoff teams would require 136 balls. More if you wanted to weigh the odds for the bad clubs.
NBA changed the procedure in 1994 (possibly due to Orlando's improbable 1993 win) to the using the current 'pick 4 out of 14 generic numbered balls' method. Easier for Ernst & Young to reuse the same 14 balls for the NHL as well rather have to produce 136+ balls and a giant hopper.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
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Let me take a step back here and explain why the draw isn't done live, in case no one else has done this.
As "perfectly" as one wants to imagine things will go, any number of things could go wrong. People run late. The machine malfunctions and now they have to go get a 2nd machine and make sure it's working and passes E&Y checks. The power goes out for some freak reason. Someone observing wants to dispute something and it's frivolous or it's a misunderstanding of something and quickly resolved. [Which, the league goes over everything before starting the drawing process so there shouldn't be anything like that during the process.] For some truly bizarre reason, E&Y screws up reading the 1st drawing result and no one catches it until the 2nd drawing is done. Something else happens that causes everything to be delayed. Who knows. The drawing is recorded and released as done, so that everyone can see how it all happened, and there's not some long delay that ... you know, judging by responses already lobbed in this thread ... causes all the conspiracy theorists to scream they've got "proof" and start slinging shit everywhere.
That all said ... how is your idea really better? Are you suggesting that after each ball is drawn there's a long pause while teh analytics are done? Are we going to have some kind of analysis with it? Are we going to cut to a look at Wild GM Bill Guerin after the 2nd ball is drawn, Guerin doesn't have a clue where his team stands because he just wants the thing to be done so he can get out of there, some broadcaster is well, now that the 2nd ball is drawn, Minnesota's chances of winning the 1st overall pick have plummeted and they need one of these two combinations in the final 2 balls to win, I wonder if Guerin knows where he stands at the moment, let's cut to our reporter at the drawing and get Guerin's thoughts right now?
It seems like you're imagining there's a problem and then trying to come up with a solution, and you're never establishing there's a problem beyond I want to be more entertained. If you want to be entertained, set up teh analytics and live blog the recording so you can show how it all went down. Otherwise, I'm not sure what exactly you're going to propose that's truly more entertaining to the point that the average NHL fan will tune in for this where they don't currently tune in at all but just wait to read the results in their news feed somewhere.
- Aug 3, 2021
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They literally show the camera each numbered ball going into a see-through container before the numbers are picked so you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Indeed
The disaster that was "The Mystery of Al Capone's vaults" forever changed true live broadcasting of non actual sporting events
Golden_Jet
Registered User
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Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
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Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
SensHulk
Registered User
Depends on how you define the problem. If there truly is a concern of rigging, and lots of folks on here have referenced it, then that’s an obvious benefit.
The second one is the entertainment value. I personally think it’s also long and drawn out how the envelopes are revealed and now they do the whole ‘well reveal the top 3 after the 2nd period’ BS. Maybe there isn’t a problem in the wide majority finds it riveting but I simply equate it to how the mainstream laymen audience watches in suspense as each digit is drawn for a lottery ball. To me that’s more entertaining than a bunch of suits just waiting to find out what the envelope has revealed. So that’s the motivation at the core of it, it’s to get the fans more engaged as well.
Now granted it probably doesn’t work in the current format that we have to-date, likely requires some tweaking. I’m not setting up analytics or anything, I’m simply brainstorming and shooting the shit but as an engineer, I know it 100% can be done, no matter how complex the combinations are. Probably requires greater kinds than mine to figure out the best formula. And a little more transparency from the NHL can’t hurt.
If vast majority thinks the current format is fine, then oh well. Feel everything has a life span and I’m sure there will be a time where some new format is again proposed.
SensHulk
Registered User
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
To do that they'd have to have fewer outcomes in the hopper. Like right now the system is that there are 14 balls in the machine, numbered 1 to 14. The machine ejects 4 balls and the resultant combination (which doesn't care about the order, so 6-2-8-1 is the same as 2-8-1-6 or 1-2-6-8 or anything else with those 4 numbers) is your winner. This allows them to have 1,000 different combinations of numbers without replacement or order so that you can have team odds that are malleable to a 10th of a percentage point and sufficiently distribute the winning combinations so that it is truly random (ie this year the Sharks have the best odds at like 25.5%, but that doesn't mean they have the first 255 combinations on the list because that could theoretically result in a less randomized outcome)
To maintain the same odds with team logo balls you'd have to have 1,000 balls in the hopper, otherwise you would have to reduce the number of balls and thus fudge the numbers on the probabilities for each team to win. That would be ungainly and could increase the odds that something goes wrong. Never mind the fact that people already whinge about the lottery being rigged but a one-ball-wins system would only make it easier to cheat the system and would thus increase calls that the league is cheating.
Besides, the lottery is not meant to be a public spectacle. It's meant to be a functional bit of admin. The system they've got is the best balance between being something halfway viewable for the hardcores that need to see it and meeting the requirements for it to do its job properly and with a minimum of problems.
It'd be compelling to you and me, but I think it would be a little too complicated for the average viewer.
I remember the 2017 lottery when the three winners were New Jersey (5th), Dallas (8th), and Philadelphia (13th). The broadcast was showing different draft parties. Vancouver was slotted #2 pre-lottery. When they did the card reveal and New Jersey was revealed as the last winner, I remember seeing one Canuck fan react since he knew that meant Vancouver had been bumped down three spots. But the rest of the draft party didn't react until Vancouver was explicitly shown as the #5 card.
Edit: Maybe it was this YouTube fan video and not the broadcast of the draft party. Just funny that a couple fans were applauding when Vegas was revealed as #6 as they seemingly didn't realize Vancouver was going to be #5 since the three winners had already been designated.
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Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
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If there's a concern of rigging, nothing you or anyone else proposes to alleviate that concern is ever going to stop it because people will simply find new excuses. Or, they'll claim you're also part of the conspiracy and demand you somehow prove otherwise, which you will never be able to do.
That's how conspiracy theories work.
You have no "right to be entertained to some threshold I deem to be appropriate," but ...
OK, but in everything else that follows you're still not explaining what you would do differently. I can only infer from your comments that you still want some long, drawn out process, just not as long and drawn out but over some 30-minute, 60-minute show because hang on - we've drawn a ball, let's show teh analtyics on everyone now. Or ... something. I don't know, you really need to lay this out.
And I really, really think you overestimate how much interest, much less ability, the average fan has in understanding how teh analytics work after any number of balls are drawn when creating a combination. They have the attention of a mayfly, they're not going to sit in wild-eyed fascination watching. They're going to get bored after about 5 minutes of delaying and flip the channel and wait for someone to finally get the whole thing over so they can learn who's picking where.
Then explain the what of "what is this new process going to look like." You're an engineer, you should be able to lay out this process for what you want to see happen in fairly decent detail.
That said, I'm an actuary and I can come up with all kinds of ways to make this more or less complex and purportedly entertaining ... for me. Which, is probably not what other people are going to find entertaining, and I'm not about to propose because I would find it entertaining, so would everyone else and push it as an idea that has to be enacted. That's because I also realize now matter how simple or complex the combinations are there are limits to how entertaining you can make the entire process, and that most people really DNGAF and just want to see the end result.
SensHulk
Registered User
I’ve explained new process several times. Draw the numbers manually live, and have a way of engaging the fanbase as each digit is drawn.
That’s good for you to detail all the ins and outs and layout a plan. I think it’s irrelevant to do it at this stage when the bigger question is whether this format would be more engaging to the layman or not.
And whether it’s my right or not to be entertained is a reach…as a subscriber and viewer of NHL’s content with their national broadcast partner, my opinions can/should be valued whether you disagree with it or not. It’s precisely this close minded attitude that leaves the NHL in the dust with the rest of the sports leagues
Conspiracy theory avoidance…fans would say team X’s balls were made bigger/smaller/lighter/heavier to get the result they want…when numerous teams benefit from a “5” being pulled, it’s harder to say the 5 is rigged…
- Jun 23, 2020
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"And the first number is... six! This means that all 16 teams remain in the running!"
Maybe we can get some announcers to talk about how great the numbers selected are, and Pierre McGuire can talk about how he knows Number Seven's parents and how he was a great number all the way back n ancient India.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
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HOW are you going to engage the fanbase in this, though? We've established the "draw the numbers manually live" part and I've explained the potential pitfalls there - but even presuming that's not an issue, what exactly are you proposing we do to engage the fanbase?
Don't just give more vague ideas, don't just lob what if we had teh analytics on teh probabilities after ______, because that does nothing for engagement except to numbers-minded geeks (a group that I'm a proud member of). What specific things are you proposing we do with the draw to make it more entertaining?
No, it's absolutely important to say "here's what the process is" so that everyone else can see if it's "more engaging to the layman or not." I could propose some Deal or No Deal takeoff where 14 attractive females have briefcases showing whether a team has won or not, we line up GMs in team alphabetical or personal alphabetical order and we see if their team won or not as each briefcase is opened, and proclaim that would be really entertaining, we should do it! when other people would disagree and think it was stupid. [Though, admittedly, it's probably a better idea than some I've seen thrown out here to "fix" other "problems" over the years. Which ... is at times, a low bar to step over.]
Just because I may think it's a great idea doesn't mean it really will be. Details matter. You're not providing enough of them.
Your opinions shouldn't be treated as a proxy for everyone else's opinions, though. Just like someone else's opinions shouldn't be treated as some proxy for your opinions. Your opinions are yours, my opinions are mine, everyone else's opinions are theirs.
You think this idea, which ... I'm going to state again, is still incomplete ... is going to be more entertaining. Maybe it will be for you. You have no idea if it will be for others. Maybe it won't be any more entertaining. Maybe it will be less entertaining. I don't know. I don't care, either - what I do care about is you treating your opinion as something everyone else shares and then running forward with it. Maybe start a couple steps back with "I have an opinion, does anyone else have this" and work forward from there, instead of presupposing a problem exists and then proposing a solution that should be adopted when you can neither prove the existence of the problem nor explain the solution.
SensHulk
Registered User
Dude…you can go read the OP again if you’re looking for more clarity. I literally ask for everyone’s thoughts and state that this is just my opinion versus trying to be a proxy so it’s literally the last part that I’m going for. I have plenty of ideas but I’m not here to make proposals (otherwise I would have tagged it as such) literally meant to be a conversation starter. I’ve seen several others chime in with opinions which I can respect.
Not sure I owe you a fully laid out plan(in fact I know I don’t).
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
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So in summary: do nothing, but release those number combos. Which, the league already does, as I noted in a later post. And, broadcast this live - exactly like they do everything currently, but ... in real time.
And which, if you want to follow along "live" - by ignoring all the news about who won and instead waiting for the video of the drawing to be released later and pretending that it's "live" you can "track along" at a speed that's convenient for you - you can do.
You're still not explaining how this is supposed to be "super exciting." Nor, anywhere in your OP or anything subsequent, do you explain how anyone who's watching as the drawing is done live - "do whatever you're doing in the video below but do it LIVE" - is going to have the time to do this tracking, or even have the resources to input the results as they occur and understand what it means for ... whatever is supposed to make this "super exciting."
True, you don't owe me anything. It would, however, be helpful for others to understand what in this idea you have that you're poorly articulating is going to make it "super exciting."
And while you don't necessarily need to have a fully laid out plan, it would help if you had a hell of a lot more details than what you cited in your OP which you want me (and presumably others) to read if anyone is "looking for more clarity."
The reality is that it is very hard to engage the fans in the lottery, the way the chances chage is boring. The current reveal is more boring than broadcasting the actual lottery.
Just to make this clear:
Step 1: the first ball is drawn. There are 286 combinations left from the original 1001. Almost surely, most teams have their chances change by .2-.5%, how exciting.
I guess they can spend half hour commenting on how team A had their chances go up from 10.3% to 10.6%, while team B had their chances go down from 4.2% to 4%, it is a conspiracy I tell you.
Step 2: the second ball is drawn. Here is where things really get exciting. 66 combinations left. The odds probably change a bit now (maybe even by as high as 2-3 %, wow), and some teams are eliminated. While their chances probably change, the top 3 teams are probably the same and the order is probably still the same. But hey, at this point, we know if the #16, #15 team is out or still has a long shot.
Step 3: third ball is drawn, the excitement grows. 11 balls left, most likely 1 team has 4, 1-2 teams have 2 or 3 and the rest have 1 ball. Some teams are clearly out, the chances are very different than in the beginning.
Step 4: last ball, we know the winner.
Now, repeat this few times to decide #2 and #3 picks.
The worst part is that, if this is done on live television, engaging the fans, you need to introduce a break after each ball is drawn to show the fans how each chance changed. Suddenly, a draw would take 15-20 minutes instead of 1 minute now. And if they need to repeat the draw a few times, since ineligible teams win the #2/#3, then this process could actually go on for 1-2 hours. Exciting, right?
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
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But we're doing this "in real time" so once the machine starts, someone is calling "draw" every 20 seconds, which means every 20 seconds whoever's broadcasting flashes the new probabilities in the corner and everyone has whatever time to process that before the next ball is drawn. Well, unless it's that 2nd ball drawn in the 1st pass in 2023 - in which case, it took 11 seconds from the command "draw" until a ball popped up, and right after Bettman had announced the number the next "draw" command was given, which meant they'd have barely had time to update until the next ball popped up and got selected.
How riveting! Real edge of the seat excitement! The most spine-tingling part of that was is a ball ever going to come up the chute?
How riveting! Real edge of the seat excitement! The most spine-tingling part of that was is a ball ever going to come up the chute?
Mr Positive
Cap Crunch Incoming
- Nov 20, 2013
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It's way more exciting to have the reveal with the cards. They show footage of the drawing still, right? That's plenty.
And btw if it were rigged too many people would have to be complicit in it. Also if it were rigged, I don't see the sense in why these winners were chosen
And btw if it were rigged too many people would have to be complicit in it. Also if it were rigged, I don't see the sense in why these winners were chosen
SensHulk
Registered User
If you compare this to the current format, are we getting any product leaps and bounds better than the live draw? It’s still quite drawn out, and the only analysis we’re really getting is ‘which team hasn’t won the top 2 picks’ Everything for the most part just falls into place so it feels kind of pointless to count it down. I do see that you said that the current reveal is more boring than the lottery draw, which I wholeheartedly agree.
Even the lottery video currently released takes 18-20 mins, so yeah I do think they will need to just stretch it out somehow. I do see your point of a live draw not being able to account for ineligible winner in the second draw. There probably needs a condition to be built in. But between how’s it’s already drawn out now, I’d feel more invested in tracking the numbers and seeing live just how close my team was really to getting the 1st/2nd pick (there’s no more 3rd pick in the lottery draw)
SensHulk
Registered User
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