Why does Canucks player development suck so much?

[LeftCoast]

I think Horvat has a golden opportunity; just enough competition that a roster spot is not a gift, but not stuck behind so much veteran depth that he has no chance. If he can get 3rd line NHL minutes at his natural C position he should develop just fine. If on the other hand, he ends up on the 4th line or they move him to the wing, I'd prefer he stay in London. Realistically, since Bonino has pretty much locked down the 2C position, the competition is Brad Richardson, Shawn Matthias, Linden Vey and Brendan Gaunce. Richardson is probably going to be the 4th line C, Matthias and Vey can play on the wings and Gaunce is AHL eligible without waivers so unless he's clearly superior, he will go to Utica.

I think as long as a player is physically mature enough to withstand the grind of an NHL season and can earn 12 - 18 minutes per game, developing a player at the NHL level is fine. In Junior or the AHL he will not see the speed and pace that he will experience at the NHL level, so he will learn to process the game at a high pace. It has the added advantage that your own staff can develop the player.

Their are also risks. Smaller players who are not physically ready, particularly those coming out of Tier II junior, NCAA or European junior leagues, can get a bit shell shocked or injured by the physical game. An offensive player who struggles early and is being coached to improve his defensive play can lose his confidence offensively. Once a player makes an NHL roster as an 18 or 19 year old, they can go into a bit of a funk when they are sent down as a 20 year old. However a coach who is good at handling young players (something we haven't had in a while) should be able to manage this issues.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Because Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are pretty good.

So does this mean we don't have "pretty good" players on our team too?

 

[topheavyhookjaw]

One thing (IMO) is then insisting not to plug in rookies immediately after being drafted.

We saw this with Luc Bourdon and Cody Hodgson.

Both looked ready and had a legitimate shot at competing and weren't given shots.

I believe Nonis said at the time he didn't want to waste a year of ELC deal on the bottom pairing for Bourdon. Which is ridiculous. The obsession of "getting more minutes" in a worse league at some point needs to stop.
And Gillis has carried on that mighty tradition with Hodgson and not giving Shinkaruk even 8 games last season despite the fact they were one of the worst offensive teams.

This hasn't had the same negative impact in other organizations though. I agree with the bolded (always liked how Anaheim used Getzlaf/Perry in 4th line/PK role in rookie year), but not sure the solution is putting guys straight on an NHL roster because of a good camp. Also, teams with big pressure from owners to make the playoffs every year will have a harder time gambling on a rookie in a top 9 forward spot.

This is just looking at one fact and making a quick judgment without looking at the bigger picture.

Looking at just 1st round picks:

2003: Kesler -- great pick, great development
2004: Schneider -- great pick, great development
2005: Bourdon -- can't rate this one (thought it was a good pick, though)
2006: Grabner -- good pick, so/so development (I think they could have done better)2007: White -- bad pick, no chance for development
2008: Hodgson -- good pick, good development (injury was out of Canucks control, questionable handling of injury by AV..but otherwise, they brought him along well)

2009: Schroeder -- I don't know what went wrong here. I thought it was a great pick at the time, and obviously you think the Canucks could do better with development..but it's hard to blame the teams player development here

2010: No 1st round pick

2011: Jensen -- good pick, coming along pretty well. Should fight for an NHL spot.

2012: Gaunce -- hasn't even entered the Canucks program, development hasn't been great, but it's hard to tell with a player like him how he will adapt to the NHL

2013: Horvat + Shinkaruk -- too young to judge

Hard to blame player development on any of those.

The real problem is that the only thing we have to show from the 2005-2010 drafts at this point are Zack Kassian (from the Cody Hodgson trade).

Losing Raymond, and the Ballard trade (losing grabner and our 2010 1st), failing to develop Shirokov (who could have been a decent top-6 player, imo), and a bunch of misses from 2006-2010 is what hurts us.

Let's hope the 2011-2014 drafts turn out better.

I'll never defend that pick, Giroux was right there!

I agree with your view point. I thought you were assuming if Luc didn't die he would be in the NHL.

I think it is more about the drafting. The 2004 draft was excellent. Hansen, Edler and Brown were after the 2nd round and all contributing with NHL teams. After that though, from 2005-2010, 2nd round and after only Mason Raymond has turned out. The rest haven't done anything at the NHL level.

The dearth of talent from 05/06/07 is definitely catching up to them. So is the bad 2009 and 2010 drafts. I mean, from 2005-2010 the only NHL asset they have is Kassian (via the Hodgson trade). They got some good GP/production out of Raymond before he walked, and Grabner was part of a package for an underachieving defenseman, but basically a 5 year stretch that netted them next to nothing. Best pickup there is probably Tanev in UFA.

that's totally not true at all. Look at Canucks roster only Sedins/Hamhuis/Sbisa/Kassian is 1st round picks. Look at an elite team like the Bruins and see that Paille, Hamilton and Rask are 1st round picks.

Yeah, the measure in the OP is pretty useless.

Because Ron Delorme.

I wish we'd all dig into the scouting thing more to know what really goes on there. We're still giving Gradin a free pass because of Alex Edler. The scouting problem goes way deeper then Delorme, he's just the only name we have to drag through the mud.

The greatest and most fondly remembered contribution by Mike Gillis is going to be the team owning it's own farm club.

Or signing Dan Hamhuis. The community man!

Why is it that playing 19 year old rookies would tank our season, but Dallas can do it with an 18 year old and move into a playoff spot?

Because Jamie Benn that's why. Also we should have taken the 18 y/o that played in their top 6 instead of Horvat

Seriously though, the drafting/development issues are systemic, the worst years of development overlap with the years of uncertainty in the AHL program (the Manitoba connection was stable pre-Jets), poor drafting and the trading of draft picks, and some mismanagement of prospects, and further, the death of a prospect. All of these things are factors. There is not a silver bullet, even firing Ron Delorme, that will fix it all. Hopefully owning the AHL franchise, adding 4 first rounders in 2 years, and seeing a couple of mid rounders hit (Corrado, Cassels?) builds a base of NHL talent that can be used to fill lineup holes on the cheap and/or be used as trade chips to add top end talent.

 

[RandV]

I wish we'd all dig into the scouting thing more to know what really goes on there. We're still giving Gradin a free pass because of Alex Edler. The scouting problem goes way deeper then Delorme, he's just the only name we have to drag through the mud.

Delorme gets picked on because he's the head scout, and in his region of responsibility our own back yard the WHL our drafting has been horrendous. Also didn't help that one time in an interview when he said he didn't need to actually watch games to scout, just observing players in practice was good enough.

 

[BinCookin]

Hi Everybody. Can I give you an "Outside" opinion.

As a Red Wings Fan, I definitely have a different perspective on drafting. We select lots of project players (good speed or good hands or whatever, but inconsistent or "too small" or whatever) and then develop those players for years.

First point last 3 years… pretty much no team has these players in the NHL (Especially Vancouver and Detroit who draft late.

I used to be a Vancouver and Nordiques fan way back in the day, So I always cheer for them a little (not the avalanche anymore… there are some ruffled feathers still over that whole claude lemeiux thing) LOL.

Let me give you a NO BS assessment (My Assessment) of the Vancouver team right now.

Drafting:

1999: Sedin + Sedin (This is your kane/toews - malkin crosby entrance to getting 2 super stars!)
2001: Bieksa, Umberger
2003: Kesler
2004: Shneider, Edler, Brown, Hansen
2005: Raymond
2006: Grabner

Basically all these players are pretty sweet. This is the basis of your president trophies and Vancouver dominance over the next 6-7 years. Made it to the stanley cup final once. Overall I would call this pretty good drafting!

So what happened since then?

Well your team was good. Contenders. They did what many contenders do… trade off picks to make the team stronger to try and win a cup (or something like this). Picks can't contend on a team that is the best in the league… They end up being trade bait.
one bad pick in 2007 white then trade
Hodgson (bad trade to bail on him…).
bad pick Shroeder
1st Pick traded.

A little unlucky but mostly the team bailed on the few young players it had to keep the team competitive.

You guys also signed what looked like a lot of strong UFA's. Say what you will but most of them worked out pretty well for you guys (see presidents trophies).

Recently however some of these trades (goalies) have turned into a circus hoopla. Tortorella is honestly a freakin goon of a coach. He made Richards in NYR look like an idiot, then came to Vancouver and made the entire team look horrible.

I really hope you guys have a comeback year under new coaching. You will realize a lot of your players are not nearly as bad as last season indicates… Sadly A rebuild in Vancouver will be painful because of all the success you have had up till now.

Detroit is in a very similar position (as we haven't found any new Datsyuk's or Zetterbergs) so we have 4-5 years of young kids coming up that we "Love" but honestly, none of them are first line players. We could be in a lot of trouble soon. Lets hope we can draft and develop our way out of this. At least the last 2 years you guys have 2 first rounders per year. We still need to bottom out. or maybe a few of our kids will get better.

Overall Vancouver has had it pretty good honestly. I am sorry you didn't win a Cup during that time. I like the addition of Vrbata. But as for young kids… have to stick by and watch those draft picks. Visit our board… Anger delight over our spoiled fans realizing we are not that good anymore. You have to hope for the players to do better, and just hope some of the young guys surprise

 

[racerjoe]

I am with you, its a young players league. Every year we see under 21s break out in the NHL. No reason to overseason in todays league. Get them playing with NHL players.

It is not just about skill, it can be about playing guys that are much bigger, and much stronger. It is why the AHL is a great tool to use. Let the players play against men, in a league a teir above what they have been playing, and below what they were playing.

 

[digger18]

I think part of our problem has been the fact our core doesn't show our young players what it takes to be winners. The great teams always find diamonds in the rough, regardless of picking late, and, or not having a high number of picks. Detroit for example always seem to have winners showing the younger guys the sacrifices necessary to become solid NHL players. From yzerman, down through Lidstrom, and Zetterburg. Our core has been through choke job after choke job. They haven't figured out what it takes to be winners yet, so how can we expect them to show our younger players what it takes?

 

[digger18]

Just to add to that, we've wasted a high number of picks on smallish players who were supposed to develop into top six NHL forwards. When that didn't pan out, it became difficult to find bottom six roles for those guys, due to their lack of size, and style of play. You just can't turn a player like Jordan Schroeder into an effective 3rd or fourth line grinding checker. This is why we keep seeing the Canucks trying to fill out its bottom six group via trade/fee agency. We've simply used the majority of our picks the past ten years on the same type of player. I honestly would have liked to see us grab Nick Ritchie with our 6th this year. He wasn't the most skilled player on the board, but he has a high chance of being a solid NHL player because he's a big mean kid.

 

[arsmaster*]

So does this mean we don't have "pretty good" players on our team too?

Well we don't exactly have a top 5 NHL scorer currently. We're 3 years removed from that, and it doesn't look like it will be changing immediately.

 

[arsmaster*]

This hasn't had the same negative impact in other organizations though. I agree with the bolded (always liked how Anaheim used Getzlaf/Perry in 4th line/PK role in rookie year), but not sure the solution is putting guys straight on an NHL roster because of a good camp. Also, teams with big pressure from owners to make the playoffs every year will have a harder time gambling on a rookie in a top 9 forward spot.


Because Jamie Benn that's why. Also we should have taken the 18 y/o that played in their top 6 instead of Horvat

1. Perry and Getzlaf both played out their junior eligibility. The lockout got in the way, but they both played 2 years of junior after their drafts.

2. Way too early to say that. People talked about Nichushkin being on Mackinnon's level pre-draft too. I'd say those people have probably hid in a hole.

 

[Bad Goalie]

I think Gillis was. The first GM we had who even gave a crap about development. The system he set up will be improved upon, hopefully, by the new regime. We finally have some decent prospects in the pipeline, but it will be another two/three years before we see how they are brought along.[/QUOTE

"but it will be another two/three years before we see how they are brought along."

Not if you pay attention to the average poster on this site. They want all of the top prospects in Vancouver now or no later than next season 2015-2016). Look at the thread for the potential rosters for 2014-2015 and see how many list Horvat, Jensen, Shinkaruk, Corrado, Gaunce and Fox in their roster choices. Two to three years spells bust for these guys.

I agree with you, but I think we are in a minority. I believe the brass is closer in line with us.

 

[Bad Goalie]

The point wasn't AHL. They were healthy at the end of the preseason BEFORE they were sent down.

They only got injured because they went down? So to keep young prospects from injury keep them all in Vancouver at the obvious expense of veterans and play them when they are not ready? They have no chance of an injury playing the NHL?

 

[Bad Goalie]

It's not an obsession, there's a reason behind it.

The difference between playing 10 minutes on the 3rd/4th line of an NHL team getting extremely sheltered minutes is vastly different from getting 18-20 minutes on the 1st/2nd line while playing top PP/PK minutes.

NHL teams rarely tank from the outset, and thus will need to ice their best lines to win games. As a result, any time a rookie isn't contributing or is bleeding goals, they ride the pine. As you saw this season, a 8-10 point difference is the difference between a playoff spot and picking in the top 6. For most non-joke franchises, it's imperative to stay competitive until you're mathematically eliminated.

As a result, by the time we hit October, most teams have their top 6 nailed down with a couple of 3rd line tweeners ready to jump up into the 1st/2nd line when need be. This means rookies are rarely gifted a roster spot in the top 6 unless the team is brutal and devoid of talent (CLB/EDM). Which would be fine, if we had only 2-3 proven top 6 players, we can probably give our best blue chipper a spot, but it's rarely the case as we've been looking to compete between 2008-2014 (beginning of last season).

Playing against slightly inferior players or players near your level allows you to have the time and space to work on your game (offense in particular). When you're constantly stuck on the 3rd/4th line with grinders like Sestito and Hansen, it's difficult to get into an offensive groove unless you're a speed demon with insane hands capable of creating offense out of nowhere. For most players, they either need a good finisher or a good puck retriever/passer, which is few and far between in the bottom 6.

While Sestito is in the NHL and someone like Alex Giroux in the AHL, there's a huge difference between setting up Alex Giroux in the AHL against inferior players/goalies than setting up Sestito in the NHL against high end defenders and goalies.

I think more than any other sport, mental fortitude is important in hockey. Taking baby steps to the NHL makes it a lot easier for young players to adjust. When you have more time and space to create offense and put up numbers, it's an indication you're doing something right. You could be doing all the right things in the NHL sometimes, but still fail to put up numbers (Kassian). Rookies without the mental fortitude may feel like they hit a glass ceiling and start becoming more hesitant (major cause of slumps) and turns into a vicious cycle.

The big leap is not as easy as it looks. Very few prospects since the cap era outside of the elite and occasional diamond in the rough are able to make the jump right away.

You are correct in stating only the elite skate right into the NHL. From the drafts of 2012 and 2013 no one in spots 11-20 has made made it as a regular in the NHL. Many won't even have come out of Jrs. until this coming season as they are no longer eligible to play there.

In 2012 the first three went right in. 6 of the next seven are not there yet. In 2013, a very strong draft class, 6 went right in and the other four have not made it there yet.
The other issue is that almost to the man these top elite picks that went right in were drafted by non playoff teams, many of which were bottom feeders.

Thus, it safe to say the best picks go to the worst teams who play them immediately because they are the best and are needed to try and improve the team improve and to sell tickets. The better teams get lower picks and they don't make it right away. They need more development and even then outside of the first round their chances of making it at all are highly diminished.

Vancouver has been a good team with lower picks, thus their number of players developed and introduced to the NHL from this standpoint has not been so good. Drafting outside of the top 10 greatly lessens the chances of getting a future star.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Because Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are pretty good.

Don't shoot me until you think first! These two guys are also probably a lot better than Bo.

 

[Addison Rae]

Pretty much agree with everything you said BinCookin, well aside from the Hodgson comment, Kassian is a better hockey player.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Hi Everybody. Can I give you an "Outside" opinion.

As a Red Wings Fan, I definitely have a different perspective on drafting. We select lots of project players (good speed or good hands or whatever, but inconsistent or "too small" or whatever) and then develop those players for years.

First point last 3 years… pretty much no team has these players in the NHL (Especially Vancouver and Detroit who draft late.

I used to be a Vancouver and Nordiques fan way back in the day, So I always cheer for them a little (not the avalanche anymore… there are some ruffled feathers still over that whole claude lemeiux thing) LOL.

Let me give you a NO BS assessment (My Assessment) of the Vancouver team right now.

Drafting:

1999: Sedin + Sedin (This is your kane/toews - malkin crosby entrance to getting 2 super stars!)
2001: Bieksa, Umberger
2003: Kesler
2004: Shneider, Edler, Brown, Hansen
2005: Raymond
2006: Grabner

Basically all these players are pretty sweet. This is the basis of your president trophies and Vancouver dominance over the next 6-7 years. Made it to the stanley cup final once. Overall I would call this pretty good drafting!

So what happened since then?

Well your team was good. Contenders. They did what many contenders do… trade off picks to make the team stronger to try and win a cup (or something like this). Picks can't contend on a team that is the best in the league… They end up being trade bait.
one bad pick in 2007 white then trade
Hodgson (bad trade to bail on him…).
bad pick Shroeder
1st Pick traded.

A little unlucky but mostly the team bailed on the few young players it had to keep the team competitive.

You guys also signed what looked like a lot of strong UFA's. Say what you will but most of them worked out pretty well for you guys (see presidents trophies).

Recently however some of these trades (goalies) have turned into a circus hoopla. Tortorella is honestly a freakin goon of a coach. He made Richards in NYR look like an idiot, then came to Vancouver and made the entire team look horrible.

I really hope you guys have a comeback year under new coaching. You will realize a lot of your players are not nearly as bad as last season indicates… Sadly A rebuild in Vancouver will be painful because of all the success you have had up till now.

Detroit is in a very similar position (as we haven't found any new Datsyuk's or Zetterbergs) so we have 4-5 years of young kids coming up that we "Love" but honestly, none of them are first line players. We could be in a lot of trouble soon. Lets hope we can draft and develop our way out of this. At least the last 2 years you guys have 2 first rounders per year. We still need to bottom out. or maybe a few of our kids will get better.

Overall Vancouver has had it pretty good honestly. I am sorry you didn't win a Cup during that time. I like the addition of Vrbata. But as for young kids… have to stick by and watch those draft picks. Visit our board… Anger delight over our spoiled fans realizing we are not that good anymore. You have to hope for the players to do better, and just hope some of the young guys surprise

This is the best analysis on this thread. A neutral outsider who just explains it clearly in black and white without any emotional hubbub.

It takes a lot of time and research to go back through 15 or more years of draft picks round by round to come to a simple conclusion. After the first 10 picks are selected, the chances of the rest of the draft making it to the NHL period is greatly reduced and becoming impact players is even a slimmer possibility. For every exception you can name to disprove this, an armload can be named to counterbalance it.

It's really hard to get on an NHL roster. Making enough impact to stay there is even harder.

 

[Bad Goalie]

It is not just about skill, it can be about playing guys that are much bigger, and much stronger. It is why the AHL is a great tool to use. Let the players play against men, in a league a teir above what they have been playing, and below what they were playing.

"in a league a teir above what they have been playing, and below what they were playing." Huh? Yes it's (the AHL) a tier quite a bit above what they were playing (Jrs.). I don't understand how it's also below what they were playing. Do you mean also tier below what they want to be playing (NHL)?

 

[arsmaster*]

Don't shoot me until you think first! These two guys are also probably a lot better than Bo.

The context of that post was why can Dallas put Nichushkin in their opening day lineup but we can't and shouldn't with Bo.

I'd say because we can't play him with those two guys (Benn and Seguin) who IIRC were both top 10 in scoring in the league, and Seguin was top 5. Also easier to integrate a winger than a center. It's not as if Horvat is getting thrown on a line with two top wingers in the league, he won't be playing with a Kane or Hossa here.

Of course both are better than Bo, one was a gold medal olympian this year and the other was top 5 in scoring.

 

[LolClarkson*]

I think part of our problem has been the fact our core doesn't show our young players what it takes to be winners. The great teams always find diamonds in the rough, regardless of picking late, and, or not having a high number of picks. Detroit for example always seem to have winners showing the younger guys the sacrifices necessary to become solid NHL players. From yzerman, down through Lidstrom, and Zetterburg. Our core has been through choke job after choke job. They haven't figured out what it takes to be winners yet, so how can we expect them to show our younger players what it takes?

Markus Naslund, Henrik Sedin and Nick Lidstrom were all Swedish captains.

SJ takes a soft small BPA player who fell in the draft due to injuries and nets Thomas Hertl

VAN takes a soft small BPA player who fell in the draft due to injuries and nets Jordan Schroeder.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

We've had a combination of unsettled farm team situation... a handful of bad picks (White especially)... traded away high draft picks... the death of a top prospect... success breeding lower draft positioning and picking guys who weren't necessarily surefire NHLers (Schroeder)... and a bit of general bad luck (not hitting a home run with a late round guy)... all spelling a doldrum period right a the moment. "Development" had little to nothing to do with that. It could be argued that we developed the guys we had pretty well. Schneider, Tanev, Lack, Raymond, Burrows, Hansen and Bieksa were all "developed" by us.

Fortunately, we've gone a long way to restocking the larder over the last couple of years. Now we're just going to need a bit of patience. Sadly patience isn't one of our long suits.

 

[arsmaster*]

Markus Naslund, Henrik Sedin and Nick Lidstrom were all Swedish captains.

SJ takes a soft small BPA player who fell in the draft due to injuries and nets Thomas Hertl

VAN takes a soft small BPA player who fell in the draft due to injuries and nets Jordan Schroeder.

Thomas hertL is 6 inches taller and 25lbs heavier. Am I missing sarcasm or something?

 

[LolClarkson*]

Thomas hertL is 6 inches taller and 25lbs heavier. Am I missing sarcasm or something?

No you aren't missing sarc.

6 inches taller ? I didn't know they stacked butter that high.

 

[racerjoe]

"in a league a teir above what they have been playing, and below what they were playing." Huh? Yes it's (the AHL) a tier quite a bit above what they were playing (Jrs.). I don't understand how it's also below what they were playing. Do you mean also tier below what they want to be playing (NHL)?

Sorry, yeah I miss-worded that. I meant a tier above where they were playing, (jrs), and a tier below where they want to end up (NHL).