Why did Keefe break up Matthews and Marner?

[TheRumble]

Nylander and Tavares combo was a bad defensively and were getting caved in.

Marner and Matthews are two excellent two way forwards in their own right so he opted to have Marner with Tavares to cover up some of his deficiencies and Matthews can do the same for Nylander. That said, Nylander has been a lot better defensively this year. I've even seen him take reps on the PK.

With ROR being added, Tavares can be more of a winger now which simplifies his defensive responsibilities.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Agreed.
I wouldn't make the point using +/- but I'm pretty sure Mess was just saying that we're spreading out the players this way so that we don't have a defensively liable 2nd line.

Mess spent most of that post dumping on Tavares defensively, and tried to use +/- to do it, even though +/- is a horrible way to evaluate defensive ability.
Using +/-, we'd conclude that Bunting was the best defensive forward on the team, when he's actually one of the worst.
I'm more concerned with our top line defensively right now more than I ever was with the 2nd line. I'd rather not have so much defensive responsibility rest on Matthews alone.
If we're trying to bring defensive balance in the top six, it would probably make the most sense to split up Bunting and Nylander, especially while O'Rielly is in the top six.

I agree that +/- isn't the most useful stat but I would say it's pretty telling when both years that Marner and Tavares were together that they've been a plus and 2 out of the 3 yrs that Tavares was with Willy, they were a minus.

Marner is obviously much better defensively than Nylander, but for the record, the only time Tavares has been a minus with us is when he got sub-0.900 goaltending at 5v5, and his minus status had a lot more to do with that. For reference, only 2 out of 32 teams have sub-0.900 goaltending at 5v5 this year.

 

[Mess]

I agree that +/- isn't the most useful stat but I would say it's pretty telling when both years that Marner and Tavares were together that they've been a plus and 2 out of the 3 yrs that Tavares was with Willy, they were a minus.

Therein lies the truth in that evidence, and the stats don't lie, as they show a pattern that needed addressing.

JT+ WN = negative +/- while JT + MM = positive +/-. & Matthews with either MM or WN = positive +/-. So the weakest link defensively is Tavares, and Nylander duo doesn't fix that problem.

It doesn't help your team no matter how many goals and assists you put up offensively if +/- shows more pucks are going in your own net while your out on the ice at even strength (where most of the game is played).

Here is the game log for Tavares for Feb during the Leafs easiest part of the schedule against the weakest opponents. (The O'Reilly hatty saved JT's month ( with a +4 defensive pushing above the negative line).

PS. Wouldn't be surprised in time if JT is moved to the wing permanently, as with his footspeed and defensive abilities, he can be sheltered more with less responsibilities.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So the weakest link defensively is Tavares

The weakest link defensively is not Tavares.

 

[Morgs]

Because Nylander & Matthews have just as good chemistry.

It makes more sense anyway, as Matthews playmaking is underutilized when playing with Mitch, and Tavares thrives with a true playmaker. I always felt like Tavares/Nylander was like trying to put a square peg in a round hole with their play styles. Nylander and Matthews are N/S players that can play E/W, but Marner and Tavares are both E/W players that can play N/S. Hard to complain about the results, and it's not like Keefe is afraid to flip them around if he feels it isn't working.

 

[DarkKnight]

Beginning of the season Matthews and Marner weren't clicking, neither were jt and Willy. Keefe switched them up and the team started playing better

Bunting was awful too to start the year, he was literally doing nothing on that line. He’s awesome now.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Shocked at the responses here but not really.. Memory of goldfishes.

They were split because they stopped producing and it was time. This forum was crying to split them apart after the first 15 games and he did and the team has been better since. Matthews is having a rough year, we couldn't afford both Marner and Matthews not producing if Matthews couldn't bury pucks.

 

[Zybalto]

I agree that +/- isn't the most useful stat but I would say it's pretty telling when both years that Marner and Tavares were together that they've been a plus and 2 out of the 3 yrs that Tavares was with Willy, they were a minus.

Over the last 3 seasons:

Campbell, Mrazek, Hutch and Andersen his last injury plagued year being the main goalies makes looking at plus minus worse than useless.

Use shot,scoring chance differential or xGF% IMO.

 

[Zybalto]

5v5 from the start of the 2020 season to present:

Marner/Tavares:
TOI: 859:19
Shot differential: 50.82%
xGF%: 53.58
Goal Differential: 52.44%


Marner without Tavares:
TOI: 1881:52
Shot differential: 56.70%
xGF%: 61.58
Goal Differential: 64.02%


Tavares without Marner:
TOI: 1827:21
Shot differential: 53.03%
xGF%: 56.16
Goal Differential: 53.49%

 

[Mess]

+/- is a bad stat, but no way that you think Matthews and Tavares are in the same echelon as defensive players?

Matthews and Marner are far superior defensively to Tavares and Nylander.

Here are Leafs top 9 forwards on the season sorted by +/- stats .

Its not hard to point out the weakest link and why lines were changed to address it. (even with the change its barely holding JT above the line defensively.

All these 9 forwards played in front of the same goalies in the same games, so goalie sv% is not a valid argument in regards to JT only. While the Bunting - Matthews -- Nylander line seems to flourish despite who is in net.

Its pretty hard to be a negative +/- player on a top 3 team in the standings because you're winning far more than your losing games which should reflect in a players +/- stats accordingly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Here are Leafs top 9 forwards on the season sorted by +/- stats .
Its not hard to point out the weakest link and why lines were changed to address it.

+/- is not a defensive stat.
The lines were not changed because of +/-.

All these 9 forwards played in front of the same goalies in the same games, so goalie sv% is not a valid argument in regards to JT only. While the Bunting - Matthews -- Nylander line seems to flourish despite who is in net.

Just because they played behind the same goalies, doesn't mean they got the same goaltending performance behind them.
Just as Matthews wasn't to blame when he got 0.884 goaltending behind him last year at 5v5, Tavares isn't to blame when goaltending performs poorly behind him.
If you want to measure defensive performance, then measure defensive performance, instead of looking at garbage stats like +/- and making incorrect assumptions.
Also, for the record, Tavares is +10 at 5v5 this year.
Bunting-Matthews-Nylander has been the weak link defensively this year, but they're being saved by goaltending, and they've been dynamite offensively.

 

[Zybalto]

+/- is not a defensive stat.
The lines were not changed because of +/-.

Just because they played behind the same goalies, doesn't mean they got the same goaltending performance behind them.
Just as Matthews wasn't to blame when he got 0.884 goaltending behind him last year at 5v5, Tavares isn't to blame when goaltending performs poorly behind him.
If you want to measure defensive performance, then measure defensive performance, instead of looking at garbage stats like +/- and making incorrect assumptions.
Also, for the record, Tavares is +10 at 5v5 this year.
Bunting-Matthews-Nylander has been the weak link defensively this year, but they're being saved by goaltending, and they've been dynamite offensively.

Yup. If we really want to put a massive weight on goal differential (and everyone talking about lines here is talking 5v5):

Top 5v5 GF% this season among forwards with 700+ minutes (147 total)

Tavares: 57.35% (37th out of 147)

Comparables: Crosby, Point, Hughes

I don't mind listing it in (especially in 3 year samples) but xGF% and other differentials are a far more accurate representation of play.

 

[Buds17]

For the betterment of the team. He might very well put them back together again at some point for the same reason.

 

[WillyC]

Maybe they’re (Shanny) conscience was playing heavy because they promised JT he would have Mitch on his wing when John signed and had a career season… and there wasn’t really an urge to ever split them, other than Matthews wanting Marner on his wing.

Matthews and Nylander should be the #1 line anyway.

 

[tmlms13]

Lets try the Nylander - Auston - Marner line combo again. I remember was so looking forward to the leafs having one of the "super lines" that we see with other teams. The Modern Kid Line was starting to get some traction but they were never really kept together much.

I know this might be some open wounds but we can all have some fun with ourselves right? I got the perfect nickname for a Nylander Matthews Marner Line combination.....

The "One for Eight" Line..... It's the eight year of this era and this year we'll get the first series win so 1 for 8, simple right?........ However, this is what makes it stick: Matthews draft spot? #1.... Marner draft spot? #4.... Nylander draft spot? #8.... 1 for 8 Perfect.

 

[Gabriel426]

The whole team was struggling except for Willie early in the season. Keefe mixed up the lines then Willie remains great, MM got that point streak going and the rest is history.
Don’t think they will switch back but do see Keefe creating three lines where MM is pair with ROR and Engvall.
One of JT and AM will have Willie and Bunting on their wings and the other will be left with Kerfoot and Calle.

 

[notbias]

Here are Leafs top 9 forwards on the season sorted by +/- stats .

Its not hard to point out the weakest link and why lines were changed to address it. (even with the change its barely holding JT above the line defensively.

View attachment 655188

All these 9 forwards played in front of the same goalies in the same games, so goalie sv% is not a valid argument in regards to JT only. While the Bunting - Matthews -- Nylander line seems to flourish despite who is in net.

Its pretty hard to be a negative +/- player on a top 3 team in the standings because you're winning far more than your losing games which should reflect in a players +/- stats accordingly.

"+/- is a bad stat"

"Let me double down on that to push my narrative" - Mess

Classic Mess.

The lines were changed because they weren't clicking well.

I still want three scoring lines and think Marner/Matthews is one of the best lines in hockey.

Hoping we can maybe see Tavares with two skilled grinders since he used to thrive there.

Test out

X - Matthews - Marner
X - Tavares - X
X - O'Reilly - Nylander
ZAR - Kampf - X

Rotate Bunting, Kerfoot, Jarnkrok, Acciari, Engvall, whoever, to see if there are any good fits.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

From memory, Tavares offensively was struggling hard.

Also the Matthews line was not playing well defensively leading up to the switch. They were getting scored on a lot

Matthews himself also wasn’t working offensively with Marner. Around game 25 Matthews was like PPG

 

[therealkoho]

The chemistry between the two is so good, why did he split them up? Is it to get more balance in the top two lines? Though Marner has great chemistry with Tavares and Nylander has great chemistry with Matthews. They’re pretty much interchangeable no?

Will Matthews and Marner be reunited for the playoffs?

No they aren't interchangeable, and for whatever reason once upon a time Willie just couldn't get it going with JT. Maybe he was sulking a bit because he wanted to have what possibly seemed like the #1 job to him next to Matthews?

It certainly might be different now. Willie since around December seems to be a lot more mature and certainly less selfish with the puck then he once was. It's just a matter of time now for Matthews to get rocking.

I don't know if it's worth breaking up the MTO just yet. Its early days but those guys seem to have some real chemistry. We shouldnt expect 13 points every night, but they might produce a goal or three most nights. Bunting and Willie are both producing at career best numbers and while Matthews production isn't what was expected its still pretty good and a lot of teams would welcome it.

I kind of like the idea of the "3" centre's, and while you should try it, I'm not sure if the Leafs have enough premier wingers to go around.

 

[McSnypsky]

Just can't see ROR not getting the Kucherov assignment and let JT Mitch do their thing.

 

[Gabriel426]

Honestly, I don't want to see the AM and MM combo as a regular line again. There are just times that MM will just look for AM instead of driving to the net or shooting at net, then there are times that AM just floats around and waiting for the pass from MM to score instead of being engage and playing a true 200 ft game.
To me, they are both better players when they are not together, maybe stats wise, it won't show it that way but it is better for the team.

 

[BayStBullies]

You guys have a really short memory. The line was not producing and switching it up immediately fixed the issue. Aside from Matthews, it has remained better. Matthews is just very off this year. Matthews + Marner is also a combo that vanishes in the playoffs.

 

[hamzarocks]

Because we're in the Ryan'O'Money era

Best center gets the best winger

5v5 from the start of the 2020 season to present:

Marner/Tavares:
TOI: 859:19
Shot differential: 50.82%
xGF%: 53.58
Goal Differential: 52.44%


Marner without Tavares:
TOI: 1881:52
Shot differential: 56.70%
xGF%: 61.58
Goal Differential: 64.02%


Tavares without Marner:
TOI: 1827:21
Shot differential: 53.03%
xGF%: 56.16
Goal Differential: 53.49%

So Tavares is a poor finisher

 

[Leafidelity]

Its foolish to have loyalty to lines. Changes keep creativity fresh and reduces the chance of players falling into ruts.

 

[Primary Assist]

If Mitch/JT get cold again then I'm sure Keefe will put Mitch and Matty back together. We have a wealth of talent, just need to ride the hot hands w/o too much overthinking