Why can't the Wings take care of business in playoff OT anymore?

[Sadekuuro]

At the end of the 1998-99 season the Wings' playoff OT record was about what you'd expect, exactly .500 all time.

Since then: 11 wins, 24 losses. 9-13 under Babcock. And while we no longer have a talent edge over our opponents, we did for many of those years, and still got consistently sub-coin flip results. Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[InjuredChoker]

would want to know more about the opponents, how long those OTs were and how they ended.

too much time has passed to remember.

 

[icKx]

Can't extrapolate anything from the pre-Babcock era. Completely different team.

9-13 isn't far enough off the .500 mark to where it could be definitively argued as some factor other than chance, imo.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Because Babcocks secret weapon is Ericsson

 

[Sadekuuro]

You're right about the pre-Babcock era being different of course, but what a run of poor fortune, if you want to consider it such. Also suggests maybe we're being too conservative; sit-back teams don't do that well in OT.

would want to know more about the opponents, how long those OTs were and how they ended.

too much time has passed to remember.

Wed May 3 2000 Colorado 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G4, put them up 3-1 (Drury)
Wed Apr 18 2001 Los Angeles 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G4, tied series, heinous choke (Belanger)
Mon Apr 23 2001 Los Angeles 3, Detroit 2 (OT) won series (Deadmarsh)
Wed Apr 17 2002 Vancouver 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G1 (Sedin)
Mon May 20 2002 Colorado 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G2, tied series (Drury)
Wed May 22 2002 Detroit 2, Colorado 1 (OT) G3 (Olausson)
Mon May 27 2002 Colorado 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G5, put Colorado up 3-2 (Forsberg)
Tue Jun 4 2002 Carolina 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G1 (Francis)
Sat Jun 8 2002 Detroit 3, Carolina 2 (3OT) G3, went up 2-1 (Larionov)
Thu Apr 10 2003 Anaheim 2, Detroit 1 (3OT) G1 (Kariya)
Wed Apr 16 2003 Anaheim 3, Detroit 2 (OT) won series (Rucchin)
Thu Apr 22 2004 Calgary 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G1 (Nilson)
Mon May 3 2004 Calgary 1, Detroit 0 (OT) won series (Gelinas)
Fri Apr 21 2006 Detroit 3, Edmonton 2 (2OT) G1 (Maltby)
Tue Apr 25 2006 Edmonton 4, Detroit 3 (2OT) G3, put Edmonton up 2-1 (Stoll)
Sun Apr 22 2007 Detroit 2, Calgary 1 (2OT) won series (Franzen)
Wed May 2 2007 Detroit 3, San Jose 2 (OT) G4, tied series, totally stole this game (Schneider)
Sun May 13 2007 Anaheim 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G2, tied series (Niedermayer)
Sun May 20 2007 Anaheim 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G5 (Selanne)
Fri Apr 18 2008 Detroit 2, Nashville 1 (OT) G5, took 3-2 series lead (Franzen)
Mon Jun 2 2008 Pittsburgh 4, Detroit 3 (3OT) G5, with the Cup ready (Sykora)
Sun May 3 2009 Anaheim 4, Detroit 3 (3OT) G2, tied series (Marchant)
Tue May 19 2009 Detroit 3, Chicago 2 (OT) G2 to go up 2-0 (Samuelsson)
Fri May 22 2009 Chicago 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G3 (Sharp)
Wed May 27 2009 Detroit 2, Chicago 1 (OT) won series (Helm)
Tue May 4 2010 San Jose 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G3, put San Jose up 3-0 (Marleau)
Fri Apr 29 2011 San Jose 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G1 (Ferriero)
Wed May 4 2011 San Jose 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G3, put San Jose up 3-0 (Setoguchi)
Thu May 2 2013 Detroit 5, Anaheim 4 (OT) G2, tied series (Filppula)
Mon May 6 2013 Detroit 3, Anaheim 2 (OT) G4, tied series (Brunner)
Wed May 8 2013 Anaheim 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G5 (Bonino)
Fri May 10 2013 Detroit 4, Anaheim 3 (OT) forced G7 (Zetterberg)
Wed May 29 2013 Chicago 2, Detroit 1 (OT) won series (Seabrook)
Thu Apr 24 2014 Boston 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G4, put Boston up 3-1 (Iginla)
Thu Apr 23 2015 Tampa Bay 3, Detroit 2 (OT) today (Johnson)

What strikes me about this list besides a lot of bad memories is lots of late regulation leads blown. :/ Also that we have played at least one OT game every season on the list except 2012.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Not sure I agree with the conservative thing. I think a part of what I remember about these is almost all of them are the result of a bad d-man read or a hard miss that rims around to death. A ton of them in my memory are a complete over-commitment or somebody getting cute trying to play the hero leading to an odd man ending.

The Wings seem to press in a really bad way in overtime.

 

[Sadekuuro]

Not sure I agree with the conservative thing.

I'm not sure I do either, just musing about the numbers. I agree that they've often pressed too hard, leading to blown assignments.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Its funny, I was going to make a sarcastic post in the pGDT along the lines of "why can't we win OT games like every other team?", then I found it somebody already did it for me

A quick scan of that list supports my pet theory that the team that wins the OT games usually wins the series.

"This proves why Babcock needs to go/Holland needs to go/our $5M goalie needs to be traded whilst he still has value"

 

[alfbundy]

As a Wings fan I have always dreaded OT in the playoffs. About the only time I felt confident going into OT, was when Robert Lang scored the tying goal against the Sharks in game 4 of that 2007 series. Even in the 2003 series against the Ducks, Sergei scored on Giguere late in game 4 to tie it up and everyone thought it would finally turn the momentum in our favor, but we still ended up losing in OT.

 

[Sentinel]

Yeah, we sucked at OT pretty much since the 90s. Especially after late game collapses.

 

[GMR]

Hard to explain, other than it has to be a team attitude and a belief.

Conversely, it seems teams like today's Blackhawks and the Ducks back in 2003 and 2007 were always winning in overtime. They believe they will win. They don't make stupid mistakes. The players make the right decisions as to when to throw the puck at the net, when to pinch, etc.

 

[alfbundy]

Hard to explain, other than it has to be a team attitude and a belief.

Conversely, it seems teams like today's Blackhawks and the Ducks back in 2003 and 2007 were always winning in overtime. They believe they will win. They don't make stupid mistakes. The players make the right decisions as to when to throw the puck at the net, when to pinch, etc.

I still have nightmares about that game 5 loss to the Ducks in 2007. That was way more devastating than last night. We were about to take a 3-2 lead in the series and probably gone on to win the Cup against Ottawa. They got a powerplay with a minute to go and tied it with 47 seconds left in the game. Then in OT Lilja (Ericsson reminds me of him) lost the puck in front of his own net and the rest is history...

 

[GMR]

I still have nightmares about that game 5 loss to the Ducks in 2007. That was way more devastating than last night. We were about to take a 3-2 lead in the series and probably gone on to win the Cup against Ottawa. They got a powerplay with a minute to go and tied it with 47 seconds left in the game. Then in OT Lilja (Ericsson reminds me of him) lost the puck in front of his own net and the rest is history...

True. But who's to say we'd have gone to the Finals the next two seasons if we won in 2007? Teams don't make the Finals three years in a row anymore. The team would have been less hungry, and Anaheim would conversely be more hungry.

But yes, that loss sucked.

 

[sarcastro]

Not having as much talent would be reason one.

 

[GMR]

Not having as much talent would be reason one.

That doesn't explain it.

We were the most talented and successful team of the 2000's, yet our OT record was abysmal.

 

[Sadekuuro]

As a Wings fan I have always dreaded OT in the playoffs. About the only time I felt confident going into OT, was when Robert Lang scored the tying goal against the Sharks in game 4 of that 2007 series. Even in the 2003 series against the Ducks, Sergei scored on Giguere late in game 4 to tie it up and everyone thought it would finally turn the momentum in our favor, but we still ended up losing in OT.

When I have some time I'll go through and determine how many of these games represent blown 3rd period leads. I have a sense that there are more of those than Wings comebacks and games that remained tied from earlier in the game combined, but we'll see.

 

[InjuredChoker]

When I have some time I'll go through and determine how many of these games represent blown 3rd period leads. I have a sense that there are more of those than Wings comebacks and games that remained tied from earlier in the game combined, but we'll see.

until 5 years ago or so, wings were usually the better team than average playoff matchup and thus were likely to have the lead more often than not. and this increases chances of blown leads, compared to comebacks.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

True. But who's to say we'd have gone to the Finals the next two seasons if we won in 2007? Teams don't make the Finals three years in a row anymore. The team would have been less hungry, and Anaheim would conversely be more hungry.

But yes, that loss sucked.

False.

Just kidding, I know your talking about hockey


who knows we might have.. after the cup they still went back.. So win 2 cups back to back, and go for a 3peat

 

[joe89]

I don't remember nor can speak for the years before, but my thesis about that Babcock is that he loves his "safe" players. You might think this is a great thing in close games, but I believe it backfires just as often unless your "safe" players are truly special.

Drew Miller can create three times as many scoring chances as your scoring guys and be awesome defensively but at the end of the day he won't score you the GWG. Miller has 14 points in 86 games this season. He played as much as Nyquist and Tatar last game. Zidlicky put up a 34 point season(40 pt pace with us) and can make the game deciding pass, but we played Quincey who put up half his production this season twice as much. I could go on and on with examples.

Defending yourself is awesome, it's a must, but at the same time you have to balance it with a go-for-it mentality which I believe the Wings have lacked for quite a few years now. The easy solution would be to just find better players who happen to be two-way monsters, but beggars can't be choosers. Play your skill guy as if it was a regular game and hope your goalie makes the saves he need. That's how you win in OT imo.

 

[alfbundy]

who knows we might have.. after the cup they still went back.. So win 2 cups back to back, and go for a 3peat

That 2009 team with Hossa was the best of the three on paper and Osgood should have won the Conn Smythe had we won the Cup. The injuries really killed us in the Final, but in the end we had game 7 at home and blew it. Damn you Max Talbot.

 

[Sadekuuro]

Wings blew a 3rd period lead (17 games; record 5-12):

Wed May 3 2000 Colorado 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G4, put them up 3-1 (Drury)
Wed Apr 18 2001 Los Angeles 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G4, tied series, heinous choke (Belanger)
Mon Apr 23 2001 Los Angeles 3, Detroit 2 (OT) won series (Deadmarsh)
Wed Apr 17 2002 Vancouver 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G1 (Sedin)
Sun May 13 2007 Anaheim 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G2, tied series (Niedermayer)
Sun May 20 2007 Anaheim 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G5 (Selanne)
Fri Apr 18 2008 Detroit 2, Nashville 1 (OT) G5, took 3-2 series lead (Franzen)
Mon Jun 2 2008 Pittsburgh 4, Detroit 3 (3OT) G5, with the Cup ready (Sykora)
Tue May 19 2009 Detroit 3, Chicago 2 (OT) G2 to go up 2-0 (Samuelsson)
Wed May 27 2009 Detroit 2, Chicago 1 (OT) won series (Helm)
Tue May 4 2010 San Jose 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G3, put San Jose up 3-0 (Marleau)
Fri Apr 29 2011 San Jose 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G1 (Ferriero)
Wed May 4 2011 San Jose 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G3, put San Jose up 3-0 (Setoguchi)
Thu May 2 2013 Detroit 5, Anaheim 4 (OT) G2, tied series (Nyquist)
Fri May 10 2013 Detroit 4, Anaheim 3 (OT) forced G7 (Zetterberg)
Thu Apr 24 2014 Boston 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G4, put Boston up 3-1 (Iginla)
Thu Apr 23 2015 Tampa Bay 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G4, tied series (Johnson)


Wings tied the game in the 3rd (11 games; record 5-6):

Mon May 20 2002 Colorado 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G2, tied series (Drury)
Wed May 22 2002 Detroit 2, Colorado 1 (OT) G3 (Olausson)
Mon May 27 2002 Colorado 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G5, put Colorado up 3-2 (Forsberg)
Sat Jun 8 2002 Detroit 3, Carolina 2 (3OT) G3, went up 2-1 (Larionov)
Wed Apr 16 2003 Anaheim 3, Detroit 2 (OT) won series (Rucchin)
Fri Apr 21 2006 Detroit 3, Edmonton 2 (2OT) G1 (Maltby)
Tue Apr 25 2006 Edmonton 4, Detroit 3 (2OT) G3, put Edmonton up 2-1 (Stoll)
Wed May 2 2007 Detroit 3, San Jose 2 (OT) G4, tied series, totally stole this game (Schneider)
Sun May 3 2009 Anaheim 4, Detroit 3 (3OT) G2, tied series (Marchant)
Mon May 6 2013 Detroit 3, Anaheim 2 (OT) G4, tied series (Brunner)
Wed May 29 2013 Chicago 2, Detroit 1 (OT) won series (Seabrook)


Game was tied since before the 3rd (7 games; record 1-6):

Tue Jun 4 2002 Carolina 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G1 (Francis)
Thu Apr 10 2003 Anaheim 2, Detroit 1 (3OT) G1 (Kariya)
Thu Apr 22 2004 Calgary 2, Detroit 1 (OT) G1 (Nilson)
Mon May 3 2004 Calgary 1, Detroit 0 (OT) won series (Gelinas)
Sun Apr 22 2007 Detroit 2, Calgary 1 (2OT) won series (Franzen)
Fri May 22 2009 Chicago 4, Detroit 3 (OT) G3 (Sharp)
Wed May 8 2013 Anaheim 3, Detroit 2 (OT) G5 (Bonino)

 

[SpookyTsuki]

That 2009 team with Hossa was the best of the three on paper and Osgood should have won the Conn Smythe had we won the Cup. The injuries really killed us in the Final, but in the end we had game 7 at home and blew it. Damn you Max Talbot.

wasnt that the Series Applegator was scratched for a vet? even though he scored a goal through ALL of the penguins roster. And also a Detroit player as well? And I think he scored another one, But not as impressive for a rookie

 

[SpookyTsuki]

I don't remember nor can speak for the years before, but my thesis about that Babcock is that he loves his "safe" players. You might think this is a great thing in close games, but I believe it backfires just as often unless your "safe" players are truly special.

Drew Miller can create three times as many scoring chances as your scoring guys and be awesome defensively but at the end of the day he won't score you the GWG. Miller has 14 points in 86 games this season. He played as much as Nyquist and Tatar last game. Zidlicky put up a 34 point season(40 pt pace with us) and can make the game deciding pass, but we played Quincey who put up half his production this season twice as much. I could go on and on with examples.

Defending yourself is awesome, it's a must, but at the same time you have to balance it with a go-for-it mentality which I believe the Wings have lacked for quite a few years now. The easy solution would be to just find better players who happen to be two-way monsters, but beggars can't be choosers. Play your skill guy as if it was a regular game and hope your goalie makes the saves he need. That's how you win in OT imo.

Quincey did have 2 points in this series.. Maybe 3 now.

 

[Heaton]

I don't remember nor can speak for the years before, but my thesis about that Babcock is that he loves his "safe" players. You might think this is a great thing in close games, but I believe it backfires just as often unless your "safe" players are truly special.

Drew Miller can create three times as many scoring chances as your scoring guys and be awesome defensively but at the end of the day he won't score you the GWG. Miller has 14 points in 86 games this season. He played as much as Nyquist and Tatar last game. Zidlicky put up a 34 point season(40 pt pace with us) and can make the game deciding pass, but we played Quincey who put up half his production this season twice as much. I could go on and on with examples.

Defending yourself is awesome, it's a must, but at the same time you have to balance it with a go-for-it mentality which I believe the Wings have lacked for quite a few years now. The easy solution would be to just find better players who happen to be two-way monsters, but beggars can't be choosers. Play your skill guy as if it was a regular game and hope your goalie makes the saves he need. That's how you win in OT imo.

I've read this exact same description about virtually every coach on every board. I've read it about Q and Chicago from their fans. I've read it from AV and New York from their fans. I've read it about Sutter and LA from their fans. Maybe all of the really good coaches do it because they've found out that it's the best strategy to use. Seems kinda strange if it wasn't that all of the better teams employ the same strategy.

 

[alfbundy]

Great work there Sadekuuro.

The OT record is below .500 even when we tied the game in the 3rd. Any way you look at it, Wings have not been good in overtime.