Who would Detroit take at 4?

[ricky0034]

Nearly dead. We still have a chance at Stutzle. Every year I see "no way <insert player> drops past <insert pick>" and every year people are shocked when it happens. This year probably has the most controversy at #2 that we've seen in some time. Also, many analysts/scouts have either Byfield or Stutzle outside the top 3. Finally, when is the draft actually happening? We might see these kids play more by that time, which could shake stuff up further.

worth noting that when that happens it's usually someone reaching to grab a Center though,this time the guys that would have to fall ARE the Centers

could still happen I guess but I think that makes it a lot more unlikely

 

[ShanahanMan]

I think if we didn’t go so D heavy last year, we probably would have gone with Drysdale. I just can’t see us doing the same this year, regardless if we say we’re doing BPA.

I'm thinking it’s probably between Perfetti and Raymond.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

@4 Raymond? or trade down 5-9: Drysdale, Askarov, Perfetti, Sanderson, Rossi.

10.Lundell
11.Hughes

 

[Henkka]

I think if we didn’t go so D heavy last year, we probably would have gone with Drysdale. I just can’t see us doing the same this year, regardless if we say we’re doing BPA.

That has all the time, since that 2019 draft, been my hunch about this 2020 draft would go. They have known already year before, that this is a great forward draft. No matter what the pick height is. Like there is, those ~7 options. That's why they did surprise us all at 2019 taking defencemen.

I see no reason taking Drysdale, because I don't see him being significantly better PP quarterback vs. Hronek or Seider. He is good offensively, but so are those two. What's the point taking that kind of guy, if there's finally some elite forward skill we lack a lot more than skill on defence? 3rd pair RD should more veteran styled stay-at-home and build some skill foundation on left side next on defence.

Also, I'm 99% sure, Drysdale isn't the 4th best talent in this draft. He is just overhyped, because he could the best defenceman. But when those ~7 better forward talents still exists, he is not a BPA at #4. There's just no reason to pick him, other than some desperate losing move.

 

[Dotter]

He's got insane skill and elite hockey sense, and an amazing mind for the game, I agree. But speed, pace and overall skating? No way. His acceleration is downright poor, so much so he appears sluggish.

Perfetti’s skating is also among the best in the class and it’s highlighted by his lateral quickness and balance that let him make plays with little space. There’s definitely room to grow as far as straight-line speed is concerned, but that’s not likely to impact his ability to produce offensively.

https://thehockeywriters.com/cole-perfetti-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

I've seen more than a few analysts question his work ethic, which I actually think is wrong--he's actually good in puck battles and his compete level is high. It's just his skating makes him look lazy. Technically it's poor; he's awkward and inefficient. I think it makes him more tired than he would be if he had better form. It causes him to float too much or even sit down in spots. His defense and forechecking suffer also. I just don't think coaches would rely on him as a result.

Yeah it's wrong.

All-in-all, Perfetti is an exciting and tantalizing blend of skill, smarts, and work ethic, all the while being a dual-threat as both a playmaker and goal scorer.

2020 Prospect Profile: Cole Perfetti - DraftGeek

Perfetti is able to overcome his size disadvantage with how hard he works. He’s shown instances where he’s able to dig in his skates to maintain a strong center of gravity while working against larger opponents, and at times has shown some nice puck protection skills. Here you’re able to see Perfetti at his best while protecting the puck, as he’s able to spin off an attacker to maintain possession of the puck

Is there a very special player there? Yes. Could he be one of the best in this draft "with the right" coaching/system/development? Definitely. But, I've seen that caveat made of many players before and most don't pan out. The Red Wings are picking at #4, not #8. They don't need to take risks or make concessions. There are players with just as much upside but without that level of downside.

The only issue I see with Goal Perfetti is his first couple steps. Once he gets speed, he can keep pace with damn near anyone. I watched break-away with defenders on each of his sides and couldn't stop him -- and he is strong on his skates. His goal scoring ability is lethal and he can score 10-different ways while leaving his competition embarrassed. He's not a one-and-done guy, he has a toolbox that would 'wow' Datsyuk. I believe he is the top goal scorer and stick handler in this draft. His edge-work is amazing and elusiveness is damn near elite. He needs to work on his acceleration and put on some muscle, but other than that... he has elite game breaking upside... and even has good potential to become a centerman.

Rossi is too small I don't see upside in his skating
Raymond is winger through-and-through and I don't see his scoring translating to the NHL.
Drysdale, I'd take him if Yzerman has a plan.

But really, I want Stutzle...but I'll gladly take Perfetti as the consolation prize. Even more, Perfetti could become the bigger impact (more lethal) player between the two. I wouldn't bet against it.

There's also a good video of Perfetti on Youtube titled "Clutch Perfetti" or something like that illustrating how clutch is just another part of his game that doesn't get talked about.

EDIT: Regardless who Yzerman picks at #4, they will need time to development. You'll need to have plenty of patience as they could be 2 or 3 years out from even sniffing the NHL.

 

[Marky9er]

^^ What I do like about Perfetti's skating in combination with his stickhandling, vision, and playmaking....he pivots suddenly firing off passes in newly created lanes. In that regard he's lightning quick. Scouch video was pretty good and brought a bit different perspective and I think he made a Tavares comparison.

 

[Kingpin794]

Seems that Perfetti scored more points in games he was a center, than when he was a winger. That's interesting. Just went through that game-by-game data and separated games where he had a lots of faceoffs of games where had just small amount of faceoffs. Less production and more assist-weighted stats on games with less faceoffs (potentially winger).

From what I can piece together from posted lineups via Joey Battaino (Spirit radio guy) and stats from those games:

Perfetti played 35 games at LW and 26 at C. Pre trade deadline he played LW 17 times and C 21 times. He was 1.706 PPG on the wing and 1.666 PPG at C. Post deadline after Saginaw acquired Ryan Suzuki, he played 18 games at LW and only 5 at C. He scored 2 PPG at wing and 1.8 at C. So he was slightly more productive at wing than center.

 

[Henkka]

From what I can piece together from posted lineups via Joey Battaino (Spirit radio guy) and stats from those games:

Perfetti played 35 games at LW and 26 at C. Pre trade deadline he played LW 17 times and C 21 times. He was 1.706 PPG on the wing and 1.666 PPG at C. Post deadline after Saginaw acquired Ryan Suzuki, he played 18 games at LW and only 5 at C. He scored 2 PPG at wing and 1.8 at C. So he was slightly more productive at wing than center.

Funny. I had almost the same game split. But production numbers were 1.96 as center (25 games 20+29) and 1.72 at wing (36 games, 17+45). Maybe the faceoffs don't tell the truth about position.

 

[Hen Kolland]

From what I can piece together from posted lineups via Joey Battaino (Spirit radio guy) and stats from those games:

Perfetti played 35 games at LW and 26 at C. Pre trade deadline he played LW 17 times and C 21 times. He was 1.706 PPG on the wing and 1.666 PPG at C. Post deadline after Saginaw acquired Ryan Suzuki, he played 18 games at LW and only 5 at C. He scored 2 PPG at wing and 1.8 at C. So he was slightly more productive at wing than center.

I think this is a logical relationship across the board. Playing center, production slows as his 200 foot responsibility takes away from being able to "cheat", for a lack of better term, for offense. Additionally, adding a high profile prospect like Suzuki, with his skill set and IQ on a line with Perfetti's skill set and IQ, to see his overall production jump to 1.95ish from 1.68ish based on the rates and games you provided...that just makes sense. I know Saginaw was a decent to good team this year, but by a lot of accounts, Perfetti was not playing with super smart players prior to the arrival of Suzuki.

I think he's the type of player who would be perfect to slot with Zadina, as both players appear to elevate their game when they can play off their linemates. Part of the reason I think Zadina is being done a disservice playing on a line with Helm or Glendening at various times. Zadina wants that rapport, the mental connection like Z and Datsyuk had. It's hard when you have a player who is tunnel visioned with the puck, or content to move it to the skilled player and crash the net hoping for a loose puck.

 

[Henkka]

McMullet's Final 2020 Rankings + New Ranking System

Nice player-by-player analyzes and ranking system, for general reading.

 

[Henkka]

I think this is a logical relationship across the board. Playing center, production slows as his 200 foot responsibility takes away from being able to "cheat", for a lack of better term, for offense.

And one of the flawed thinking is, when some people are comparing winger-stats straight to center stats, if winger has better production, that's the BPA.

This thinking is totally wrong, because centers lose some points thanks to that position. And defensively responsible center lose even more, but could help the team more, when preventing opposite points. Like Datsyuk was the best player for a decade, never the highest producer, but took so many points away from opposite team. His general relative impact ScoringFor/Against was the best.

 

[Kingpin794]

And one of the flawed thinking is, when some people are comparing winger-stats straight to center stats, if winger has better production, that's the BPA.

This thinking is totally wrong, because centers lose some points thanks to that position. And defensively responsible center lose even more, but could help the team more, when preventing opposite points. Like Datsyuk was the best player for a decade, never the highest producer, but took so many points away from opposite team. His general relative impact ScoringFor/Against was the best.

Exactly. Wish the OHL kept and made advanced stats available. just the raw numbers only give a section of the story.

 

[Henkka]

Exactly. Wish the OHL kept and made advanced stats available. just the raw numbers only give a section of the story.

Pick224 - Hockey Prospect Stats

This site doesn't have corsi, but at least there's that relative GF%, where Perfetti is best of these OHL Top guys who played a full season.

Raymond also excels on that stat vs. Holtz and Gunler, even though scoring less, so that could go hans-in-hand with the analyzes, how he's most complete and best defensively of the Swedes.

 

[lilidk]

Too small. He might surprise, but I'd rather not gamble on that.

if he still available late second id take him without hesitation

 

[Marky9er]

Exactly. Wish the OHL kept and made advanced stats available. just the raw numbers only give a section of the story.

I heard the CHL is changing their streaming partners to make their online viewing better and more affordable to reach more viewers, pretty essential if they want to have a season this fall. Who knows maybe it will encompass something like that.

 

[newfy]

I have real concerns about Perfetti's skating; it's a mess for a top prospect. I can't see many pro coaches being comfortable with him being a 1C considering his mediocre mobility and how it affects his defensive game. He could bust because of it. I'd much rather we steer clear of that, especially with Raymond, Rossi, Holtz or Drysdale on the board (although, not sure we need a RD). Plus he doesn't really mesh with the Yzerplan. He's probably the slowest, lowest energy/pace player of the top prospects.

"He wants a skilled, fast team with guys who can play with pace, who have a foundation of skill, skating and hockey sense. It doesn’t matter if you’re big or small, Russian, American, Swede. As long as you could play fast-paced, skilled hockey, you would be on our list and if you were the next guy on our list, we would pick you..." - Julien BriseBois on Yzerman

His skating isnt a mess for a top prospect. His skating is solid but not elite or anything. He lacks a little bit of acceleration for sure but if he had that right now we're talking about him ahead of guys like Byfield and Stutzle. Very few prospects are elite everywhere. If his skating was a mess he wouldnt have a chance at top 5.

When you talk about his skating being a mess but then suggest Rossi it makes me wonder how much youve watched them. If ROssi is a better skater, it isnt by much at alland thats with one in a mans body and the other with a 15 year olds. Go watch a shift by shift of his. He wouldnt be on the PK if he was a bad skater. He actually gets a bunch of Datsyuk like takeaways defensively as well.

 

[lilidk]

Yzerman going to shock ones again , he will get ,someone unexpected …….. Seth Jarvis, some prefer him over Perfetti , some over Raymond , but still mid teens

 

[Marky9er]

Yzerman going to shock ones again , he will get ,someone unexpected …….. Seth Jarvis, some prefer him over Perfetti , some over Raymond , but still mid teens

If he manages to trade down and get Askarov AND a Jarvis...that'd be pretty sick. I don't know if that's actually possible, NJ has a few 1sts Minnesota has 2, but believe those acquired picks might be tied up or deferred because of conditions.

 

[jkutswings]

McMullet's Final 2020 Rankings + New Ranking System

Nice player-by-player analyzes and ranking system, for general reading.

This encourages me about Raymond and Drysdale...while simultaneously infuriating me all over again about not landing in the top 3.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

If I’m Yzerman I’m intentionally giving out a false leak that we really like Drysdale with hopes that Ottawa wants him and doesn’t see perfetti or Rossi as a big step down from Byfield/Stutz, leading them to take Drysdale 3rd to get their guy and then a similar level forward at 5

 

[wingfan]

If I’m Yzerman I’m intentionally giving out a false leak that we really like Drysdale with hopes that Ottawa wants him and doesn’t see perfetti or Rossi as a big step down from Byfield/Stutz, leading them to take Drysdale 3rd to get their guy and then a similar level forward at 5

Someone always falls to 4-6 ranked in the top 3. Last year it was Byram falling to the Avs because Chicago went with Dach. The year before Tkachuk fell to Ottawa at 4 because Montreal went need and drafted Kotkaniemi. I have a feeling that one of Byfield or Stutzle, most likely Stutzle may just be available at 4. We'll see what happens.

 

[FabricDetails]

I'm liking all this Perfetti hype... Maybe one of the Top 3 will jump the gun and grab him that way we get Byfield/Stutzle. :-D

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Someone always falls to 4-6 ranked in the top 3. Last year it was Byram falling to the Avs because Chicago went with Dach. The year before Tkachuk fell to Ottawa at 4 because Montreal went need and drafted Kotkaniemi. I have a feeling that one of Byfield or Stutzle, most likely Stutzle may just be available at 4. We'll see what happens.

You’ll notice the reach is almost always for a center though

 

[jkutswings]

You’ll notice the reach is almost always for a center though

Then Yzerman should start leaking reports that Raymond, Holtz, and Perfetti might be tried out at center in the fall.

 

[wingfan]

You’ll notice the reach is almost always for a center though

It is, but maybe Ottawa ends up preferring someone like Perfetti or Rossi as a C over Stutzle as a C? Who knows. The draft never seems to play out the way we think it does. I think the consensus 3 will absolutely be gone but it's not like crazier things haven't happened.. Regardless of what happens at this point, barring one of the top 3 falling, I feel like Yzerman is going to go with Sanderson and an outside shot of Jarvis. The more tape I watch of Sanderson, the more I can see why he's flying up draft boards..