Who will score more?

[qc]

As critical of Tyler as I was, I do feel that he was wrongly pegged as a 1-dimensional player, or that he didn't "try" to adapt to the B's style.

I felt that- through his last two seasons- he made an honest effort to be more sound defensively, and he started to engage in puck battles along the boards more frequently. Now, I know that simply trying is not good enough, and he certainly wasn't worthy of praise for his progress in regards to the little things of his game, but he was trending in the right direction- opposed to the wrong one.

Just wanted to get that off my chest.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Can we substitute Krug for Eriksson?

I kid, I kid. Loui will be just fine...book it.

 

[Scotto74]

I'm unclear as to what you mean.

Out: Peverley and Seguin (two players - $9M)
In: Loui Eriksson, Matt Fraser, Reilly Smith and Joe Morrow (four players - $7M)
Two extra players and $2M in cash savings. Makes a HUGE difference.

I would argue that the only cap in amounts are Louie and Smith = 5.15m as they are on the roster and count against the cap.

the cap out is 9m

That is 3.85m in savings that helped to sign Iggy under the cap.

2 of those guys are in Providence.

My point was that they would have moved Pevs anyway, and that they could have freed up cap space by dealing Kelly as well. I'm also constantly told how valuable Kelly types are so I'm guessing we could have gotten a Matt Fraser and Reilly Smith for those two.

If they found a taker for Pevs you would have had to take something back. Remember Pev didn't have a good year last year and has a decent cap number. You would have had to trade for a similar player that had a down year that someone wanted to swap for most likely.

How you would have moved Kelly? Unless he wanted to move he was going nowhere. He has a full NTC.

You think Dallas would have traded Fraser and SMith for Kelly and Pev? I think they wanted Seguins potential not to older vets that are both at most 2nd liners and at the same time they would have taken on all the cap in that situation 6.25m and let go of 1-2m. Don't see that happining.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

2 of those guys are in Providence.

My point was that they would have moved Pevs anyway, and that they could have freed up cap space by dealing Kelly as well. I'm also constantly told how valuable Kelly types are so I'm guessing we could have gotten a Matt Fraser and Reilly Smith for those two.

Had to include them in overall depth.

Realistically only one of those two down in Providence has a realistic shot of getting some playing time in Boston this season. Morrow has a shot next year.

But part of the idea, is that Chiarelli doesn't have to scramble at/near the deadline this year to pick up players that don't fit here (Jagr) or players who suck (Daugavins) with no wiggle room JUST to fill out his roster.

Morrow is longer-term before the dividends pay. But Fraser/Smith were brought in to contribute (if nothing else, in THAT way) sooner.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

This is possible, but I'm not sold yet. This is a team that plays on the very edge of loss/defeat in 80% of the playoff series they play in. Eriksson's playoff resume to date isn't any better then Seguin's was when he left here (although it does have quite a bit more dust on it so who knows) and lord only knows what Smith will bring.

Say what you will about Seguin, but the kid was a creative part of this team for it's most successful playoff runs in recent history. He added a dynamic teams had to be aware of. He wasn't a key piece, but a piece all the same. Same can be said of Pevs, who played a rather large role in the Bruins cup win. We know Boston could win in the postseason with those players because they did.

Everyone is saying this makes Boston a better playoff team and I have to ask what makes you so sure? The last three seasons Boston had two lines that could pass as a #1 line. Now Boston seems to have 1, even with the BME line picking it up... if that doesn't improve it's hardly a given this team will be improved in the post season.

Jagr didn't fit with this team. And Seguin let us down. Chiarelli employed the Dogman and Jay Pandalfo. The back half of the season last year we saw a Bruins team scrambling to find their legs and their identity. The third line was a gong show. Seguin crapped the bed in the playoffs when we needed him the most and two of our four lines failed to click.

I'd say we have about a half dozen guys as of TODAY, who are better options that throwing Kaspars Daugavins in the fray. We have lines that haven't all been there YET, but seem to be coming along (we can revisit this conversation in six games and I bet our opinions on how the forwards are put together will likely be more or less the same).

The high end talent that we had in Seguin... We didn't have last year in Seguin. And on top of it all, we now have a defense that is mobile and can chip in offensively and they have an entire season to work out any "kinks" before the playoffs hit.

Injuries will ultimately decide... But I have no qualms with saying that YES. I know for sure we are in better shape this season than last. And that was with the cap going DOWN.

 

[Hali33]

I'm quite sure that Seguin and Peverley will score more in Dallas. I'd love to see Peverley have a bounce back season.
But I think Eriksson and Smith will improve this team more overall in terms of consistency. More importantly they allow this team to run 4 solid lines while being cap compliant which is something I don't think we would be able to accomplish had we not done the trade.

 

[EastCoastNiner]

Three zone play more valuable than mere points. Consistency over short bursts of offensive output.

Assuming that yes, they play in and around the same number of games.

What? I'm not sure what that has to do with what I said.

I was saying that goals are more valuable than assists. If two players combine for 120 points with a total of 25 goals, is that as impressive as two players that combined for 110 points and 60 goals? No, it's certainly not as impassive or impactful which was what I was getting at.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

What? I'm not sure what that has to do with what I said.

I was saying that goals are more valuable than assists. If two players combine for 120 points with a total of 25 goals, is that as impressive as two players that combined for 110 points and 60 goals? No, it's certainly not as impassive or impactful which was what I was getting at.

I'm saying that points are ONE measurement of effectiveness. Goals another. +/- another.

Watching each player on the ice and seeing how much they effect the flow of the game would be another thing to do. Ice time in critical situations. Overall team success.

I just chose points instead.

 

[EastCoastNiner]

I'm saying that points are ONE measurement of effectiveness. Goals another. +/- another.

Watching each player on the ice and seeing how much they effect the flow of the game would be another thing to do. Ice time in critical situations. Overall team success.

I just chose points instead.

I agree, and I understand what you were trying to say now.

I think it will be close this season, but we'll see. I have to say that Smith has impressed me so far, and Eriksson has been underwhelming offensively so far. That could be a good sign as Eriksson can only get better, but is Smith playing over his head now? I can't say as I never saw much of Smith before he was here.

 

[Kaoz*]

Jagr didn't fit with this team. And Seguin let us down. Chiarelli employed the Dogman and Jay Pandalfo. The back half of the season last year we saw a Bruins team scrambling to find their legs and their identity. The third line was a gong show. Seguin crapped the bed in the playoffs when we needed him the most and two of our four lines failed to click.

I'd say we have about a half dozen guys as of TODAY, who are better options that throwing Kaspars Daugavins in the fray. We have lines that haven't all been there YET, but seem to be coming along (we can revisit this conversation in six games and I bet our opinions on how the forwards are put together will likely be more or less the same).

The high end talent that we had in Seguin... We didn't have last year in Seguin. And on top of it all, we now have a defense that is mobile and can chip in offensively and they have an entire season to work out any "kinks" before the playoffs hit.

Injuries will ultimately decide... But I have no qualms with saying that YES. I know for sure we are in better shape this season than last. And that was with the cap going DOWN.

The new mobile D I'm loving, Krug and especially Hamilton who is quietly having a remarkable sophomore year imo overshadowed by Krugs incredible start. Krug started this play in the playoffs last year though, was perhaps even better, so not sure if I agree that it's a big plus for this years playoffs. Dougie for some reason stopped getting inserted into the lineup, thought the Bruins could have used him but it was hard to justify when he would likely be taking Krug out. So now with Ference gone Dougie gets the spot, and that's definitely a different dynamic. There are positives and negatives though, Ference brought a lot to the table.

As for Jagr, Pandolfo and Dogman, those were coaching/mgmt decisions. We could have seen Spooner, we could have seen Soderberg but the Bruins instead elected the safer choice which is something that more often then not they will do. We had to see Jagr with his zero goals on the 2nd line for the bulk of the playoffs even though the Bergeron line as formerly constituted was every bit as good if not better then the Krejci line for 2 seasons. Why it was never reunited is still beyond me, perhaps that Chicago series would have turned out differently if it had of been?

If Boston is looking for anyone come deadline or before, chances are they're looking for another one of those safe choices, and there is absolutely no reason to assume it will be the right choice unfortunately. At least we appear to have a powerplay this regular season though which is a nice change.

 

[11MilesPerJohan]

I chose Seguin and Pevs.

I was against trading Seguin an felt that he would still be a 70+ point player, but once some of the details came out about the "off-ice" issues, I understood why the Bruins did what they did.

That being said, I liked the return the Bruins got for Seguin. Will any of the players be as dynamic offensively as Seguin? No. But as a group, I think the players that came back in return have a chance to be solid contributors for the Bruins going forward, and in some cases, perhaps they will have a chance to be more than solid.

Like I have said before, I think Eriksson will show that he is the player we all thought/hoped he was when this trade happened. I think Seguin will have more points than him this year, but I think Loui will close the gap a bit as the season continues. Smith has been the pleasant surprise of the deal so far, and I think he can outscore Pevs. But ultimately, I think Seguin scoring at near or at a PPG pace will be the difference in point totals this year.

Ultimately, point totals are only one way to measure this deal. Part of the justification for trading Seguin and acquiring a player like Eriksson as the main piece coming back, was that Loui would fit this system better and probably give you a better chance to win right now. So let's see how far this team goes while Loui is here and how much he has to do with the success. If he performs in the playoffs and helps you win big games, then it will have been worth it, IMO.

I also want to see how Morrow develops, as I think he is still the wild card in this deal. If he fulfills his promise as a first-round pick, then the deal could look great from the Bruin's end.

 

[Killer B]

Barring injury, I think it should be the Segs & Pevs...

Dallas (and many of the western conf teams) just play such a wide open style of hockey with less defensive responsibility.

Heck didn't Ryder have 35 goals with them when he left Boston?

 

[qc]

Barring injury, I think it should be the Segs & Pevs...

Dallas (and many of the western conf teams) just play such a wide open style of hockey with less defensive responsibility.

Heck didn't Ryder have 35 goals with them when he left Boston?

The Stars pretty much hit the reset button at the end of last season. New GM, new coaching staff, new system. Lindy's trying to make them a more 3zone team. They're meh right now, but I don't see why folks (not you) think that TS will never taste the playoffs again in Dallas.

I'd say in 2 years, when Gonchar and Horcoff's dumb contracts are off the books and Whitney retires, Dallas may be in the mix for success.

 

[BNHL]

Judging Eriksson on offense alone is a lot less accurate than doing the same for Seguin. Seguin will probably outscore Bergeron and Krejci,is he better?

 

[ODAAT]

Maybe a better poll would be "who will score more playoff points?"

/Thread

 

[Bocephus86]

I would expect Smith and Pevs to have similar production and for Seguin to outproduce Eriksson so I took the Dallas guys.

Still like the deal by the way.

 

[Fossy21]

TOI/Game

Seguin = 19.18
Peverley = 17.51

Eriksson = 17.00
Smith = 13.54

Seguin gets 178.76 minutes more ice time than Eriksson per year
Peverley gets 325.54 minutes more ice time than Smith per year

Dallas players get 504.30 minutes more or 8.41 games

Based on current averages

Based on current averages, trusting your figures, Seguin will get 10 ½ more games than Loui (counting Loui's avg TOI), and Pevs will get 24 more games than Smith based on Reilly's avg TOI. That's substantial.

So obviously the two we traded will outscore the two we traded for, but they probably wouldn't have done it here (at least not by as much), and most likely wouldn't have played as good a game overall as our guys will - especially when comparing their performance to their cap hits and what we would've had to sacrifice to keep them.

 

[Killer B]

The Stars pretty much hit the reset button at the end of last season. New GM, new coaching staff, new system. Lindy's trying to make them a more 3zone team. They're meh right now, but I don't see why folks (not you) think that TS will never taste the playoffs again in Dallas.

I'd say in 2 years, when Gonchar and Horcoff's dumb contracts are off the books and Whitney retires, Dallas may be in the mix for success.

Oh I agree... Dallas has a pretty decent group of youngsters. Almost 11 mil tied up in Gonchar and Horcoff is insane. And with each being under contract for another year, I don't know if they can even flip them at the deadline for decent picks. If they can, they'll have almost 25 million to spend next off season (pretty decent free agent group next summer).


***edit: They would have 25 million to spend if the cap stays where it is, but most expect it to rise...

 

[Bruinswillwin77]

I don't get how anyone honestly voted in favor of our guys putting up more points. (Granted I did BY ACCIDENT lol) For real though. Seguin could end up putting more then Smith/Loui combined.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

The new mobile D I'm loving, Krug and especially Hamilton who is quietly having a remarkable sophomore year imo overshadowed by Krugs incredible start. Krug started this play in the playoffs last year though, was perhaps even better, so not sure if I agree that it's a big plus for this years playoffs. Dougie for some reason stopped getting inserted into the lineup, thought the Bruins could have used him but it was hard to justify when he would likely be taking Krug out. So now with Ference gone Dougie gets the spot, and that's definitely a different dynamic. There are positives and negatives though, Ference brought a lot to the table.

As for Jagr, Pandolfo and Dogman, those were coaching/mgmt decisions. We could have seen Spooner, we could have seen Soderberg but the Bruins instead elected the safer choice which is something that more often then not they will do. We had to see Jagr with his zero goals on the 2nd line for the bulk of the playoffs even though the Bergeron line as formerly constituted was every bit as good if not better then the Krejci line for 2 seasons. Why it was never reunited is still beyond me, perhaps that Chicago series would have turned out differently if it had of been?

If Boston is looking for anyone come deadline or before, chances are they're looking for another one of those safe choices, and there is absolutely no reason to assume it will be the right choice unfortunately. At least we appear to have a powerplay this regular season though which is a nice change.

My response to this takes the conversation into about a dozen different directions.

I will say that the options Chiarelli has THIS season FAR surpass what he had last. That there were reasons that Spooner and Soderberg didn't see time in the playoffs. And Seguin had played himself off that that second line and never played himself back into that position.

One place where we're just slightly lighter, is in goal. Instead of three quality goaltenders, we kinda only have two. But that's real nitpicky.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

I don't get how anyone honestly voted in favor of our guys putting up more points. (Granted I did BY ACCIDENT lol) For real though. Seguin could end up putting more then Smith/Loui combined.

The point was never that I thought our guys would score more. The point was that it would likely be close.

I think Smith will outscore Peverley. And Seguin will outscore Eriksson. In the end, it will be close.

My official position on the deal now that it is done and we kinda see what we have in a couple of these guys, is that I don't like it. But I understand it.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Before the season I would have said Seguin would have had 70-80 (likely being closer to 70) and Peverley would have 40-45. Thought Eriksson would be around 60 and Smith at about 30.

Now I'd guess Seguin will be high 70s, Peverley around the same as my guess of 40-45, Eriksson around 50, and Smith 40-45.

 

[LavioletteScores]

I feel like any trade can't be judged unless with a long-term view. For example, think about the two scenarios:

1. Eriksson is a 60 pt guy, puts up 11 in the playoffs
2. Smith is a 30-ish guy, puts up 4 pts in the playoffs.
3. Fraser is a bust
4. Morrow is a 3rd, 4th D-pair.

OR

Tyler Seguin becomes a perennial 90 pt. player
Peverley does respectfully well, puts up 30-ish pts during his contract, and leaves
Button becomes a good depth AHL'er

Now, think about each scenario (and I know, there can be plenty of permutations, but it is an example) and give ONE Stanley Cup to either or, and compare.

I say this because, to me, any trade of this kind is made with either a short term or long term goal of winning the Stanley Cup. If both teams do neither, then I say the above trade is fair. NOW, give a Stanley Cup to either or, and the perception shifts greatly. The mediocre numbers for Boston's players are paved over, while Tyler Seguin's numbers are meaningless in our eyes. Now, if Boston never wins one in the time of those players, and Seguin does with Dallas, then I say, even 7 years from now, Dallas wins the trade. But, really it is way too early to know.

 

[Sea Bass Neely]

Judging Eriksson on offense alone is a lot less accurate than doing the same for Seguin. Seguin will probably outscore Bergeron and Krejci,is he better?

^^This^^

 

[Sea Bass Neely]

I feel like any trade can't be judged unless with a long-term view. For example, think about the two scenarios:

1. Eriksson is a 60 pt guy, puts up 11 in the playoffs
2. Smith is a 30-ish guy, puts up 4 pts in the playoffs.
3. Fraser is a bust
4. Morrow is a 3rd, 4th D-pair.

What makes you so sure Matt Fraser is a bust??

We haven't even seen him play... and he is doing quite well in Providence. That being said, Fraser is still behind Ryan Spooner and Nick Johnson on the "call-up queue" to Boston.

He's still young. Just as you said, and much like Morrow (who IS a more highly-regarded prospect for his position), only time will tell exactly what we got in Fraser.

But for this year it doesn't matter anyhow. There is no spot for him, and clearly the B's coaching staff is happy with what they've seen from Reilly Smith, both in team practice and on the ice in games.

They even had Smitty playing on the 2nd line when Eriksson was out. I didn't see that one coming when the deal first went down... i didn't even know who Reilly Smith was, but as you said Smith has indeed been a pleasant surprise.

Almost like an extra bonus. I am not worried about Eriksson he will find his niche in Julien's system and i think he will impress people in more ways than just scoring. He already has in some ways, especially his PK skills.