Who will score more?

[Mr. Make-Believe]

...

Rich Peverley and Tyler Seguin right now are a combined 24 points in Dallas. Seguin has 16 points in 17 games and Peverley 8 in 16. I think it's fair to say that these players are more or less playing to the pace of their expectations.

Reilly Smith and Loui Eriksson have combined for 17 points in Boston. Smith has 11 points in 17 games, while Eriksson has 6 in 12. I think it's fair to say that Smith is more or less playing to the pace of his expectations, while Eriksson could feasibly improve on his start in Boston.

I start this poll and this thread for two reasons:

1) To frame the context of the trade in a different light. I have been iffy about it and stated as such, but I feel as though I'm starting to come around on it. Remember of course, that we still have Fraser (13 games, 11 goals) and Morrow (13 games, 10 points - high end defense prospect) playing in Providence. I feel as though the talk has devolved into the Eriksson/Seguin swap... Which is inaccurate and totally unfair.

2) To filter talk about the trade to one thread, to the extent that one can expect. Seems like whenever one wants to talk about Eriksson, they end up conversing about this deal. I don't expect it ALL to be concentrated here. But it would help cleaning up the other threads if we made an attempt to save our best for the most appropriate place.

So... What does everyone think?

Click to read more...

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

Maybe a better poll would be "who will score more playoff points?"

 

[qc]

Love MMB for declogging the Loui player discussion thread. Props to you, amigo.

I lean in favor of the trade, and my pro-Eriksson stance is well-established, but I just see TS scoring 75+ while Pevs scores 35+. Smith is still a mystery to me. Obv, he's not going to score at the current rate based on his current TOI avgs, so he should plateau a bit. On the other hand, if Loui or Iggy were injured for an extended period of time (knock on wood), then Smith's scoring output dramatically increases.

tl;dr - I think Seguin/Pevs will win the tag-team scoring title vs. Loui/Smith.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Maybe a better poll would be "who will score more playoff points?"

You say that I know in jest... But the truth is, I don't know what kinds of players Smtih and Eriksson are come post-season time. There is a chance that we are disappointed with them just like we were with Seguin.

But for right now, if we're getting similar production from our roster players that they are from theirs... Could this be interpreted as anything but a good sign?

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

If Smith can keep up the pace and produce 40-50 pts, this may be close, but I see Seguin scoring 70-85pts so he and Peverley should get the edge.

But that is not why that trade was made.

Dallas season should end after 82 games while we'll start our quest for another long playoffs push and see what Loui is going to give us when it counts. Seguin certainly didn't left him very big shoes to fill...

 

[Dellstrom]

Seguin and Peverley, and I expected that all along.

I can see Eriksson finishing with ~55 points. Really, not bad. His first year in a new system and he had a bad concussion early on. You can tell he's back to normal and up to speed, the whole Bergeron line is going to explode really soon like it did in 2011-12. Smith, I see him with 35-40, which is much more than probably anyone expected. Really pleasant surprise from someone who was supposedly a throw in.

I expect Seguin to stay pretty consistent at 70-80 points. He's the key offensive cog with Benn on that team, he's going to get plenty of ice time and opportunities. He wasn't here in Boston. Peverley is a good bet for 40-45 points, all depends on where the Stars put him. He's been flopped around a lot.

I was completely against trading Seguin, wasn't happy when we did, but I'm happy we traded him and Peverley for this. Helps us a now and Morrow helps us a lot later. This trade can't be evaluated (correctly, don't look at the main board) until after the playoffs. Will Seguin and the Stars even make the playoffs? What's the use being a PPG player on a team that's going nowhere? Eriksson and Smith are two players who really fit into our "built for the playoffs" identity. Both are gritty and grind it out, which really pays off during a 7 game series. I can see Eriksson in particular really thriving there. If the two of them disappoint, sure, maybe it wasn't the best move. But we don't know, and we have to wait until then.

But, in relation to the question, Seguin and Peverley, and I knew this would probably be the case when the trade went down.

 

[EastCoastNiner]

You say that I know in jest... But the truth is, I don't know what kinds of players Smtih and Eriksson are come post-season time. There is a chance that we are disappointed with them just like we were with Seguin.

But for right now, if we're getting similar production from our roster players that they are from theirs... Could this be interpreted as anything but a good sign?

Are we assuming all four players play roughly the same amount of games?

Also, it's tough to do a straight points comparison as goals are undoubtably more valuable than assists. Right now, Seguin and Peverley have more than double the amount of goals that Eriksson and Smith have. If we're going based solely on points, I can definitely see the two here in Boston coming out on top, but if we're to value goals more than assists (like people should), then I'd take the Dallas duo

 

[Kaoz*]

Seguin/Peverley should win this handily imo.

A couple things aside from this though, is Smith playing up to expectations or above them? I only ask because I wasn't expecting a 60 point forward this year in Reilly Smith, and that's the pace he's currently on.

I also don't think Seguin is fully settled in yet in Dallas. He's getting there and looking pretty good doing it but I expected at least a half season to adjust to the center position. I expected that even when he was here honestly if they were to move him to center.

 

[Bruinswillwin77]

Lol I use to laugh at people who say "meant to vote for (x) but accidentally voted for so and so.

I meant to vote Seguin/Peverley and I voted Smith/Eriksson by accident haha. >.<

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

If Smith can keep up the pace and produce 40-50 pts, this may be close, but I see Seguin scoring 70-85pts so he and Peverley should get the edge.

But that is not why that trade was made.

Dallas season should end after 82 games while we'll start our quest for another long playoffs push and see what Loui is going to give us when it counts. Seguin certainly didn't left him very big shoes to fill...

And see, I disagree. Seguin's disappointing playoff is why he was dealt.

The players we got back from Dallas are the reason we dealt him to the Stars.

The lack of options in our forward ranks were about to suffer even further when the reality hit that the Cap made it so someone else was going to have to go. Maybe even a couple of forwards on top of Horton. Leaving us with only rookie options.

Chiarelli chose the Stars and this deal in particular, so he could a) free up cap space and b) load up on depth at the same time. Helped the Bruins flesh out their lines and had enough left over to get Iggy into the fold.

 

[VanIsle]

TOI/Game

Seguin = 19.18
Peverley = 17.51

Eriksson = 17.00
Smith = 13.54

Seguin gets 178.76 minutes more ice time than Eriksson per year
Peverley gets 325.54 minutes more ice time than Smith per year

Dallas players get 504.30 minutes more or 8.41 games

Based on current averages

Plus Seguin gets 1st line minutes on not such a deep team, and I believe he is more skilled than Eriksson. Whereas Eriksson is on the 2nd line (for now) on a deeper team and does not get the minutes.

Therefor Seguin/Peverley will get more points based upon this assumption.

 

[Dellstrom]

Seguin/Peverley should win this handily imo.

A couple things aside from this though, is Smith playing up to expectations or above them? I only ask because I wasn't expecting a 60 point forward this year in Reilly Smith, and that's the pace he's currently on.

I also don't think Seguin is fully settled in yet in Dallas. He's getting there and looking pretty good doing it but I expected at least a half season to adjust to the center position. I expected that even when he was here honestly if they were to move him to center.

I didn't even expect Smith to make the team. Expected him to be a contender, but saw a FA/Caron/Fraser taking it.

Thought he would be a decent third liner when everything was said and done. Looks like he can be another one of our big role players. Can play on either the 2nd and be good, or be phenomenal on the 3rd.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Seguin/Peverley should win this handily imo.

A couple things aside from this though, is Smith playing up to expectations or above them? I only ask because I wasn't expecting a 60 point forward this year in Reilly Smith, and that's the pace he's currently on.

I also don't think Seguin is fully settled in yet in Dallas. He's getting there and looking pretty good doing it but I expected at least a half season to adjust to the center position. I expected that even when he was here honestly if they were to move him to center.

I think the expectation when Chiarelli made the deal, is that one or the other of Smith/Fraser was going to take over for Peverley's place/output. In and around 50 points (Smith is on pace for 53). I was skeptical that it would happen, but it appears to me that it's a real possibility.

Loui Eriksson should have been good for 65. Seguin for 80. Peverley for 50.

~15 points difference when the dust settles. Then the Bruins are in the playoffs in a better position than they were the year before.

 

[LSCII]

You say that I know in jest... But the truth is, I don't know what kinds of players Smtih and Eriksson are come post-season time. There is a chance that we are disappointed with them just like we were with Seguin.

But for right now, if we're getting similar production from our roster players that they are from theirs... Could this be interpreted as anything but a good sign?

This is exactly right. It's easy to act cocky and say things like who will score more in the playoffs, but at least we have a frame of reference for what Seguin/Peverley are come that time of the year. Loui and Smith are complete unknowns.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Are we assuming all four players play roughly the same amount of games?

Also, it's tough to do a straight points comparison as goals are undoubtably more valuable than assists. Right now, Seguin and Peverley have more than double the amount of goals that Eriksson and Smith have. If we're going based solely on points, I can definitely see the two here in Boston coming out on top, but if we're to value goals more than assists (like people should), then I'd take the Dallas duo

Three zone play more valuable than mere points. Consistency over short bursts of offensive output.

Assuming that yes, they play in and around the same number of games.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

And see, I disagree. Seguin's disappointing playoff is why he was dealt.

The players we got back from Dallas are the reason we dealt him to the Stars.

The lack of options in our forward ranks were about to suffer even further when the reality hit that the Cap made it so someone else was going to have to go. Maybe even a couple of forwards on top of Horton. Leaving us with only rookie options.

Chiarelli chose the Stars and this deal in particular, so he could a) free up cap space and b) load up on depth at the same time. Helped the Bruins flesh out their lines and had enough left over to get Iggy into the fold.

I agree with what you said which puzzled me you said that you are disagreeing with my post?

 

[Bruinswillwin77]

TOI/Game

Seguin = 19.18
Peverley = 17.51

Eriksson = 17.00
Smith = 13.54

Seguin gets 178.76 minutes more ice time than Eriksson per year
Peverley gets 325.54 minutes more ice time than Smith per year

Dallas players get 504.30 minutes more or 8.41 games

Based on current averages

Plus Seguin gets 1st line minutes on not such a deep team, and I believe he is more skilled than Eriksson. Whereas Eriksson is on the 2nd line (for now) on a deeper team and does not get the minutes.

Therefor Seguin/Peverley will get more points based upon this assumption.

Ok mista professa

 

[member 96824]

Maybe a better poll would be "who will score more playoff points?"

Rask.

If we make the playoffs playing like we have been, the answer to all questions will be "Rask."

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

I agree with what you said which puzzled me you said that you are disagreeing with my post?

I don't think the deal had anything to do with Loui Eriksson's post-season or what Chiarelli could have expected from him in the post-season. I think the deal had less to do with Eriksson's playoff record, than with Kaspars Daugavins.

It has to do with roster management and very little (to nothing) to do with one-for-one production from Seguin to someone else.

 

[MTaylorJ1]

I don't think the deal had anything to do with Loui Eriksson's post-season or what Chiarelli could have expected from him in the post-season. I think the deal had less to do with Eriksson's playoff record, than with Kaspars Daugavins.

It has to do with roster management and very little (to nothing) to do with one-for-one production from Seguin to someone else.

In terms of cap though:

What we have:
Eriksson 4.25
Kelly 3.0
Smith 0.9

Total 7
What we lost, but would have dealt anyway:
Peverley 3.25

What we dealt, but maybe could have kept:
Seguin 5.75

What we would have needed to bring up:
Spooner 0.75

So:

Eriksson-Kelly-Smith 8.15
Seguin-Spooner-___: 6.5

The question becomes. Could you have found a player to play the 3rd line RW for 1.65. (this is without going further into the LTIR or touching anywhere else on the roster).

Heck, Smith at the time might have been the 3rd best asset in the trade. Could you have dealt something to Dallas, just for Reilly Smith?

So I don't think it was entirely cap related. Personally, I think the answer was, they didn't like what they knew was going on behind the scenes, and weren't willing to chance risking another playoff run waiting for it.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

In terms of cap though:

What we have:
Eriksson 4.25
Kelly 3.0
Smith 0.9

Total 7
What we lost, but would have dealt anyway:
Peverley 3.25

What we dealt, but maybe could have kept:
Seguin 5.75

What we would have needed to bring up:
Spooner 0.75

So:

Eriksson-Kelly-Smith 8.15
Seguin-Spooner-___: 6.5

The question becomes. Could you have found a player to play the 3rd line RW for 1.65. (this is without going further into the LTIR or touching anywhere else on the roster).

Heck, Smith at the time might have been the 3rd best asset in the trade. Could you have dealt something to Dallas, just for Reilly Smith?

So I don't think it was entirely cap related. Personally, I think the answer was, they didn't like what they knew was going on behind the scenes, and weren't willing to chance risking another playoff run waiting for it.

I'm unclear as to what you mean.

Out: Peverley and Seguin (two players - $9M)
In: Loui Eriksson, Matt Fraser, Reilly Smith and Joe Morrow (four players - $7M)
Two extra players and $2M in cash savings. Makes a HUGE difference.

 

[Roll 4 Lines]

I've been to Dallas.

Tyler Seguin will score, big time!

 

[nycpunk1]

Do people really think the guys coming our way are going to match points with Seguin and Pevs in Dallas? That seems outrageous to me. The difference in TOI alone should make this a blowout.

Even if the systems in Boston and Dallas were interchangeable and everyone had the same TOI, I think a lot of the people bemoaning the trade are forgetting the money.

CAP HITS:

Seguin + Peverley = $9,000,000
Eriksson + Smith + Iginla* + Spooner + Paille = $9,010,000

Looking at it another way, the space we cleared by making this move is $350,000 more than Tuukka's raise.


* Yes, I realize throwing Iginla in there is a bit dishonest. Deal with it.

 

[MTaylorJ1]

I'm unclear as to what you mean.

Out: Peverley and Seguin (two players - $9M)
In: Loui Eriksson, Matt Fraser, Reilly Smith and Joe Morrow (four players - $7M)
Two extra players and $2M in cash savings. Makes a HUGE difference.

2 of those guys are in Providence.

My point was that they would have moved Pevs anyway, and that they could have freed up cap space by dealing Kelly as well. I'm also constantly told how valuable Kelly types are so I'm guessing we could have gotten a Matt Fraser and Reilly Smith for those two.

 

[Kaoz*]

I think the expectation when Chiarelli made the deal, is that one or the other of Smith/Fraser was going to take over for Peverley's place/output. In and around 50 points (Smith is on pace for 53). I was skeptical that it would happen, but it appears to me that it's a real possibility.

Loui Eriksson should have been good for 65. Seguin for 80. Peverley for 50.

~15 points difference when the dust settles. Then the Bruins are in the playoffs in a better position than they were the year before.

This is possible, but I'm not sold yet. This is a team that plays on the very edge of loss/defeat in 80% of the playoff series they play in. Eriksson's playoff resume to date isn't any better then Seguin's was when he left here (although it does have quite a bit more dust on it so who knows) and lord only knows what Smith will bring.

Say what you will about Seguin, but the kid was a creative part of this team for it's most successful playoff runs in recent history. He added a dynamic teams had to be aware of. He wasn't a key piece, but a piece all the same. Same can be said of Pevs, who played a rather large role in the Bruins cup win. We know Boston could win in the postseason with those players because they did.

Everyone is saying this makes Boston a better playoff team and I have to ask what makes you so sure? The last three seasons Boston had two lines that could pass as a #1 line. Now Boston seems to have 1, even with the BME line picking it up... if that doesn't improve it's hardly a given this team will be improved in the post season.