Who will McDavid surpass for best single peak regular season? Jagr vs Ovi vs Crosby vs Malkin

[nowhereman]

Right now, Mcdavid is playing more dominant hockey than Crosby, Malkin or OV ever did. He leads the league in goals and assists and has mindblowing advanced stats.

I guess if he scores 100 points In 56 game season, itll be up there with 07-08 OV for the best season in the 2000s. If he manages 140+ points over a 82 game season while maintaining his good defensively play, hell be a tier above.

All of Crosby, OV and Malkin have had just as dominant of stretches as McDavid and Crosby, in particular, is a more well-rounded defensive player. What McDavid is doing right now is incredibly impressive but let's not pretend we haven't seen it before. And I really want to reserve judgement until the guy is out of the Canadian division.

 

[Adamantoise]

Based on last year (other than McDrai), the next best Canadian players were Matthews at 9th in points and Connor/Scheifele at 15th.

Even though Ovi's 3 year peak all came in slightly lower scoring environments, I'm only including that as something to consider, not the be-all-end-all.

If you can't see the difference between an 82 GP normal season and a 56 GP season playing only the same 6 teams, then that's not my fault. No-ones doubting that he wouldn't still be first in points if this was a normal season, but it 100% makes it harder to try and compare it to normal seasons. Nothing insecure about that. The exact same arguments can be used for Crosby and Malkin (I just don't have enough time to deep dive into them as well).

The problem is that you said there is notihing to take from this season.

McDavids production can be assessed. Adjustments can be made. His season deserves credit.

Putting blinders on because there are unusual circuimstances and just discounting everything is baseless and insecure.

 

[Brucelenok]

He probably won't touch peak Ovechkin and Jagr IMO. What Ovy did through out 07-10 is simply unbelievable... Mind you it was through out the FULL seasons and he played with vs ALL Teams in the league when the game was more physical as well. Let's be honest McDavid benefits a lot playing in Canadian division this shortened season. I have to see him vs full season vs all other teams. In his previous seasons he hasn't touched none of them. He hasn't touched '95-01 Jagr either yet.

 

[Adamantoise]

He probably won't touch peak Ovechkin and Jagr IMO. What Ovy did through out 07-10 is simply unbelievable... Mind you it was through out the FULL seasons and he played with vs ALL Teams in the league when the game was more physical as well. Let's be honest McDavid benefits a lot playing in Canadian division this shortened season. I have to see him vs full season vs all other teams. In his previous seasons he hasn't touched none of them. He hasn't touched '95-01 Jagr either yet.

Hasnt touched them? Mcdavid has been the best player in the world for 5 years and has finished 1,1,1,2,2 in scoring in that timeframe.

None of those guys were more dominant.

 

[Midnight Judges]

A blindsided hit to the head, a random puck to the jaw and a misdiagnosed neck injury are directly tied to his attributes as a player?

Yes, absolutely. It goes to durability, the physical attributes of a player (which are inextricable from any discussion of athletes), as well as on-ice awareness (the Steckel hit was Crosby's fault - he wasn't looking where he was going and skated right into Steckel).

Crosby has lots of positive attributes. Durability isn't one of them. Durability is a virtue in all professional sports.

 

[Video Nasty]

Based on last year (other than McDrai), the next best Canadian players were Matthews at 9th in points and Connor/Scheifele at 15th.

Even though Ovi's 3 year peak all came in slightly lower scoring environments, I'm only including that as something to consider, not the be-all-end-all.

If you can't see the difference between an 82 GP normal season and a 56 GP season playing only the same 6 teams, then that's not my fault. No-ones doubting that he wouldn't still be first in points if this was a normal season, but it 100% makes it harder to try and compare it to normal seasons. Nothing insecure about that. The exact same arguments can be used for Crosby and Malkin (I just don't have enough time to deep dive into them as well).

But it's really not that hard. Look, I'm one of the first ones to mention how incomplete seasons (particularly when that player gets injured), pace, and all that nonsense are lame ways to prop up a player.

But as mentioned countless times, what is McDavid doing this season in these shorter division based confinements is so different than last season?

He had 20 goals and 57 points in 34 games under completely normal conditions. This year, he has 21 goals and 60 points in 34 games under unusual conditions. The two key differences this year before anything are he is at full health and he's shooting the puck more (108 shots up to this point and 134 so far this year). You could even say he's underperforming in a weird fashion, since the perception is that the division is completely horrible, yet he has virtually similar results.

This is the difference. We're not talking about a season from McDavid where he has 30 goals and 45 assists for 75 points and a 30 point lead over the closest non-teammate. We're talking about him having 1 goal and 3 point more through the same number of games.

I think it's unfair this narrative persists.

 

[filinski77]

The problem is that you said there is notihing to take from this season.

McDavids production can be assessed. Adjustments can be made. His season deserves credit.

Putting blinders on because there are unusual circuimstances and just discounting everything is baseless and insecure.

I said "this makes it impossible to pull any results from this". This does not mean that he does not deserve credit, or that there is "nothing to take from this season". He will likely win most of (or all) of the major trophies, and he will deserve them (but that's not what is being asked).

When I say "this makes it impossible to pull any results from this", I am referring to trying to compare production, and dominance over peers in a 2/3's length season against 6 teams vs. a full-season against the normal schedule of teams.

I'm not putting blinders on, but simply trying to add context to fans that are acting like what McDavid is doing is equal to as if he was doing the exact same thing in a normal year (which he isn't, and has not done in the past).

 

[Midnight Judges]

Hasnt touched them? Mcdavid has been the best player in the world for 5 years.

Actually he was the best player once, and maybe he can do it again this year.

Kucherov, Draisaitl, and others were legitimately better than McDavid in those other years.

 

[Adamantoise]

I said "this makes it impossible to pull any results from this". This does not mean that he does not deserve credit, or that there is "nothing to take from this season". He will likely win most of (or all) of the major trophies, and he will deserve them (but that's not what is being asked).

When I say "this makes it impossible to pull any results from this", I am referring to trying to compare production, and dominance over peers in a 2/3's length season against 6 teams vs. a full-season against the normal schedule of teams.

I'm not putting blinders on, but simply trying to add context to fans that are acting like what McDavid is doing is equal to as if he was doing the exact same thing in a normal year (which he isn't, and has not done in the past).

It isn't any more impossible to compare than to compare seasons from past eras that were shorter compared to modern ones.

In fact, its much easier. We have an enormous and clear sample size of how good these teams are defensively against the whole NHL and adjustments are easy to make.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

McDavid is the best player in the league and he'd win the ross in a "normal" season too, but this season doesn't mean anything. He is playing the same 6 teams over and over and it's only 56 games. The other 4 played the entire league and faced the 82 game grind. Anyone who doesn't understand the difference of 82 vs 56 games has probably never played sports at a high level or done any intense fitness training. It's way easier to do it for less time.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

As far as op.. He is well behind Jagr's 98/99, OV's 07/08 and Malkin's 11/12. He can beat Crosby, but that's because Crosby got injured so we didn't get to see his full peak season.

 

[Adamantoise]

Actually he was the best player once, and maybe he can do it again this year.

Kucherov, Draisaitl, and others were legitimately better than McDavid in those other years.

Who was better in 17 and 18?

 

[Adamantoise]

McDavid is the best player in the league and he'd win the ross in a "normal" season too, but this season doesn't mean anything. He is playing the same 6 teams over and over and it's only 56 games. The other 4 played the entire league and faced the 82 game grind. Anyone who doesn't understand the difference of 82 vs 56 games has probably never played sports at a high level or done any intense fitness training. It's way easier to do it for less time.

Why arent others doing it then?

 

[filinski77]

But it's really not that hard. Look, I'm one of the first ones to mention how incomplete seasons (particularly when that player gets injured), pace, and all that nonsense are lame ways to prop up a player.

But as mentioned countless times, what is McDavid doing this season in these shorter division based confinements is so different than last season?

He had 20 goals and 57 points in 34 games under completely normal conditions. This year, he has 21 goals and 60 points in 34 games under unusual conditions. The two key differences this year before anything are he is at full health and he's shooting the puck more (108 shots up to this point and 134 so far this year). You could even say he's underperforming in a weird fashion, since the perception is that the division is completely horrible, yet he has virtually similar results.

This is the difference. We're not talking about a season from McDavid where he has 30 goals and 45 assists for 75 points and a 30 point lead over the closest non-teammate. We're talking about him having 1 goal and 3 point more through the same number of games.

I think it's unfair this narrative persists.

I understand last year he was relatively close through 34 games (about 5% higher this year). The thing is that he levelled out from 1.68 to 1.52 points/gp by the end of the season. McDavid is taking advantage of the situation that is this season, and he deserves credit for that this year.

The whole point I am making is that his separation from his peers has increased significantly this season (at least so far in the season it has). And like I've said, there is no way to tell whether that is due to him progressing, or just the oddity of an intradivisional season. When you look at his point/gp above the next handful of guys from last year vs. this year, it's clear that this season he is doing things he never has before, which is why I am taking it with a grain of salt.

	Point/GP
McDavid	1.52
Panarin	1.38	10%
Pasta	1.36	12%
Mackinnon	1.35	13%
Malkin	1.35	13%
	Point/GP
McDavid	1.76
Drai	1.47	20%
Panarin	1.38	28%
Kane	1.35	30%
Stone	1.3	35%
Makinnon	1.25	41%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[filinski77]

It isn't any more impossible to compare than to compare seasons from past eras that were shorter compared to modern ones.

In fact, its much easier. We have an enormous and clear sample size of how good these teams are defensively against the whole NHL and adjustments are easy to make.

What are you talking about? Are you talking about 80 vs 82 game seasons?

I'm talking about comparing 82 game seasons where you play almost (or all) every team in the league vs. a 56 game season where you only play 25% of the league. Not nearly the same.

 

[Adamantoise]

What are you talking about? Are you talking about 80 vs 82 game seasons?

I'm talking about comparing 82 game seasons where you play almost (or all) every team in the league vs. a 56 game season where you only play 25% of the league. Not nearly the same.

There have been eras where seasons were only 50 or so games long.

The thing is that scoring in North division isnt particularly high and other players in North division arent scoring unusual numbers at all. A reasonable adjustment can be made for McDavids production, but some poeple are not interested in honest discussion.

 

[Adamantoise]

I understand last year he was relatively close through 34 games (about 5% higher this year). The thing is that he levelled out from 1.68 to 1.52 points/gp by the end of the season. McDavid is taking advantage of the situation that is this season, and he deserves credit for that this year.

The whole point I am making is that his separation from his peers has increased significantly this season (at least so far in the season it has). And like I've said, there is no way to tell whether that is due to him progressing, or just the oddity of an intradivisional season. When you look at his point/gp above the next handful of guys from last year vs. this year, it's clear that this season he is doing things he never has before, which is why I am taking it with a grain of salt.

	Point/GP
McDavid	1.52
Panarin	1.38	10%
Pasta	1.36	12%
Mackinnon	1.35	13%
Malkin	1.35	13%
	Point/GP
McDavid	1.76
Drai	1.47	20%
Panarin	1.38	28%
Kane	1.35	30%
Stone	1.3	35%
Makinnon	1.25	41%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

McDavid is playing by far the best hockey of his career. This is very apparent from watching him play.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Why arent others doing it then?

Maybe because, as I mentioned, he's the best player in the world? You are delusional if you think the division doesn't have anything to do with his numbers though. How else do you explain Ehlers, Toffoli, Connor and Boeser all in the top 10 goal scorers even though prior to this year they all combined for 1 top 10 goal finish in their entire careers? Did they all magically reach a new level? No. It's the crap division. McDavid is the best player in the world so obviously he is going to do things that others can't. The crap division just helps, that's all.

 

[Adamantoise]

Maybe because, as I mentioned, he's the best player in the world? You are delusional if you think the division doesn't have anything to do with his numbers though. How else do you explain Ehlers, Toffoli, Connor and Boeser all in the top 10 goal scorers even though prior to this year they all combined for 1 top 10 goal finish in their entire careers? Did they all magically reach a new level? No. It's the crap division. McDavid is the best player in the world so obviously he is going to do things that others can't. The crap division just helps, that's all.

Because the North division players have played more games. And early on in the season, there are bound to be players in the top 10 that usually arent.

5 of the top 20 p/gp players are from North division.

Whichever reasonable adjustment can be made (opponent GA, comparison to other North division scores), but the people screaming about north division never seem interested in that.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Who was better in 17 and 18?

Nobody was better in '17 - which is why McDavid won the Hart.

In '18 there were several players who could have won the Hart and McDavid wasn't clear cut better than the pack, but he did win a plurality of Pearson votes so obviously the case can be made for him.

 

[kmart]

65 goals and 112 points or if McDavid finished the season with a 50g and 145 point pace?

McDavid is more impressive

if u want to use pace arguments to beat a 65 goal season u can line up behind the crosby crowd, its wishful thinking on ur part. maybe mcdavid will beat the 08 season of ovi someday but not in a shortened covid season with pace/expected points.

the other thing is, due to the covid season, we are witnessing very odd results in the nhl because teams playing each other multiple times in a row - buffalo lies dead on the ground/never came out of the gates - flyers bending over and getting fisted/blow out every 3. game - canadian division with no defence pact... people will always nitpick on the covid factor. what i am trying to say is, u dont want to use the results of this season as some deep individual insight, its just not possible this year.

 

[Mickey Marner]

For more of an apples to apples comparison, here's 2013 Crosby through 36 games up until he was injured against top five, vs McDavid as of today against the top five.

Player	GP	G	A	P	PPG
Crosby	36	15	41	56	1.56
Stamkos	35	25	21	46	1.35
Kunitz	36	20	24	44	1.22
St. Louis	34	8	35	43	1.26
Kane	33	18	24	42	1.27

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

East average GPG, 5.46.
West average GPG, 5.15

Player	GP	G	A	P	PPG
McDavid	34	21	39	60	1.76
Draisaitl	34	18	32	50	1.47
Kane	34	13	33	46	1.35
Marner	33	12	29	41	1.24
Rantanen	32	19	20	39	1.22
Scheifele	33	13	26	39	1.18
Stone	30	12	27	39	1.30

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Central average GPG, 5.71
East average GPG, 5.73
North average GPG, 5.97
West average GPG, 5.65

 

[Calderon]

Not that McDavid's 58 points in 33 games wasn't amazing but Mikko Rantanen had 56 points in 33 games just two seasons ago. Granted, McDavid is far more reliable in keeping up high paces but still, small sample sizes do present chances to perform way better than one does in longer runs.

 

[Canovin]

if u want to use pace arguments to beat a 65 goal season u can line up behind the crosby crowd, its wishful thinking on ur part. maybe mcdavid will beat the 08 season of ovi someday but not in a shortened covid season with pace/expected points.

the other thing is, due to the covid season, we are witnessing very odd results in the nhl because teams playing each other multiple times in a row - buffalo lies dead on the ground/never came out of the gates - flyers bending over and getting fisted/blow out every 3. game - canadian division with no defence pact... people will always nitpick on the covid factor. what i am trying to say is, u dont want to use the results of this season as some deep individual insight, its just not possible this year.

It's reasonable to use pace when we're talking about a generational player who's been consistent thru out his career. It's fair to say he could maintain the pace. This is not Laine who's hot one time and cold the next.

Every division has 2-3 crappy teams. North has the Sens. West has the Kings, Sharks, Ducks. East has the Devils and Sabres. Central has the Red Wings. Why try and put an asterisk on it just to downplay an impressive season McDavid is having?

 

[Adamantoise]

Not that McDavid's 58 points in 33 games wasn't amazing but Mikko Rantanen had 56 points in 33 games just two seasons ago. Granted, McDavid is far more reliable in keeping up high paces but still, small sample sizes do present chances to perform way better than one does in longer runs.

Which is why I'd suggest everyone to look into McDavids underlying metrics. He's legitimately playing like a 140-150 point player without relying on puck luck, which is why I'm so bullish on his season lol. He wasnt half as good Last year.