Russia and Sweden are locks to make the QF from group A. Czechia and Switzerland should make it as well though Latvia has a chance to knock one of them out. Norway is trending downwards while Austria and Italy won't stand chance.
In group B I think USA looks the strongest followed by Canada. One could argue that Slovakia has a roster that's equally as strong as Finland's at this point, possibly stronger even. Slovakia has the 4th best defence on paper and Tatar and Panik are better than anyone Finland has up front.
However, Finland has the tradition and the coaching, and their players are well schooled. So they should rank as the third best team in group B going into the tournament. Germany can be dangerous in any single game due to Draisaitl and a fairly decent forward group overall. But they look horrible on defence and in goal. Greiss could join their team soon though. I can see both Slovakia and Germany making the QF's. Denmark can also be in the mix, especially if Andersen joins them. France has a weak team this year and they might risk relegation. Fight between them, GBR, Austria and Italy to stay in the top division.
To summarize, I think there's nine nations that can make it to the semifinals. The big six plus Switzerland are the usual suspects. Slovakia has an outside chance of winning a bronze on home ice, and Germany has an outside chance of making the semifinals. Key is to avoid Sweden and Russia in the quarters. Denmark and Latvia can make the quarters but won't make it further than that, making Slovakia and Germany the only potential "dark horses" in the tournament imo.