WC: Who will be a dark horse of this tournament?

[stastny12]

At some point we must make the semis, right?

You were really strong and dangerous last year. However, with all respect, I can't see your team make a QFs. Czechs and Swiss have a many great NHL players and always play smartly. No need to mention star rosters which send Russia and Sweden. So, I believe that your team could be better than in Denmark, although, Latvia does not have those players which can make a difference.

Totally trust them for 5th place in the group, though.

 

[Zippgunn]

Latvia had a very solid showing last year and the Swedes had a challenging QF last year, barely beating us 3-2. They went on to win the whole thing afterwards.

This year Latvia has an even better squad. A good goalie, good coaching and a disciplined, hard-working team.

At some point we must make the semis, right?

Hopefully Latvia gets as many of their good players as possible to attend, then they have a chance.

 

[Lepardi]

Finland on par with Slovakia, Germany and Denmark? How is that?

Finnish fans are obviously disappointed with the huge number of players declining. Finland was 6 to 1 to win this tournament a month ago, clearly ahead of USA and the Czech Republic, and now they're 14 to 1, clearly behind USA and slightly behind the Czech Republic. This leads into a senseless overreaction where some Finnish fans are now even posting stuff like "with this roster it would be a surprise if Finland makes it to the quartefinals".

Pay no mind to all this nonsense. This tournament is massive in Finland and fans are going to overreact when they see guys like Barkov and Kotkaniemi and even many KHL players decline, but in reality Finland is still ranked way above Slovakia, Germany and Denmark and heavily favored to make it to the playoffs.

Finland has an awful team. If Finland makes it to the quarter finals it'll be a miracle.

I wish I knew you in real life. I would gladly bet a few hundred euros on this. I'll certainly try to place a bet on this if one of my colleagues starts spewing this same hyperbolic nonsense.

 

[Retroglyphs]

[..] but in reality Finland is still ranked way above Slovakia, Germany and Denmark and heavily favored to make it to the playoffs.

we'll see, if that holds water.

 

[Namejs]

You were really strong and dangerous last year. However, with all respect, I can't see your team make a QFs. Czechs and Swiss have a many great NHL players and always play smartly. No need to mention star rosters which send Russia and Sweden. So, I believe that your team could be better than in Denmark, although, Latvia does not have those players which can make a difference.

Totally trust them for 5th place in the group, though.

What does that even mean? Which are the difference makers for Team Switzerland? Is Slovenia better because of Kopitar?

The Swiss don't exactly have a great roster this year. It's a 40/60 game vs. them. They have a couple more NHL guys and a little bit more depth, but that's it.

 

[Lepardi]

we'll see, if that holds water.

No, you don't have to wait. Just look at the odds and you see that Finland is ranked way above all of those countries right now:

Finland 14/1
Slovakia 30/1
Germany 55/1
Denmark 65/1

This doesn't mean Finland is going to finish above them, but if you genuinely believe Finland isn't any better than Germany and Denmark, you'd be stupid not to put your money where your mouth is. Finland will be playing both of those countries in the round-robin and will be the clear favorites in both games.

 

[Retroglyphs]

No, you don't have to wait. Just look at the odds and you see that Finland is ranked way above all of those countries right now:

AFAIK odds do not score goals and win matches at the WHC.

 

[Lepardi]

AFAIK odds do not score goals and win matches at the WHC.

If you are under the illusion you know hockey so much better than the betting market does, then you can obviously quit your dayjob. But you're probably not gonna do that, because deep down you know you don't actually know any better.

 

[Retroglyphs]

If you are under the illusion you know hockey so much better than the betting market does, then you can obviously quit your dayjob. But you're probably not gonna do that, because deep down you know you don't actually know any better.

You're exactly right, I have no interest in studying the excesses and pathologies of turbo-capitalism. I'm only there for the sport.

 

[Lambo]

No, you don't have to wait. Just look at the odds and you see that Finland is ranked way above all of those countries right now:

Finland 14/1
Slovakia 30/1
Germany 55/1
Denmark 65/1

This doesn't mean Finland is going to finish above them, but if you genuinely believe Finland isn't any better than Germany and Denmark, you'd be stupid not to put your money where your mouth is. Finland will be playing both of those countries in the round-robin and will be the clear favorites in both games.

But when Suomi loses the first 3 games(CAN,SVK,US) in regular times,could be the last match vs GER a "final". A very uncomfortable situation.

 

[Lepardi]

But when Suomi loses the first 3 games(CAN,SVK,US) in regular times,could be the last match vs GER a "final". A very uncomfortable situation.

Certainly not a comfortable situation, we can agree on that. It's also a fact that it's unlikely Finland will have zero points after facing Canada, Slovakia and USA.

Finland have seldom been such heavy underdogs at the WHC against USA as they will be this time around. The only time I can remember was in the quarterfinal in Cologne in 2017, when Finland were given about a 25-30 percent chance but ended up shutting down Eichel and Gaudreau and advancing to the semis with a score of 2-0.

 

[stastny12]

Which are the difference makers for Team Switzerland?

Huge additions are Nico Hischier, Kevin Fiala and Roman Josi. Those players can win the game themselves.

The Swiss don't exactly have a great roster this year. It's a 40/60 game vs. them. They have a couple more NHL guys and a little bit more depth, but that's it.

Maybe, they do not have, still so far better than latvian roster, though. Thats a fact. It would be really surprising if LAT will beat them.

 

[Lambo]

Certainly not a comfortable situation, we can agree on that. It's also a fact that it's unlikely Finland will have zero points after facing Canada, Slovakia and USA.

Finland have seldom been such heavy underdogs at the WHC against USA as they will be this time around. The only time I can remember was in the quarterfinal in Cologne in 2017, when Finland were given about a 25-30 percent chance but ended up shutting down Eichel and Gaudreau and advancing to the semis with a score of 2-0.

But now the weakest finnish team ever vs the strongest US-Team ever. I m not very optimistic.

 

[Lepardi]

But now the weakest finnish team ever vs the strongest US-Team ever. I m not very optimistic.

I'm not optimistic either about Finland's chances against USA. Luckily you don't have to beat USA to make it to the quarterfinals.

 

[Lambo]

I'm not optimistic either about Finland's chances against USA. Luckily you don't have to beat USA to make it to the quarterfinals.

Yes but it is a very difficult way. Germany,Slovakia and Denmark are very dangerous.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Finland.

 

[Elvs]

Russia and Sweden are locks to make the QF from group A. Czechia and Switzerland should make it as well though Latvia has a chance to knock one of them out. Norway is trending downwards while Austria and Italy won't stand chance.

In group B I think USA looks the strongest followed by Canada. One could argue that Slovakia has a roster that's equally as strong as Finland's at this point, possibly stronger even. Slovakia has the 4th best defence on paper and Tatar and Panik are better than anyone Finland has up front.

However, Finland has the tradition and the coaching, and their players are well schooled. So they should rank as the third best team in group B going into the tournament. Germany can be dangerous in any single game due to Draisaitl and a fairly decent forward group overall. But they look horrible on defence and in goal. Greiss could join their team soon though. I can see both Slovakia and Germany making the QF's. Denmark can also be in the mix, especially if Andersen joins them. France has a weak team this year and they might risk relegation. Fight between them, GBR, Austria and Italy to stay in the top division.

To summarize, I think there's nine nations that can make it to the semifinals. The big six plus Switzerland are the usual suspects. Slovakia has an outside chance of winning a bronze on home ice, and Germany has an outside chance of making the semifinals. Key is to avoid Sweden and Russia in the quarters. Denmark and Latvia can make the quarters but won't make it further than that, making Slovakia and Germany the only potential "dark horses" in the tournament imo.

 

[Retroglyphs]

@Elvs
Andersen isn't joining the Danes this year. They get Eller-Boedker (+/- Ehlers, +/- Björkstrand).
Other than that, an interesting perspective on the potential dark horses.

 

[BigBadBoar]

My dark horse: Germany. I don't say they will be champions, this would be an immerse shock obviously, I don't say that it is probable they will medal, but I would be not surprised if the make the semis.

 

[Lambo]

My dark horse: Germany. I don't say they will be champions, this would be an immerse shock obviously, I don't say that it is probable they will medal, but I would be not surprised if the make the semis.

I'd be surprised! This would mean that Germany would possibly eliminate Sweden or Russia in QF. That would be a miracle!

 

[Urbanskog]

I would say Germany. Both Germany and Slovakia have great teams this year but I feel like Slovakia rarely delivers when they are expected to. Germany is soon very likely going to receive some additional reinforcements in the form of Greiss and Kühnhackl, Slovakia might receive some as well in case Boston is eliminated. It is safe to say that the game between Germany and Slovakia is going to be extremely important for both teams.

 

[BigBadBoar]

I'd be surprised! This would mean that Germany would possibly eliminate Sweden or Russia in QF. That would be a miracle!

Why just Sweden or Russia? I don't dare to predict the results of the group stage in such detail.

 

[stastny12]

feel like Slovakia rarely delivers when they are expected to

Unfortunately, this is so, so true

 

[Retroglyphs]

I'd be surprised! This would mean that Germany would possibly eliminate Sweden or Russia in QF. That would be a miracle!

I can't see this happening with our defense. Reaching the QFs would be just okay.

 

[Lambo]

I can't see this happening with our defense. Reaching the QFs would be just okay.

Yes this is the reason why i would surprised. I would be a miracle!