News Article: Who tracks the game for us like Dubas does now for Leafs?

[Ohhh Franco]

Our Dubas is Travis Yost - duh.

 

[HSF]

teams are generally way ahead of what fans think imo.

I agree that advanced stats have limitations that people exploit on these boards.


Yost pretty much forms his opinion on players using advanced stats alone and what other people say which is why i don't bother with his opinion.

 

[Cynick]

"Advanced stats" is so overrated it's unbelievable.

At least with baseball it's hitter against pitcher and you can kind of justify it but even in baseball...

Advanced statistics are one part of the whole picture. Using them and them alone would likely lead to a poor decision but in the context of all other information can only be seen as a positive.

I'm of the mindset that there should be someone employed to focus primarily on this so as to add to all the other existing information when it comes time to making trades, scouting and drafting, signing free agents, and making all other roster changes. It's just a piece of the puzzle and they're needed.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Oh, I understand statistics very well and I understand their use, limitations.

If your go-to strategy to find players, build a team is basically HockeySabreMetrics - you're in trouble.

Statistical work can complement scouts, interviews (if possible) with the player and other things but the weight put on the stats in particular in recent years is wrong... in my opinion.

The movie Moneyball was fun but you have to remember the Oakland As didn't run Sabremetrics to an extreme like the movie would have you believe.

Edit: And apparently it won't let me edit to Sabremetrics. Lame. Edit2: REALLY? Sabre metrics. Edit3: for ****s sake e and THEN r

Oh i agree completely, i personally have not seen any prominent advanced stat supporter go on record and claim they are the end all and be all. What i have seen is these supporters endorse using these stats along with other more established tools for player evaluation.

To be honest the idea i had bolded seemed to be drummed up by those that did not support advanced stats in the first place as sort of a deflection tactic imo.

 

[Lehner]

I know for a fact that the team tracks advanced statistics internally but doesn't really communicate them for fear of alienating casual fans. No idea WHO tracks them, but they definitely are monitored.

If thats true, why do we always seem to re-sign the guys that have terrible advanced stats?

And let go of Da Costa?

 

[Quo]

If thats true, why do we always seem to re-sign the guys that have terrible advanced stats?

And let go of Da Costa?

Just because they track it wouldn't necessarily mean that they are beholden to it above all else.

 

[Mr Invidious]

If thats true, why do we always seem to re-sign the guys that have terrible advanced stats?

And let go of Da Costa?

This is the problem: advanced stats are valuable... but not everything.

There's a lot of people who think it's either one or the other. Advanced stats are a tool in a larger toolbox.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Who cares. I buy what Mackenzie says. Team know their analytics. Corsi is something so simple I doubt teams haven't moved past that.

 

[HSF]

If thats true, why do we always seem to re-sign the guys that have terrible advanced stats?

And let go of Da Costa?

You mean like Clarkson?

 

[Senscore]

The movie Moneyball was fun but you have to remember the Oakland As didn't run Sabremetrics to an extreme like the movie would have you believe.

The odd thing about that movie that most people don't seem to realize is that the greatest moments of the A's efforts are the statistical anomalies. The winning streak, capped off with Hatteberg's walk off homer was something that was the true antithesis of the Sabremetrics movement. An incredible event that could not and should not have been accounted for.

But it's those impossible moments which are burned into the brains of sports fans for years to come.

ANYWAY, back to hockey, a good number of the league's top teams have staff whose job it is to look at these numbers and provide advice and analysis when needed. We should at least be seeking to emulate that if only because championship teams are doing it.

 

[Knave]

You mean like Clarkson?

The puck possession numbers though, bro!

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Just like Tim in Buffalo. Taking over the division one team at a time, soon all the prospects will be ours.

...and Boston.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

One of the assistance coaches does the advanced hidden stats for the goalies and gives them directly to macclean

 

[DrEasy]

The thing is that hockey's such a dynamic game compared to baseball that there's usually too much noise and variation in the usual metrics to be able to see anything. BUT the moment some statistically significant correlation is found you wouldn't want your team to be the last one to find out.

Speaking of correlation (a very loose and bad one admittedly here): wasn't Epstein 28 when he was hired as the GM of the Red Sox? Then what happened to the Red Sox?

 

[18Hossa]

Arent we implementig a whole bunch of new cameras that track players, etc? Would that not help to track some forms of advanced stats?

 

[Hammertyme]

New stat the "Spezzwick". A combination of how many times you pass the puck to the other team, are outside the defensive blueline when the opposition scores divided by your plus/minus.

 

[StefanW]

Arent we implementig a whole bunch of new cameras that track players, etc? Would that not help to track some forms of advanced stats?

That tech is being piloted, and will be league wide within a few years. It will definitely revolutionize the types of stats that are collected. E.g. Corsi etc are a proxy for possession, but with full cameras and tracking technology it is theoretically possible to measure actual possession accurately. It will also do puck speed, player speed, and stuff like that.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yost, Mickelbot, Seurves, Trent etc... these guys are doin it for free bruv.

Sens are better off hiring someone to read HFboards than to do the actual work Imagine if they tracked my prospect optimism, LOL.

 

[Ice-Tray]

As per the sens model they have had a guy doing this for years, Yost! I mean why pay for those things when you can get it for free, cost per point etc...half joking here.

Seriously though i hope the team has been into this for ahwile now as it was failry clear to most critical thinkers when hockey advanced stats first came to light that there was certainly something relevant and useful there. Another tool to add to the arsenal so to speak.

You add weapons to an arsenal... Tools go in the toolbox...

 

[operasen]

Article on Dallas and Jim Nill building with advanced stats. Wonder where Jason fit into that.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/da...why-he-wants-better-technology-in-the-nhl.ece

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Article on Dallas and Jim Nill building with advanced stats. Wonder where Jason fit into that.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/da...why-he-wants-better-technology-in-the-nhl.ece

Considering what they gave up for spezza i'd take that gamble 100 percent of the time even if spezza stats and advanced stats were meh last season

 

[dumbdick]

I've been studying data science...I think there's some potential to employ some really advanced stuff. Not just this corsi stuff.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

That tech is being piloted, and will be league wide within a few years. It will definitely revolutionize the types of stats that are collected. E.g. Corsi etc are a proxy for possession, but with full cameras and tracking technology it is theoretically possible to measure actual possession accurately. It will also do puck speed, player speed, and stuff like that.

This would certainly make me start to believe in advanced stats as a useful tool.

I'm not buying what is currently out there, but admittedly I haven't really looked at the data behind it.

Can anyone provide a link (or links) to the best site to justify the advanced stats? Note that I'm not looking for an explanation of what they are -- I think I know that already -- I'm looking for the statistical analysis that proves they are valid predictors of individual and/or team success.

 

[Kellogs]

This would certainly make me start to believe in advanced stats as a useful tool.

I'm not buying what is currently out there, but admittedly I haven't really looked at the data behind it.

Can anyone provide a link (or links) to the best site to justify the advanced stats? Note that I'm not looking for an explanation of what they are -- I think I know that already -- I'm looking for the statistical analysis that proves they are valid predictors of individual and/or team success.

The problem is, when most people on this message board refer to "advanced" stats, they're usually talking about Corsi or Fenwick. You can just google "correlation between Corsi (or Fenwick) and winning percentage" and you'll get a number of analyses outlining how both these metrics are effective (or not effective depending on the opinion of the author). There are other advanced stats that teams track that go beyond those two, and it's known that teams like the Blackhawks have developed their own, so it wouldn't make sense to completely dismiss "advanced" stats or teams that are using them because we generally have no idea what sort of data they have, what sort of metrics they've developed and how well these correlate to winning.

What the new technology they plan on rolling out within the next few years provides, is an opportunity to get even better and more reliable data compared to the tools we have currently.

 

[Micklebot]

The problem is, when most people on this message board refer to "advanced" stats, they're usually talking about Corsi or Fenwick. You can just google "correlation between Corsi (or Fenwick) and winning percentage" and you'll get a number of analyses outlining how both these metrics are effective (or not effective depending on the opinion of the author). There are other advanced stats that teams track that go beyond those two, and it's known that teams like the Blackhawks have developed their own, so it wouldn't make sense to completely dismiss "advanced" stats or teams that are using them because we generally have no idea what sort of data they have, what sort of metrics they've developed and how well these correlate to winning.

What the new technology they plan on rolling out within the next few years provides, is an opportunity to get even better and more reliable data compared to the tools we have currently.

This is a big issue with adv stats currently imo. The NHL's real time stats data is notoriously bad, and even some of the simpler stuff on the various advanced stats sites isn't consistant.

For example, Toews GA at 5v5 in 2014 on the three maj sites:

Extraskater: 2.4 GA/60, 3.5 GF/60
BTN:2.44 GA/60, 3.69 GF/60
Stats.Hockeyanalysis: 2.45 GA/60, 3.52 GF/60

Part of the problem is they can't even agree on TOI;

BTN has Toews at 15.21 TOI/60
HockeyAnalysis only lists total TOI at 1124:11
ExtraSkater has Toews at 14.60/60 (which is close to 1124:11 divided by the number of games played, 76 but that would have given 14.80/60)