Speculation: Who sits when Z is back?

[Frk It]

Why Glendening? He started to be an important part of our PK, being on 3 of the 5 most frequent PK units this season.

But still i agree, I'm afraid it would be Jurco who's seated.

You could make just as much of a case for any of the guys in the poll.

 

[RedWingzz]

We have a lot of work to do before Z gets back, but if we manage to stay afloat without him, then it has to be Jurco that comes out. I love Jurco's game, and I believe he will be a dominant player in this league, in a year or 2, but at the moment he's who would have to come out. Miller plays his role perfectly, Glen does as well and Babcock loves him, Abdelkader isn't gonna be scratched. I also really don't see us scratching Legwand.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Jurco most likely.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Honestly I don't even understand picking a person now. This is not the regular season where a guy has time to warm up and learn from his mistakes. Every game matters. We need whatever players are better RIGHT NOW. If Jurco is the team's weakest link when we have 13 forwards, of course we should drop him. If Jurco has 4 goals and is +8, and Abby is ******** the bed with -3 and no points, then of course we should drop Abby.

I mean I'm all for pointless speculation in most situations, I know it's all in good fun. It's just that in this particular situation I feel it makes even less sense, because the goal is to win every game we can. It's do or die.

 

[PigPen]

It's going to be jurco and that's the saddest thing to me.

Abdelkader is big, but not physically dominant or even that assertive this year. I was expecting 35-40 points out of him this year and lots of driving the net but got more of the same. He's not effective on the pp and not spectacular on the pk. Very blah all around.

Miller is a poor man's maltby. Good on the pk but just seems to be missing that single elite skill that turns your run of the mill 3rd/4th liner into one of the premiere role players in the league. (Draper, speed. Pahlsson, defensive smarts. Malhotra, faceoffs.)

Glendening doesn't have an ounce of quit in him, but I'm also wondering if he's got even an ounce of talent. He is a 13th forward at best. I would rather have this spot open to a rookie grinder like Callahan who has showed way more abilities as an agitator and superior ability in the offensive zone than Glendening.

With these three guys you have to play a grinding game, and as none are elite grinders (which Boston has) then we're gonna have a bad time.

Jurco's speed, strength and skill will be way more useful than any of these 3 in a series than the bruins. Jurco's talents could help keep it from becoming a grind fest, or at the least pull away from it when the opportunity to do more is there.

 

[ap3x]

You could make just as much of a case for any of the guys in the poll.

Sure you could. Just seeing it out of the perspective that our PK could make the difference against the Bruins.
But as there are many views on "making the difference", no one owns the exclusive privilege to be completely "right".

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

People are saying Jurco because of seniority, but based on Babcock's usage of them... I could totally see it being Legwand. The guy's playing on the 4th line right now. His icetime's steady decline has made me think that Babcock will not really want him back.

 

[Flowah]

People are saying Jurco because of seniority, but based on Babcock's usage of them... I could totally see it being Legwand. The guy's playing on the 4th line right now. His icetime's steady decline has made me think that Babcock will not really want him back.

Isn't he also quoted as saying Legwand is basically the reason we were able to make the playoffs? Or at least that we couldn't have done it without him.

 

[YostisHome]

Should be Glenny, will be Jurco.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Isn't he also quoted as saying Legwand is basically the reason we were able to make the playoffs? Or at least that we couldn't have done it without him.

I think that was Holland, but I might be wrong.

Even if Babcock did, it doesn't do much to explain why Legwand's on the 4th line now. That's a pretty tiny role for a guy making 5 mil. It seems to me that Babcock has decided that Legwand isn't going to be much of an offensive contributor here, so he's maximizing his defensive value.

I think Miller is too valuable to the PK to sit. Glendening has a high realgud factor, so he seems unlikely to sit (although switched to wing, probably). Legwand has only a medium realgud factor, though, and Babs is cutting his icetime.

Of course, I could also see Glendening out in favor of Legwand. Babs would have to grit his teeth.

I don't really think they'd put Jurco out of the lineup, because he's got such speed and size, and they know they're lacking in comparison to the Bruins. Plus, this is a management group that is terrified of being too small. They talk size all the time, no matter what the actual topic is. It's always "we'd like to get bigger."

Granted, I wouldn't be surprised if there's some rotation, and all 3 of these guys spend games out.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

People are saying Jurco because of seniority, but based on Babcock's usage of them... I could totally see it being Legwand. The guy's playing on the 4th line right now. His icetime's steady decline has made me think that Babcock will not really want him back.

It'll be Jurco, The odds of Jurco being up with the Wings next season is very small. He will most likely start out in Grand Rapids especially if we resign both Alfredsson and Legwand. There wouldn't be a spot for him.

 

[Heaton]

Should be Glenny, will be Jurco.

I disagree, Glendenning is too important to sit right now. It should be Legwand and most likely will be Legwand.

 

[Flowah]

I think that was Holland, but I might be wrong.

Even if Babcock did, it doesn't do much to explain why Legwand's on the 4th line now. That's a pretty tiny role for a guy making 5 mil. It seems to me that Babcock has decided that Legwand isn't going to be much of an offensive contributor here, so he's maximizing his defensive value.

I mean, it's just obvious Legwand is not taking Datsyuk's spot. Period. No matter what. And only a complete idiot would break up the Kid line. Sheahan is performing excellently and there's absolutely no reason to ruin that chemistry. So that just automatically puts Legwand as a bottom6 guy. Legwand's not been too terrible. I don't see the 4th line so much as a demotion as it is that there's nowhere else to put the dude and it makes for a very effective shutdown line.

I do cringe at the thought of a guy (Jurco) outproducing Abby and Legwand being sat. He's fast, hits, scores. What more could you want from a 2-3 tweener?

If anyone sits I think it'll be Jurco just because of the things you mentioned. Babs loves Glendening and it's not like he's been bad. Miller is a stalwart and solidifying presence on that 4th line and PK. Legwand is a solid and proven veteran center on a team full of kids. No one else is in danger of being sat. Alfie is not going to sit. Abby is not going to sit. Helm is not going to sit. The choice is between Jurco/Glendening/Miller/Legwand. And I think it's Jurco. Even though he's outproducing all of them, he's not doing it at enough of a pace to overcome the various realgud factors.

I disagree, Glendenning is too important to sit right now. It should be Legwand and most likely will be Legwand

I'm going to laugh and cry if we sit Legwand. Laugh because yes it's probably the right call. But cry because damn, we traded Jarnkrok and a 2nd for this dude and if we're not even going to play him in the playoffs, is he anything more than a very very very very temporary rental? He was basically here to get us into the playoffs and nothing more? That would be just so sad.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

It needs to be repeated: When Legwand was brought in, Andersson was playing 1st line center. Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Helm were all out. Once players started coming back his role was going to be reduced. I still believe we have the ability to role 3 scoring lines and 1 grinding/defensive line with Z in the lineup (Datsyuk/Sheahan/Legwand/Helm down the middle).

This offseason is going to be very interesting in regards to Legwand and Weiss.

 

[Mantha Poodoo]

Despite having the highest quality of competition among our pure shutdown forwards (and 7th among all of our forwards in Corsi Relative QoC),, and one of the lowest quality of teammates on the team (3rd lowest among active forwards), Glendening has the lowest GA/60 among active forwards on our team. He may be a black hole of offense, but that apparently applies both ways. Glendening also draws a decent amount of penalties for his role, while keeping his own penalties taken relatively low for his role.

Meanwhile, Jurco has a very similar offensive impact (albeit in a 3rd scoring line role/lower QoT) to Alfredsson. His possession numbers are among the best on the team (4th), and his penalties drawn per 60 minutes are 2nd best on the team behind Pavel GD Datsyuk. The main knock against him is his defensive play at the moment, but part of that can be attributed to playing a very heavy scoring role.

The real answer to this should be Miller, who given that he will be playing almost exclusively a bottom line grinder role, is inferior to the other options for this, and doesn't contribute a lot to a scoring role either. There are better PKers, better 3rd line scorers and better 4th line grinders at this point. That said, he's an excellent guy to have around as the #13/first substitute forward.

Ideal lines could look like:

Dats - Z - Franzen
Nyquist - Sheahan - Tatar
Jurco - Helm - Alfredsson
Abdelkader - Glendening - Legwand

Or similar. Or you can run really thick down the middle and go:

Franzen - Z - Alfredsson
Abdelkader - Dats - Jurco
Nyquist - Sheahan - Tatar
Helm - Glendening - Legwand

By the way, Miller isn't that huge of a loss on the PK either. He's not bad, solid enough in fact, but his biggest impact is that if someone gets injured blocking a shot, the least impact to the team would be if it is him. In fact, even Cleary has better numbers on the PK this year, and their possession and GA/60 numbers in a 4th line role are pretty close. He's still a superior option to Andersson, though.

 

[Flowah]

What are the numbers that show Glendening>Miller for PK/Shutdown? GA/60?

I don't know the numbers, but I do know that I can see Miller making several great offensive plays in the past few weeks. Like that forecheck he had and the turnover he forced to feed the puck to Legwand for a goal. That on top of his solid defensive play. So what's better, a complete black hole of offense for both sides? Or a solid defensive guy who also doesn't kill your own offense?

I guess I'd also just want some kind of statistical confirmation that Glendening is noticeably superior to Miller defensively.

 

[Mantha Poodoo]

What are the numbers that show Glendening>Miller for PK/Shutdown? GA/60?

I don't know the numbers, but I do know that I can see Miller making several great offensive plays in the past few weeks. Like that forecheck he had and the turnover he forced to feed the puck to Legwand for a goal. That on top of his solid defensive play. So what's better, a complete black hole of offense for both sides? Or a solid defensive guy who also doesn't kill your own offense?

I guess I'd also just want some kind of statistical confirmation that Glendening is noticeably superior to Miller defensively.

Sure, give me a little and I'll do a bit more of a breakdown of the numbers for Glendening vs Miller. And again, I'm not saying Miller is bad. Miller is a great 4th line guy and could probably even be a substitute 3rd line guy on some of the weaker teams in the league right now. We just have enough 2-way play/defensive forward depth on this team that he's the biggest spare part, and what with many of our top offensive players being injured/coming back from injury, we do not need to sacrifice offensive depth from Jurco.

Numbers post coming in shortly.

 

[Shaman464]

It should be Abdelkader, why?

In the playoffs he takes so many stupid penalties. Need proof? In the regular season he a penalty once every 3 games. In the playoffs he averages almost a penalty per game. And it's not like they are the 'he saved a goal and took a penalty' types either. They are 'why the hell would you hold a guy in the neutral zone who is 30 feet from the puck' type penalties.

 

[Tomas W]

Don't know why Abby gets so much flack around here, I think he is pretty good and brings energy to the team. Not every game, sometimes he is awful, but nobody on the team are great every game.

 

[kdfsjljklgjfg]

It should be Abdelkader, why?

In the playoffs he takes so many stupid penalties. Need proof? In the regular season he a penalty once every 3 games. In the playoffs he averages almost a penalty per game. And it's not like they are the 'he saved a goal and took a penalty' types either. They are 'why the hell would you hold a guy in the neutral zone who is 30 feet from the puck' type penalties.

I seem to recall that around 2 years ago, he had a tendency to do this primarily in the last 3-4 minutes, too.

 

[Run the Jewels]

The fact that we're talking about Legwand being on the 4th line or benched, when healthy, just pisses me off.

Kenneh!

 

[Mantha Poodoo]

Glendening vs Miller, now with more numbers!

First off, quality of competition. Even strength first.

Time-weighted QoC of opposing d-men:

Miller: 32%
Glendending: 32.2%

Forwards

Miller: 24.8%
Glendending: 25.6%

Corsi QoC

Miller: -1.087
Glendening: -0.765

Corsi Rel QoC (A much better measurement than the above)
Note: my reference took a crap in the middle of this XD
Miller: ~0.05 or so
Glendening: ~0.66 or so

Now quality of teammates

QoT/F
Miller 22.5%
Glendending 22.7%

QoT/D
Miller 32.2%
Glendening 32.6%

Most common teammates:

Glendending: Miller 55.9% | Eaves 34.4% Cleary 28.4% | Quincey 44.7% | Smith 34.0%

Miller:Andersson 40.5% | Glendening 36.2% | Tatar 17.1% | Quincey 39.2% |Kindl 28.4%

ES GA/60:

Glendening: 2.01
Miller: ~2.4

SH GA/60:

Glendening: 6.23
Miller: 6.73


I apologize, I was going to list some more info as well as a bit more of analysis, but one of my usual main sources is down (and I'm at work, and our computers here don't get along with some sites sometimes).

I do want to point out that Glendening draws more penalties per 60 minutes. Miller on the other hand generates more offense than Glendening, but so does a bat loose in the arena. Miller's possession numbers are also better by a bit. Defensively, Glendening is way better at shadowing key players.

I think a significantly lower GA/60, while having a way higher Corsi Rel QoC, similar QoT, and similar linemates to Miller says all it needs to about Glendening vs Miller defensively. And while Miller is better offensively than Glendening, I'd rather lose Miller's offense on the 4th line than Jurco's offense in the top 9.

 

[Flowah]

Looks like a dead heat in most respects other than GA/60. I suppose it's just about preferences. A little offense with your shutdown guys vs none at all and slightly better defense.

I don't think it matters too much. I probably go with Miller staying just because I do put a premium on offensive depth. Goals are so huge in this sport. Anything that generates a goal here or there can be the difference between a W or an L in a hockey game. A huge reason why the Grind Line was so successful is that they weren't just a shutdown line, they could also score on you. I feel like a line of Miller/Legwand/Abby (when Z comes back and take's Abby off the top line) is a much bigger offensive threat than Miller/Glendening/Legwand. And I don't feel like the numbers show that we'd be losing too much defensively.

If our 4th line could produce like Miller, that is ~10 goals/82 games for each player, that's a +.366 GPG increase. That's huge. Go from a 2.5 GPG team to a 2.866 GPG team and you're going to win a lot more games. I really really really, like depth scoring.

But these guys don't play that much so it's really going to be a huge difference either way.

 

[Mantha Poodoo]

Looks like a dead heat in most respects other than GA/60. I suppose it's just about preferences. A little offense with your shutdown guys vs none at all and slightly better defense.

Not just in GA/60. Glendening is about .6 points ahead of Miller in Corsi Rel QoC. That's pretty huge. It's even more huge when you factor in that it's in combination with a .4 difference in GA/60 (higher on the PK). That's something like the difference between the Corsi Rel QoC and GA/60 of Zetterberg vs Abdelkader, for example.

Then factor in that Glendening is better on faceoffs and much better at shadowing specific players, and that Detroit has many players with similar defensive stats to Miller (but only a couple players that do as well or better as Glendening in the same categories, and that two of them are paid over $6m/yr) and it's no contest.

 

[source]

it will and should be jurco

miller and glen play a different and likely more important role come playoffs

let jurco get some games in then send him back to dominate in grand rapids

Yep, seems like this is the majority opinion.

But the playoffs are a blank slate, and realistically it could be anyone.