Who is the Hart front runner?

[Regal]

Wow, I didn't realize Kane was playing goal too. He really is the MVP then, Chicago should push that angle harder.

Yea, this "Chicago is doing better than expectations" argument is overblown. Kane isn't suddenly better than his numbers because question marks coming into the season, like goaltending or the center position, have been filled well by Lankinen and Suter

 

[The Moose is Loose]

This is the problem with Hfboards mods, because if I call 6ix a moron, I get an infraction. But he can have a garbage take and hide like a coward when he gets called out.

100%

I don't have a like button because I took the bait of some trolls. Why aren't the trolls being handed lifetime bands like candy- they not only don't contribute at all to hockey discussion, they're responsible for the majority of the toxicity on these boards. I think if the mods took the time to actually examine an interaction it'd be really easy to figure out who is starting the fights (aka the same few people)

 

[The Moose is Loose]

You are being ridiculous lmao Kane is carrying a team who is without their 1C and 2C all season, had lost a top 10 goalie in the offseason, is icing 8 rookies in prominent roles.

A team that everyone on this board thought would be battling Detroit and Ottawa for #1OA is pretty comfortably in a playoff spot in large part to Kane. So yeah McDavid being good while having another MVP on his line is less impressive

He literally said "show me with stats"

And they you start babbling on, while not using any stats. So don't act like you answered his question and made a case for Kane over McDavid.

Kane is having a hell of season but history says that if the season ended today- McDavid would win the Hart, and rather easily at that.

 

[McAsuno]

Yeah you’re right. Matthews is a bum. Only has 3 goals in last 2 games against a vezina goalie while playing with 1 wrist, and leads the league in goals missing a few games.

Not a bum, but not better than McDrai

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Instead of all just spouting off our worthless opinions that don't mean anything- lets examine something concrete- precedent. Precedent tells us that "he has a star teammate" has never lost any player the Hart, because thats a bs argument and luckily the Hart voters are intelligent enough to realize that (well most of them are).

Since the lockout 15 years ago, the Art Ross winner has won the Hart 10 times.
Here are the 5 exceptions:
2018- McDavid didn't win because he missed the playoffs (97 still won the Lindsay)
2015- Monster year from Price combined with a weak Art Ross win by Benn
2013- St.Louis wins the Art Ross 4 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 32 goals to St.Louis' 17 goals
2011- Sedin wins the Art Ross 6 points ahead of Perry, who scored 50 goals to Sedin's 41 goals
2009- Malkin wins the Art Ross 3 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 56 goals to Malkin's 35 goals
So here's what this tells us- as long as they make the playoffs, the Art Ross winner will very likely take the Hart unless another player with a top 3 points finish has significantly more goals.


If the season ended today McDavid would win the Art Ross (by a large margin), is 2nd in goals (has a large goals margin on Kane), and the Oilers are comfortably 3rd in their division. Thus none of the criteria for the exceptions have occurred and it is a slam-dunk that McDavid would win.

The fact that nearly 40% of this board thinks that it'd go to Kane if the season ended today just goes to show how many people ignore black and white facts in exchange for a narrative they personally prefer more.

 

[McAsuno]

Instead of all just spouting off our worthless opinions that don't mean anything- lets examine something concrete- precedent. Precedent tells us that "he has a star teammate" has never lost any player the Hart, because thats a bs argument and luckily the Hart voters are intelligent enough to realize that (well most of them are).

Since the lockout 15 years ago, the Art Ross winner has won the Hart 10 times.
Here are the 5 exceptions:
2018- McDavid didn't win because he missed the playoffs (97 still won the Lindsay)
2015- Monster year from Price combined with a weak Art Ross win by Benn
2013- St.Louis wins the Art Ross 4 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 32 goals to St.Louis' 17 goals
2011- Sedin wins the Art Ross 6 points ahead of Perry, who scored 50 goals to Sedin's 41 goals
2009- Malkin wins the Art Ross 3 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 56 goals to Malkin's 35 goals
So here's what this tells us- as long as they make the playoffs, the Art Ross winner will very likely take the Hart unless another player with a top 3 points finish has significantly more goals.


If the season ended today McDavid would win the Art Ross (by a large margin), is 2nd in goals (has a large goals margin on Kane), and the Oilers are comfortably 3rd in their division. Thus none of the criteria for the exceptions have occurred and it is a slam-dunk that McDavid would win.

The fact that nearly 40% of this board thinks that it'd go to Kane if the season ended just goes to show how many people ignore black and white facts in exchange for a narrative they personally prefer more.

That's the thing. They try to discredit McDavid because of the Draisaitl factor. McDrai haven't been reunited, until they were shut out by the leafs. Why wouldn't the coach change up the lines if the teams especially the top 6 had issues scoring? Nobody bat an eye when Kucherov won the Hart. There was no 'but Kucherov plays with guys like Stamkos and Point, or has Hedman on his back end, and Vasilevsky in net.' Its just lazy narratives used on McDavid.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

That's the thing. They try to discredit McDavid because of the Draisaitl factor. McDrai haven't been reunited, until they were shut out by the leafs. Why wouldn't the coach change up the lines if the teams especially the top 6 had issues scoring? Nobody bat an eye when Kucherov won the Hart. There was no 'but Kucherov plays with guys like Stamkos and Point, or has Hedman on his back end, and Vasilevsky in net.' Its just lazy narratives used on McDavid.

Kucherov played on the most stacked team in recent history, while McDavid had basically the same PPG on an awful team. But the voters don't care- they gave it to Kucherov extremely easily because he had the higher point totals.

 

[McAsuno]

Kucherov played on the most stacked team in recent history, while McDavid had basically the same PPG on an awful team. But the voters don't care- they gave it to Kucherov extremely easily because he had the higher point totals.

Exactly. All of this 'but but he plays with Draisaitl and feasts on a weak division' is irrelevant. McDavid running away in points will have him win the Hart. Just like how Draisaitl won both the Art Ross, Hart, and Ted Lindsay last year despite naysayers trying to discredit him by mentioning how MacKinnon and Panarin deserved it more. Seeing the same old typical lazy crap used on both Draisaitl and McDavid is just comical to read.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Exactly. All of this 'but but he plays with Draisaitl and feasts on a weak division' is irrelevant. McDavid running away in points will have him win the Hart. Just like how Draisaitl won both the Art Ross, Hart, and Ted Lindsay last year despite naysayers trying to discredit him by mentioning how MacKinnon and Panarin deserved it more. Seeing the same old typical lazy crap used on both Draisaitl and McDavid is just comical to read.

I think some of feeling that McDavid/Draisaitl have been "targeted" is just because as an Oiler fan you're on the receiving end.
I think every year the fanbase of the teams of the Hart/Lindsay finalists who didn't win cry that they were robbed, even if deep down they know the winner deserved it.

And I'd be understanding of that here, if it was Hawks fans vs everyone else that'd make sense to me. Hawks fans watch Kane every night so of course they're going to argue that he should win, but the rest of the fanbases should realize McDavid is running away with it.

What I don't get is why its 40% of people who think its Kane should win. There are leaf fans who don't even watch Kane frequently and they are backing Kane simply because he doesn't wear an Oilers jersey, not because he has an statistical claim for the Hart.

 

[McAsuno]

I think some of feeling that McDavid/Draisaitl have been "targeted" is just because as an Oiler fan you're on the receiving end.
I think every year the fanbase of the teams of the Hart/Lindsay finalists who didn't win cry that they were robbed, even if deep down they know the winner deserved it.

And I'd be understanding of that here, if it was Hawks fans vs everyone else that'd make sense to me. Hawks fans watch Kane every night so of course they're going to argue that he should win, but the rest of the fanbases should realize McDavid is running away with it.

What I don't get is why its 40% of people who think its Kane should win. There are leaf fans who don't even watch Kane frequently and they are backing Kane simply because he doesn't wear an Oilers jersey, not because he has an statistical claim for the Hart.

If you're referring to the yapper that kept yapping about the leafs shutting the Oilers out, it shouldn't be a surprise .

 

[Kamus]

You are being ridiculous lmao Kane is carrying a team who is without their 1C and 2C all season, had lost a top 10 goalie in the offseason, is icing 8 rookies in prominent roles.

A team that everyone on this board thought would be battling Detroit and Ottawa for #1OA is pretty comfortably in a playoff spot in large part to Kane. So yeah McDavid being good while having another MVP on his line is less impressive

So again show me the stats to back up Kane is carrying Chicago more then McDavid is the oilers.... back up your position....

 

[Regal]

Instead of all just spouting off our worthless opinions that don't mean anything- lets examine something concrete- precedent. Precedent tells us that "he has a star teammate" has never lost any player the Hart, because thats a bs argument and luckily the Hart voters are intelligent enough to realize that (well most of them are).

Since the lockout 15 years ago, the Art Ross winner has won the Hart 10 times.
Here are the 5 exceptions:
2018- McDavid didn't win because he missed the playoffs (97 still won the Lindsay)
2015- Monster year from Price combined with a weak Art Ross win by Benn
2013- St.Louis wins the Art Ross 4 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 32 goals to St.Louis' 17 goals
2011- Sedin wins the Art Ross 6 points ahead of Perry, who scored 50 goals to Sedin's 41 goals
2009- Malkin wins the Art Ross 3 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 56 goals to Malkin's 35 goals
So here's what this tells us- as long as they make the playoffs, the Art Ross winner will very likely take the Hart unless another player with a top 3 points finish has significantly more goals.


If the season ended today McDavid would win the Art Ross (by a large margin), is 2nd in goals (has a large goals margin on Kane), and the Oilers are comfortably 3rd in their division. Thus none of the criteria for the exceptions have occurred and it is a slam-dunk that McDavid would win.

The fact that nearly 40% of this board thinks that it'd go to Kane if the season ended today just goes to show how many people ignore black and white facts in exchange for a narrative they personally prefer more.

I dont disagree with your general sentiment, but you're only focusing on one aspect of why a player won or lost, but you can't dismiss the teammate argument based on precedent either. St Louis, Sedin and Malkin all had a teammate in the top 5 in scoring. And while goals may have been a factor in the three of them not winning (as well as missing the playoffs for St.Louis), we also have Henrik Sedin winning in '10, with only a 3 point lead over Ovechkin and Crosby, while both players beat him by 20 goals. Your scenario is certainly the most likely, but never underestimate the voters to prefer a great story/narrative above all.

 

[Regal]

Exactly. All of this 'but but he plays with Draisaitl and feasts on a weak division' is irrelevant. McDavid running away in points will have him win the Hart. Just like how Draisaitl won both the Art Ross, Hart, and Ted Lindsay last year despite naysayers trying to discredit him by mentioning how MacKinnon and Panarin deserved it more. Seeing the same old typical lazy crap used on both Draisaitl and McDavid is just comical to read.

McDavid deserves to win this year, but just looking at point totals is the "lazy crap", not the actual analysis that led many to believe MacKinnon and Panarin were better players than Draisaitl last year. There were legitimate arguments for both of them.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I dont disagree with your general sentiment, but you're only focusing on one aspect of why a player won or lost, but you can't dismiss the teammate argument based on precedent either. St Louis, Sedin and Malkin all had a teammate in the top 5 in scoring. And while goals may have been a factor in the three of them not winning (as well as missing the playoffs for St.Louis), we also have Henrik Sedin winning in '10, with only a 3 point lead over Ovechkin and Crosby, while both players beat him by 20 goals. Your scenario is certainly the most likely, but never underestimate the voters to prefer a great story/narrative above all.

It's probably a combination of factors, but I think its safe to say that based on the voting of the past 15 years there are no cases that support Kane over McDavid right now

 

[snipes]

So again show me the stats to back up Kane is carrying Chicago more then McDavid is the oilers.... back up your position....

They don’t exist.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

McDavid


The rest.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Draisaitl should be leading the Selke discussion. 57% on the faceoff circle, +19 is the highest by a forward in a landslide. 5 GWG in 28 games, he’s scoring big goals at big moments.

Draisaitl is in the Hart Trophy race, but he’s nowhere near the Selke discussion. Take the homer goggles off.

 

[authentic]

Draisaitl is in the Hart Trophy race, but he’s nowhere near the Selke discussion. Take the homer goggles off.

Did that guy just use faceoffs and +/- to argue Draisaitl should win the Selke?

 

[McFlash97]

It's jealousy. A ton of HF posters are extremely bitter at the Oilers for drafting 2 guys of this caliber despite the Oilers lack of draft success the past decade.

They can't stand the amount of attention a small city in Northern Canada gets in comparison to thier own teams. The rich history of the Oilers despite the recent lack of success, or basically owning the record books team wise offensively and basically being the cream of the crop when it comes to NHL born players per capita.

 

[KidLine93]

Did that guy just use faceoffs and +/- to argue Draisaitl should win the Selke?

Well based off last years cry babies when Draisaitl won the Hart/Lindsay. +/- is the most important stat in the league. Now magically all of those detractors are hiding. Coincidence.

 

[Regal]

It's jealousy. A ton of HF posters are extremely bitter at the Oilers for drafting 2 guys of this caliber despite the Oilers lack of draft success the past decade.

They can't stand the amount of attention a small city in Northern Canada gets in comparison to thier own teams. The rich history of the Oilers despite the recent lack of success, or basically owning the record books team wise offensively and basically being the cream of the crop when it comes to NHL born players per capita.

This feels like a Leaf fan take. No one's jealous of Edmonton

 

[Fatass]

Matthews, and McDavid up here?
Barkov and Kane down south?

 

[Regal]

Well based off last years cry babies when Draisaitl won the Hart/Lindsay. +/- is the most important stat in the league. Now magically all of those detractors are hiding. Coincidence.

That's false equivalence bs. No one's hiding because no one but a handful of trolls were using plus minus alone to discredit him last year. First, plus minus isn't a defensive stat, because it takes into account goals for. Draisaitl's offense is so good, he can be a positive and still be poor defensively (and he was positive 5v5 last year, though barely). Second, every underlying stat that measured shot and chance suppression suggested he was really bad defensively last year, and while he's improved this year, his numbers remain below average. The difference is he's riding a ridiculous PDO of 107 this year. Draisaitl isn't the one responsible for getting .940 goaltending behind him. Draisaitl's a great player, but there's never been any statistical basis for him being good defensively. He gives up a lot the other way, and that needs to be taken into account in any analysis of his play.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

no the guy that continues to score goals playing with one wrist. McDavid put up 0 points against the leafs with 2 backup goalies playing. Lighting it up against Ottawa doesn’t hold much weight for any player in the North Division.

He's actually slowed down. 18 goals in his first 18 games, he's got 3 goals in his last 8 games. He's also only 4 goals up on McDavid now, but is miles behind McDavid in points.

Of course, he'll probably go crazy tonight. But as you've pointed out, games versus Ottawa don't count so what Matthews does tonight is irrelevant.

 

[Regal]

Did that guy just use faceoffs and +/- to argue Draisaitl should win the Selke?

And GWGs apparently