Who is the Hart front runner?

[6ix]

He's actually slowed down. 18 goals in his first 18 games, he's got 3 goals in his last 8 games. He's also only 4 goals up on McDavid now, but is miles behind McDavid in points.

Of course, he'll probably go crazy tonight. But as you've pointed out, games versus Ottawa don't count so what Matthews does tonight is irrelevant.

Jeeze... do you live under a rock? He’s slowed down because his wrist isn’t fully healed yet. He’s literally had to move his spot on the PP from shooter to net front presence. Toronto’s PP has gone in the gutter since then so I hope he can get back to the shooting spot again very soon.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Instead of all just spouting off our worthless opinions that don't mean anything- lets examine something concrete- precedent. Precedent tells us that "he has a star teammate" has never lost any player the Hart, because thats a bs argument and luckily the Hart voters are intelligent enough to realize that (well most of them are).

Since the lockout 15 years ago, the Art Ross winner has won the Hart 10 times.
Here are the 5 exceptions:
2018- McDavid didn't win because he missed the playoffs (97 still won the Lindsay)
2015- Monster year from Price combined with a weak Art Ross win by Benn
2013- St.Louis wins the Art Ross 4 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 32 goals to St.Louis' 17 goals
2011- Sedin wins the Art Ross 6 points ahead of Perry, who scored 50 goals to Sedin's 41 goals
2009- Malkin wins the Art Ross 3 points ahead of Ovi, who scored 56 goals to Malkin's 35 goals
So here's what this tells us- as long as they make the playoffs, the Art Ross winner will very likely take the Hart unless another player with a top 3 points finish has significantly more goals.


If the season ended today McDavid would win the Art Ross (by a large margin), is 2nd in goals (has a large goals margin on Kane), and the Oilers are comfortably 3rd in their division. Thus none of the criteria for the exceptions have occurred and it is a slam-dunk that McDavid would win.

The fact that nearly 40% of this board thinks that it'd go to Kane if the season ended today just goes to show how many people ignore black and white facts in exchange for a narrative they personally prefer more.

The voters are so predictable that a simple flow chart predicts the winner with 100% accuracy going back to 2001 (damn you Pronger):

Obviously, some of these rules are arbitrary, and I've over-fit the steps to fit the data. There's no guarantee it will continue to hold true. But, based on the voting patterns from the past two decades, McDavid would win the Hart if the season ended today.

 

[5 14 6 1]

Jeeze... do you live under a rock? He’s slowed down because his wrist isn’t fully healed yet. He’s literally had to move his spot on the PP from shooter to net front presence. Toronto’s PP has gone in the gutter since then so I hope he can get back to the shooting spot again very soon.

How was that free game against the Sens tonight?

 

[kilowatt]

The voters are so predictable that a simple flow chart predicts the winner with 100% accuracy going back to 2001 (damn you Pronger):

View attachment 407445

Obviously, some of these rules are arbitrary, and I've over-fit the steps to fit the data. There's no guarantee it will continue to hold true. But, based on the voting patterns from the past two decades, McDavid would win the Hart if the season ended today.

It's not out of the realm of possibility to have McDavid, Draisaitl, Marner, and Matthews in the top five in scoring, and I really wonder what effect the North Division's outrageous goals against average will play into the awards. For my money, Kane and Kopitar have been outright incredible given their team situation. If the Blackhawks or the Kings make the playoffs, it's because of those two players offensively without a doubt. Hell, for Kopitar, the next highest scoring player in LA is Drew Doughty, and he's #63 on the list.

 

[6ix]

How was that free game against the Sens tonight?

the boys racked up some points but 0 points in the standings.

 

[McFlyingV]

It's not out of the realm of possibility to have McDavid, Draisaitl, Marner, and Matthews in the top five in scoring, and I really wonder what effect the North Division's outrageous goals against average will play into the awards. For my money, Kane and Kopitar have been outright incredible given their team situation. If the Blackhawks or the Kings make the playoffs, it's because of those two players offensively without a doubt. Hell, for Kopitar, the next highest scoring player in LA is Drew Doughty, and he's #63 on the list.

Probably not much at all. The following are the GAA for each division:

East: 2.92
West: 2.89
North: 3.06
Central: 2.97

If you want to extrapolate these stats for Kane (Central), and Kopitar (West) while maintaining each players current % of team goals they're involved on, then here is what their stats look like if playing in the supposedly "outrageous(ly)" terrible defensive North division.

Kane - 0.09 increase in team goals scored x 29 games = 2.61 more goals scored by his team. Kane records a point on 46% of his team's goals. 0.46 x 2.61 = 1.2 more points.

Kopitar - 0.17 increase in team goals scored x 27 games = 4.59 more goals scored by his team. Kopitar records a point on 41% of his team's goals. 0.41 x 4.59 = 1.88 more points.

There's nothing to support any argument that division influences the scoring race in any meaningful way.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Probably not much at all. The following are the GAA for each division:

East: 2.92
West: 2.89
North: 3.06
Central: 2.97

If you want to extrapolate these stats for Kane (Central), and Kopitar (West) while maintaining each players current % of team goals they're involved on, then here is what their stats look like if playing in the supposedly "outrageous(ly)" terrible defensive North division.

Kane - 0.09 increase in team goals scored x 29 games = 2.61 more goals scored by his team. Kane records a point on 46% of his team's goals. 0.46 x 2.61 = 1.2 more points.

Kopitar - 0.17 increase in team goals scored x 27 games = 4.59 more goals scored by his team. Kopitar records a point on 41% of his team's goals. 0.41 x 4.59 = 1.88 more points.

There's nothing to support any argument that division influences the scoring race in any meaningful way.

If only we had last year to see if McDavid and Draisaitl could be 1-2 in scoring.

 

[thadd]

If Chicago makes it into the playoffs, I'm giving it to Kane. 32 years old. Been in the league for something like 14 seasons and he's clearly still in his prime. Maybe this is the year that I accept that he's the best American hockey player of all time. I insisted on holding onto Modano for a very long time.

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

I say the Oilers would lose a lot more value if you take McDavid out of the line up than the Blackhawks lose if they take Kane out, so McDavid it is.

 

[ColbyChaos]

It's jealousy. A ton of HF posters are extremely bitter at the Oilers for drafting 2 guys of this caliber despite the Oilers lack of draft success the past decade.

They can't stand the amount of attention a small city in Northern Canada gets in comparison to thier own teams. The rich history of the Oilers despite the recent lack of success, or basically owning the record books team wise offensively and basically being the cream of the crop when it comes to NHL born players per capita.

I don’t think there’s anyone outside of Buffalo jealous of the Oilers lol

 

[ColbyChaos]

I say the Oilers would lose a lot more value if you take McDavid out of the line up than the Blackhawks lose if they take Kane out, so McDavid it is.

Yeah the Oilers just have to rely on their other MVP.... Chicago is a lot more reliant on Kane than the Oilers are with McDavid.

take away McDavid you got the guy #2 in league scoring and the 2020 Hart winner.

Take away Kane on the Hawks and you get DeBrincat and a bunch of rookies

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Kane occasionally has to go up against some good teams, so him

 

[Steven Toast]

Kane occasionally has to go up against some good teams, so him

Chicago has played the good teams in the division (TB, FL, CAR) a whopping 11 times in their first 29 games. In those games they have a 2-6-3 record and Chicago plays these teams a lot in the back half. I think that Dallas will catch them for the 4th spot.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Chicago has played the good teams in the division (TB, FL, CAR) a whopping 11 times in their first 29 games. In those games they have a 2-6-3 record and Chicago plays these teams a lot in the back half. I think that Dallas will catch them for the 4th spot.

idk about Dallas, but yes I expect Chicago to slow down

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

Yeah the Oilers just have to rely on their other MVP.... Chicago is a lot more reliant on Kane than the Oilers are with McDavid.

take away McDavid you got the guy #2 in league scoring and the 2020 Hart winner.

Take away Kane on the Hawks and you get DeBrincat and a bunch of rookies

It really doesn't matter who's left. McDavid has more value to the Oilers than Kane to the blackhawks, because his a better player. simple as that.

People over complicate the hart. Best player in the world brings the most value, no matter what team you insert him into. You can insert McDavid to the Senators or the Lightning, and he still brings most value. Either bringing the senators up from the basement or making Lightning that much more favorite to win the cup.

 

[Plural]

McDavid.
Kane

rest

 

[GMofOilers]

14 point lead over Kane in 32 games. Hes going to have a 20 point lead in the end. Hes got more assists then all but 3 players have points. Plus hes still chasing the Rocket right now. Might win them all this year.

 

[snipes]

This should be a landslide for McDavid right now.

 

[ColbyChaos]

14 point lead over Kane in 32 games. Hes going to have a 20 point lead in the end. Hes got more assists then all but 3 players have points. Plus hes still chasing the Rocket right now. Might win them all this year.

Playing in the North division can do that

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Playing in the North division can do that

you know McDavid is scoring at pretty much the exact same pace as in other years, right?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Playing in the North division can do that

What about last year? When he started the year at the exact same pace he has this year.

 

[cupface52]

Playing in the North division can do that

Yes.. the whopping 3% more goals scored in the north compared to the central is why McDavid is outscoring Kane by 33%.

 

[McFlash97]

Playing in the North division can do that

another dumb take....

 

[McAsuno]

Playing in the North division can do that

Dumb lazy narrative

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Playing in the North division can do that

Being the best player on the planet in his prime can also do that.