Who is on the verge of busting if they have a bad season in 2018/19?

[OakCity]

misunderstood thread. Busts are not my thing LOL

 

[Lays]

Nope.

He wouldn't even be the best one they'd currently have.

Lol you think Rielly is better than Provorov

 

[Jtown]

My point stands. Nolan Patrick projects to be a two-way 50-60pt C who like Nuge is often injured. He doesn't possess the elite game-breaking passing/vision that Draisaitl did in the Dub.

He's basically a better version of Brayden Schenn (who I wasn't a big fan of in junior).

he is a better version of a guy who just a 70 point season? I agree. From what i have seen of Patrick he has every abiity you could want. Great hands, breakaway speed, a good shot, and good vision. He is also strong on the puck , and very craft on d. First half of the year, he graded out as the worst forward in the league. 2nd half was different story, and if he gets a full year on the top pp i imagine 30 goals is well within his reach.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Lol you think Rielly is better than Provorov

He is

 

[voxel]

he is a better version of a guy who just a 70 point season? I agree. From what i have seen of Patrick he has every abiity you could want. Great hands, breakaway speed, a good shot, and good vision. He is also strong on the puck , and very craft on d. First half of the year, he graded out as the worst forward in the league. 2nd half was different story, and if he gets a full year on the top pp i imagine 30 goals is well within his reach.

Schenn took a long time (9 years?) to breakout. This was his first season he hit 60+. I remember watching him in junior and not buying the hype. Definitely Patrick is better.

Heck, I have a low opinion of Dylan Strome who I peg to be a 2C like Schenn.

All the attributes you mention... Nuge also had in spades (except being strong on the puck, but he was shifty like Datsyuk) in his rookie season. People think players magically increase their production with more minutes but they hit walls against better defenders/checkers. Look at the progressions of MacKinnon and Couturier. It took them 5 and 7 years to get close to their draft projections.

70pts as a center is not trivial. Toews has done it once in his career and I consider him HHOF worthy.

 

[Fig]

Did anyone mention Klimchuk, Shinkaruk and Lazar? We kept all 3, but I dunno what to think.

I think they're totally done at the NHL level if this season is not a good showing for them. But with Huska's promotion, I wouldn't strike them all off just yet.

 

[dire wolf]

I don't think either of these guys are busts, disappointments maybe though. I think both will be in the league long term. Reinhart a depth scorer/PP guy and Zacha as a checking bottom 6 center.

If Reinhart turns out to only be a depth scorer/PP guy, I'll be disappointed and surprised. After getting off to a horrid start to last season with a failed experiment at center and AHL line-mates, he looked elite in the second half of the season - putting up 18 goals and 37 points in his last 38 games and strong two-way play. He's one of the top scorers from his draft class. Not even close to a bust.

 

[feffan]

Heck, I have a low opinion of Dylan Strome who I peg to be a 2C like Schenn.

I´m neither a Schenn or Flyers or Blues fan, but to peg Schenn as a 2C at the moment is a little bit unjust. Not "Malkin is a 2C" unjust. But this is a good defensive player who the last 3 seasons also has placed 24, 32 and 19 in scoring amongst centers (while doing time as a w in Philli if I remember correctley...). He has for the last 3 seasons been a 1C. Maybe not the ideal 1C on a contender and not a top 10 C, but for sure a stabile 1C.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

You’re a fool. Provorov would be the best Dman the Leafs have had since the 90’s

My god. This is why nobody takes this site seriously. The overhype of certain young players combined with ignoring history is mind blowing.

 

[feffan]

Overall in this thread, and of course HF in general, people over value 1st round picks after pick 1-3. Everyone seems to expect a 1st line Art Ross challenger with their 8th or 16th pick, but the truth is that after the usual first drop off (this year seeminlgy after the 2...) what a team and their fans should expect is a top 9 forward or a top 6 defender. The next big drop off is around 15. From their and on a NHL regular is what to be expected. This is not what one hopes for of course. There then is a small drop around pick 30, the next sharp decline is around pick 100 and players picked after that has a similiar sucess rate as to what players they become, even if GP % drop a little bit. So the value difference of a 5th regarding a 6th is almost not there. It´s all up to the development department and luck.

Basically, you are not a bust if you´re a good 3rd liner picked with the 5th pick. Even if peoples expetcations on there shiny new toys make it so.

For further reading:
Cullen: Updated NHL Draft Pick Values, Observations
https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

 

[feffan]

My god. This is why nobody takes this site seriously. The overhype of certain young players combined with ignoring history is mind blowing.

Agreed. Even if I´d probably take Provorov of the two, it´s because of I think he has more to develop in to than Rielly. As of today they both are about equal in my eyes. And I have to eat crow regarding Riellys offence, I tought he didn´t have the step he took this season in him.

And of course the statement made by the other poster "Provorov would be the best Dman the Leafs have had since the 90’s" is ridicilous. They haven´t had a Norris challenger, but Kaberle was a top 10-15 D at least in his prime, a level Provorov is nothing close to.

 

[Kevs Security]

No D-man under the age of 23 is a bust, unless he plays at the ECHL/other minor league. If he plays in the NHL, AHL, SHL, KHL, NLA or Finnish Major League, he's not a bust. Some swedish, finnish, russian etc prospects might not come to the States/Canada until they are 22 years old. Also these big D-men take longer to develope.

No power-forward under the age of 24 is a bust.
Pick #1 is a bust if he's not contributing to his teams offense/defense in his D+2 year.
Picks #2-5? Busts if they are not as good as the previous #2-5's in their D+4 year.
Picks #6-15: I'd give them 5 years to prove themselves.
Picks #16-93: 6 years for the D-men, 5 for the forwards.
Picks #94-: usually give up at the age of 25, pack their shit and leave for Euroleagues. Can't really bust because no-one has any expectations for these guys.

So what I'm saying is, with a high selection, comes high hopes. I wouldn't call Strome a bust, not just yeat. Imo he has like two seasons to prove himself. But anyways, guys with now-or-never seasons ahead of them... these guys are busts after next season. All hope is gone. No-one will give them another chance if they fvck this up. But they still have enough potential to be worth a shot. Conner Brickley doesn't belong in this list, because he busted like three years ago. I bolded the ones I think will make it:

Samuel Morin
Hunter Shinkaruk
Slater Koekkoek
Michael Dal Colle
Chris Bigras
Kerby Rychel
Brendan Gaunce
Ian McCoshen
Josh Ho-Sang
Jack Dougherty
Marko Dano
Jason Dickinson
Michael McCarron
Anthony Stolarz
Tyler Bertuzzi
Nikita Scherbak
Nikolai Goldobin
Morgan Klimchuk
Emile Poirier
Brendan Leipsic


Guys like Yakupov, Girgesons, Bennett, Connolly etc are clearly dissapointments, but not complete busts since they did make a living playing hockey professionally in the NHL. Stolarz could play a couple of years in the KHL, come back and win 40 games for his team. Dano and Scherbak could do the same, but come back as 50 point players. You know, you could bust, but make a comeback. It's not impossible. All of these guys could someday play 16 minutes a game in the NHL.

-Your friend, Kevs

 

[Voight]

Lol you think Rielly is better than Provorov

.... because he is?

 

[theoriginalBCF]

virtanen has actually tracked decently relative to his draft +1 and especially his draft+3

If he takes a step back however, I think it is a reasonable assessment.