Speculation: Who is in goal next season?

[BigG44]

I was curious about Dallas' competition for expansion goalies.

If you include Pittsburgh, I think there are 23 teams with their 1 protected goalie locked up. That leaves 5 teams who should be in the market, and then there are 2 maybes for me.

Arizona, Buffalo, Calgary, Dallas, and Philadelphia all should have a spot open. Theoretically, PHI could protect Neuvirth or BUF one of their guys. It seems unlikely though, at least if I was them.

Ottawa probably ought to protect Anderson, but he is 35 years old with only 1 year remaining on his contract. I'd hate to lose him if I was them, but I think you at least consider it if you think you can land a goalie of the future. I wouldn't put them on a list for MAF, but they'd be competition for a young starter potentially.

Vancouver could protect Markstrom. They did just give him an extension. I don't think MAF would waive for here, but maybe they get in the market for a young starter.

Personally, now that I look at the list, I think if Calgary doesn't go and trade/sign for Bishop, they're the logical landing spot for MAF.

I assumed in this scenario that Carolina closes the deal with Darling, but that's far from a certainty.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

BigG posting again. Makes me happy

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

My feelings towards Bishop have always been so dependent on the term of his next contract. Short term, love him. Long term, scares the crap out me.

So you'd love to be able to negotiate with multiple parties at the same time, get the price and terms on various guys in order to properly figure out the best option overall. Doesn't seem like that's in the cards though, at least not to the extent I'd like.

Carolina may have kick started the market a bit early. And props to them for going after their guy, think they made a good gamble even though it doesn't fit my selfish interests. Like Darling a lot, been a really good goalie pretty much ever since he beat his personal demons.

 

[masinaLFC]

My feelings towards Bishop have always been so dependent on the term of his next contract. Short term, love him. Long term, scares the crap out me.

this

 

[MBTendy]

this

What's long for you? I'd be good with 5 years. Probably the longest I'd be willing to go though.

 

[masinaLFC]

What's long for you? I'd be good with 5 years. Probably the longest I'd be willing to go though.

I'd be okay with 4. 3 would be ideal, but propably not realistic for a coveted UFA. Still would rather go for a younger and not so injury prone goalie.

 

[LT]

Ottawa probably ought to protect Anderson, but he is 35 years old with only 1 year remaining on his contract. I'd hate to lose him if I was them, but I think you at least consider it if you think you can land a goalie of the future. I wouldn't put them on a list for MAF, but they'd be competition for a young starter potentially.

Considering what he's done for the Senators, it'd be pretty disgraceful if they don't keep him around. I know it's a business, but I think that should count for something, at least.

And has Buffalo spoiled on Lehner already? I thought he was their goalie of the future.

 

[Satan]

Bishop is probably looking for 6/7 years. Will the market buckle and give him that? We'll see.

 

[Hockey Dad]

No way I want any part of Bishop for 6 or 7 years.

 

[Duffeldof]

BigG post was really good. This is interesting situation.
Few things that affect this situation are how many of those teams need to make goalie move now?
How much they are willing to pay to get their goalie now or can they wait another season?

Also some player will be moved before exp draft when some will go in July.

When it comes to Dallas' decision MAF and Bishop are tricky ones. Because it would mean that we need to get rid of both Lehtonen and Niemi if we don't want to continua 1A+1B situation.

Bishop probably wants long contract and his caphit may be quite big. So I won't believe him coming here.
MAF (2 season 5.75mil) would be a lot better option but then we need to get rid of both of our goalies.

Lehtonen (5.9mil) Buyout caphit
17-18 $2,566,667
18-19 $1,666,667

Niemi (4.5mil) Buyout caphit
17-18 $1,500,000
18-19 $1,500,000

Buying out our goalies is in my opinion the last choice we should do.

Best scenario for us is to buy young goalie with atleast one cheap year in his contract, keep Lehtonen and trade Niemi as experienced backup to some team that has cheapish goalie already and can take that 4.5mil caphit even if his backup goalie.

So our best choices are probably Raanta, Korpisalo and Grubauer?

Oilers paid Rangers 2nd and 3rd for one year of Talbot 1.45mil
Raanta has one year 1mil left in his contract so I would assume price is about in the same range?

How much there is competition in market for these players? Is 2nd and 3rd enough this year?

Edit: What about Mason? Jeff Reese has history with Mason and while he was Phi goalie coach Mason played pretty well.
We could probably sign him with reasonable price in July.

 

[Hockey Dad]

I am not sold on Raanta. I don't think he is proven and not sure he is anything more than a backup. Unless Bishop takes a 3 year deal I think I would rather have fleury.

 

[BigG44]

And has Buffalo spoiled on Lehner already? I thought he was their goalie of the future.

It's pretty hard to say now that Murray has been fired.

 

[LT]

It's pretty hard to say now that Murray has been fired.

Fair point, and I thought about that after I made the post. No telling what their new GM will see in his team.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

My preference is max 4 years of Bishop, even up to $6M per year. I think the market will come down from his initial bargaining ask of 7/7. Who signs a goalie past age 35?

Given Nill's history of seeking "value" in his transactions, I believe it is more likely we end up with MAF for reasons noted - limited contract length exposure mostly, but he is looking pretty good right now, as well. How much better could Bishop be for the extra commitment in term and money? Double or more the commitment, for maybe 5-10% better goal keeping?

Then, we keep Kari as an insurance policy in case MAF has injuries, but no doubt, MAF is 1A+. MAF has a decent, but mixed PO record, but if everything fell right next year, except for an MAF injury, Stars lose on a bad game seven in some series due to Kari, and chock it up to bad luck.

Given the expansion draft, it seems MAF could be had for a pick or two, and maybe not even a first rounder. Maybe our second and a lower pick? Seems like more reasonable value than an extra several years on Bishop.....

 

[MBTendy]

Did some digging on Steve Mason after Shapiro tweeted saying he'd put good odds on us acquiring Mason. His numbers under Reese are very good, and his 5 on 5 sv% in 14-15 was the best in the league (beating out Price), and 3rd best in 15-16. All that being done on a team who's defence is no better than ours, and he's still able to pull out those numbers. The dude is also 28. For some reason I thought he was in his early 30's. So he's entering his prime years and it may be a great buy low/high reward kind of deal for us.

Still not my number one option, I'd still love to see us somehow get Grubauer or Darling (long shot at this point given CAR will probably sign him), but Mason may work wonders for us.

Another option, trade for Fleury and hope they can take Niemi back. Maybe Niemi + ANA's pick for Fleury + their 4th. Then buyout Kari, and sign/trade for one of the younger goalies on the market.

 

[usefulfiction]

If we were to get MAF, I'd like to see us be aggressive in trying to get one of the younger goalies as the heir apparent.

 

[LT]

Did some digging on Steve Mason after Shapiro tweeted saying he'd put good odds on us acquiring Mason. His numbers under Reese are very good, and his 5 on 5 sv% in 14-15 was the best in the league (beating out Price), and 3rd best in 15-16. All that being done on a team who's defence is no better than ours, and he's still able to pull out those numbers. The dude is also 28. For some reason I thought he was in his early 30's. So he's entering his prime years and it may be a great buy low/high reward kind of deal for us.

Still not my number one option, I'd still love to see us somehow get Grubauer or Darling (long shot at this point given CAR will probably sign him), but Mason may work wonders for us.

Another option, trade for Fleury and hope they can take Niemi back. Maybe Niemi + ANA's pick for Fleury + their 4th. Then buyout Kari, and sign/trade for one of the younger goalies on the market.

He also had his best year under Hitchcock (won the Calder, 2nd in Vezina voting, 4th in Hart voting).

He's not my first choice, but I'd be alright with him.

 

[Duffeldof]

How about trading for Grubauer/Raanta before expansion and July we snatch Mason. And from year from now we will make choice which one we would keep. Mason or the younger one.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I would guess the Stars want to stay away from any hint of a two goalie system/controversy. I suspect Niemi is gone, Kari is a 20-30 game backup, and the new guy has the job to lose....and they hold their breath he doesn't.

The more I think about it, the more that makes me think Nill will go for Bishop, MAF, and maybe Mason. IMHO, that is the general order of most to least certain to be the clear cut starter (if no other reason than cost to acquire and salary)

If they bring in a backup who looks like he could be a starter, there seems to be a bigger risk that won't happen, and Kari is back in goal on an alternating basis, no? I think Raanta and Grubauer are less likely than the first three, but my thinking cap may not be the same as Nill's.

 

[BigG44]

How about trading for Grubauer/Raanta before expansion and July we snatch Mason. And from year from now we will make choice which one we would keep. Mason or the younger one.

That is the ideal option since Mason is a free agent. There's no reason to use your protected spot on him. Get a young guy in here. He's not the top option on the free agent market, and as I demonstrated recently, there aren't many teams in the market. He'll be a distant option for other teams after Darling, Bishop, and several young options.

 

[BigG44]

I would guess the Stars want to stay away from any hint of a two goalie system/controversy.

I disagree. Just because Kari and Niemi were not good enough to challenge in a 2 goalie system doesn't mean they'll abandon that philosophy. I still firmly believe it's honestly the best way to go. You just can't have guys that are mentally incapable of the competition. The second the pressure was off, no hope of the playoffs and Niemi turned into a dumpster fire, Kari Lehtonen looks like the guy who was carrying the team when we had no owner. I honestly really like Kari, but he doesn't have the mental fortitude of a starter on a good team or one being pushed by another guy.

Furthermore, Hitch comes from a 2 goalie system that worked great. There's no doubt in my mind he'd be OK with 2 good goalies. A goalie controversy is a good thing. It means both are playing well and you feel like you could win with either guy. Dallas didn't have a goalie controversy. They had two guys that didn't want to take the reigns or were not capable of taking the lead.

 

[BigG44]

How about trading for Grubauer/Raanta before expansion and July we snatch Mason. And from year from now we will make choice which one we would keep. Mason or the younger one.

To add to this ...

Heika isn't a rumormonger, but he seems to have a good read on where the team's head is at, and he'll drop hints without necessarily stating what he's heard. There are a number of examples, but most recently, he was one of the first to push the return of Hitchcock idea even around the trade deadline, and he was consistent with his saying he thought that was a possibility.

He's been pretty consistent at saying that it feels like Dallas thinks they can fix Kari, and he's here to stay. Personally, I think that's ridiculous.

I'm assuming they think not making him feel the pressure of being a starter will make his life easier. The only reason he played well late in the year though, IMO, was because there was no pressure to win ... none of it mattered. He can't consistently perform when the games matter, and just because he's a backup doesn't meant those games next year will be less important. Furthermore, I'd argue that, assuming they land a good one, he will actually play worse with the guy in front of him excelling. It will get in his head.

All of this is to say I absolutely agree that it's a no-brainer you buyout both, acquire a young goalie, and sign a free agent. Fill in the names as you see fit: Raanta/Bishop; Korpisalo/Mason; Grubauer/Darling. Any combination you want really. You bite the bullet and take the $4 million in dead space to start from scratch.

Like I already said, I think you go after 3 goalies this summer with the idea that Bow and Desrosiers have to earn their way into the AHL. It'll probably continue to change, but I think maybe something like Raanta or Korpisalo with Mason. Then either sign Copley or pull a side deal with Las Vegas to acquire Malcolm Subban after the the expansion draft. Take another goalie in the 2nd or 3rd round, and work your ass off with Ruusu, Point, and the new guy to actually develop someone.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Agree Heika has some insights from insiders, which he presents in a way that is non-threatening to management, and thus, they are willing to share and give him the scoop. That said, say they want to go for the CBJ backup, if they don't get him, we won't ever know. And that said, I guess we do know Nill went for Talbot, but wouldn't give up Honka, so no deal. I think same for Bishop early last year.

And, given Nill's penchant for value, the more I think about it, Mason or MAF makes the most sense in his way of thinking. IF we get back to our goal scoring ways, we only need a D and G corps to hold the GAA below 2.5-6 or so. (down from last year's 2.78 or whatever) They probably think any new goalie can help that by 0.25 or so, and Hitch systems maybe another 0.25, getting our GAA from last year's 3+ down in range. He may think Bishop is still too rich, but then, he is most likely, IMHO, to be this generations Eddie Belfour, so its a tough call.

 

[BigG44]

Let's go this route, Bishop has been solid in the playoffs. He just has a hard time of staying healthy. I would honestly be OK with the gamble on Bishop, but not if Kari Lehtonen is the backup. That's a ton of money thought to make that happen. You're talking at least $10 million to buyout both Niemi and Lehtonen plus signing Bishop. Then we're looking at probably the $1 to $2.5 million range on a legitimate backup.

So ... if you really wanted Bishop, would you be willing to commit $11 to $14 million on a Bishop tandem with ... let's say: Budaj, Condon, Bernier, Kinkaid?

EDIT: I think you're out on the young goalies if you get Bishop. Based on the Darling trade, I think there's a reasonable chance Bishop has a chance of getting done before expansion draft. In a perfect world, Darling and Bishop both choose to test the open market allowing Dallas to focus on a young goalie first. Rannta or Korpisalo should fit into the price structure to afford a guy like Bishop.

 

[Morry83]

I think the only realistic chance we get both Kari and Niemi off the roster is through trading for MAF. It doesn't sound like they're willing to buyout both goalies, but from what Heika says they will buyout one. Trading for MAF could allow you to send one to Pittsburgh and then buyout the other. I think Pittsburgh is the only team that'd be willing to take a goalie back.