Proposal: Who is first to go

Which player has the best chances to get traded first

  • Mikael Granlund

  • Pk Subban

  • Ryan Ellis

  • Roman josi

  • Kyle turris

  • Other


Results are only viewable after voting.

Porter Stoutheart

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It's not counter-intuitive to swap Smith for Kessel if that's what we are offered. I think it is counter-intuitive for us to selectively offer Smith for Kessel if straight goal-scoring is what we are looking for. I'm not sure if that makes any better sense. I'm definitely not disputing the relative worth, it's more just...if we want more goal scoring, we gain more by keeping Smith AND acquiring Kessel than swapping them.
Except we also have to give Pittsburgh something they might want. Zucker as a winger who might be able to slot in on one of their top lines was apparently what they wanted. We also know they have scoring on RD already from Letang and Schultz. And that any cap savings is probably attractive to them. And they definitely wouldn't want a center. So what does that leave? Smith is a winger who might be able to slot in on one of their top lines and is cheaper than Kessel. There is a potential drawback of course with his contract expiring, however.

And I wonder how many goals Smith scores if he's not seeing 2nd line duty anymore. Say you shuffle him back to 3rd line. He's probably not scoring 25 goals there. He'd still be a good player there and I'd ideally like to have him there too. But you have to give to get, and even an incremental improvement is still an improvement. We can't beat anybody in terms of offering a futures-oriented trade package for Kessel. If we got him it's more likely we'd have to do something like Minnesota tried with Zucker. Which might point at Smith. Not sure if he's actually enough for Pittsburgh, though. I guess it could depend on just how badly that situation is festering, it's clear they are motivated sellers. Just how motivated, and who are the other suitors?

I mean, if you have a better way to get Kessel, while keeping Smith, and satisfying Pittsburgh's ask, of course that'd be great too.

One nice thing about a Kessel/Smith swap is that it would not require us to make any further cap adjustments to the roster. In the event that we weren't going to be able to land Duchene, there is cap room here to just do this tweak on its own and run your Granlund-Turris-Kessel line, or contemplate mixing them up with JoFA. I don't think we NEED to trade Subban/Ellis - it was just one way to go at adding the 2nd line scoring. But if there's another way, and we get another year to possibly redeem value in Subban/Ellis, that could work out ok too.
 

Bringer of Jollity

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Except we also have to give Pittsburgh something they might want. Zucker as a winger who might be able to slot in on one of their top lines was apparently what they wanted. We also know they have scoring on RD already from Letang and Schultz. And that any cap savings is probably attractive to them. And they definitely wouldn't want a center. So what does that leave? Smith is a winger who might be able to slot in on one of their top lines and is cheaper than Kessel. There is a potential drawback of course with his contract expiring, however.

And I wonder how many goals Smith scores if he's not seeing 2nd line duty anymore. Say you shuffle him back to 3rd line. He's probably not scoring 25 goals there. He'd still be a good player there and I'd ideally like to have him there too. But you have to give to get, and even an incremental improvement is still an improvement. We can't beat anybody in terms of offering a futures-oriented trade package for Kessel. If we got him it's more likely we'd have to do something like Minnesota tried with Zucker. Which might point at Smith. Not sure if he's actually enough for Pittsburgh, though. I guess it could depend on just how badly that situation is festering, it's clear they are motivated sellers. Just how motivated, and who are the other suitors?

I mean, if you have a better way to get Kessel, while keeping Smith, and satisfying Pittsburgh's ask, of course that'd be great too.

One nice thing about a Kessel/Smith swap is that it would not require us to make any further cap adjustments to the roster. In the event that we weren't going to be able to land Duchene, there is cap room here to just do this tweak on its own and run your Granlund-Turris-Kessel line, or contemplate mixing them up with JoFA. I don't think we NEED to trade Subban/Ellis - it was just one way to go at adding the 2nd line scoring. But if there's another way, and we get another year to possibly redeem value in Subban/Ellis, that could work out ok too.
The funny thing with Zucker is that it looks like Fenton is as eager to trade him as Pittsburgh is to trade Kessel. Outside of his big season in '17-'18 he also seems to be rather comparable to Smith.

There's a lot of variables right now. If push comes to shove I still favor moving one of the RHDs, but I'm just not sure Poile actually breaks down and does the deed. I'd still rather go younger than Kessel as well, but I don't think we are likely to get a raw talent better than him back in a trade. Still concerned with some of the undercurrents with why he is leaving Pittsburgh though, especially with things not quite seeming "right" in our locker room for a bit over a year now.
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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The funny thing with Zucker is that it looks like Fenton is as eager to trade him as Pittsburgh is to trade Kessel. Outside of his big season in '17-'18 he also seems to be rather comparable to Smith.

There's a lot of variables right now. If push comes to shove I still favor moving one of the RHDs, but I'm just not sure Poile actually breaks down and does the deed. I'd still rather go younger than Kessel as well, but I don't think we are likely to get a raw talent better than him back in a trade. Still concerned with some of the undercurrents with why he is leaving Pittsburgh though, especially with things not quite seeming "right" in our locker room for a bit over a year now.
I seem to recall people saying Granlund and Zucker played well together too. So hey, if Fenton is that desperate to move Zucker, maybe he can be a Plan B/C/D type for us to look at. Although he seems more like a Smith in terms of overall impact to the roster. A quick winger who timed his breakout season just right and got a good contract, but probably not really a 30-goal threat. In his case I would question whether there was really any upgrade there.

I suspect Kessel is basically just a "goof" like the Pens fan above says. He isn't a typical hockey player personality, he's more introverted and awkward, a bit of dork, and he'll ignore or roll his eyes or whatever when a coach gets in his face instead of snapping to attention like most good little hockey soldiers are trained to do. And throw the homework assignments out the window in the off-season. It seems like it is more a case of the coach hating on him than the other players? I don't get a sense that Lavi is that much of a stern disciplinarian type. (Maybe that is part of our problem!) But I imagine if a coach is able to cut Kessel enough slack to do his thing, then Kessel will reward that freedom. Except then it does raise a question of how the other players are expected to behave.

Our room... as long as I'm just floating things out there with absolutely no way of knowing anything... it just seems like there's more a lack of intensity or accountability or something. Too relaxed? Players seem to get along and like eachother and I don't get the sense there is any outright tension or hostility. Just maybe a lack of leadership and focus. Obviously Kessel will not fix that! And may in fact fit right in with it. I'd still want his goals on the ice. And then hope that maybe some of the other players take it upon themselves to step up a little more to fill the leadership vacuum. They don't need to turn it into a bootcamp overnight or anything. Just a few key guys, especially those wearing the letters, being a little more proactive in their leadership roles maybe. :dunno:
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Nope. We are looking for a piece that we can use in our remaining 3 or so year window.
This time of the year people get a little bit of Draft Fever. Sometimes it's hard to resist jumping on the bandwagon. But realistically, there's no way we make any trade where the return is heavily weighted towards futures. That's not where we're at.
 
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NightowlPred

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Apr 7, 2017
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My main issue with shipping out Smith is he seemed to be the main Pred showing any semblance of leadership in the playoffs. I do think that is a gaping hole in the roster that isn’t going to show up as a tangible on the score sheet. How do they solve that?
Well this season was a little weird, but Joey in my eyes is an absolute playoff warrior.
During the regular season sometimes it seems (important it seems!) like he‘s just floating around. During the playoff he is on a whole different intensity level.
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
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My main issue with shipping out Smith is he seemed to be the main Pred showing any semblance of leadership in the playoffs. I do think that is a gaping hole in the roster that isn’t going to show up as a tangible on the score sheet. How do they solve that?
Smith definitely played hard and showed he cared anyway - I don't know if that's the full scope of leadership we need, but it was definitely noticeable.

I'm not sure it's possible to come up with a complete transfusion of leadership in one off-season. Is there one Messier Award legendary hero who comes in and suddenly we have leadership? Fisher was one thing, but already familiar and known to everybody. McLeod obviously wasn't the answer. Nor Simmonds and Boyle. End of the day I think our existing core players have to step up. Maybe they have to look in the mirror and somehow figure it out on their own. For all that guys like JoFA and the top D have been around for a while, they're mostly still pretty young. Maybe it's time they start transitioning to "veteran leader" status. They could bring back Boyle or maybe look for some other veteran depth player to add, but to me, it's not going to be enough until members of the long-term core step up and fill the void.

Hey, maybe Captain Canada Turris just got a taste of something he could bring to the table in that respect.
 
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Soundgarden

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Nope. We are looking for a piece that we can use in our remaining 3 or so year window.

I think there's two ways we can go forward if/when we trade Ellis or Subban.

The first is get a top 6 forward to shake things up, someone like Kessel is the obvious example. We roll two solid lines and if we can get Duchene as well, even better.

The other way is to do a retool using prospects while still maintaining our core.
Just look at what Boston did/should have done in the '14-16 drafts, they moved two guys who weren't in their plans in Lucic and Hamilton, kept the guys they knew they could still win with and got some good/great prospects.
Now, they probably should have had Barzal, Chabot, or Boeser, but Debrusk is looking solid and they hit homers with Pastrnak and McAvoy.

I think a top 10 pick could do wonders for us and coming out of the draft with a Krebs/Boldy/faller and one of Broberg/Seider, if they're available, puts us in a great place for the future.
 

Soundgarden

#164303
Jul 22, 2008
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We've also seen the best and worst of Ellis and I think his value is hovering around a mid first, if we can get the 8th ov for him and his contract I say we take it and run.
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
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We've also seen the best and worst of Ellis and I think his value is hovering around a mid first, if we can get the 8th ov for him and his contract I say we take it and run.
To me I guess these things go hand in hand with filling his spot. If I was 100% sure Fabbro could step in and do it, maybe then it feels like you are just getting a great pick for free. But I'm more like 99% sure Fabbro couldn't step in and do it. It would be quite a thing for a rookie from college to be able to play 25 mins a night in all situations and put up 40 pts. This is basically what guys like Dahlin and Heiskanen did, not what you expect Fabbro to be able to do.

I guess the other alternative is: are you 100% sure you can sign a UFA who can handle that load instead? Just spend Ellis' cap money on a replacement and pocket the free pick. And again, I'm not sure where that confidence would come from. Is there even a UFA D this year of that magnitude? There's Karlsson on another level entirely and then... Tyler Myers? And then nobody close? And the draft happens before the FA Frenzy anyway so how can you be sure?

So (just to maintain my 3-paragraph minimum quota)... probably what you do is say, look, I know Fabbro isn't going to ready to fill Ellis' shoes, and I know we can't sign a UFA who is either. But maybe we split the difference, sign a stopgap veteran RD (Stralman, Girardi, McQuaid, whoever) and sure, neither that guy nor Fabbro are carrying 25 mins a night in all situations like Ellis did. Instead they split ES time, and maybe Fabbro gets 2nd unit PP and the stopgap guy kills penalties, and really this Fabbro/Vet split at 18/19mins each is going to be just as effective overall as Ellis and Weber/Irwin at 25+12 mins would have been. I guess I could maybe buy that. :dunno:
 

Bringer of Jollity

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We've also seen the best and worst of Ellis and I think his value is hovering around a mid first, if we can get the 8th ov for him and his contract I say we take it and run.
Adam Boqvist
Casey Mittlestadt
Alexander Nylander
Zach Werenski
William Nylander
Rasmus Ristolainen
Derrick Pouliot
Sean Couturier
Alexander Burmistrov
Scott Glennie

The last 10 #8 picks. I think 3 as valuable, or more, than Ellis (maybe Ristolainen here as well), 2 the jury's still out on and 5 less valuable players (4 depending on how you view Ristolainen). Of the 3 best assets, Werenski and Couturier were immediately NHL ready and the latter took a good 5-6 seasons to really play up to his potential. This obviously only looks at the players actually drafted at #8 and doesn't consider the number of good players drafted after that spot.

I think it's a tough sell to give up a top 4 (top pairing?) d-man for an asset that isn't likely to make an impact for the next 3-4+ season when we are in compete mode. I have favored a futures-type return for one of the RHD, but envisioned the primary piece being a younger NHL-ready forward that can contribute now (just spitballing, but somebody like Konecny, a 20 goal/40 point guy at 22 who still has room to grow) and then maybe picks/prospects additional to that.
 
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Soundgarden

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In the past three seasons we've won the division(on accident), the Presidents trophy and went to the finals, I think it's inevitable to regress a little in the regular season. We don't need to be the best in the league to still be competitive or make a run and we don't necessarily need the absolute best defense on paper to be competitive either.

Having a top four of Josi, Ekholm, Fabbro and one of Subban/Ellis is still better than the majority of the league, even if we have to deal with growing pains of Fabbro.

Downgrading on Ellis/Subban this year while improving our forwards and adding prospects feels like a good way to keep up with the Jones', especially with two teams in our division has top 5 picks.

I agree that we should pick up another vet defender in case Fabbro isn't ready or if/when he it's a wall.
 
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LCPreds

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I think it's a tough sell to give up a top 4 (top pairing?) d-man for an asset that isn't likely to make an impact for the next 3-4+ season when we are in compete mode. I have favored a futures-type return for one of the RHD, but envisioned the primary piece being a younger NHL-ready forward that can contribute now (just spitballing, but somebody like Konecny, a 20 goal/40 point guy at 22 who still has room to grow) and then maybe picks/prospects additional to that.

Can definitely swing and miss on the 8OA, especially when looking in the short term. But it obviously frees up money to bring in Duchene. So you get an upgrade at C, a downgrade at D, and have the potential to have another play who could contribute within the next year or so. (I doubt an Ellis for 8oa actually exists in reality though)

Would have to figure out what to do with Turris/Bonino in order to slot in Duchene of course. Turris could also play wing so could conceivably keep him hoping for a rebound and try to trade another winger for a D replacement. Or move Turris for a D replacement? Centers will always hold value to someone. Never fails.

/endoframblingstreamofconsciousness
 
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Soundgarden

#164303
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The last 10 #8 picks. I think 3 as valuable, or more, than Ellis (maybe Ristolainen here as well), 2 the jury's still out on and 5 less valuable players (4 depending on how you view Ristolainen). Of the 3 best assets, Werenski and Couturier were immediately NHL ready and the latter took a good 5-6 seasons to really play up to his potential. This obviously only looks at the players actually drafted at #8 and doesn't consider the number of good players drafted after that spot.

I think it's a tough sell to give up a top 4 (top pairing?) d-man for an asset that isn't likely to make an impact for the next 3-4+ season when we are in compete mode. I have favored a futures-type return for one of the RHD, but envisioned the primary piece being a younger NHL-ready forward that can contribute now (just spitballing, but somebody like Konecny, a 20 goal/40 point guy at 22 who still has room to grow) and then maybe picks/prospects additional to that.

I think it all depends on how you view Ellis, was this year a fluke? He hasn't looked amazing in the playoffs the last two post-seasons. Is the downgrade from Ellis to Fabbro/UFA so big that it would be better off keeping him? Is his contract going to look awful a year or two from now?

I think if you pick any slot in the draft it'll have about an equal split in good players and busts unless it's top 2-3, but if you look at the picks directly after covers up for any bust on an off year.

2009: turned out to be a bit of a bad year, but Ellis was only picked three after Glennie.
2010: Granlund was the pick directly after Burmistrov, Fowler was picked close too. Does Burmistrov develop better on a different team?
2011: Couturier was a hit, Hamilton was directly after.
2012: Forsberg was supposed to go top 3, Trouba was picked directly after Pouilot
2013: Ristolienan has had his moments, Horvat directly after him.
2014: Nylander; Ehlers is directly after him
2015: Werenski, Meier, Rantanen in a row, that's a big year.
2016: early but Sergachev and Jost went directly after Alex Nylander

With Fabbro you have a little bit of a safety net for the pick we're getting. Maybe no.8 pick doesn't play in the league for 2-3 years but our 24th pick does. It's always going to be a bit of a crapshoot.
I think we can afford to take a hit to our defense, we've shown that the best defense on paper doesn't mean squat if they aren't playing well.
 
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Bringer of Jollity

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I think it all depends on how you view Ellis, was this year a fluke? He hasn't looked amazing in the playoffs the last two post-seasons. Is the downgrade from Ellis to Fabbro/UFA so big that it would be better off keeping him? Is his contract going to look awful a year or two from now?

I think if you pick any slot in the draft it'll have about an equal split in good players and busts unless it's top 2-3, but if you look at the picks directly after covers up for any bust on an off year.

2009: turned out to be a bit of a bad year, but Ellis was only picked three after Glennie.
2010: Granlund was the pick directly after Burmistrov, Fowler was picked close too. Does Burmistrov develop better on a different team?
2011: Couturier was a hit, Hamilton was directly after.
2012: Forsberg was supposed to go top 3, Trouba was picked directly after Pouilot
2013: Ristolienan has had his moments, Horvat directly after him.
2014: Nylander; Ehlers is directly after him
2015: Werenski, Meier, Rantanen in a row, that's a big year.
2016: early but Sergachev and Jost went directly after Alex Nylander

With Fabbro you have a little bit of a safety net for the pick we're getting. Maybe no.8 pick doesn't play in the league for 2-3 years but our 24th pick does. It's always going to be a bit of a crapshoot.
I think we can afford to take a hit to our defense, we've shown that the best defense on paper doesn't mean squat if they aren't playing well.
If last year was just a fluke, then yes, you potentially have a significant drop-off (and I find post-season a rough point for comparison because much of the roster has struggled the last two). Being in an "all-in, compete now" roster build, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to weaken the roster for an asset that isn't likely to meaningfully contribute for 3-4 seasons. It at least makes more sense to me to get back at least 1 known entity (3 of those picks were busts/low-impact players and Alexander Nylander isn't looking too impressive) if we're trading a piece as valuable as Ellis or Subban.
 

GeauxPreds1

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Man after seeing Skinner and buffalo are close to a 8 year 72 million dollar contract my hope for getting Duchene took a major hit. Before hearing that I was in the thinking there was a 50-60% chance to land him now hearing that I think poile panics at the cost now I'm at around 5-10% chance. I just cant see poile paying 9-10 million for a 2c or 1b however you look at it. Unless Duchene takes a 8-8.5 million a year I think we miss out on Duchene
 
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Soundgarden

#164303
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If last year was just a fluke, then yes, you potentially have a significant drop-off (and I find post-season a rough point for comparison because much of the roster has struggled the last two). Being in an "all-in, compete now" roster build, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me to weaken the roster for an asset that isn't likely to meaningfully contribute for 3-4 seasons. It at least makes more sense to me to get back at least 1 known entity (3 of those picks were busts/low-impact players and Alexander Nylander isn't looking too impressive) if we're trading a piece as valuable as Ellis or Subban.

I think the goal is to both compete and upgrade our prospect pool so we can compete long term. The trick is to do it smoothly. If we do nothing else this off-season but deal Ellis/Subban I think the best route would be getting someone like Kessel, but hopefully we can both improve our current team and find a way to prepare for the future.

The team may be all in and competitive, but I think we're still due for a tumble in the standings unless we end up getting both Duchene and someone like Kessel. The way I look at it is, if we're already going to drop in the standings next we should build towards our future while maintaining the majority of our core.

I see where you're coming from with wanting a known entity coming back though, preferably we'd move whomever we do for an already drafted prospect, I just think a top ten pick is more than Ellis is worth currently.
 
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Legionnaire11

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Man after seeing Skinner and buffalo are close to a 8 year 72 million dollar contract my hope for getting Duchene took a major hit. Before hearing that I was in the thinking there was a 50-60% chance to land him now hearing that I think poile panics at the cost now I'm at around 5-10% chance. I just cant see poile paying 9-10 million for a 2c or 1b however you look at it. Unless Duchene takes a 8-8.5 million a year I think we miss out on Duchene

It was always going to cost $9M+ for Duchene unless he's just dead set on playing in Nashville. And it has seemed in the past like he really wanted to come here, but idk how this past season affected the Preds as a free agent destination. Despite the division title, it didn't look like a team that anyone would willingly sign up for.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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I agree with all the pros and cons back on forth on dealing Ellis. It's why I think you need to just lay out everything that's actually on the table. It'll become one of those big murder investigation wall charts with strings all over taking up half of Poile's office.


But gradually you'll hit dates - draft, free agency, signing player X - which eliminate some of the threads. And you'll make phone calls to the other teams and find out what's really possible and what's just fantasy.

This forum is our wall chart. There are good ideas and good arguments back and forth on many of these things, but we need a domino or two to start falling soon. But hey, it's almost June 1st, so it's getting closer.

The one thing I still can't shake on the Ellis front, however... are we wasting our time with the whole idea? Because my real fear is that Poile simply won't be willing to trade him. Full stop. He signed him to a lifetime contract in good faith, and no matter how the pros to trading him stack up - and I see A LOT of potential pros to trading him - are we more like patients in our asylum dorm room building a crazy wall chart than we are like ace detectives trying to crack the case? :eek:
 

Bringer of Jollity

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I agree with all the pros and cons back on forth on dealing Ellis. It's why I think you need to just lay out everything that's actually on the table. It'll become one of those big murder investigation wall charts with strings all over taking up half of Poile's office.


But gradually you'll hit dates - draft, free agency, signing player X - which eliminate some of the threads. And you'll make phone calls to the other teams and find out what's really possible and what's just fantasy.

This forum is our wall chart. There are good ideas and good arguments back and forth on many of these things, but we need a domino or two to start falling soon. But hey, it's almost June 1st, so it's getting closer.

The one thing I still can't shake on the Ellis front, however... are we wasting our time with the whole idea? Because my real fear is that Poile simply won't be willing to trade him. Full stop. He signed him to a lifetime contract in good faith, and no matter how the pros to trading him stack up - and I see A LOT of potential pros to trading him - are we more like patients in our asylum dorm room building a crazy wall chart than we are like ace detectives trying to crack the case? :eek:

Well, really, this is all a waste of our time (unless Poile has enough spare time to fantasy GM on message boards). I think the possibility of trading Ellis has a better chance of occurring than us acquiring most of a new 1st line or some of the other proposals that get tossed around, but who knows?
 

GeauxPreds1

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I agree with all the pros and cons back on forth on dealing Ellis. It's why I think you need to just lay out everything that's actually on the table. It'll become one of those big murder investigation wall charts with strings all over taking up half of Poile's office.


But gradually you'll hit dates - draft, free agency, signing player X - which eliminate some of the threads. And you'll make phone calls to the other teams and find out what's really possible and what's just fantasy.

This forum is our wall chart. There are good ideas and good arguments back and forth on many of these things, but we need a domino or two to start falling soon. But hey, it's almost June 1st, so it's getting closer.

The one thing I still can't shake on the Ellis front, however... are we wasting our time with the whole idea? Because my real fear is that Poile simply won't be willing to trade him. Full stop. He signed him to a lifetime contract in good faith, and no matter how the pros to trading him stack up - and I see A LOT of potential pros to trading him - are we more like patients in our asylum dorm room building a crazy wall chart than we are like ace detectives trying to crack the case? :eek:

I say the chances on trading Ellis is slim to none even though he probably is our worst defenseman in the top 4. Poile will honor that contract and will suffer because of it maybe not now but 8 years was to long to give him. And at 6.25 that was just to much for a #4. Yea he'll be our #3 after we trade subban which well end up doing but fabbro will pass him either this year or next in my opinion. Back to subban I honestly think this is the worst time to trade subban. Coming off a bad year injury or not and making 9 a year for 3 more years will drop his value to an all time low. This guy was a Norris finalist just last year to dump him low is the wrong move unless the return is worth it. Hopefully Poile realizes that watching Ellis this year that he isnt the defenseman you wanna be married to for 8 more years. Thats all we can hope for now even though we know deep down it aint gonna happen
 

Porter Stoutheart

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I say the chances on trading Ellis is slim to none even though he probably is our worst defenseman in the top 4. Poile will honor that contract and will suffer because of it maybe not now but 8 years was to long to give him. And at 6.25 that was just to much for a #4. Yea he'll be our #3 after we trade subban which well end up doing but fabbro will pass him either this year or next in my opinion. Back to subban I honestly think this is the worst time to trade subban. Coming off a bad year injury or not and making 9 a year for 3 more years will drop his value to an all time low. This guy was a Norris finalist just last year to dump him low is the wrong move unless the return is worth it. Hopefully Poile realizes that watching Ellis this year that he isnt the defenseman you wanna be married to for 8 more years. Thats all we can hope for now even though we know deep down it aint gonna happen
Totally agree with all this.

The only caveat is that Subban has to Get Serious about his hockey. Or be healthy. Whatever. Subban can be our best player. But he sure fell an awful long way off that last season. I don't think we as intrepid internet message boarders have the Inside Scoop on Subban to the extent we'd need to in order to properly evaluate this dossier. Alas.
 

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