Proposal: Who is first to go

[GeauxPreds1]

Poile said there will be changes. Which will be the first player to go?

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[AdmiralsFan24]

Think it's someone like Bonino, a redundant player with the Stanley Cup pedigreez that some team will fall in love with for like a 4th or 5th, we might retain a little but the deal will mainly be to clear cap space.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Poile said there may be changes all around, then kept the whole coaching staff. I wouldn't get my hopes up.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It's hard to imagine a change. If there is an off-season move, I go with Subban just because he's maybe not really "Poile's baby"... or at least there's presumably no personal relationship there.

Josi and Ellis - no way can I see them move. Turris? Highly unlikely (tho' I wish it were otherwise). Granlund is new and I don't know how they move him as an impending UFA - or maybe he's secretly the first to go - just at the trade deadline when we never found a fix and are sellers. :S

I think we WILL add a 3rd assistant coach. It wouldn't shock me if that's the only real change. That and cosmetics on the ice with different line combos and system.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

if we sign duchene, it's turris. with an outside chance of bonino.

i think we miss out on duchene because im a pessimistic and i will say subban will be first traded by poile. i would prefer it be ellis.

i could see granlund being shipped after his "insert adjective to describe his mostly invisible" stint with us.

 

[jumb0]

A lot of variables at play. If we get Duchene you have to assume it's Turris or Bonino.
If we don't get Duchene it's probably Subban or maybe Ellis

 

[PredsV82]

A lot of variables at play. If we get Duchene you have to assume it's Turris or Bonino.
If we don't get Duchene it's probably Subban or maybe Ellis

Thing is we wont knowing we are getting Duchene until after the draft. I would expect the trade market to be hottest right before and at the draft

And if we do sign Duchene before making any trades everyone will know we have to dump cap and returns will be minimized

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Thing is we wont knowing we are getting Duchene until after the draft. I would expect the trade market to be hottest right before and at the draft

And if we do sign Duchene before making any trades everyone will know we have to dump cap and returns will be minimized

So we dump turris before or at the draft then

 

[PredsV82]

So we dump turris before or at the draft then

We do if we feel confident we can get Duchene. But no way do we give up our 2C without a definite replacement

 

[GeauxPreds1]

We do if we feel confident we can get Duchene. But no way do we give up our 2C without a definite replacement

Granlund can play 2c if need be.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Granlund can play 2c if need be.

The same Granlund that scored at a worse pace during his time with the Preds, makes a fraction less and will be looking for a pay increase at the end of next season? What could go wrong?

 

[GeauxPreds1]

The same Granlund that scored at a worse pace during his time with the Preds, makes a fraction less and will be looking for a pay increase at the end of next season? What could go wrong?

Ok lets keep the guy who has been soft and loses the puck when touched for almost 2 seasons now. And lets judge a guy that has a small sample size in granlund here. I said if need be we can play granlund. That's if we don't get Duchene. Or we can keep turris and he has around the same horrible season and he becomes the next lucic

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Ok lets keep the guy who has been soft and loses the puck when touched for almost 2 seasons now. And lets judge a guy that has a small sample size in granlund here. I said if need be we can play granlund. That's if we don't get Duchene. Or we can keep turris and he has around the same horrible season and he becomes the next lucic

The sample size is all we have to indicate how he's going to perform with this roster and guy was equally soft and turnover prone in that time. PV82's point is valid, you don't shitcan a 2C with term after a bad season (where he was mostly injured) if you aren't certain you have an upgrade to replace him. We strike out on Duchene and Granlund continues with similar form to the sample size then we've succeeded in weakening the team and wasting an asset while his value was at his lowest.

And I'm not buying the revisionist narrative that's become popular about Turris' first season here. Yes, he tailed off in the second part of his stint, yes he was unimpressive in the playoffs, but his overall production (and pace with the Preds) puts him a few points off of Johansen for the season. His play was more than acceptable in the regular season.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

The sample size is all we have to indicate how he's going to perform with this roster and guy was equally soft and turnover prone in that time. PV82's point is valid, you don't ****can a 2C with term after a bad season (where he was mostly injured) if you aren't certain you have an upgrade to replace him. We strike out on Duchene and Granlund continues with similar form to the sample size then we've succeeded in weakening the team and wasting an asset while his value was at his lowest.

And I'm not buying the revisionist narrative that's become popular about Turris' first season here. Yes, he tailed off in the second part of his stint, yes he was unimpressive in the playoffs, but his overall production (and pace with the Preds) puts him a few points off of Johansen for the season. His play was more than acceptable in the regular season.

Since getting 17 points in 17 games turris has got 53 points in 122 games including playoffs where he was horrible. He's gets touched and he loses the puck unlike joey. He doesn't play the pk unlike joey. He's not physical at all unlike joey. How do you go 53 games this year and only have 10 hits. He's been trending downwards since the 17 points in 17 games. I get he was hurt but even when healthy he didn't look good at all. He was a healthy scratch for 2 games this year because of his play

 

[Leignes]

Hi! Bruins fan here, I came to ask what would be the price for Viktor Arvidsson? I think he’s not for sale since he is on a long contract with almost 3 seasons in a row with 30 goals, but just asking.

 

[Gh24]

Hi! Bruins fan here, I came to ask what would be the price for Viktor Arvidsson? I think he’s not for sale since he is on a long contract with almost 3 seasons in a row with 30 goals, but just asking.

We need more offense right now, not less, so the answer is too much for it to make any sense to trade for him I suppose. Four more years on a 4.25M contract, a heart and soul player.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

We do if we feel confident we can get Duchene. But no way do we give up our 2C without a definite replacement

Well I think what this says is that it would be in our interests to get an early start on negotiating with Duchene if we can. One option is to just wait until the non-exclusivity window opens up - these days you get that early opportunity before July 1st - but iirc that is just around June 25? So that's still AFTER the draft.

What would be really slick would be to trade Turris to Columbus for Duchene's negotiating rights even sooner... I mean, Columbus ought to be feeling some pain if they lose Duchene, Panarin, and Bobrovsky, right? They should have a combination of cap space and need which might make Turris a fallback option for them? Viqsi? If Poile pulled that stunt, wow.

 

[PredsV82]

Again, you only do that if you KNOW Duchene will sign. And if you're Duchene, why would you not wait and listen to what gets offered by other teams?

I'd say there is a 0.001% chance of that happening.

Besides, if CBJ wants Turris after Duchene is gone, trade him for assets after Duchene leaves not before.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Again, you only do that if you KNOW Duchene will sign. And if you're Duchene, why would you not wait and listen to what gets offered by other teams?

I'd say there is a 0.001% chance of that happening.

Besides, if CBJ wants Turris after Duchene is gone, trade him for assets after Duchene leaves not before.

Yep. UFA rights trades are usually for mid-round picks. Regardless of what the board currently believes, Turris is definitely worth more than that. This would be poor asset management. If you are intent on trading Turris, sign Duchene first and then trade Turris for the best return you can get.

 

[Soundgarden]

Hi! Bruins fan here, I came to ask what would be the price for Viktor Arvidsson? I think he’s not for sale since he is on a long contract with almost 3 seasons in a row with 30 goals, but just asking.

Pastrnak. 100% serious.

 

[Viqsi]

What would be really slick would be to trade Turris to Columbus for Duchene's negotiating rights even sooner... I mean, Columbus ought to be feeling some pain if they lose Duchene, Panarin, and Bobrovsky, right? They should have a combination of cap space and need which might make Turris a fallback option for them? Viqsi? If Poile pulled that stunt, wow.

Not going to happen. JK is definitely trying to keep Duchene; he worked out really well up here. The rights for either of the Russians might be available, but not Duchene.

Turris as a fallback position might work, but it'd be in late July or August, not June. (And if that comes up for discussion on the trade mains, expect to see a lot of proposals including Alex Wennberg.)

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yep. UFA rights trades are usually for mid-round picks. Regardless of what the board currently believes, Turris is definitely worth more than that. This would be poor asset management. If you are intent on trading Turris, sign Duchene first and then trade Turris for the best return you can get.

If you sign Duchene first, you are probably giving up at least a mid-round pick just to move Turris.

Which would be ok too. A mid-round pick in either direction is not really significant. Signing Duchene is the main thing.

 

[Scoresberg]

Turris is as soft as butter but Duchene won't make much difference. He won't be a 70 point guy, he'll max out at 55 under this system and coaching staff.

Turris was and is a big problem for this team but even bigger is the coaching staff and the system we run. With that you can bring in Patrick Kane, and he probably wouldn't be point per game player here.

 

[Montross]

Turris is as soft as butter but Duchene won't make much difference. He won't be a 70 point guy, he'll max out at 55 under this system and coaching staff.

Turris was and is a big problem for this team but even bigger is the coaching staff and the system we run. With that you can bring in Patrick Kane, and he probably wouldn't be point per game player here.

Completely disagree. Give me Granlund-Duchene-whoever and Duchene will hit 70 points here next season.

 

[Scoresberg]

Completely disagree. Give me Granlund-Duchene-whoever and Duchene will hit 70 points here next season.

Turris' points from 2013-2014 to 2017-2018 with Ottawa (adjusted 82 game pace)

2013-2014: 82 gp / 57 p
2014-2015: 82 gp / 64p
2015-2016: 57 gp / 30 p ~ 82 gp / 53 p
2016-2017: 78 gp / 55p ~ 82 gp / 58 p
2017-2018: 11 gp / 9 p ~ 82 gp / 67 p

-> so his average point total per season in this adjusted scenario: 60 p per season.

With Nashville:

2017-2018: 65 gp / 42 p ~ 82 gp / 53 p
2018-2019: 55 gp / 23 p ~ 82 gp / 34 p

-> average: 44 p

So a quarter drop-off in production in Nashville, 16 points per year and from a low-end 1C to near cap-dump bad 2C.

And the list can go on, Granlund went from a 70 p guy in Minnesota to a ~ 25 p pace guy in Nashville. Simmonds had one goal in his stint here and looked absolutely awful.

Duchene is better than Turris but when we made the trade for Turris, they weren't that far off. His value only dropped when he came here and sucked ass since the hot streak he had in the beginning.

Duchene since 2013-2014:

2013-2014: 71 gp / 70 p ~ 82 gp / 81 p
2014-2015: 82 gp / 55 p
2015-2016: 76 gp / 59 p ~ 82 gp / 64 p
2016-2017: 77 gp / 41 p ~ 82 gp / 44 p
2017-2018: 82 gp / 59 p
2018-2019: 73 gp / 70 p ~ 82 gp / 79 p

-> average: 64 p

AND Duchene was only PPG in his contract years, which makes him a questionable UFA target. Turris had 57 and 64 point years just after he signed with Ottawa.

BUT, I'm going to blame the system and the coaching staff for now, it can't be a coincidence that pretty much every player who comes here stagnates in production or falls off mightily. Look at Joey, a 70 p guy, 30 goal scorer in Columbus, 55-60 p guy in Nashville, not even sniffing 20 goals.

There's gotta be something there. I wouldn't be disappointed if we jettisoned Turris and signed Duchene, but he'd most likely be a 55-60 p guy at best here.