Proposal: Who is first to go

[GeauxPreds1]

Turris' points from 2013-2014 to 2017-2018 with Ottawa (adjusted 82 game pace)

2013-2014: 82 gp / 57 p
2014-2015: 82 gp / 64p
2015-2016: 57 gp / 30 p ~ 82 gp / 53 p
2016-2017: 78 gp / 55p ~ 82 gp / 58 p
2017-2018: 11 gp / 9 p ~ 82 gp / 67 p

-> so his average point total per season in this adjusted scenario: 60 p per season.

With Nashville:

2017-2018: 65 gp / 42 p ~ 82 gp / 53 p
2018-2019: 55 gp / 23 p ~ 82 gp / 34 p

-> average: 44 p

So a quarter drop-off in production in Nashville, 16 points per year and from a low-end 1C to near cap-dump bad 2C.

And the list can go on, Granlund went from a 70 p guy in Minnesota to a ~ 25 p pace guy in Nashville. Simmonds had one goal in his stint here and looked absolutely awful.

Duchene is better than Turris but when we made the trade for Turris, they weren't that far off. His value only dropped when he came here and sucked ass since the hot streak he had in the beginning.

Duchene since 2013-2014:

2013-2014: 71 gp / 70 p ~ 82 gp / 81 p
2014-2015: 82 gp / 55 p
2015-2016: 76 gp / 59 p ~ 82 gp / 64 p
2016-2017: 77 gp / 41 p ~ 82 gp / 44 p
2017-2018: 82 gp / 59 p
2018-2019: 73 gp / 70 p ~ 82 gp / 79 p

-> average: 64 p

AND Duchene was only PPG in his contract years, which makes him a questionable UFA target. Turris had 57 and 64 point years just after he signed with Ottawa.

BUT, I'm going to blame the system and the coaching staff for now, it can't be a coincidence that pretty much every player who comes here stagnates in production or falls off mightily. Look at Joey, a 70 p guy, 30 goal scorer in Columbus, 55-60 p guy in Nashville, not even sniffing 20 goals.

There's gotta be something there. I wouldn't be disappointed if we jettisoned Turris and signed Duchene, but he'd most likely be a 55-60 p guy at best here.

You would think if fans can put numbers to show how bad players do in lavy's system now that Poile would be able to. But somehow he's happy with him and his staff after looking unimpressive all year. I believe that our coaching is our main problem.

 

[101st_fan]

Now run the comparative of 2018-19 between Joey and Turris ... either goals/game or goals/60 .. same for primary and secondary assists. I'll save you the homework and searching here for the answers ... the glaring issue statistically for Turris was in secondary assists at ES. These things tend to be much more nuanced than the boards are willing to look ... so back to "(insert player here) sucks" and "(insert player here) is untradeable" rants.

I have some beer brewed by Benedictine monks to enjoy and a long weekend in the Netherlands to plan out.

 

[Scoresberg]

Now run the comparative of 2018-19 between Joey and Turris ... either goals/game or goals/60 .. same for primary and secondary assists. I'll save you the homework and searching here for the answers ... the glaring issue statistically for Turris was in secondary assists at ES. These things tend to be much more nuanced than the boards are willing to look ... so back to "(insert player here) sucks" and "(insert player here) is untradeable" rants.

I have some beer brewed by Benedictine monks to enjoy and a long weekend in the Netherlands to plan out.

Yeah, I wasn't calling out Turris alone but more the coaching staff and the system they run.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The coaching system is one thing. Turris is another animal IMO. He's weak and ineffective independent of systematic issues. Duchene, to my eyeballs, is at least aggressive on the attack and tends to drive the play. Sometimes that results in points, sometimes it doesn't. Turris can keep up with 2nd line talent in the NHL, but it's his wingers who drive his points, not him.

 

[101st_fan]

Yeah, I wasn't calling out Turris alone but more the coaching staff and the system they run.

Then explain the offensive differences between 2017-18 and 2018-19 when it was the same coaches, system, and (for the most part) players ... the PP% dropping over 8% from one season to the next, the drop of goals per game by 3/10ths, yet getting more shots per game.

 

[Scoresberg]

Then explain the offensive differences between 2017-18 and 2018-19 when it was the same coaches, system, and (for the most part) players ... the PP% dropping over 8% from one season to the next, the drop of goals per game by 3/10ths, yet getting more shots per game.

Really, it all comes down to the powerplay, it affects the top players' confidence and it reflected to the offensive play of the whole team. Past years, our d-men have been the ones who have gotten a lot of points, 17-18 when we won the President's our top scorer was Forsberg with 63 (?) points. It simply has run its course and the rest of the NHL has caught up. Ellis looked garbage for the most part and Subban wasn't his former self until it was the playoffs. Josi was fine and Ekholm is horse defensively but nothing much offensively.

Especially under Lavy we have never relied on our top guys to be PPG players and I'm saying if we were to bring in Duchene, why would he be a 70 p guy in our second line when our top line guys haven't been 70 p guys, either?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think the number of points the player gets is necessarily the most important thing. However the lineup shakes out, we should still have 4 lines that bring something, and we've seen in the playoff and Pres Trophy runs the years before that it isn't strictly necessary to have big point producers to be successful. But whatever points certain players get, they can be a lot more effective than they were this year. It could be Duchene gets 55 pts or it could be he gets 70 pts, and the difference could be largely the PP or how the system is run, and it doesn't make Duchene any more or less worth signing.

One option Duchene could bring is the chance to have co-1st lines. Granlund and Duchene are players of basically the same stature as our 1st line guys. Perhaps they can pick up the slack when JoFA is slumping, or perhaps they give options to break up JoFA which didn't seem as appetizing in the past.

Of course this feels like Tavares and Stone all over again. It made sense to pursue them too and we spilled a lot of electrons on those schemes. I hope they sign Duchene and are able to move one of the inefficient salaries to make room, but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[predfan98]

Then explain the offensive differences between 2017-18 and 2018-19 when it was the same coaches, system, and (for the most part) players ... the PP% dropping over 8% from one season to the next, the drop of goals per game by 3/10ths, yet getting more shots per game.

Lol. I have no stats so you can throw your hands up! 2017, we were just lucky, but sittting in the arena, you could subjectively feel it. Loose play, starting of unraveling...
2018, all those subjective feelings of “oh shit, we aren’t really this good, we’re loose and unstructured and undisciplined” came to sit in the arena and play out in statistics.
Their play showed someth8ng was wrong, there was no heart no team passion.
Poile not firing Lavy will be his worst legacy as a GM.
I hope I’m wrong.
I love your stats, by the way. Have fun as you wander!

 

[herzausstein]

First considerations go to those that will ufa after the upcoming season
Josi, granlund, and smith will cost the most to keep. Obviously want to keep Josi unless the return was huge. If we keep granlund as 2RW, do we plan on paying smith 4.5+M on an extension to play 3RW? If that answer is no I say trade him out now or at the deadline. He hasn’t performed in the playoffs do trading him at the deadline wouldn’t be a killer.

After that consider the rest of the d group. Ellis and subban will probably be dangled and whoever gets best return is shipped out.

If we pick up duchene, bonino or turris gets traded. Turris would get a terrible return on investment because of his down year. Plus having him as 3C would allow for tolvanen to get sheltered time with a good playmaking C. I’d put Grimaldi on the other wing since he works hard like RV and could maybe recreate the jofa line dynamic. Similarly if turris can be traded for wennberg I’d go for that but still trade out bonino since that’s too much for a 4C.

Short version:
Smith out for picks/prospects
Duchene picked up with the cap space this creates + open cap space now
With duchene in tow, bonino/turris traded
Subban or Ellis out for best return possible hopefully a good forward upgrade
Grimaldi and sissons extended

 

[braindead]

I think it won’t be any of the suspects listed. More later on this but I think Bonino and Jarnkrok are most likely as we try to revamp our roster to add more fire and heart and grit at the same time that we try to jumpstart secondary scoring. Hook should have value, hopefully Bonino as well, for teams trying to find their own pieces.

 

[The Old Master]

We need more offense right now, not less.

would you be interested in kessel?

 

[PredsV82]

would you be interested in kessel?

Personally, no unless hes really cheap. Hes gonna be 32 by the start of next season with an 8 million dollar cap hit for 3 more years, and I worry that when he finally drops off its gonna be off a cliff(see, Neal, James)

 

[jumb0]

Personally, no unless hes really cheap. Hes gonna be 32 by the start of next season with an 8 million dollar cap hit for 3 more years, and I worry that when he finally drops off its gonna be off a cliff(see, Neal, James)

His cap hit is only 6.2 since Toronto retained 1.8

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

When I've watched Kessel - which isn't a lot, but still Pittsburgh finds a way onto TV fairly often and has a certain network profile - he looks pretty good to me. Dynamic, skilled, able to generate offense on his own, and very very effective on the PP. He doesn't look like he's slowing down at all. He also hasn't missed a game in like 9 years - no injuries that have set him back or caused premature aging or slowness?

32 might have been a problem for some players, but it's a little arbitrary to draw that line on everybody just because some players have started to decline at that age. Others haven't. I'd take Kessel. $6.8M is actually a bit of a bargain for the player he is today. Perfect fit for our needs. On the ice anyway. I suspect the off ice stuff is overblown as usual. Another guy who isn't some bland soldier who jumps when his coach says jump but instead has the creativity and vision to think outside the box on his own at times. If he's a little socially awkward, who cares. He's putting up some good numbers even while living perpetually in the doghouse. I'd be happy to see what he could do without that constant negativity pushed on him.

And worst case it's only a 3-year commit. So you have him at 32, 33, and 34. Then his deal is up, so it can't really hurt long-term if he does drop off a cliff. But more likely, it seems to me those are going to be years where he's setting up for his final contract, and if he wants another good contract at age 35 he's going to have to show well in those 3 years, he should have some motivation.

 

[The Old Master]

Personally, no unless hes really cheap. Hes gonna be 32 by the start of next season with an 8 million dollar cap hit for 3 more years, and I worry that when he finally drops off its gonna be off a cliff(see, Neal, James)

kessel is a freak of nature. his diet would kill most, doesn't "seem" to like training, yet , he never slows down, doesn't get hurt, just keeps scoring, and is a bit of a goofball.....as long as your not the coach you have to love him.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Not opposed to Kessel but not interested in paying a premium for him. A team feeling it's a positive move to give up a player with that production level raises a lot of red flags, and now it's happened twice.

 

[Soundgarden]

I'd be for Kessel as long as we'd part with Ellis, Subban or Turris+, depending on if we get Duchene or not. I wouldn't be down to move our big two prospects or our 1st.

Going for Kessel means a retool with another cup run with our current core. Having him and Granlund man the wings gives us a very good 2nd line on paper, whether they play up to their talent level remains to be seen.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think he's already in the discount bin. His contract status and refusal on the trade to Minnesota paints a pretty stark picture on his likely trade cost. Pittsburgh is a motivated seller. Kessel has them limited to 8 potential buyers and shown that he's going to stick with his contract rights. Some of those might be cities that are building with youth and would not be interested. So - as long as we're on his list anyway - I cannot imagine there is any premium involved.

As a fan I love the idea of moving Ellis for him. Use our weakest link on D to bolster the scoring, and get out from under the term on that contract. But at the same time I firmly do not believe Poile will move Ellis. And I don't see Pittsburgh going for Subban's contract. But maybe there is some other lesser package involving Jarnkrok and/or Smith that would work. It might seem a little too good to be true, but if they were going to take Zucker, I think it's clear a premium isn't required. I like Smith, but I can see Kessel as an upgrade worth pursuing.

 

[PredsV82]

Not opposed to Kessel but not interested in paying a premium for him. A team feeling it's a positive move to give up a player with that production level raises a lot of red flags, and now it's happened twice.

This is where I am. If we can get him for a modest price, it's worth the gamble. But if Pittsburgh is looking to shed salary, then we arent sending Subban, Ellis, or Turris their way.

Edit, is Kessels trade approval list known?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I think he's already in the discount bin. His contract status and refusal on the trade to Minnesota paints a pretty stark picture on his likely trade cost. Pittsburgh is a motivated seller. Kessel has them limited to 8 potential buyers and shown that he's going to stick with his contract rights. Some of those might be cities that are building with youth and would not be interested. So - as long as we're on his list anyway - I cannot imagine there is any premium involved.

As a fan I love the idea of moving Ellis for him. Use our weakest link on D to bolster the scoring, and get out from under the term on that contract. But at the same time I firmly do not believe Poile will move Ellis. And I don't see Pittsburgh going for Subban's contract. But maybe there is some other lesser package involving Jarnkrok and/or Smith that would work. It might seem a little too good to be true, but if they were going to take Zucker, I think it's clear a premium isn't required. I like Smith, but I can see Kessel as an upgrade worth pursuing.

I'd rather not trade one of the few 20 goal scorers we have, it seems a counter intuitive move if we're wanting more goal scoring. Kessel's goal scoring production is only 6-7 goals per year more over the past 5 seasons (points of course is a completely different matter).

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

This is where I am. If we can get him for a modest price, it's worth the gamble. But if Pittsburgh is looking to shed salary, then we arent sending Subban, Ellis, or Turris their way.

Edit, is Kessels trade approval list known?

Agreed.

I don't think Subban is really in the conversation. Ellis is a better fit with salary but they don't need him unless they ship Schultz (I'd have no interest in taking him back, we'd be locked out of free agency or probably have to give up Smith or Bonino as well). I also think Ellis is a more valuable piece than you see teams similarly handcuffed normally getting back, but I also don't see him as a cap dump/bad contract.

 

[The Old Master]

but if they were going to take Zucker, I think it's clear a premium isn't required. I like Smith, but I can see Kessel as an upgrade worth pursuing.

with zuck it was all about fit. phil likes to run his line, and that's not happing with sid or geno. he also didn't want to play on the3rd line = no place to play in the burgh. imo add to that because he's a bit of a goof his shelf life with the coach is short. you would probole need to move him at the trade deadline at the end of his contract.(his value would be high as a rental) zuck would be a better fit with sid/geno and maybe the key was we were getting rid of jj.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

with zuck it was all about fit. phil likes to run his line, and that's not happing with sid or geno. he also didn't want to play on the3rd line = no place to play in the burgh. imo add to that because he's a bit of a goof his shelf life with the coach is short. you would probole need to move him at the trade deadline at the end of his contract.(his value would be high as a rental) zuck would be a better fit with sid/geno and maybe the key was we were getting rid of jj.

Eh...maybe. He has a NTC and seems pretty particular, we would probably get equally stuck trying to move him (e.g. we would be limited to dealing with a single competitive team, which would kill the return).

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'd rather not trade one of the few 20 goal scorers we have, it seems a counter intuitive move if we're wanting more goal scoring. Kessel's goal scoring production is only 6-7 goals per year more over the past 5 seasons (points of course is a completely different matter).

Points ARE a completely different matter because that's where Kessel shows that he drives the offense. I like Smith, but he doesn't make a lot happen out there on his own. Smith works hard and is a very fine complementary player who I'd normally like to retain. But Kessel's offensive advantage isn't just the extra 6-7 goals he puts in directly, it's also the extra 30 on top of that he creates with his overall skillset and the attention he demands from defenders. And his track record on the PP is very strong, at a time when our team desperately needs improvement in that area.

I don't see how swapping them could be perceived as a counter-intuitive move at all. It's a clear upgrade, and no question whatsoever about that. It's like replacing Turris with Duchene. You get the better player if you can. I get that maybe some people develop a sentimental attachment to players who play here, or maybe don't watch any teams but our own and perhaps don't realize just how much better these other players are. But here's a case where a top talented player who could help us may be available at a discounted price. There's only so much gazing into the gift horse's mouth needed here.

Of course, we don't actually know if we're on Kessel's list or if Pittsburgh would really take Smith for him, those are just hypotheticals. But if you get that chance, you jump on it and don't look back!

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Points ARE a completely different matter because that's where Kessel shows that he drives the offense. I like Smith, but he doesn't make a lot happen out there on his own. Smith works hard and is a very fine complementary player who I'd normally like to retain. But Kessel's offensive advantage isn't just the extra 6-7 goals he puts in directly, it's also the extra 30 on top of that he creates with his overall skillset and the attention he demands from defenders. And his track record on the PP is very strong, at a time when our team desperately needs improvement in that area.

I don't see how swapping them could be perceived as a counter-intuitive move at all. It's a clear upgrade, and no question whatsoever about that. It's like replacing Turris with Duchene. You get the better player if you can. I get that maybe some people develop a sentimental attachment to players who play here, or maybe don't watch any teams but our own and perhaps don't realize just how much better these other players are. But here's a case where a top talented player who could help us may be available at a discounted price. There's only so much gazing into the gift horse's mouth needed here.

Of course, we don't actually know if we're on Kessel's list or if Pittsburgh would really take Smith for him, those are just hypotheticals. But if you get that chance, you jump on it and don't look back!

It's not counter-intuitive to swap Smith for Kessel if that's what we are offered. I think it is counter-intuitive for us to selectively offer Smith for Kessel if straight goal-scoring is what we are looking for. I'm not sure if that makes any better sense. I'm definitely not disputing the relative worth, it's more just...if we want more goal scoring, we gain more by keeping Smith AND acquiring Kessel than swapping them.