Who can dethrone Jack Hughes?

[cleveland408]

He can dethrone himself.

Plenty of players look like they will be stars in their D-1 year only to have a less than stellar draft year. As was pointed above, there could also be an injury.

Let’s be honest, unless he decides to totally give up and just coast he’s going number 1 in the draft. There’s no way he doesn’t have an even better season this year.

 

[King'sPawn]

Let’s be honest, unless he decides to totally give up and just coast he’s going number 1 in the draft. There’s no way he doesn’t have an even better season this year.

I don't disagree that is the likely scenario. But there was a time Nolan Patrick was a sure fire #1. Nico Hischier wasn't even on anyone's radar. Nick Ebert was a top 5 pick his draft year before falling to the last pick.

The point is that a lot can happen in 10 months.

 

[Red Solo Cup]

This is a dumb discussion. Hughes tied matthews’ u-18 season totals in his u-17. Whether or not he plays wing or center isn’t particularly relevant in this situation because when you have a kid with this much talent and offensive upside, you take him. He is essentially guaranteed to be a Kane clone at the least and just short of McDavid (talent and skill wise) at his ceiling. If a team doesn’t take him because he “won’t play center at the NHL level, they will quickly regret it IMO.

Not to mention the fact that if you are ending up as a bottom feeding team in 2019 (bad enough to get 1st overall) it’s very likely that you will be in the bottom 10 the year after. 2020 is looking good in terms of centers. Draft a center then.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This is a dumb discussion. Hughes tied matthews’ u-18 season totals in his u-17. Whether or not he plays wing or center isn’t particularly relevant in this situation because when you have a kid with this much talent and offensive upside, you take him. He is essentially guaranteed to be a Kane clone at the least and just short of McDavid (talent and skill wise) at his ceiling. If a team doesn’t take him because he “won’t play center at the NHL level, they will quickly regret it IMO.

Not to mention the fact that if you are ending up as a bottom feeding team in 2019 (bad enough to get 1st overall) it’s very likely that you will be in the bottom 10 the year after. 2020 is looking good in terms of centers. Draft a center then.

Can I get your full 2020 list?

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

I think the answer is nobody.

The only player that has a chance would be Bowen Byram, as he is the top rated D. If he blows up the WHL and WJC, maybe he jumps to #1, but won't happen. I can't see any forwards passin JH.

 

[Red Solo Cup]

Can I get your full 2020 list?

Was this supposed to be a snide remark or an actual question. I will make a list of centers but I’m not gonna send a whole draft order.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Was this supposed to be a snide remark or an actual question. I will make a list of centers but I’m not gonna send a whole draft order.

Snide remark.

No one knows yet what the centers in 2020 will be like.

 

[93LEAFS]

This is a dumb discussion. Hughes tied matthews’ u-18 season totals in his u-17. Whether or not he plays wing or center isn’t particularly relevant in this situation because when you have a kid with this much talent and offensive upside, you take him. He is essentially guaranteed to be a Kane clone at the least and just short of McDavid (talent and skill wise) at his ceiling. If a team doesn’t take him because he “won’t play center at the NHL level, they will quickly regret it IMO.

Not to mention the fact that if you are ending up as a bottom feeding team in 2019 (bad enough to get 1st overall) it’s very likely that you will be in the bottom 10 the year after. 2020 is looking good in terms of centers. Draft a center then.

One, I'd say its pretty early to start projecting 2020. The two best prospects for that draft at the moment are both wingers right now in Lafreniere and Holz. Most of the centers you are waiting to see if they can successfully play it at the Major Junior level like Byfield, Vierling, and Stranges.

The most hyped kid entering the WHL is a defender (Guhle) and same with the USNTDP (Kleven). Although, the only two prospects who have proven themselves as legit so far are Lafreniere and Holz. Justin Barron had a promising year also, but he's a defender. The top kid entering the Q is Hendrix Lapierre, who is currently a center but is on the smaller side and could be moved to the wing.

I agree with you premise about Hughes, but I don't see how 2020 is looking deep on centers. That projection is relying heavily on kids who haven't played above AAA or High School hockey at the NA level. In Europe, the only person I can think of doing well at a U-20 level is Holz. No one else played high-level juniors in either Finland or Sweden for more than like 3 games and if they did they didn't put up points.

One funny thing I'd point out. Teams that have drafted 1st in the last 2 years have both made the playoffs the next year. The only team since 2013 to repeat in the top 10 was the Oilers. Avs, Leafs, and Devils all made the Playoffs, while the Panthers drafted 11th the next year. Now, I don't expect the Sabres to make the playoffs this year, but teams have turned around quickly recently. Although, its unclear if any of these turn arounds will be sustained, as the Leafs are the only one of the four to make the playoffs the year after making the playoffs (unclear with the Devils), Avs regressed heavily, and Florida improved but then regressed to missing the playoffs 2 years in a row.

 

[Red Solo Cup]

Snide remark.

No one knows yet what the centers in 2020 will be like.

Thats why I said "looking good in terms of centers". I know nothing is set in stone but seeing some of the centers that have been drafted into the CHL recently, there are a few really good potential pieces there. The point is that when you have Jack Hughes on the board you take him and worry about positional needs later IMO. You always draft best player available unless you're a fringe lottery team and somehow end up in the top 3. He is currently far and above the best player in this draft and there are no signs of him slowing down.

 

[Red Solo Cup]

One, I'd say its pretty early to start projecting 2020. The two best prospects for that draft at the moment are both wingers right now in Lafreniere and Holz. Most of the centers you are waiting to see if they can successfully play it at the Major Junior level like Byfield, Vierling, and Stranges.

The most hyped kid entering the WHL is a defender (Guhle) and same with the USNTDP (Kleven). Although, the only two prospects who have proven themselves as legit so far are Lafreniere and Holz. Justin Barron had a promising year also, but he's a defender. The top kid entering the Q is Hendrix Lapierre, who is currently a center but is on the smaller side and could be moved to the wing.

I agree with you premise about Hughes, but I don't see how 2020 is looking deep on centers. That projection is relying heavily on kids who haven't played above AAA or High School hockey at the NA level. In Europe, the only person I can think of doing well at a U-20 level is Holz. No one else played high-level juniors in either Finland or Sweden for more than like 3 games and if they did they didn't put up points.

One funny thing I'd point out. Teams that have drafted 1st in the last 2 years have both made the playoffs the next year. The only team since 2013 to repeat in the top 10 was the Oilers. Avs, Leafs, and Devils all made the Playoffs, while the Panthers drafted 11th the next year. Now, I don't expect the Sabres to make the playoffs this year, but teams have turned around quickly recently. Although, its unclear if any of these turn arounds will be sustained, as the Leafs are the only one of the four to make the playoffs the year after making the playoffs (unclear with the Devils), Avs regressed heavily, and Florida improved but then regressed to missing the playoffs 2 years in a row.

I know its early, simply said "looking good in terms of centers". A lot can change, I know, but the whole point was to say that you draft Hughes and worry about a center after. (Not intended to come off in a argumentative way)

 

[teravaineSAROS]

As it was with Matthews but Laine gave him a pretty good run in the end. I don't think no one expected but that before the season.

Also, I think even better example is Hischier overtaking Patrick. But then again Patrick wasn't as elite as the guys mentioned above.

Also in that 2016 draft Chychrun was supposed to go #2, Laine wasn't even top 5 in a lot of lists

 

[Daximus]

I think the answer is nobody.

The only player that has a chance would be Bowen Byram, as he is the top rated D. If he blows up the WHL and WJC, maybe he jumps to #1, but won't happen. I can't see any forwards passin JH.

Byram won't have a spot on the WJC roster. This defenceman class is pretty weak. He likely wouldn't beat out Bocuhard, Hughes, Dobson or Boqvist in last years draft. Don't get me wrong he's good but I don't see any high calibre dmen in this draft yet. Some could have a good summer and rise to the occasion but I'd say there is less than a 5% chance that any dman in this class will challenge Hughes.

 

[Daximus]

Also in that 2016 draft Chychrun was supposed to go #2, Laine wasn't even top 5 in a lot of lists

Yeah but Dahlin, Matthews, McDavid, MacKinnon have all gone wire to wire as projected #1's. It's typically weaker projected #1's like Patrick, Bennet that have issues holding onto the top spot. Hughes is in the former tier.

 

[PWJunior]

Byram won't have a spot on the WJC roster. This defenceman class is pretty weak. He likely wouldn't beat out Bocuhard, Hughes, Dobson or Boqvist in last years draft. Don't get me wrong he's good but I don't see any high calibre dmen in this draft yet. Some could have a good summer and rise to the occasion but I'd say there is less than a 5% chance that any dman in this class will challenge Hughes.

I get the same impression that this class is very weak on defense. The strength is clearly up front with a strong center crop. Just like this past draft wasn't the year to go looking for a center, next year won't be the year to go looking for a defenseman.

If there is a challenger that emerges, it'll be one of the many talented centers ranked behind Hughes.

 

[IceCold]

Time will tell. Perhaps the Hlinka Gretzky tournament will have a star emerge.

 

[Mickey Marner]

No one, Hughes is the real deal. The media will probably try to spin it into a tighter race than it is. From what I've seen, you'd be nuts to pass on this kid.

 

[Henkka]

It's a bit ridiculous 11 months before the draft there's an undisputed number one. I think there's a chance for Kakko or even Turcotte.

It has been like this for 3/4 latest drafts. Laine came close to push Matthews down, but only came close.

2015 McDavid was obvious
2016 Matthews (Laine)
2017 Hischier came behind of Patrick thanks to his injuries.
2018 Dahlin
2019 Hughes

I remember this Dahlin-talk was going on already when he was 16-year old.

2013 has been most interesting, debatable draft. Very strong TOP4.

 

[kroypuck]

I don't disagree that is the likely scenario. But there was a time Nolan Patrick was a sure fire #1. Nico Hischier wasn't even on anyone's radar. Nick Ebert was a top 5 pick his draft year before falling to the last pick.

The point is that a lot can happen in 10 months.

His team is just so good that I cannot see this happening although its happened in the past. He's playing with top tier players in their draft year and it only makes him look better.

I mean look at their powerplay..Hughes, Turcotte, Caufield, Boldy,and York. Probably all first rounders.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It would take a ridiculous season from Kakko, Turcotte, or Newhook. They're the only 3 with the upside to dethrone him and they're all still very far off right now.



My guess is Hughes runs away with #1, Turcotte separates himself as #2, and then you flip a coin between Kakko and Newhook for 3/4

 

[Daximus]

It would take a ridiculous season from Kakko, Turcotte, or Newhook. They're the only 3 with the upside to dethrone him and they're all still very far off right now.



My guess is Hughes runs away with #1, Turcotte separates himself as #2, and then you flip a coin between Kakko and Newhook for 3/4

Yeah a lot will depend on international play as well. Newhook has zero shot of playing at the WJC and his team isn't exactly a powerhouse in the BCHL. Newhook will have to have a great season to keep up.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah but Dahlin, Matthews, McDavid, MacKinnon have all gone wire to wire as projected #1's. It's typically weaker projected #1's like Patrick, Bennet that have issues holding onto the top spot. Hughes is in the former tier.

Bennett didn't enter the year as a projected 1. It was pretty much a 3 horse race between Ekblad, Reinhart and Nylander. MacKinnon and Jones was a bit of a dogfight all year, with them switching spots a couple times.

The most notable case of a highly hyped projected number 1 pick falling is Phil Kessel. Kessel was viewed as the American answer to Crosby, and in a tier of his own. Personality issues and a good but not great draft season pushed him down to 5. Angelo Esposito had a massive fall from a similar position in 2007.

 

[Daximus]

Bennett didn't enter the year as a projected 1. It was pretty much a 3 horse race between Ekblad, Reinhart and Nylander. MacKinnon and Jones was a bit of a dogfight all year, with them switching spots a couple times.

The most notable case of a highly hyped projected number 1 pick falling is Phil Kessel. Kessel was viewed as the American answer to Crosby, and in a tier of his own. Personality issues and a good but not great draft season pushed him down to 5. Angelo Esposito had a massive fall from a similar position in 2007.

I couldn't find much but it seems that Bennet was ranked #1 on a few prelim lists. Ekbld being the only other one ranked #1.

 

[93LEAFS]

I couldn't find much but it seems that Bennet was ranked #1 on a few prelim lists. Ekbld being the only other one ranked #1.

Weird, I don't remember him being #1 anywhere. On Future Considerations list, number 1 was Reinhart and he also was in the 2013 Black Book. Looking at an old thread, Bob McKenzie's first list had Reinhart and Ekblad tied. Bennett didn't even enter the year on McKenzie's top 10. I'm surprised you've seen places that had him #1.

 

[Daximus]

Weird, I don't remember him being #1 anywhere. On Future Considerations list, number 1 was Reinhart and he also was in the 2013 Black Book. Looking at an old thread, Bob McKenzie's first list had Reinhart and Ekblad tied. Bennett didn't even enter the year on McKenzie's top 10. I'm surprised you've seen places that had him #1.

I've been mostly looking at lists here. Majority of people had Ekblad.

 

[alko]

What if:

- Kakko scores 40 goals in Liiga
- Turcotte will be much more vissible on WJC or WCH U 18 and even make it to senior WCH
- Newhook is in BCHL, also that hit his reputation a little bit. But if he makes a 130 points, will be "The Man" in WJC
- someone in CHL leagues will score 70 goals

Its a pure fantasy, but even so. What if?