Speculation: Who are the Jets losing to expansion? Better question is who are we getting!

[Saidin]

The Jets don't do buy outs. Plus, buying him out means he's gone and they'd have to sign someone to replace him (you can't re-sign a player you bought out for 1 year) - or roll with Ben Chiarot as 2LD behind Morrissey? Yikes.

The way I see it is, would you rather lose Enstrom and say Dano, or lose Perrault or Lowry?

 

[GeorgeJETson]

If I was Chevy, I'd look into asking Enstrom to waive, and if not, then buy him out. But before I'd do that, I'd look into a LHD from another team that would make for a good 2LHD and trade for him (depending on the price of course).

Then you can protect 4+4+1: Scheifele, Little, Wheeler, Perrault, Buff, Trouba, Myers, LHD we just traded for, and Helle.

Of course, that is all moot if you can't get a good LHD via trade.

 

[Gm0ney]

The way I see it is, would you rather lose Enstrom and say Dano, or lose Perrault or Lowry?

It's an interesting way to look at it.

Enstrom + Copp for Perreault

or

Enstrom + Copp for Lowry

or

Copp + 2nd for Enstrom, Perreault and Lowry

 

[Saidin]

It's an interesting way to look at it.

Enstrom + Copp for Perreault

or

Enstrom + Copp for Lowry

or

Copp + 2nd for Enstrom, Perreault and Lowry

We know forsure a 2nd will accomplish that? Because if so, I'm all over that.

Here's the thing will a 2nd be enough to make LV ignore the extra Forwards in a 4+4 scenario, or does it need to make it the 7+3 for them to do that?

And I assume we can replace Copp with Dano in those equation.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Am I missing something? Why don't we just buy out Enstrom?

Buyout Details
SEASON SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT ACTUAL COST SAVINGS BUYOUT CAP HIT
2017-18 $4,600,000 $5,750,000 $1,533,333 $3,066,667 $2,683,333
2018-19 $0 $0 $1,533,333 -$1,533,333 $1,533,333

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/toby-enstrom#results

Were the Jets to buy him out, they'd expose him to unconditional waivers & either lose him to another team or, if no interest existed, be required to pay out 2/3's of his salary multiplied by double the outstanding term of his contract.

If taken via waivers we just compound the loss of players.

From an immediate perspective Enstom > Lowry/Armia/Copp/Dano. We're trading more away than any immediate benefit to keeping somebody else.

Long term? Dano has a high ceiling, the rest top out at 3rd liners. I think Enstrom still offers more. It's quite possible he resigns, albeit at a fraction of his current salary.

Your suggestion leaves us Entrom-less, leaves the Jets in need to acquire two LD before next season with less cap space to do so. The depth chart then becomes Morrissey, Stuart, Chiarot, Melchiori.

Would Vegas take Enstrom? Perhaps not. But there is the human element to all this. Toby certainly remains very valuable to this team and the organization has recently stood by him with regards to his personal family issue that was recently exposed as a girlfriend with cancer.

The Jets don't do buy outs. Plus, buying him out means he's gone and they'd have to sign someone to replace him (you can't re-sign a player you bought out for 1 year) - or roll with Ben Chiarot as 2LD behind Morrissey? Yikes.

I agree as described above.

 

[Gm0ney]

We know forsure a 2nd will accomplish that? Because if so, I'm all over that.

Here's the thing will a 2nd be enough to make LV ignore the extra Forwards in a 4+4 scenario, or does it need to make it the 7+3 for them to do that?

And I assume we can replace Copp with Dano in those equation.

Well, Vegas is probably willing to make a deal. Maybe they want some waiver-exempt AHL filler with upside in addition to the 2nd.

I don't know if Perreault or Lowry would be more attractive to Vegas...I'm thinking there will be a lot of grit available to them in the XD and not much Perreault-level offense, so I'd go 4-4-1, protect Perreault and offer Vegas that 2nd if they take Copp (or Dano if the Jets prefer...basically the deal then is a 2nd+Not-Lowry). It's definitely something worth exploring...

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Well, Vegas is probably willing to make a deal. Maybe they want some waiver-exempt AHL filler with upside in addition to the 2nd.

I don't know if Perreault or Lowry would be more attractive to Vegas...I'm thinking there will be a lot of grit available to them in the XD and not much Perreault-level offense, so I'd go 4-4-1, protect Perreault and offer Vegas that 2nd if they take Copp (or Dano if the Jets prefer...basically the deal then is a 2nd+Not-Lowry). It's definitely something worth exploring...

The general consensus is the Jets lose a forward. Once Vegas has that player, let them keep him.

I'm not paying a premium & putting effort into arranging a deal to retain an existing forward when Vegas will be sitting on ten to thirteen 2nd pairing defensemen, half of which will be traded to the highest bidder.

The Jets need to shore up on defensemen & the blow out sale begins in June.

Hopefully Chevy already has his cart outside the mall first in line, waiting for the doors to open.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fleury doesn't have a full NMC. He has a list of 18 teams he'd accept a trade to.

That said, I doubt Winnipeg is one of those 18.

Fleury has a modified NTC, 18 teams he can be traded to plus he has an NMC. Nothing about the NMC being limited.

This gets confusing because the 2 are not just variations on the same thing in spite of how the names sound.

I don't know absolutely 100% but I believe this means he must be protected for the XD.

Between that and the 18 team list is there any possibility of him actually being traded? Of the 18 teams, how many are going to want him and his cap hit and be able to arrange a trade? Pretty short list, I'm guessing. Of course the trade would be pretty cheap since Pitt's alternative is a buy out.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Fleury has a modified NTC, 18 teams he can be traded to plus he has an NMC. Nothing about the NMC being limited.

This gets confusing because the 2 are not just variations on the same thing in spite of how the names sound.

I don't know absolutely 100% but I believe this means he must be protected for the XD.

Between that and the 18 team list is there any possibility of him actually being traded? Of the 18 teams, how many are going to want him and his cap hit and be able to arrange a trade? Pretty short list, I'm guessing. Of course the trade would be pretty cheap since Pitt's alternative is a buy out.

I was responding to Whileee

Fleury has a NMC. Why would he waive it to come to Winnipeg? If he's smart he'll force the Pens to buy him out, pocket the buyout money, and then sign as a UFA with whichever team he prefers.

Fleury doesn't have a full NMC. He has a list of 18 teams he'd accept a trade to.

We're on the same page though. One of 18 teams are his destination with salary retention being a major factor.

 

[Whileee]

Well, Vegas is probably willing to make a deal. Maybe they want some waiver-exempt AHL filler with upside in addition to the 2nd.

I don't know if Perreault or Lowry would be more attractive to Vegas...I'm thinking there will be a lot of grit available to them in the XD and not much Perreault-level offense, so I'd go 4-4-1, protect Perreault and offer Vegas that 2nd if they take Copp (or Dano if the Jets prefer...basically the deal then is a 2nd+Not-Lowry). It's definitely something worth exploring...

I would bet Vegas takes Lowry over Perreault if they had the choice, but they won't. One of those two will be protected, and both will be if the Jets go 7-3-1. I think the Jets will try to get Enstrom to waive his NMC with the idea of trading one if their forwards to a team that has space to protect another forward. Extend Thorbs on a two way contract, expose Matthias, Thorbs, Stuart and Hutch.

 

[Whileee]

Fleury has a modified NTC, 18 teams he can be traded to plus he has an NMC. Nothing about the NMC being limited.

This gets confusing because the 2 are not just variations on the same thing in spite of how the names sound.

I don't know absolutely 100% but I believe this means he must be protected for the XD.

Between that and the 18 team list is there any possibility of him actually being traded? Of the 18 teams, how many are going to want him and his cap hit and be able to arrange a trade? Pretty short list, I'm guessing. Of course the trade would be pretty cheap since Pitt's alternative is a buy out.

My error. What are the odds that Fleury has Winnipeg (or Calgary) on his acceptable trade list? I just don't see a scenario that has MAF ending up in Winnipeg.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I would bet Vegas takes Lowry over Perreault if they had the choice, but they won't. One of those two will be protected, and both will be if the Jets go 7-3-1. I think the Jets will try to get Enstrom to waive his NMC with the idea of trading one if their forwards to a team that has space to protect another forward. Extend Thorbs on a two way contract, expose Matthias, Thorbs, Stuart and Hutch.

Enstrom, Myers, 4-4-1,7-3-1 have all been done to death.

This 2nd page has really went off the rails rehashing the same thoughts from the same people. I even joined in myself with regards to Enstrom, finding myself typing in previous responses verbatim to past posts.

Rather shocked to see 12,000 people looked at this over 24 hours, but few commented.

I'm hoping for some insight on:

1) Players likely unprotected from the other 29 teams
2) What 30 players Vegas then selects from the above list
3) What 7 players Vegas then trades to bring their roster to 23 & what they will be looking for to build their farm system
4) What Jets forwards/prospects we use as currency to trade for either the goaltenders & defensemen that Vegas has acquired.

So far we spoke of Pittsburgh, the Islanders & Minnesota. 26 more to go!

 

[KingBogo]

Were the Jets to buy him out, they'd expose him to unconditional waivers & either lose him to another team or, if no interest existed, be required to pay out 2/3's of his salary multiplied by double the outstanding term of his contract.

If taken via waivers we just compound the loss of players.

From an immediate perspective Enstom > Lowry/Armia/Copp/Dano. We're trading more away than any immediate benefit to keeping somebody else.

Long term? Dano has a high ceiling, the rest top out at 3rd liners. I think Enstrom still offers more. It's quite possible he resigns, albeit at a fraction of his current salary.

Anyways if clearing unconditional waivers the Jets then buy him out at 2/3'rds and then double that number times his remaining years under contract. (5.75) (.66) (2) = 7.6 million & as I understand it the Jets are still on the line for the full cap space amount of $5.75 million in 2017-2018.

Certainly not a good deal. If the Jets were so free to take on cap space they could have saved a lot of typing here & simply paid Datsyk's contract & grabbed Chychrun at last years draft.

Your suggestion leaves us Entrom-less, $5.75 down in cap space & then leaves the Jets in need to acquire two LD before next season with less cap space to do so. The depth chart then becomes Morrissey, Stuart, Chiarot, Melchiori.

Would Vegas take Enstrom? Perhaps not. But there is the human element to all this. Toby certainly remains very valuable to this team and the organization has recently stood by him with regards to his personal family issue that was recently exposed as a girlfriend with cancer.

From every perspective I fail to see that being an avenue the Jet's pursue



I agree as described above.

You have your buyout math wrong. The following from Capfriendly;

Toby Enstrom
Toby Enstrom is 32 years old at the date of the buyout
Salary remaining: $4,600,000 (with an additional $1,150,000 in signing bonuses remaining)
The buyout ratio is 2/3, which results in a total buyout cost of $3,066,667
There are 1 year remaining on this contract
The buyout will be spread out over 2 years
The annual buyout cost is $1,533,333

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/toby-enstrom

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Were the Jets to buy him out, they'd expose him to unconditional waivers & either lose him to another team or, if no interest existed, be required to pay out 2/3's of his salary multiplied by double the outstanding term of his contract.

Anyways if clearing unconditional waivers the Jets then buy him out at 2/3'rds and then double that number times his remaining years under contract. (5.75) (.66) (2) = 7.6 million & as I understand it the Jets are still on the line for the full cap space amount of $5.75 million in 2017-2018.

KingBogo started an explanation and I'll just expand on that.

Enstrom would not go on unconditional waivers. Unconditional waivers is only used in cases where both the player and team agree to terminate the contract. The player is then placed on unconditional waivers and if the player clears the contract is nullified with no cap penalty and player gets nothing. This is generally done in cases where a failed prospect wants to go back to Europe (see Axel Blomqvist from the Jets this year).

You are correct that most players before a buyout do need to go on waivers (not unconditional waivers, regular waivers). That is not the case for players with a no movement clause. In the case of buying out players with a no movement clause there is no waivers prior to the buyout.

Also KingBogo explained how the buyout money is based on salary remaining, not caphit. He also explained the numbers so I won't go over them again. Just of note that the salary paid out that KingBogo posted (~1.5mil per year for two years) would also be the caphit that the Jets would carry, not the 5.75 million.

 

[KingBogo]

If I was Chevy, I'd look into asking Enstrom to waive, and if not, then buy him out. But before I'd do that, I'd look into a LHD from another team that would make for a good 2LHD and trade for him (depending on the price of course).

Then you can protect 4+4+1: Scheifele, Little, Wheeler, Perrault, Buff, Trouba, Myers, LHD we just traded for, and Helle.

Of course, that is all moot if you can't get a good LHD via trade.

That sure would be a lot of players to give up to maneuver yourself for the expansion draft. Enstrom - lost buyout, player/pick/prospect lost to obtain 2LHD, and then #5 forward (MP or Lowry) lost in the actual expansion draft. If you are going to do that just protect 5 defenseman instead. That way you only lose the cost of 2LHD and one of MP or Lowry, you just don't get the choice of which one.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

You have your buyout math wrong. The following from Capfriendly;

Toby Enstrom
Toby Enstrom is 32 years old at the date of the buyout
Salary remaining: $4,600,000 (with an additional $1,150,000 in signing bonuses remaining)
The buyout ratio is 2/3, which results in a total buyout cost of $3,066,667
There are 1 year remaining on this contract
The buyout will be spread out over 2 years
The annual buyout cost is $1,533,333

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/toby-enstrom

I'm on cap friendly all the time, but never noticed the buyout calculator. Good to know!

Thanks for the heads up on the calculations I misunderstood & was doubling it, rather than dividing it as well as using full cap value.

420 got the better of my reading comprehension & math skills.

What happens to the signing bonus?

 

[10Ducky10]

I would bet Vegas takes Lowry over Perreault if they had the choice, but they won't. One of those two will be protected, and both will be if the Jets go 7-3-1. I think the Jets will try to get Enstrom to waive his NMC with the idea of trading one if their forwards to a team that has space to protect another forward. Extend Thorbs on a two way contract, expose Matthias, Thorbs, Stuart and Hutch.

Vegas still takes Dano.

 

[CaptainChef]

Enstrom, Myers, 4-4-1,7-3-1 have all been done to death.

This 2nd page has really went off the rails rehashing the same thoughts from the same people. I even joined in myself with regards to Enstrom, finding myself typing in previous responses verbatim to past posts.

Rather shocked to see 12,000 people looked at this over 24 hours, but few commented.

I'm hoping for some insight on:

1) Players likely unprotected from the other 29 teams
2) What 30 players Vegas then selects from the above list
3) What 7 players Vegas then trades to bring their roster to 23 & what they will be looking for to build their farm system
4) What Jets forwards/prospects we use as currency to trade for either the goaltenders & defensemen that Vegas has acquired.

So far we spoke of Pittsburgh, the Islanders & Minnesota. 26 more to go!

The thing that's stopping me from getting optimistic that we can pull off a trade with Vegas for a goalie or d-man that we urgently need. Or that we can pull off a trade or two to protect some of our eligible players from the XD. Whats stopping that is our ultra-conservative GM.

Perhaps I'm just being pessimistic. Or perhaps actions in the past have pretty much sealed where Chevy will go in the future. But, I'll believe any of that stuff when I see it. Until then, I'm not getting my hopes up enough to even dream what he might be able to do with the assets he currently has at his disposal.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

The thing that's stopping me from getting optimistic that we can pull off a trade with Vegas for a goalie or d-man that we urgently need. Or that we can pull off a trade or two to protect some of our eligible players from the XD. Whats stopping that is our ultra-conservative GM.

Perhaps I'm just being pessimistic. Or perhaps actions in the past have pretty much sealed where Chevy will go in the future. But, I'll believe any of that stuff when I see it. Until then, I'm not getting my hopes up enough to even dream what he might be able to do with the assets he currently has at his disposal.

Vegas certainly will need forwards prospects. Jets were just ranked #1 in the Hockey News Future Watch 2017. I seriously doubt if all of Petan, Copp, Connor, Roslovic, Harkins, Tanev, Lemieux, Lipon, De Leo & Kosmachuk remain in the Jets system. There's also afterthoughts like Lodge already signed beyond next season. The Moose has literally no room for them all.

I'd place a good wager at least one ends on Vegas in a post expansion draft move via a direct trade.

 

[KingBogo]

I'm on cap friendly all the time, but never noticed the buyout calculator. Good to know!

Thanks for the heads up on the calculations I misunderstood & was doubling it, rather than dividing it as well as using full cap value.

420 got the better of my reading comprehension & math skills.

What happens to the signing bonus?

My understanding is a signing bonus attached to any one season is just considered part of that season's salary. If Holden comes by he will be able to add further to those types of questions.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

My understanding is a signing bonus attached to any one season is just considered part of that season's salary. If Holden comes by he will be able to add further to those types of questions.

The "signing bonus" in SPC's past the first year in reality is just a payment schedule for the year. In makes no difference for ordinary course buy-outs that I can tell.

It would make things odd IF in the rare situation a player with a say July 1st payment got bought out in the second buyout window (which is late July/early August). The second buyout window only opens if a team has two or more players elect arbitration and go to arbitration in the off-season. As far as I know that has never happened.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Fleury has a NMC. Why would he waive it to come to Winnipeg? If he's smart he'll force the Pens to buy him out, pocket the buyout money, and then sign as a UFA with whichever team he prefers.

Perrault loves the peg. St. Boniface!

 

[Whileee]

Perrault loves the peg. St. Boniface!

He could throw the goalies under the bus in both official languages...

 

[wpgallday1960]

I would bet Vegas takes Lowry over Perreault if they had the choice, but they won't. One of those two will be protected, and both will be if the Jets go 7-3-1. I think the Jets will try to get Enstrom to waive his NMC with the idea of trading one if their forwards to a team that has space to protect another forward. Extend Thorbs on a two way contract, expose Matthias, Thorbs, Stuart and Hutch.

I agree with the idea of getting Toby to waive his NMC, and then go 7-3-1. I don't think there is any way McPhee takes an aging smallish Dman at 5.75M who is UFA in 1 year. I would be livid as a LV fan if McPhee did that.

Protect F: Schiefele, Wheeler, Little, Perrault, Lowry, Armia, Copp
Protect D: Buff, Trouba, Myers
Protect G: Helleybuck

Probably lose Dano in that scenario, maybe Matthias.

Wouldn't be surprised if Chevy has a deal involving Dano already.

 

[Whileee]

I agree with the idea of getting Toby to waive his NMC, and then go 7-3-1. I don't think there is any way McPhee takes an aging smallish Dman at 5.75M who is UFA in 1 year. I would be livid as a LV fan if McPhee did that.

Protect F: Schiefele, Wheeler, Little, Perrault, Lowry, Armia, Copp
Protect D: Buff, Trouba, Myers
Protect G: Helleybuck

Probably lose Dano in that scenario, maybe Matthias.

Wouldn't be surprised if Chevy has a deal involving Dano already.

If you can protect 7 forwards, I think they should trade a player like Dano to a team that needs forwards and has protection room. That would be better asset management than letting a player like Dano go for free.