Which scenario do you prefer? Lottery Pick or Playoff spot?

[tunnelvision]

I have a question for ”lottery pick” voters. Would you rather see scenario A or B:


A:

top-3 pick in 2023 draft

All of our top-3 goalies finish the season with sv% under .900

KJ, Sillinger and Chinakhov have very similar seasons PPG-wise as last season. All play close to a full season in the NHL, they combine for 100 points. Sillinger is still too slow, fails to grow into a real top-6 C. Marchenko plays all year in Cleveland. Foudy or Bemstrom is seen as bust and gets traded for a late round draft pick.

Jenner is injured again and misses half of the season. Roslovic doesn’t know how to defend and can’t find chemistry with anyone.

Gavrikov or Werenski starts to show signs of declining. Bean and Boqvist are still weak, soft and almost completely useless in the top-6. Gudbranson is 4th best dman on the team. Blankenburg plays more like Scott Harrington than last year’s Blankenburg.


B:

Playoff berth = mid-round top pick

Elvis’ sv% is over .910

KJ scores 12G 45P, Sillinger 20G 50P+. Sillinger looks like a great top-6 C as 1C next to JG. 2 of Chinakhov, Marchenko, Foudy and Bemstrom solidify their spots in the top-9. Chinakhov or Marchenko stays in the AHL.

Roslovic defensive game gets a little better, he and Jenner are the middle-6 centers. Voracek starts to decline.

Bean or Boqvist looks actually stronger and improves enough to serve as a solid mid/bottom pair D. Blankenburg is top-4 D, Gudbranson does his job sufficiently well in bottom pair.

 

[stevo61]

I wonder how many posters here who were thrilled with the last two drafts would have voted for playoff berths and a quick exit during those seasons. I still am of the opinion that a better draft,position will help this team more in the long run.

We have a prospect pool built up now. I know its HF and draft picks > winning but eventually you need to start winning

 

[Monk]

I wonder how many posters here who were thrilled with the last two drafts would have voted for playoff berths and a quick exit during those seasons. I still am of the opinion that a better draft,position will help this team more in the long run.

Why would we want to have had a worse season if we were happy with the draft results nonetheless and didn't have to suck as hard?

 

[Viqsi]

I have a question for ”lottery pick” voters. Would you rather see scenario A or B:


A:

top-3 pick in 2023 draft

All of our top-3 goalies finish the season with sv% under .900

KJ, Sillinger and Chinakhov have very similar seasons PPG-wise as last season. All play close to a full season in the NHL, they combine for 100 points. Sillinger is still too slow, fails to grow into a real top-6 C. Marchenko plays all year in Cleveland. Foudy or Bemstrom is seen as bust and gets traded for a late round draft pick.

Jenner is injured again and misses half of the season. Roslovic doesn’t know how to defend and can’t find chemistry with anyone.

Gavrikov or Werenski starts to show signs of declining. Bean and Boqvist are still weak, soft and almost completely useless in the top-6. Gudbranson is 4th best dman on the team. Blankenburg plays more like Scott Harrington than last year’s Blankenburg.


B:

Playoff berth = mid-round top pick

Elvis’ sv% is over .910

KJ scores 12G 45P, Sillinger 20G 50P+. Sillinger looks like a great top-6 C as 1C next to JG. 2 of Chinakhov, Marchenko, Foudy and Bemstrom solidify their spots in the top-9. Chinakhov or Marchenko stays in the AHL.

Roslovic defensive game gets a little better, he and Jenner are the middle-6 centers. Voracek starts to decline.

Bean or Boqvist looks actually stronger and improves enough to serve as a solid mid/bottom pair D. Blankenburg is top-4 D, Gudbranson does his job sufficiently well in bottom pair.

This. There are a lot of knock-on effects that come from being bad enough to have a lottery pick.

 

[Xoggz22]

See for clarification, which was asked for and offered above.

Yes, I didn't read through the posts prior to my initial post. I still would have voted the same since I'm "no tank" guy but, hell, if we're in the lottery (top 2 in my eyes), we need to be really bad and I simply don't want that. I know others due and that's cool, just not a way I can go.

 

[Xoggz22]

I wonder how many posters here who were thrilled with the last two drafts would have voted for playoff berths and a quick exit during those seasons. I still am of the opinion that a better draft,position will help this team more in the long run.

As the official "no tank" guy, I would have voted for playoffs... That's not to be confused with moving assets at a deadline because we're not going to make the playoffs. Burn it down in that case.

 

[db2011]

Yeah because I haven't read enough ridicule towards the Jackets and JG already.

There's a lot of real estate between the two options. What's the threshold in the 1-12 pick when the playoffs are desirable outcome? 6? 8?

A problem with this question is how much it relies a statistical improbability of winning the lottery, which seems implied.

I'd rather the playoffs up until maybe pick 3 or 4.

 

[Cowumbus]

We have a prospect pool built up now. I know its HF and draft picks > winning but eventually you need to start winning

Rushing it to become a “playoff team” that loses round 1 <<<<<<< building a contender through the draft.

I have a question for ”lottery pick” voters. Would you rather see scenario A or B:


A:

top-3 pick in 2023 draft

All of our top-3 goalies finish the season with sv% under .900

KJ, Sillinger and Chinakhov have very similar seasons PPG-wise as last season. All play close to a full season in the NHL, they combine for 100 points. Sillinger is still too slow, fails to grow into a real top-6 C. Marchenko plays all year in Cleveland. Foudy or Bemstrom is seen as bust and gets traded for a late round draft pick.

Jenner is injured again and misses half of the season. Roslovic doesn’t know how to defend and can’t find chemistry with anyone.

Gavrikov or Werenski starts to show signs of declining. Bean and Boqvist are still weak, soft and almost completely useless in the top-6. Gudbranson is 4th best dman on the team. Blankenburg plays more like Scott Harrington than last year’s Blankenburg.


B:

Playoff berth = mid-round top pick

Elvis’ sv% is over .910

KJ scores 12G 45P, Sillinger 20G 50P+. Sillinger looks like a great top-6 C as 1C next to JG. 2 of Chinakhov, Marchenko, Foudy and Bemstrom solidify their spots in the top-9. Chinakhov or Marchenko stays in the AHL.

Roslovic defensive game gets a little better, he and Jenner are the middle-6 centers. Voracek starts to decline.

Bean or Boqvist looks actually stronger and improves enough to serve as a solid mid/bottom pair D. Blankenburg is top-4 D, Gudbranson does his job sufficiently well in bottom pair.

Ask yourself, which is more likely?

 

[alphafox]

I have a question for ”lottery pick” voters. Would you rather see scenario A or B:


A:

top-3 pick in 2023 draft

All of our top-3 goalies finish the season with sv% under .900

KJ, Sillinger and Chinakhov have very similar seasons PPG-wise as last season. All play close to a full season in the NHL, they combine for 100 points. Sillinger is still too slow, fails to grow into a real top-6 C. Marchenko plays all year in Cleveland. Foudy or Bemstrom is seen as bust and gets traded for a late round draft pick.

Jenner is injured again and misses half of the season. Roslovic doesn’t know how to defend and can’t find chemistry with anyone.

Gavrikov or Werenski starts to show signs of declining. Bean and Boqvist are still weak, soft and almost completely useless in the top-6. Gudbranson is 4th best dman on the team. Blankenburg plays more like Scott Harrington than last year’s Blankenburg.


B:

Playoff berth = mid-round top pick

Elvis’ sv% is over .910

KJ scores 12G 45P, Sillinger 20G 50P+. Sillinger looks like a great top-6 C as 1C next to JG. 2 of Chinakhov, Marchenko, Foudy and Bemstrom solidify their spots in the top-9. Chinakhov or Marchenko stays in the AHL.

Roslovic defensive game gets a little better, he and Jenner are the middle-6 centers. Voracek starts to decline.

Bean or Boqvist looks actually stronger and improves enough to serve as a solid mid/bottom pair D. Blankenburg is top-4 D, Gudbranson does his job sufficiently well in bottom pair.

Based on what you outline it's definitely B for me. Lack of development (or regression) from core pieces is much worse. In my view the high additional pick is the capstone on what we are building and could catapult us into elite status for a decade, but all of that means nothing if the foundation isn't as strong as we think it is. The real challenge for me is what happens in scenario C where there is steady progress from key pieces but structural problems on D and out of our Top 6 keep us from reaching our potential (which I think is more realistic). I think I prefer Scenario C because that is a roster that is easily "fixable" with a high pick and assets to trade.

Scenario C:

Pick between 8th OA

KJ scores 12G 45P, Sillinger 20G 50P+. Sillinger looks like a a 1C next to JG and Laine. KJ appears capable of driving a line from the Wing. Chinakov can't elevate his game any further. Marchenko plays all year in Cleveland but starts to dominate at the end of the year. Two of Texier, Foudy and Bemstrom go bust and we have to trade to get assets as best we can.

Boqvist looks actually stronger and improves to a legit Top 4D D. Gudbranson proves worthy of his contract on the bottom pair. Gavrikov starts to show signs of declining quickly while Bean is still weak, soft and almost completely useless in the top-6. Jiricek Is a monster in Europe wire to wire and is ready to step into the Top 6 while Mateychuck is still 2 years away and Ceulemans stalls out in development.

Elvis’ sv% is over .900

 

[BB88]

Rushing it to become a “playoff team” that loses round 1 <<<<<<< building a contender through the draft.


Ask yourself, which is more likely?

How are they rushing it?

Jarmo won’t do any short term moves, everything he does and will do will be for longterm.

They were 10th last year in the East, added the best player out of any team in the East and Sillinger, Johnson and Boqvist should make a bigger impact. As they are older and more experienced.

Taking a step back would mean your best young players weren’t able to take the next step and you think a better pick by a little would make it worth it?
Why if the team is supposed to be build via draft?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I wonder how many posters here who were thrilled with the last two drafts would have voted for playoff berths and a quick exit during those seasons. I still am of the opinion that a better draft,position will help this team more in the long run.

So one choice should always lock you into the same choice? Is there a point at which people are allowed to not want the high draft pick specifically because of its connotations about the standings? Is it possible people are happy with the past two drafts but in spite or and not because of the record/standings?

 

[tunnelvision]

Ask yourself, which is more likely?

I did that, and the answer was "I don't know".

It's ok if you don't want to answer. I was just trying to find out what kind of "cost" would've been justifiable for you to get that top pick, you know, solely from a player developmental standpoint. In other words: how much our future core players would be allowed to suck in that lottery pick scenario before you say "ok, now that playoff scenario sounds better than this".

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I have learned from here that the best and only way to build through the draft is through first or second overall picks. Maybe third counts too sometimes

Picks 5-12 though? They don’t count as serious building blocks.

Also former top 3 overall picks count sometimes but not every time.

And we also get mad about trading mid round picks for depth

 

[Monk]

I have learned from here that the best and only way to build through the draft is through first or second overall picks. Maybe third counts too sometimes

Picks 5-12 though? They don’t count as serious building blocks.

Also former top 3 overall picks count sometimes but not every time.

I wonder which "tank for top 3 picks" posters are the same as the "jarmo sucks at drafting" posters, if any

 

[majormajor]

Rushing it to become a “playoff team” that loses round 1 <<<<<<< building a contender through the draft.

What would constitute "rushing it" to you? I don't think any of us are advocating moving futures for temporary success. We want to see the considerable talent we already have take a step and elevate the team to the next level.

I'd also say, that if anything, the Blue Jackets are the type of rebuilding team that should move faster. They never aged out like the Wings and Devils did, they were one of the youngest clubs to begin with and were just forced into a retool by certain key players wanting to be in specific cities. They've also had as many good first rounders now in the last two drafts as some rebuilding clubs have in the last four or five drafts.

 

[Cowumbus]

I have learned from here that the best and only way to build through the draft is through first or second overall picks. Maybe third counts too sometimes

Picks 5-12 though? They don’t count as serious building blocks.

Also former top 3 overall picks count sometimes but not every time.

And we also get mad about trading mid round picks for depth

I’ve learned that after 20 years of being a middling team, people are still wanting to be a middling team by “just making” the playoffs.

How far do you expect to get without a 1C? Show me a team that has won without a #1 center. Guess where you draft those guys? Guess how many franchise C are in 2023..

What would constitute "rushing it" to you? I don't think any of us are advocating moving futures for temporary success. We want to see the considerable talent we already have take a step and elevate the team to the next level.

Trading future picks and prospects to the point where the team has improved enough to be a bubble team is rushing it.

So do I, but they aren’t doing that without help (this year).

I'd also say, that if anything, the Blue Jackets are the type of rebuilding team that should move faster. They never aged out like the Wings and Devils did, they were one of the youngest clubs to begin with and were just forced into a retool by certain key players wanting to be in specific cities. They've also had as many good first rounders now in the last two drafts as some rebuilding clubs have in the last four or five drafts.

I said when we were a playoff team that it wasn’t good enough. The young core of that team (Z, Jones, Bjork) was good enough to eventually one day be a “veteran” core for a contender. In order for that to happen though you need your young talent to be your best players - we are not there yet. Werenskis/Bjorkstrands/Laines can’t be the best players on your roster.
Gaudreau helps but IMO, not enough (right now) to make moves to push for the playoffs.

Would I rather make the playoffs than finish 12th, yes. Would I rather pick top3 in 2023 and keep this roster going forward instead of trading away people to make the playoffs? Yes.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I’ve learned that after 20 years of being a middling team, people are still wanting to be a middling team by “just making” the playoffs.

How far do you expect to get without a 1C? Show me a team that has won without a #1 center.


Trading future picks and prospects to the point where the team has improved enough to be a bubble team is rushing it.

So do I, but they aren’t doing that without help (this year).

I said when we were a playoff team that it wasn’t good enough. The young core of that team (Z, Jones, Bjork) was good enough to eventually be a “veteran” core for a contender. In order for that to happen though you need your young talent to be your best players - we are not there yet.

The worst 2nd line center of the last 7 or so Cup winners is probably Brayden Schenn. And the only top line guy who wasn't drafted by a Cup winning team was Ryan O'Reilly (acquired via trade) on the same Blues team as Schenn, interestingly enough.

-Avs: MacKinnon and Kadri (but for four playoff games)
-Lightning: Point and Stamkos
-Lightning: Point and Stamkos, thought he missed almost the entirety of that playoff run, so some combination of Cirelli/Gourde
-Blues: O'Reilly & Schenn
-Capitals: Kuztensov & Backstrom (both 70+ point guys that season and more than a point per game in the playoffs)
-Pens: Crosby & Malkin
-Pens: Crosby & Malkin

I don't see any combination of Jenner/Roslovic/Sillinger being remotely close to any of those duos.

 

[stevo61]

Im super pumped to have the 12th best lottery odds, lose the lottery and then watch a top 1C fall to us just so we can complete our rebuild.
Thats basically what we are banking on here

 

[Cowumbus]

Im super pumped to have the 12th best lottery odds, lose the lottery and then watch a top 1C fall to us just so we can complete our rebuild.
Thats basically what we are banking on here

How many times do I have to say that if it’s top 3 pick vs playoffs, I take the pick.

If it’s playoffs vs 12OA, playoffs.

The wording of the thread made it unclear what EspenK was referring to.

 

[Viqsi]

As the official "no tank" guy, I would have voted for playoffs... That's not to be confused with moving assets at a deadline because we're not going to make the playoffs. Burn it down in that case.

Official? I would have thought my profanity-filled rants on the subject would have given me that status, but, okay. Continue fighting the good fight, then.

* * *​

Rushing it to become a “playoff team” that loses round 1 <<<<<<< building a contender through the draft.

Your logical fallacy is strawman

You misrepresented someone's argument to make it easier to attack.

yourlogicalfallacyis.com

By and large we're not advocating reckless moves for a playoff push any more than you're advocating for stripping things down to the studs. (Well, at least, most of us aren't; personally, I'm going to eviscerate the next person who starts going on about how we should totally trade for JT Miller now.)

 

[stevo61]

How many times do I have to say that if it’s top 3 pick vs playoffs, I take the pick.

If it’s playoffs vs 12OA, playoffs.

The wording of the thread made it unclear what EspenK was referring to.

yes but he clarified within the thread but we are still dancing around that and arguing about the interpretation of Espen's question when he said he meant finished with 12th or so odds so the question becomes playoffs or 2.5% lottery chance. Basically do we want to rerun last season or get better

 

[BB88]

I’ve learned that after 20 years of being a middling team, people are still wanting to be a middling team by “just making” the playoffs.

How far do you expect to get without a 1C? Show me a team that has won without a #1 center. Guess where you draft those guys? Guess how many franchise C are in 2023..


Trading future picks and prospects to the point where the team has improved enough to be a bubble team is rushing it.

So do I, but they aren’t doing that without help (this year).

I said when we were a playoff team that it wasn’t good enough. The young core of that team (Z, Jones, Bjork) was good enough to eventually one day be a “veteran” core for a contender. In order for that to happen though you need your young talent to be your best players - we are not there yet. Werenskis/Bjorkstrands/Laines can’t be the best players on your roster.
Gaudreau helps but IMO, not enough (right now) to make moves to push for the playoffs.

Would I rather make the playoffs than finish 12th, yes. Would I rather pick top3 in 2023 and keep this roster going forward instead of trading away people to make the playoffs? Yes.

How do you know you don’t have a 1C?
You just drafted a kid 5th overall.

& if there’s one thing with Jarmo he’s not afraid to make trades to try to address holes on the roster. RoR was traded, Zib was traded, JT Miller has been on the trade block, Eichel got traded.

Why do you think it would be better for you lonterm that your prospects/young playerd would take a step back instead of a step forward?
As you say you are build via draft fan, so why would you want your top draft picks to fail in order to land a better pick?


You’d seriously need to hit rock bottom to have a shot at an elite/ franchise prospect next draft

 

[Cowumbus]

Official? I would have thought my profanity-filled rants on the subject would have given me that status, but, okay. Continue fighting the good fight, then.

* * *​

Your logical fallacy is strawman

You misrepresented someone's argument to make it easier to attack.

yourlogicalfallacyis.com

By and large we're not advocating reckless moves for a playoff push any more than you're advocating for stripping things down to the studs. (Well, at least, most of us aren't; personally, I'm going to eviscerate the next person who starts going on about how we should totally trade for JT Miller now.)

will you ever stop with this bullshit about stripping it down to the studs?
Nobody is saying that.

 

[Viqsi]

will you ever stop with this bullshit about stripping it down to the studs?
Nobody is saying that.

...
...
...
...of course nobody is saying that, that was my point.

 

[Cowumbus]

How do you know you don’t have a 1C?
You just drafted a kid 5th overall.

Because he has played 0 NHL games at center, or even in the NCAA. Seeing is believing.

& if there’s one thing with Jarmo he’s not afraid to make trades to try to address holes on the roster. RoR was traded, Zib was traded, JT Miller has been on the trade block, Eichel got traded.

That’s the scary part.

Why do you think it would be better for you lonterm that your prospects/young playerd would take a step back instead of a step forward?

They can take a step forward in the AHL.

As you say you are build via draft fan, so why would you want your top draft picks to fail in order to land a better pick?

They can have success in the AHL, much like Buffalo is doing now - or Werenski and Bjorkstrand did back in the day.

You’d seriously need to hit rock bottom to have a shot at an elite/ franchise prospect next draft

No. But you don’t need rock bottom to get there.