Which scenario do you prefer? Lottery Pick or Playoff spot?

[NotWendell]

This team finished 20 points out of the playoffs. They added Gaudreau, Gudbranson and Johnson, probably lost Nyquist and Bemstrom. Then maybe will add Marchenko.

You think they are 20 points (25%) better?

No. It's the defense that lost us many of those games last year. We haven't improved it enough for the upcoming season.

 

[Cowumbus]

It's 10 victories with the team which was the second young, it's defense was nursery school (only Werenski and Gavrikov had 100 and more games in the start of the season), Boqvist played 52 games, Bean 67 games, Werenski 68 games, Texier 36 games, Laine 56 games.
Of course after return they couldn't play good immediately.

The team went 11-7 after regulation last year too. That was 6th best for Pts%. Not sure they do that again.

 

[MissADD]

This team finished 20 points out of the playoffs. They added Gaudreau, Gudbranson and Johnson, probably lost Nyquist and Bemstrom. Then maybe will add Marchenko.

You think they are 20 points (25%) better?

No I don't, but the choice was lottery pick or playoff spot. Based off where I think Jackets would finish, they wouldn't have a chance to draft Bedard, so I said playoff spot.

 

[Ippenator]

This team finished 20 points out of the playoffs. They added Gaudreau, Gudbranson and Johnson, probably lost Nyquist and Bemstrom. Then maybe will add Marchenko.

You think they are 20 points (25%) better?

Why not? At the same time at least Washington and Pittsburgh have become clearly weaker, and Philly is a complete mess (ok, Torts might even help there for a while, but the roster is just bloody awful!). It also depends a lot what kind of season the Columbus goalies will have? Elvis and Korpi pretty much failed last season, but even if either of them bounce back or even both do it, it could get Columbus a lot more points.

 

[Cowumbus]

Why not? At the same time at least Washington and Pittsburgh have become clearly weaker, and Philly is a complete mess (ok, Torts might even help there for a while, but the roster is just bloody awful!). It also depends a lot what kind of season the Columbus goalies will have? Elvis and Korpi pretty much failed last season, but even if either of them bounce back or even both do it, it could get Columbus a lot more points.

CBJ are guaranteed to be worse than Carolina and the Rangers. The Islanders finished higher in the standings last year (and had a down year by their accounts). The Penguins still have too much talent on the roster not to be a playoff team. As of now, maybe Washington falls, but if they get Kadri to replace Backstrom they are right back to where they were last year.
The Devils got better this off-season, Detroit is more competitive as well as the Senators. Not to mention, I’m not convinced the Atlantic won’t be sending 5 teams to the playoffs.

 

[Ippenator]

CBJ are guaranteed to be worse than Carolina and the Rangers. The Islanders finished higher in the standings last year (and had a down year by their accounts). The Penguins still have too much talent on the roster not to be a playoff team. As of now, maybe Washington falls, but if they get Kadri to replace Backstrom they are right back to where they were last year.
The Devils got better this off-season, Detroit is more competitive as well as the Senators. Not to mention, I’m not convinced the Atlantic won’t be sending 5 teams to the playoffs.

I can’t disagree about your comments about all those teams. But even despite of that I wouldn’t completely rule out playoffs chances for Columbus - especially if the goalies have a bounceback season. At least I don’t see the situation this bad…

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

I'd rather get the high pick. Can't see next season's team winning the cup even if they make the playoffs

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

This team finished 20 points out of the playoffs. They added Gaudreau, Gudbranson and Johnson, probably lost Nyquist and Bemstrom. Then maybe will add Marchenko.

You think they are 20 points (25%) better?

Depends on health. If we get a realtively healthy season out of our most important players, I think a 25% increase could be achieved.

 

[LJ7]

If we make the playoffs that means our NHL readyish prospects and roster in general are good which would mean better things for our future than drafting late lotto.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

Not singling you out, but I feel that this is a common feeling around these boards and I just think that’s flat out wrong.

CBJ top prospects:
1 Johnson #1 LW/C
2 Sillinger #1b/2 C
3 Jiricek #1 RHD
4 Ceulemans #3 RHD
5 Mateychuk #3 LHD
6 Tarasov #1 G
7 Marchenko #2 RW
8 Boqvist #4 RHD
9 Chinakhov #2/3 LW
10 Del Bel Belluz #2/3 C

But Buffalo for example has:
1 Dahlin #1 LHD
2 Power #1 LHD
3 Quinn #1 RW
4 Cozens #1b/2 C
5 Savoie #1 RW
6 Peterka #1/2 RW
7 Ostlund #2 C
8 Rosen #2/3 LW
9 Johnson #2/3 LW
10 Portillo #1b G
11 Kulic #2/3 C

Where, Peterka for example is probably ranked 4th on our list. Next year Buffalo has 4 picks in the first 2 rounds again. Idk I think the CBJ cupboards aren’t really stocked at all…

To the second Bolded part: I really hope not.

I get it, and no offense taken. My counterpoint is that this breakdown of only looking at prospect pools sort of discounts the young core players that are barely or not yet entering their prime like Laine, Werenski, Gavrikov, Texier, Bean, Peeke, Blankenburg, Roslovic, Merzlikins, Foudy, Bemstrom… depending where you want to put the age/experience cutoff. But it’s a group that’s young and deep with some high end ability that will compliment the prospect pool.

There are only 2-3 players on the team whose play we should reasonably expect to decline over the next two or three seasons.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

1000% lottery pick. Win that lottery and you’re looking at deep playoff runs for a decade. Or sneak into the playoffs and never get out of first round (probably).

 

[KJ Dangler]

Lottery pick .. easy answer … let the young kids play and develop

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm torn

Adding Gudbranson and Gaudreau does NOT mean that this "reload" is done. It's a fantastic step forward, one we didn't see coming, and one that speeds up the "reload" even further than we thought imaginable. However, we still have holes and extreme youth on defense. We still have questions in net, and we still have very young and inexperienced forwards in key positions. The reload isn't over.

This entire situation reminds me so much of the NY Rangers rebuild when they added Panarin. It took them one more year of struggling/missing the playoffs before they ascended into the title contender they are now. I know some people will fight me on that, and say their run was fluky, but I don't agree.

Personally I would probably say playoffs. Why? Well, I enjoy watching my team in the playoffs. But at the same time that is still not what I am expecting. I think we'll be a bubble-ish team and miss and likely draft around the same spot we did this year (12th) before we then start going up into contention.

We have to get experience down the middle and our back end. We have to find which players are going to be the building blocks to go with Gaudreau, Werenski, Sillinger, and Johnson. And we have to find out if Elvis is the guy.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Even JG alluded to this during some interviews post-signing. He isn’t the last piece. He gets us closer to the overall goal, but, the work is not close to done. It would highly behoove this team to have a high lottery pick again, and playing the kids a lot.

 

[tunnelvision]

I think lottery pick could be a better outcome than 1st round exit, but ONLY IF we'd be able to do it with at least 80% of the Jackets fans here NOT thinking that:

- our team sucks,
- our top prospects suck,
- our coaches suck,
- our goalies suck,
- our drafting sucks,
- our player development sucks,
OR THAT
- our FO sucks.

Since I don't see that as a realistic scenario, as of now I'm leaning more towards the other poll choice.

 

[stevo61]

Just to add context to the draft lottery lets pretend the Jackets finish exactly where they did last year with 12th best lottery odds. The team can move as high as 2nd overall and only has a 2.5% chance to do so.
The playoffs option means significant growth from the kids and obviously Gaudreau was a major success in year 1. I like the way that sounds more than 2.5 odds. Making the playoffs before we get a boost from our stud defensive prospects would be ahead of schedule and pretty amazing in my opinion

 

[behemolari]

Listen everyone, when 115pts players sign to your team you stop talking about winning lottery.

 

[Cowumbus]

Just to add context to the draft lottery lets pretend the Jackets finish exactly where they did last year with 12th best lottery odds. The team can move as high as 2nd overall and only has a 2.5% chance to do so.
The playoffs option means significant growth from the kids and obviously Gaudreau was a major success in year 1. I like the way that sounds more than 2.5 odds. Making the playoffs before we get a boost from our stud defensive prospects would be ahead of schedule and pretty amazing in my opinion

Lottery pick means top3 in the draft. If you finish 3rd to last there is a 30% chance you move up in draft order, or stay the same.

Obviously you’d rather be in the playoffs than picking 12th…

Picking 11-16 consistently is the worst thing a franchise can do. You either need to make the playoffs, or pick much lower.

 

[stevo61]

Lottery pick means top3 in the draft. If you finish 3rd to last there is a 30% chance you move up in draft order, or stay the same.

Obviously you’d rather be in the playoffs than picking 12th…

Picking 11-16 consistently is the worst thing a franchise can do. You either need to make the playoffs, or pick much lower.

Not with how it works now. Every pick outside the playoffs is technically a lottery pick but you need to be 11th or worse to have a chance at 1

 

[majormajor]

Lottery pick means top3 in the draft. If you finish 3rd to last there is a 30% chance you move up in draft order, or stay the same.

Obviously you’d rather be in the playoffs than picking 12th…

Probably explains some of the confusion in this thread. For me a lottery pick is like a lottery ticket, before you know if you've won.

Picking 11-16 consistently is the worst thing a franchise can do. You either need to make the playoffs, or pick much lower.

Eh, if you draft well enough it is better to have a better team. Boston did better competing and drafting McAvoy and Pastrnak than Buffalo did sucking and taking Reinhart and Nylander those same years. I'm getting tired of the overly simplistic thinking about this, there are so many things that orgs have to get right to build a winner.

 

[OldGoaltender]

Listen everyone, when 115pts players sign to your team you stop talking about winning lottery.

Exactly. This team needs to be a contender this year.

 

[Cowumbus]

Not with how it works now. Every pick outside the playoffs is technically a lottery pick but you need to be 11th or worse to have a chance at 1

Yes I get that

Only the first 2 picks have a lottery for them, thus though are the lottery picks. If you finish dead last, the lowest you pick is 3rd.

 

[Cowumbus]

Eh, if you draft well enough it is better to have a better team.

Why should I have any confidence in Jarmo drafting outside the top 10? He has not gotten anyone close to Pasta/McAvoy/Bennett

Boston did better competing and drafting McAvoy and Pastrnak than Buffalo did sucking and taking Reinhart and Nylander those same years. I'm getting tired of the overly simplistic thinking about this, there are so many things that orgs have to get right to build a winner.

Boston had guys left over from their 2011 cup team… that’s why their team was better. Buffalo had one pick in the top 5 during that time and it was Sam Bennett. Every top 5 pick Buffalo has had has been a hit.

 

[DougKnowsBest]

Lottery pick is when your team is in the draft lottery and not the playoffs

I choose the playoffs

 

[Cowumbus]

Lottery pick is when your team is in the draft lottery and not the playoffs

I choose the playoffs

Lol

So then why even have “lottery pick” in the title?
If the question is make the playoffs vs not?