Speculation: Where will Erik Karlsson be traded to?

[DFC]

I don't think there is much risk in Tampa dealing quality assets for EK considering that's where he wants to be - or at least it's near the top of his list. Trading for him should guarantee that he locks up assuming they're willing to pay him what he wants.

I know it's easy to say "I'll just wait until July 1st" but a lot could change by then. Maybe he falls in love with the city he's ultimately traded to and decides to stay. Maybe Ottawa decides to deal him at the deadline instead, but before the deadline comes he changes his mind and decides to stay. Maybe someone else leapfrogs Tampa on his destination ranking by the time July 1st rolls around. There are a lot of variables. IMO it just comes down to how highly you covet Karlsson. If you think he puts you over the top, you make the deal.

The only thing I disagree with is the "pay him whatever he wants." TB just doesn't do that. If it's true that Karlsson insists on being the highest paid D in the game, regardless of destination and tax situation (I don't think it's a coincidence that most of the teams rumored to be involved are No Tax states), then it becomes less likely that TB was a major player in this. I don't think we can offer him much more than 10, but our 10 is worth more than most teams', obviously.

 

[DFC]

Tampa's definitely up there, and could offer up better pieces (on average) than anything Dallas can realistically put together, IMO.

However, do the Sens want Karlsson staying in the Atlantic, or would it be better to send him out west?

As bad as the Sens' dwindling season ticket holders feel now, imagine knowing that their best player was just shipped to a division rival and will likely be beating their team senseless multiple times a season.

If Ottawa were smart, which often they're not, that would be considered a good thing. That ship isn't getting righted without a proper tank.

 

[Dog]

Colorado or Tampa. Is Vegas willing to sacrifice future over Karlsson? Be kind of neat to see some team you never would expect trade for him.

 

[KingsHockey24]

LA for Phaneuf

 

[Boxscore]

Calling Karlsson to Tampa for Foote, Cirelli, Koekkoek, 2nd round in 2019, 1st round in 2020, 3rd round in 2020.

 

[DFC]

Calling Karlsson to Tampa for Foote, Cirelli, Koekkoek, 2nd round in 2019, 1st round in 2020, 3rd round in 2020.

I feel like that's way too much for an unsigned Karlsson, and a little quantity-over-quality for a signed Karlsson.

 

[Boxscore]

I feel like that's way too much for an unsigned Karlsson, and a little quantity-over-quality for a signed Karlsson.

I still think Tampa is the ONLY team Karlsson is willing to extend with today. So Yzerman needs to beat "unsigned" offers, which this does.

Edit: if push comes to shove, swap Koekkoek with Raddysh.

 

[God King Fudge]

Yeah. Tampa isn't getting Karlsson without giving Sergachev.

 

[Fogelhund]

I don't see him being moved at this point. Think he stays in OTT and tests FA.

You are going to want to watch the video, with Melnyk talking about the team this coming year. It's pretty much a given, that Karlsson, and a few others are moved.

There is this too...

 

[Boxscore]

Yeah. Tampa isn't getting Karlsson without giving Sergachev.

You're nuts. Tampa isn't trading Sergachev and Dallas isn't trading Heiskanen. Vegas would probably include Brannstrom, but he is neither Sergachev or Heiskanen level. Forget about Dallas or San Jose offering a young D as good as Cal Foote - not happening. Unless Philly or Colorado is trading for Karlsson, Foote is likely the best young D being offered.

Sergachev was a mainstay in Tampa last season, he will not be moved IMO - he will anchor the 2nd pair with an aging McDonagh. Tampa offering Sergachev instead of Foote is only bidding against themselves. Yzerman doesn't bid against himself.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You're nuts. Tampa isn't trading Sergachev and Dallas isn't trading Heiskanen. Vegas would probably include Brannstrom, but he is neither Sergachev or Heiskanen level. Forget about Dallas or San Jose offering a young D as good as Cal Foote - not happening. Unless Philly or Colorado is trading for Karlsson, Foote is likely the best young D being offered.

Ryan Merkley is better than Cal Foote.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

If he's willing to sign an extension, I don't think anyone could top what the Devils would offer if Shero is sufficiently motivated.

I don't think it's happening for Tampa. It would have happened by now, but no third party wants Callahan at what Yzerman was willing to add as a sweetener, which I think wasn't much. Tampa would also have to move out one of Palat, Killorn or Johnson and all of them have NTCs and they all might be starting to decline anyway, especially Johnson.

 

[Boxscore]

Ryan Merkley is better than Cal Foote.

Try again. Merkley has great skills but he's a headcase with maturity issues who is 3 years away from anything, IF he pans out and doesn't pull an Anthony DeAngelo. He's also like 4-11, 140 pounds. Foote is a beast in an NHL body and is a way better two-way defenseman than Merkley is. "Two-way" and "defense" being the key words.

Not to mention, Ottawa has already said they are building around "character" moving forward. That doesn't jive with bringing in a one-dimensional D who dropped in the draft because of his character issues.

 

[DFC]

I still think Tampa is the ONLY team Karlsson is willing to extend with today. So Yzerman needs to beat "unsigned" offers, which this does.

Edit: if push comes to shove, swap Koekkoek with Raddysh.

I think our trump card is Sergachev. I think we can, and would, use him to beat any other offer. If other offers are low, we could also come up with a quantity-based deal that wouldn't really hurt us, and still beat out other offers. Guys like Mathieu Joseph, Mitchell Stephens. Both look like NHLers. One of them should crack our squad this year, but won't be heavily relied upon. I think there are a number of creative proposals we can make to beat out other proposals, but it all depends on Ottawa's willingness to deal inside the division, and also whether or not they insist on Ryan being part of the deal.

 

[DFC]

If he's willing to sign an extension, I don't think anyone could top what the Devils would offer if Shero is sufficiently motivated.

I don't think it's happening for Tampa. It would have happened by now, but no third party wants Callahan at what Yzerman was willing to add as a sweetener, which I think wasn't much. Tampa would also have to move out one of Palat, Killorn or Johnson and all of them have NTCs and they all might be starting to decline anyway, especially Johnson.

Insiders on both boards have said the deal was done, and then Ottawa's management pulled out. Wasn't about the third team, if you believe them. I know our guy has a better track record than any official insider, when it comes to TB. That said, no official insider seems to have a clue what goes on behind TB's door.

 

[AndreRoy]

I don't think there is much risk in Tampa dealing quality assets for EK considering that's where he wants to be - or at least it's near the top of his list. Trading for him should guarantee that he locks up assuming they're willing to pay him what he wants.

I know it's easy to say "I'll just wait until July 1st" but a lot could change by then. Maybe he falls in love with the city he's ultimately traded to and decides to stay. Maybe Ottawa decides to deal him at the deadline instead, but before the deadline comes he changes his mind and decides to stay. Maybe someone else leapfrogs Tampa on his destination ranking by the time July 1st rolls around. There are a lot of variables. IMO it just comes down to how highly you covet Karlsson. If you think he puts you over the top, you make the deal.

That’s just the thing: I don’t covet Karlsson. Sure, I’d love to have him on the team if there were no such thing as a salary cap, but we simply don’t have the cap space to afford his next deal without gutting our depth which we should absolutely not do. We already have one of the best top fours in the league next season with Hedman-Stralman and McDonagh-Sergachev (on a side note remember when everyone was saying that McDonagh was the piece that guaranteed us a Cup - much as they’re saying about Karlsson now?); what we need isn’t yet another 1D but forwards who can put the puck in the net and stand up to physical play. After next season we’re already probably looking at letting Stralman, Girardi, and Coburn walk and trading Miller in order to keep everyone else we already have; replacing two very good ELC defensemen (both with top pairing potential, one of whom will already be in our top four next season) with Karlsson’s massive contract would take us from “tight but manageable cap situation” to “cap hell” in a hurry while not even filling a major weakness.

On top of that I have serious concerns about Karlsson’s future given that ankle injury. Having suffered a similar injury myself I am very familiar with the longterm effects and I fully expect him to decline sooner rather than later; fitting his next contract into our cap situation is already a shaky proposition before you consider the likelihood that it becomes an albatross in the near future.

In short the short term upgrade from Sergachev to Karlsson isn’t worth the cap cost or the likely long term downgrade. Foote’s at least a more reasonable proposition as he has yet to prove anything at the NHL level but I still don’t see how we fit EK’s next contract, nor do I want any part of it unless it’s for significantly less money and term than he is likely to settle for.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I feel like san jose will come out of no where and get it done.... but I think a team like Colorado would be a great move by them.

 

[DFC]

You're nuts. Tampa isn't trading Sergachev and Dallas isn't trading Heiskanen. Vegas would probably include Brannstrom, but he is neither Sergachev or Heiskanen level. Forget about Dallas or San Jose offering a young D as good as Cal Foote - not happening. Unless Philly or Colorado is trading for Karlsson, Foote is likely the best young D being offered.

Sergachev was a mainstay in Tampa last season, he will not be moved IMO - he will anchor the 2nd pair with an aging McDonagh. Tampa offering Sergachev instead of Foote is only bidding against themselves. Yzerman doesn't bid against himself.

I totally believe we would deal Sergachev if, and only if, we 100% believed Karlsson was staying long-term. You're right that we wouldn't do it if we didn't absolutely have to (and the other bids are going to dictate the price on this, not Ottawa), but, if push comes to shove, I think we put Serg on the table.

I also believe that Serg was the return for the almost-done deal in July. And an Ottawa HFB insider--make of that what you will--said Serg was "100%" the return. Our own guy said the deal was done, and Ottawa's management, which I assume means Melnyk, nixed it at the last second.

I think it's likely that Yzerman's just watching the situation right now, trusting that Ottawa will present him an offer he has to beat before they pull the trigger.

 

[Boxscore]

I think our trump card is Sergachev. I think we can, and would, use him to beat any other offer.

Sergachev is the ultimate trump card. But if he was offered at any point, a deal would have been done IMO. Unless Provorov, McAvoy or Werenski were offered, Sergachev could be the best, young D pup with NHL experience in the league. There is 0% risk with Sergachev - he is a proven commodity, genuine article. He's massive in size, has all the tools, and makes very little money. You don't trade that for a 28 year old who is going to command about 11 mil in salary cap... as great as Karlsson is. It's the same reason Dallas is not moving Heiskanen... and he's not even proven like Sergachev.

The main course in any deal will likely be a D along the lines of Foote, Brannstrom, Theodore, Merkley, Sanheim, etc. There will be nobody as young, good and proven as Sergachev. Tampa would only be forced to deal Sergachev if they didn't have an ace prospect in Foote to offer. Plus, Cirelli is as good as almost any forward prospect that would be offered IMO. So Tampa has the D side and the F side chips to dangle.

 

[KPower]

I think it's Vegas because McPhee will give up a lot more for Karlsson than Yzerman will.

 

[God King Fudge]

You're nuts. Tampa isn't trading Sergachev and Dallas isn't trading Heiskanen. Vegas would probably include Brannstrom, but he is neither Sergachev or Heiskanen level. Forget about Dallas or San Jose offering a young D as good as Cal Foote - not happening. Unless Philly or Colorado is trading for Karlsson, Foote is likely the best young D being offered.

Sergachev was a mainstay in Tampa last season, he will not be moved IMO - he will anchor the 2nd pair with an aging McDonagh. Tampa offering Sergachev instead of Foote is only bidding against themselves. Yzerman doesn't bid against himself.

I mean trust me, if Tampa can get EK without dipping into their existing roster, I'll be ecstatic. I don't imagine TB dealing for EK without an extension in place and I think an extended EK will require a Sergachev.

I do think TB has the ability to give several really good pieces to OTT (Foote, Raddysh, Katchouk, Joseph, etc) but is OTT gonna want the one big piece or several good pieces?

 

[AndreRoy]

Calling Karlsson to Tampa for Foote, Cirelli, Koekkoek, 2nd round in 2019, 1st round in 2020, 3rd round in 2020...

I still think Tampa is the ONLY team Karlsson is willing to extend with today. So Yzerman needs to beat "unsigned" offers, which this does.

Edit: if push comes to shove, swap Koekkoek with Raddysh.

No, swap Koekkoek with Dotchin (a RD rather than a LD) and take out Cirelli. If by some miracle we managed to clear the cap space to afford EK’s next deal it would be by trading our high-priced forwards; we can’t do that and also give away the cheap forwards that would be replacing them. Foote, a 1st, a 2nd, a 3rd, and Dotchin is already a ton of value for a guy with only a year left on his deal.

 

[Cmac66]

I totally believe we would deal Sergachev if, and only if, we 100% believed Karlsson was staying long-term. You're right that we wouldn't do it if we didn't absolutely have to (and the other bids are going to dictate the price on this, not Ottawa), but, if push comes to shove, I think we put Serg on the table.

I also believe that Serg was the return for the almost-done deal in July. And an Ottawa HFB insider--make of that what you will--said Serg was "100%" the return. Our own guy said the deal was done, and Ottawa's management, which I assume means Melnyk, nixed it at the last second.

I think it's likely that Yzerman's just watching the situation right now, trusting that Ottawa will present him an offer he has to beat before they pull the trigger.

If that was the deal would have meant that Yzerman would have turned Drouin into Karlsson. Wasn't there a insider from there end which said that we wouldn't include sergachev in a deal just before done the deal with the rangers. If so does that offer still stand from us or are we just going to lower are offer if we do manage to get a deal done.

 

[AndreRoy]

I think it's Vegas because McPhee will give up a lot more for Karlsson than Yzerman will.

I agree. Vegas has more cap space and a significantly greater need for a 1D than Tampa, plus they’re not in the same conference much less the same division. Vegas makes infinitely more sense than Tampa.

 

[Claypool]

I’ll say St. Louis.