Speculation: When is the end of the Hawks' Cup window?

[ChiHawks10]

20+ games? Starters start 45+ games. Lock season not withstanding.

Might want to check your stats, I think you filters are wrong.

30+ games used.
11/12 - Not a top 5 Season.
12/13 - 5th in save% and 1st in GAA.
13/14 - 17th in save% and 7th in GAA.
14/15 - 6th in save% and 11th in GAA.
15/16 - 5th in save% and 18th in GAA.

Agreed. Why pull stats for goalies with 20+ games, MM? Any starter in the NHL plays at least 45+ and most play 50+. That is just a touch misleading... You can't include backup stats in with the starters... they play half the games as the starters, if not less.

 

[Marotte Marauder]

20+ games? Starters start 45+ games. Lock season not withstanding.

Might want to check your stats, I think you filters are wrong.

30+ games used.
11/12 - Not a top 5 Season - Crow was bad.
12/13 - 5th in save% and 1st in GAA. - 4th in SA
13/14 - 17th in save% and 7th in GAA. - 4th in SA
14/15 - 6th in save% and 11th in GAA. - 22nd in SA
15/16 - 5th in save% and 18th in GAA. - 24th in SA

For the past 4 seasons using >40 games at your suggestion. CC average in 9th place for % and 12th place for GAA. Not a Top 5 goalie.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I think you can make a case for top 5, but I'm not sure I'd go that high. But he's certainly top 10. Anywhere in the 5-10 range I'm good with.

 

[ChiHawks10]

For the past 4 seasons using >40 games at your suggestion. CC average in 9th place for % and 12th place for GAA. Not a Top 5 goalie.

The entire argument for Crow has been he's a top 10 goalie. From me. From BK. From all but 2 or 3 posters. Most of us put him in the 5-8 range. Which would be accurate.

 

[BK]

For the past 4 seasons using >40 games at your suggestion. CC average in 9th place for % and 12th place for GAA. Not a Top 5 goalie.

Look at it by season. Bad seasons happen. Summing everything like that is not really how to look at it.

Did I say top 5 somewhere? I have always been a 5-10 guys (really 5-8). So if I said he is a top 5 goalie, I would have to say I misspoke.

NVM - I figured out what you pulled.

 

[Marotte Marauder]

I used >30 games in order to include 12/13, CC's best season. Likely his only Top 5 season.

Taking the totality of his seasons is indeed how to rank him. Bad seasons happen of course and they happen to all the starters.

You did mention that CC had Top 5 seasons regardless of shots against. I do not think that is correct.

 

[BK]

I used >30 games in order to include 12/13, CC's best season. Likely his only Top 5 season.

Taking the totality of his seasons is indeed how to rank him. Bad seasons happen of course and they happen to all the starters.

You did mention that CC had Top 5 seasons regardless of shots against. I do not think that is correct.

I showed you stats that prove its is correct. 15/16 and 14/15 would be the cases for sure (6th and 4th in Veznia voting helps confirm that).

Summing is fine for total rankings but that is not really what we are doing. The best way to me is to find rank by season then find the average. Again, I have always said he is 5-8.

Having top 5 seasons and being top 5 is much different.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I feel like this would be a good point to mention that so far (small sample) the Hawks are giving up the 3rd most shots against and Crow has the 3rd best sv%.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I feel like this would be a good point to mention that so far (small sample) the Hawks are giving up the 3rd most shots against and Crow has the 3rd best sv%.

And I think he's only below two backups.

Edit: Yep - Nilsson and Neuvirth. Both have played 3 games to Crow's 8. So he's got the best SV% in the league out of the starters, and 3rd best GAA out of the starters. This is a top 5 season so far, although in a relatively small sample size.

He's also 3rd for starters in GAA, only behind Rinne and Bobrovsky.

Backups in front of him for GAA - Neuvirth, Nilsson, Kuemper, Subban. All have only played 3 games.

 

[Blackhawks]

Why would I be angry because some random stranger on the web thinks Crawford sucks? Has nothing to do with anger.

And you still have yet to post a single stat or anything other than your delusional opinion to back up your claim that Crawford is an average goalie, at best. And you never will, because there's nothing that actually proves your point.

As for the bolded... you realize this is like... every goalie ever in the history of hockey, right? Although I wouldn't expect someone who started watching the sport 5 years ago to understand that.

"Started watching the sport 5 years ago" you are hands down the most clueless poster in here, I signed up on these homer infested boards 2 years before you did, what a braniac you are lol

 

[Hawkaholic]

Pot, meet kettle

 

[ChiHawks10]

"Started watching the sport 5 years ago" you are hands down the most clueless poster in here, I signed up on these homer infested boards 2 years before you did, what a braniac you are lol

To the bolded.

Signing up on these boards has nothing do with your absolute lack of hockey knowledge/understanding, but I'm not surprised that you would think it does. Until you learn something about the sport, you'll just be another fan in the UC screaming SHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT from the 300 level, and getting up and walking around during gameplay, wondering why everyone is screaming at you for it.

The sad thing is... you'd think in 10 years on here you might have actually learned something from people. But.... nope.
On that whole anger thing, again, though... You mad bro? Cus it seems like you're mad.

 

[JaegerDice]

"Started watching the sport 5 years ago" you are hands down the most clueless poster in here, I signed up on these homer infested boards 2 years before you did, what a braniac you are lol

....I cannot fathom somebody making this argument without a shred of self awareness or irony.

But...

 

[Matt Ravlich]

For the past 4 seasons using >40 games at your suggestion. CC average in 9th place for % and 12th place for GAA. Not a Top 5 goalie.

When a goalie plays for a strong POSSESSION/CUP FAVORITE team, goalie stats mean next to nothing. CC never passed the EYE TEST for moi, but I only been watching Hawks for over 50 years, so wtf do I know? He had some good stints, hot streaks but has NEVER showed consistency. THAT is the mark of a great goalie. If CC played for an average team, he would be at or close to the BOTTOM in the stats dept. Just like he was the last half of 2016-17 season,after his surgery. Don't forget he was/IS playing for a Cup Contender. This aint Rocket Surgery is it? Out of 31 goalies, he is probably around the 10-15th best range. (being generous) Just above average but way too many games.... CLOWN SHOES, as they say. I said SAME about Huet at the BEGINNING, and got roasted, HATED, then banned for it. We know what happened to him.

 

[Matt Ravlich]

I wouldn't have Crawford in my Top 5. More that 6-10 range.
I don't get the Price Hype while Bobrovsky has been better the last 14 monts and Holtby being equal. Murray great in the POs and Rinne is still a huge reason why the Preds are as good as they are. That's 5 out of my head without even thinking about it longer.

I don't complain about Crawford or his contract, but I see what Darling has done for dirt cheap and I see what Forsberg has done for dirt cheap. I see how much Murray has gotten on his Cup wins and holy **** you can get great value out of goalies.

U R being very generous with Cristobal Colander like any Hawk fan would be. Me, I call em as I SEE em. I never liked him from near the start bc of his continuous INCONSISTENCY. Hawks were winning Cups tho with their superior TALENT up front. That day is OVAH. CC will have his 2 Cups to boast about but a few of us know that the Hawks of the 2010+ era should have won at least 5 Cups, maybe 6-7. I see Q and CC as the 2 TOP reasons why we only won 3. There are other intangibles of course, like Kane playing only when he wants to, and Toews taking a DUMP the past 2 seasons. Right now, this team is on it's way down, but it's been a nice ride for 8 years, being a contender, and a WINNER 3 times.

 

[ColdSteel2]

He's stopping 93% of the shots. Who gives a damn about any of the context. He's 7th is SV%. And if you are right about the team being the reason, then there is no reason Forsberg shouldn't be doing just as well or better. I love Crawford but would definitely move him if Forsberg outperforms him. Otherwise, what have you got? There's A LOT we could legitimately complain about other than the goaltending right now.

 

[Matt Ravlich]

My gut says 2015 was it, but I'd be very happy to be proven wrong.

Me too almost verbatim. My gut sez NO, but my heart wants to say YES. I waited almost 50 years for a Cup, so can I be blamed for wearing rose-colored glasses?

 

[Matt Ravlich]

He's stopping 93% of the shots. Who gives a damn about any of the context. He's 7th is SV%. And if you are right about the team being the reason, then there is no reason Forsberg shouldn't be doing just as well or better. I love Crawford but would definitely move him if Forsberg outperforms him. Otherwise, what have you got? There's A LOT we could legitimately complain about other than the goaltending right now.

CC sucked so bad last year, it will take one FULL consistent season to make up for it. Darling outplayed CC and got SAT for his efforts. That really pissed me off, and a main reason, but not the ONLY reason why I am not a Q fan. Both Q and CC hurt this team. THAT is not OK with me. Q should have been let go after 2014.

 

[Matt Ravlich]

Too late. Stan had the possibility to do just that last Spring but we all know what happened ..... Falling in love with your players is fatal for NHL management and that's what we are witnessing.

Yup, and where did we go with Pan for 2 years? OUT the 1st round, that's where. He is NOT character/playoff type guy. He is a flaky/flashy talent that disappears when the going gets tough. Saad has 2 Cups already bc he is a SC playoff type player. He has GRIT, Pan has little of that.

 

[ColdSteel2]

CC sucked so bad last year, it will take one FULL consistent season to make up for it. Darling outplayed CC and got SAT for his efforts. That really pissed me off, and a main reason, but not the ONLY reason why I am not a Q fan. Both Q and CC hurt this team. THAT is not OK with me. Q should have been let go after 2014.

Yeah, that's fair. He was much wosre after the injury. Right now he is delivering, but I understand you wanting to see it for a full season. Expecting him to fail and him doing it are two different things. In 2015, Darling had the net and coughed it up back to Crawford. That was probably his one chance to be starter for good. Crawford was the key against the Lightning, especially shutting the door on them in the last game. That gave him carte blanche. Well, now, with the realities of the cap and the state of the team, he's going to need to be top 10 in SV% to justify his spot. And then, you have to keep an eye on Forsberg and see how he does too. If it comes to a point where Corey slips from what he's been doing, this team will start losing more often and Forsberg will have his in to get more starts. The goalies are keeping this team above water. Crawford/Darling were the only reason the Hawks finished 1st last year. It looked like a 4th or 5th place team. Crawford didn't have anything to do with the loss to Nashville. They scored 3 goals the whole series. Only prime Hasek could have carried that team to 6 or 7 games. For that reason, we should give him the benefit of the doubt on last year being injury related. I would agree that it was obvious something was wrong with Crawford after the injury, whether it was rust or coming back too soon. He looked and played worse. Maybe Darling should have been given a second chance to prove himself. You would have thought so but Q never put him in against Nashville. Team had zero life, he could have thrown him in to start game 4. He was on fire while Crawford was hurt, really went for it to prove himself. Who knows, maybe he comes in hot and drags them long enough to get through. It was like they already had their mind made up and didn't want to upset the apple cart. I too was intrigued by the idea of keeping Darling and saving money doing so. The 4.2M cap hit was disconcerting. However, he could have taken less here. Crawford just needs to keep doing exactly what he's doing at this point.

 

[Enyaw]

The window is slowly sliding down ... I here taps gently blowing in the background

Playoffs are 1 thing ..... Stanley Cup Winner contender in another

 

[chrispw1]

I would like to believe there is hope it hasn't closed fully yet but it will take work to keep it open, just look at Pittsburgh, as recently as December 2015 I imagine quite a few people believed their window was all but closed then they get back to back cups. If 2015 was the last cup I can be happy with three and very nearly four and accept nothing lasts forever, I think some were expecting a 90s Bulls like run of dominance which given the difference in the way the games are played and hard cap system just wasn't realistic

 

[LDF]

I would like to believe there is hope it hasn't closed fully yet but it will take work to keep it open, just look at Pittsburgh, as recently as December 2015 I imagine quite a few people believed their window was all but closed then they get back to back cups. If 2015 was the last cup I can be happy with three and very nearly four and accept nothing lasts forever, I think some were expecting a 90s Bulls like run of dominance which given the difference in the way the games are played and hard cap system just wasn't realistic

well i am one who thought that this team, as long as the forward were kept intact, could have made noise along the lines of the Bulls of the 90's and the great hockey teams of the 80's.

i will never be satisfy with this end results, if the final SC was indeed the last one. it was through mismanagement that i lay the blame. oh well i have spouted all this before.

 

[LDF]

The window is slowly sliding down ... I here taps gently blowing in the background

Playoffs are 1 thing ..... Stanley Cup Winner contender in another

i really like the vivid description here.

 

[LordKOTL]

The entire argument for Crow has been he's a top 10 goalie. From me. From BK. From all but 2 or 3 posters. Most of us put him in the 5-8 range. Which would be accurate.

Top 10, yes. Top 5--maybe not.

Here's the thing, the more shots goalies face, the more their numbers regress to their personal mean over a career time-span. Bad games, good games, softies, unreal saves, etc. all even out. It's like flipping a coin, the more times you do it the more it regresses to 50% heads/50% tails. In the case of a goalie, their SV% regresses to their ability.

As aforementioned on this board, the average *right now* for all goalies since the end of the 2005 lockout (Cap era) is .911 859874 shots on goal total, 783207 saves have been made, and 76667 goals have been scored. Crawford is .918. That's hardly league average. That's top-10 in the starter bracket. Not elite (Career .920+ would be), but that's damned good.

Taking on goalies who have seen more that 8000 shots in the cap era (cap era stats only--the top 38 of 256 goalies who have seen the ice in the cap era), Crawford ranks 9 behind Lundqvist, Price, Thomas, Bobrovsky, Vokun, Schneider, Holtby, and Rask. Beneath him is Lou, Rinne, Anderson, Halak, Quick, Dubnyk, Howard, Varlamov, Miller, Backstrom, Hiller, Smith, Elliott, Fleury, Brodeur, Bryzgalov, Kiprusoff, Niemi, Gigurere, Lehtonen, Steve Mason, Ward, Nabokov, Roloson, Pavelec, Budaj, Theodore, Turco, and Khabi.

This is big data over the course of 12+ seasons. It's not a fluke here. Crawford is damned solid, worth his paycheck, and while not elite is about as close as you can get. If you want proven better in net, you'd have to pay a lot more. If you're going with unproven, you're going to be paying more eventually, and the team D is not able to carry a netminder and hasn't been able to do so in nearly 5 seasons.

Let's also not forget Darling has been very milquetoast with a .897 thus far in Carolina behind a much stingier D.

Let's also realize that GAA is a bad goalie indicator. A goalie with a very respectable .923 SV% in a game can be either a good 2.00GAA seeing 26 shots or a bad 3.00GAA seeing 39 shots, the difference there is the difference between 2010/2013 Blackhawks D and 2016/2017/2018 Blackhawks D, and that can be the difference between winning and losing.

As for the window...I don't know if it's closed because I don't know if Toews, Kane, Keith, & Seabs are showing us the best they can do over the course of a season or not. If they can play 16-28 games at the level of the 1st 2 games, yes, they can win another cup. If they are unable to, then the window is closed, locked, and shuttered tight. The question I have is if they are willing to play at such a high level.