Speculation: when do canucks hit bottom?

[mathonwy]

Weak willed toady he may be, but his trades were still made by him. Aquilini may have set the direction but he made the moves.

Lest us forget... Jimbo made the moves
and Trevor ok'ed them.

 

[mathonwy]

You are offfered a lot of money to take a job, they want you to compete? You try and compete.

And

Bart
Clendening
Dorsett
Eriksson
Etem
Higgins
McCann
McMillan
Prust
Sbisa
Sutter
Vey
Virtanen
Vrbata
Weber

Say he failed miserably right?

 

[F A N]

The thing that I find particularly questionable about the Benning being handcuffed narrative is that the mandate to compete right away and make the playoffs was obvious from the moment that Benning was hired-- he couldn't have possibly been blind-sighted by it and end up stuck in a bad situation that he didn't want to be in.

The fact that he actively agreed to sign with the team knowing that this was the direction that ownership expected the team to face is sufficient reason to believe that Benning didn't vehemently disagree with the idea of competing now, and in fact thought it was at least a somewhat sensible one.

This is a good enough reason to assume this for now, and there seems to be no reason to think otherwise.

GMs with job security generally do not agree to jobs where they're told ahead of time that they're going to be doing things the opposite of the way that they want to do them. If that was the situation and he agreed to it, he would be dumber than we thought.

There simply was not a long enough period of uncertainty about the team's direction for the idea of him being handcuffed to make any sense. It's been compete compete compete from the moment he was hired.

You are offfered a lot of money to take a job, they want you to compete? You try and compete. I'm sure he was told that when he was hired. So, in real world would you turn down a job that wanted you to do that? This is a weird mindset to say turn down a high paying job because of ownerships desire to compete. This isn't la la land where you pick and chose head GM positions if there are no other ones available.

I've said this before and some don't agree with this. If I am Benning, I go into the interview with at least 2 plans. The first plan would be my ideal plan (for example an accumulate draft picks type rebuild), my second plan would be the rebuild on the fly plan that Benning used in his first three seasons and selling the idea that with a few moves the team can get back to the playoffs next season because the core is still good enough. How many of us here go into an interview without trying to say what you think the interviewer wants to here? Sure, if you really think there is only one plan that will work and that's your one and only plan that by all means wait another year. But otherwise, why wouldn't he believe in his ability to rebuild on the fly? Gillis felt the team was a few bold moves away from winning the Stanley Cup (he even thought seriously about trading the Sedins).

There are some who think that well Benning shouldn't have taken the job if he's not allowed to do what he wants to do. Well get real. You can wait for that perfect opportunity to come along where you are given 100% autonomy (and that might not last, just ask Gillis) or you do what most people do. You try to accomplish what your boss wants you to do.

As for being handcuffed, he's handcuffed if his boss wants him to have a competitive enough team to make the playoffs. Take the Kesler trade. Do you think it's a coincidence that both Gillis and Benning REQUIRED a young established player (preferably C) to replace Kesler?

 

[orcatown]

I'd say we've got a ways to go before really bottoming out.

- two of the best three offensive players will be gone soon

- one of your two best defense men in Edler is aging and has seemingly some chronic physical problems

- team let's Tanev get bang around to the point where is shelf life seems limited

- young guys, in most cases, a few years away from being any kind of meaningful factors. The only ones that can be expected to make any kind of contributions in the near term are Virtanen (and don't hold your breath on that), Boeser (who is still probably a year away) and Goldobin who may be ready. I'd say the approximate arrival dates for the others are:

Pettersson - 2020 -2021 season

Kind - 2020 - 2021 season

Dahlin - 2019 - 2020

Gadjovich - 2020 - 2021

Joulevi - 2018 - 2019

Gaudette - 2019 - 2020

Demko - 2019 - 2020

And this is probably a best case scenario with the likelihood some may not pan out or will take longer than this.

I'd say if any of the rest of the prospects make it, it would be a surprise.

So in the meanwhile we are left with a bunch of plugs like Chaput, Megna, Gaunce, Dorsett, Boucher , (and you could off their play throw Eriksson and Sutter in with this bunch) filling the holes up front and some pick-ups like Holm on the backend.

During this transition from the older fading players to the young people coming into the line up, there will a lot of misery.

If by 2019 we have managed to draft well and the young players turn out then we may stop descending. But it is still going to be a long way back up from even there.

 

[F A N]

I'd say we've got a ways to go before really bottoming out.

I guess it depends on the definition of "bottoming out." From a standings standpoint, we were in playoff position for half the season and then finished 2nd last with an epic tank. So if it's from a pure standings standpoint, I think we have hit rock bottom. From a competitive standpoint, I think there is still room since we're still relying on the Sedins next season and Horvat to take the next step, and Markstrom to be a #1. We can again finish bottom 3 next season but unlike the previous two seasons, it can get real ugly from the get go.

With that said, the reason why I said the bottom could have been this past season or next season is because I expect to have more young players in place or at least in the pipeline. Pettersson won't play next season or perhaps even 2 years from now, but at least we have him coming up in the pipeline. Boeser looks like the real deal, and if he isn't a full time NHL player by the 2nd half of next season, I expect him to make a Horvat like jump in his true sophomore pro year. In goal, I expect Demko to continue his progression and be an upper level goaltender in the AHL where we would seriously consider whether he is ready to assume an NHL backup role the following season. And of course there's also Juolevi and Gaudette and the guys we drafted this year.

Of course, prospects more often disappoint than impress, but it isn't like two seasons ago and last season where another bottom finish is expected AND help is far away. So next season, if the team does finish near the bottom of the standings again, the team will once again get a high pick. The team should be on the upswing despite the Sedins being near the end of their careers.

 

[LeftCoast]

The departure / retirement of the Sedins will obviously be a watershed moment in terms of team culture, leadership and history, but whether they retire at the end of their current contracts or re-sign again for 1 year, I don't think it will have a huge impact on the competitive performance of the team.

I love the Sedins, but let's be honest, they are steadily regressing to replacement level. By 2018 or 2019, losing the Sedins will simply open up ice time and PP roles for other players, who given the additional ice time, will increase their production proportionately. Henrick is the bigger loss because right now we don't have another #2 Centre. However in 1 or 2 years, one of Pettersson and/or Gaudette should be able to step into the line up, and if not, we can use the $14M in cap space for a stop gap player who can.

 

[Hit the post]

Henrick is the bigger loss because right now we don't have another #2 Centre.

Horvat is pretty much one (if not, pretty close). Problem is, we don't have a #1 center (granted Hank isn't really one anymore - but at least having two arguable #2's is better than having a #2 & a nothing special #3 (then a whole lot of blech centers).

 

[LeftCoast]

Horvat is pretty much one (if not, pretty close). Problem is, we don't have a #1 center (granted Hank isn't really one anymore - but at least having two arguable #2's is better than having a #2 & a nothing special #3 (then a whole lot of blech centers).

Well that illustrates Henrick's greatest value.

Currently, after 3 seasons Horvat has developed on a trajectory similar to guys like Mark Scheifele or Ryan Johansen ( a little bit behind Johansen), both of whom are #1 Centres who might be "elite" #2 Cs on a championship team. If he is going to take the next step, he will need a guy like Henrik who can shoulder some of the load. If Horvat has to take all of the tough match ups, run the #1 PP unit, PK, take the majority of defensive zone and offensive zone face offs and take on a much greater leadership role with the team, and do it all this year, it could hurt his development.

 

[F A N]

Well that illustrates Henrick's greatest value.

Currently, after 3 seasons Horvat has developed on a trajectory similar to guys like Mark Scheifele or Ryan Johansen ( a little bit behind Johansen), both of whom are #1 Centres who might be "elite" #2 Cs on a championship team. If he is going to take the next step, he will need a guy like Henrik who can shoulder some of the load. If Horvat has to take all of the tough match ups, run the #1 PP unit, PK, take the majority of defensive zone and offensive zone face offs and take on a much greater leadership role with the team, and do it all this year, it could hurt his development.

I think it's pretty safe that that your concerns won't materialize, and least not intentionally. Sutter is still here and if healthy should at least split the PK duties. The Sedins look to be the focal point of the 1st PP unit once again. After next season, you would expect Horvat to be able to shoulder the load offensively.

 

[MS]

We will be in a long, long bottoming-out until Jim Benning is gone and replaced by a competent person making hockey decisions.

 

[Hit the post]

I think it's pretty safe that that your concerns won't materialize, and least not intentionally. Sutter is still here and if healthy should at least split the PK duties. The Sedins look to be the focal point of the 1st PP unit once again. After next season, you would expect Horvat to be able to shoulder the load offensively.

If Hank isn't here; I think it's safe to assume whoever GM is in charge will attempt to acquire another NHL center.

 

[Breakers]

Signing Del Zotto to contract that starts with the number 4, and has anything over 2 years would be a whole new level of Rock Bottom.

 

[PM]

We probably have a last place finish in the cards either this year, next, or the year after. When it's all said and done Benning's quick "retool" will be a 10+ year rebuild that could have been accomplished in 5 years or less with smart management and a consistent direction from the beginning.

 

[racerjoe]

Let's wallow in the muck for a few years collecting top five talent. JB has to hit on a couple elite guys in those years, doesn't he? Then we can climb back into the middle, like we (seemingly) have always done

He definitely missed on a few of them already...

We probably have a last place finish in the cards either this year, next, or the year after. When it's all said and done Benning's quick "retool" will be a 10+ year rebuild that could have been accomplished in 5 years or less with smart management and a consistent direction from the beginning.

I think with good management a retool was there.

I think with good management you just need to look at the leafs and say 3 years was possible...

I think you just need to look at what we have done and say it is going to be a long time.

 

[M2Beezy]

We probably have a last place finish in the cards either this year, next, or the year after. When it's all said and done Benning's quick "retool" will be a 10+ year rebuild that could have been accomplished in 5 years or less with smart management and a consistent direction from the beginning.

Yeah true its kinda sad that most people on this forum who are just fans have been calling for this for years but all the millionaires owners and managers didnt do what we all knew should of happend. Imagine if they actually started this after Tortorolla was canned. Go for Nylander and trade assets when they had worth before waiting til the BITTER END. I think we would have a lot of bright spots already in place if not for the close future. As of now we all know next year will be a DISASTER and most likely the following two years. Thats already 6 or 7 years in total. This is truly a disaster of a situation

 

[Virtanen2Horvat]

I think this is the year then guys like Boeser, Virtanen and Subban will come into the mix in the 19/20 season along with Dahlen. I think the team looks pretty good in the future with what we have picked.

Dahlen - Pettersson - Boeser (Top line)
Goldobin - Horvat - Lind (Secondary scoring)
Virtanen - Sutter - Lockwood (Energy/physical/offensive line)
Gadojvich - Gaudette - Granlund (Support line with physical)

Baertschi will probably get flushed out eventually by better scoring talent and good bottom six grinders/scorers. We are probably seeing a team like this in 2020/21.

The Canucks have to go for Brady Tkachuk next draft he is the next piece of the puzzle.

Dahlen - Pettersson - Boeser
Tkachuk - Horvat - Goldobin/Lind

Thats a pretty good top 6 for this team.

 

[thekenneth]

the canucks needed a full rebuild but with the sedins it wasnt possible. Erickson was a massive disapointment. comparing rosters I honestly think Vegas has a better team

 

[mathonwy]

the canucks needed a full rebuild but with the sedins it wasnt possible. Erickson was a massive disapointment. comparing rosters I honestly think Vegas has a better team

Well... glad that's sorted out. Ok guys that's a wrap.

 

[Bitz and Bites]

Until we have a bonafide top line that can replace the offence that the Sedins brought then we'll continue to stagnate pretty much where we are now.If/when Pettersson can step into the 1C role then the turnaround will really start but that's probably two years away at least.

I'm expecting a bit more offense with Gagner,Burmistrov and Boeser coming in and a likely bounce back season from Eriksson but the Sedins will likely continue to regress and Hansen and Burrows are gone.

Our defense and PK will be worse which will offset any gains in the GF department so we'll probably end up with a similar goal differential.
I think our goal tending will be about same but could easily be worse if Marky falters.

We will be playing in the worst division in the NHL which will help out in the points totals and prevent long losing streaks but we'll still be badly exposed when playing the stronger teams and if our goal tending can't bail us out this year,it could be a long season.

 

[denkiteki]

I voted last year since i actually think the roster going into this season is better than last. The Sedins likely will be better next season (if nothing else, not playing with Chaput/Megna for 1/4 of the season should help their production). A much needed coaching change since whatever WD was doing hasn't been working since his rookie year and of course we actually have some more depth this year.

Also doubt we'll lose as many players to injury this year as last year (tho i guess you never know). Plus the only forwards we're really losing are Burrows and Hansen (who was hurt for a good part of the season anyways) while we added Gagner, Boeser (assuming he makes the team) and like i mentioned, more depth (Goldobin, Burmistrove, hopefully a healthy Rodin, etc). Also Horvat, Baertschi being one year older helps. Eriksson likely won't be as bad as last year either (otherwise he'll be one of the worst contracts in the NHL going forward...).

On D, i think most would agree that Del Zotto is an upgrade over Sbisa. Losing Tryamkin hurts but a rookie Tryamkin wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire either. An older Stecher/Hutton should help make up for losing Tryamkin. Wiercioch is an interesting depth signing too and we added depth again with Holm

 

[Hit the post]

Also doubt we'll lose as many players to injury this year as last year (tho i guess you never know).

You forgot how many healthy D we had by the end for the 2011 Finals? One - (and that was Salo )

It's a curse.

 

[Trelane]

Rock bottom was last year. Should do a little better in the standings this season on account of:

-Sedins can't get worse, already replacement level 5 on 5
-Slight rebound from Eriksson
-PP improvement
-Tons of players in their prime or early 20s, with pain filled seasons 1-3 behind them
-More NHL quality depth at every position
-Conceivably have six 20 goal scorers (not including Hank and Gagner who should do better than .5 PPG)

Goaltending is the only area I can see being a little worse but that is system and overall D competence dependent and hard to predict.

Onwards and upwards.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Just saw TSN call us "Losers". Not sure how much lower we can go....

 

[me2]

Rock bottom was last year. Should do a little better in the standings this season on account of:

-Sedins can't get worse, already replacement level 5 on 5
-Slight rebound from Eriksson
-PP improvement
-Tons of players in their prime or early 20s, with pain filled seasons 1-3 behind them
-More NHL quality depth at every position
-Conceivably have six 20 goal scorers (not including Hank and Gagner who should do better than .5 PPG)

Goaltending is the only area I can see being a little worse but that is system and overall D competence dependent and hard to predict.

Onwards and upwards.

No franchise player for us at the draft. I guess that is good as they are expensive.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Rock bottom was last year. Should do a little better in the standings this season on account of:

-Sedins can't get worse, already replacement level 5 on 5
-Slight rebound from Eriksson
-PP improvement
-Tons of players in their prime or early 20s, with pain filled seasons 1-3 behind them
-More NHL quality depth at every position
-Conceivably have six 20 goal scorers (not including Hank and Gagner who should do better than .5 PPG)

Goaltending is the only area I can see being a little worse but that is system and overall D competence dependent and hard to predict.

Onwards and upwards.

The Sedins put up 50 points last year. They absolutely can get worse.

I would expect a slight rebound from Eriksson, though it's no guarantee.

Why will the PP improve? This is still a very bad team, with no offense coming from the defense.

Just because Benning has "filled the age gap" doesn't mean he's brought in good players. I wonder if this is finally the season people realize that there's more to a player than age, height, and weight?

There is more depth, but is it going to make a difference? We're without Hansen and Burrows which hurts us significantly defensively, and haven't replaced them. Expected regression to our goaltending, as well as Granlund, and the Sedins (age) won't help this team.

I don't think we'll be worse than Colorado because they're still an awful team, but we're a bottom 5 team.